Bluemour Discussion Thread IX

[Gethelred]

Think Shiel gets let off the chain with all GWS' other class mids. Id have him below those you mentioned

You'd tag Kelly in front of him, but I'm not sure why you'd even bother tagging a player in GWS's midfield.

I mean, you tag Kelly, Shiel tears you up. You tag Shiel, Kelly and Coniglio run wild. You tag Coniglio, Ward and Shiel and Kelly and Whitfield and...

You get the picture.

He's not having his career best year, that's for certain, but he's an amazing combination of able-to-keep-his-feet-regardless, excellent balk and sidestep and excellent disposal by foot, as well as a prolific ballwinner. The idea is to buy when the price is low - after a down year, potentially when out of contract but sometimes just after a down year - instead of waiting for him to turn it around. And he will turn it around.

The list cited is a good one, but there's a few players in there that are lucky to be in front of him...

 

[Metalcrusher]

You'd tag Kelly in front of him, but I'm not sure why you'd even bother tagging a player in GWS's midfield.

I mean, you tag Kelly, Shiel tears you up. You tag Shiel, Kelly and Coniglio run wild. You tag Coniglio, Ward and Shiel and Kelly and Whitfield and...

You get the picture.

He's not having his career best year, that's for certain, but he's an amazing combination of able-to-keep-his-feet-regardless, excellent balk and sidestep and excellent disposal by foot, as well as a prolific ballwinner. The idea is to buy when the price is low - after a down year, potentially when out of contract but sometimes just after a down year - instead of waiting for him to turn it around. And he will turn it around.

The list cited is a good one, but there's a few players in there that are lucky to be in front of him...

Wouldn't say prolific …. look at his numbers when Kelly is not in the side …

I pulled the stats up earlier … when Kelly was out for 6 weeks?? Had one solid game the rest were well below what most peoples idea of Shiel is.

Didn't get as far as to overlay any time Conigilio was out as well.

Reason I did that, was if he comes to Carlton he will definitely receive more attention than at GWS. Wanted to see objectively what his output would be …

Ed's stats stacked up WAY better. Considering at one point he was the midfield.

Stats were I think off hand Round 5 or 6 this year through to round 11 or 12 this year … so was a decent metric.

 

[Gethelred]

Wouldn't say prolific …. look at his numbers when Kelly is not in the side …

I'd argue that averaging 26+ disposals a match over the course of the last 4 years is pretty prolific.

 

[Metalcrusher]

I'd argue that averaging 26+ disposals a match over the course of the last 4 years is pretty prolific.

edited post with more info above Gred …. makes for interesting reading … as I said above I didn't overlay any Coniglio missing game times ...

 

[Gethelred]

edited post with more info above Gred …. makes for interesting reading … as I said above I didn't overlay any Coniglio missing game times ...

In the 6 games this season he played without Kelly, he had 23, 23, 31, 32, 22, and 24, for an average of 25.83; below his par over the last 4 years, but still above average over the course of his career.

My main reason to want to get him over sooner rather than later is that this really is a down season for him, yet he's equal second in the competition for score assists, and 4th in the comp for score assists per game; this despite being a midfielder rather than a hybrid.

We're crying out for that kind of help in the forward line.

I'm fine with trading for him this year, or waiting a year and trying to go FA, but I'd be very wary of waiting, purely because this is a down year for GWS. If they start having a decent run with injury - not good, just league average - they'll be top 2 all season, and Shiel will be considered a marquee player again.

 

[Metalcrusher]

In the 6 games this season he played without Kelly, he had 23, 23, 31, 32, 22, and 24, for an average of 25.83; below his par over the last 4 years, but still above average over the course of his career.

My main reason to want to get him over sooner rather than later is that this really is a down season for him, yet he's equal second in the competition for score assists, and 4th in the comp for score assists per game; this despite being a midfielder rather than a hybrid.

We're crying out for that kind of help in the forward line.

I'm fine with trading for him this year, or waiting a year and trying to go FA, but I'd be very wary of waiting, purely because this is a down year for GWS. If they start having a decent run with injury - not good, just league average - they'll be top 2 all season, and Shiel will be considered a marquee player again.

You need to dig deeper on the stats, apart from one game in that time he was average at best ….. for his standards set so far. Why? He gets rested quite a bit on interchange. Had to step up (apologies it was round 4 through 10) and played way more TOG. Also his disposal efficiency dropped off on those games. Might be drawing at straws, but I agree with some on here that yes he is a good player … but he rarely gets any meaningful attention when Coniglio, Kelly, Whitfield are all playing.

I just hope the average punter doesn't get suckered into a OMG he is a competition breaker …. because he isn't, solid yes. If you are talking inside mid …. he will never be a Cripps …. if you are talking outside … he will never be a Gaff. BTW have I mentioned Gaff is the same age as Shiel but a RFA this year

So exactly what type of player are we getting for Lukocious? A 25 soon to be 26 year old all rounder? Doesn't really impact the scoreboard either. Not saying he is NOT good … just saying he ain't a star either. Averages 76% this year TOG plays a lot less when the full midfield is in …. We will need him to play closer to 90% with our midfield. Averages this year at 4.4 total clearances per game (with elevated stoppage time, due to injuries).

What are we buying if we do? A chop out for Crippa on rotations?? Ed produces far better numbers. Not saying he won't contribute. But is it worth the punt right now V next year for a free hit?

Not sold at all.

 

[Malifice]

So your calling bluff on the clubs stated desire to recruit mature readymade players this off season ?

The club wants to for sure.

I've been saying for literally years now the plan was always to invest in the draft for 3 years and then transition into a mixed approach looking to get in Free agents to plug holes and add ready made class for a return to the top 8 in around about 2020/21.

That doesnt mean the club throws away pick 1 for 22 games from Dylan Shiel. They would be irresponsible to do so. The man is a Free agent next year.

 

[Malifice]

Having Shiel next year helps the whole midfield unit develop and by extension , the team.
Pick 1 for Shiel and Ian Hill every day of the week for me.

Simpson Weitering Jones
Docherty Marchbank Williamson
SPS Cripps O'Brien
Murphy Curnow Hill
Pickett McKay Silvagni

Kruezer Shiel Dow

Kennedy Fisher Curnow Cuningham

Backline depth
Plowman Macreadie Byrne Schu

Forward line depth
Kerr DeKonning Silvagni

Utility depth
Polson Garlett Lang

Add 2 best available mids at the draft this year with our 2nd rounders.

The interchange bench is of AFL quality midfield rotation for the first time in i don't know how long and not one single deckchair to be seen ...

Ill take the above list and add Shiel AND Lukosius. Plus whomever we trade out 2019 1st round pick for.

Its what it will look like 22 matches afterwards.

Next year we finish bottom 6 again. Thats a near certaintly. Get used to that idea. Thats with or without Shiel.

From 2020/21 onwards we should be challenging for the top 8.

We cant afford to sacrifice accuracy and thoroughness for speed.

 

[MileHigh]

Could pick 1 for Shiel and their 1st pick be an option? (pick 13 at this stage)

 

[Malifice]

Could pick 1 for Shiel and their 1st pick be an option? (pick 13 at this stage)

Thats a no from me.

I like Shiel and rate him and want him, but Im happy to wait 22 matches and get him free.

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Thats a no from me.

I like Shiel and rate him and want him, but Im happy to wait 22 matches and get him free.

SOS will add Shiel on his terms I agree.

 

[Teagueeee15]

You need to dig deeper on the stats, apart from one game in that time he was average at best ….. for his standards set so far. Why? He gets rested quite a bit on interchange. Had to step up (apologies it was round 4 through 10) and played way more TOG. Also his disposal efficiency dropped off on those games. Might be drawing at straws, but I agree with some on here that yes he is a good player … but he rarely gets any meaningful attention when Coniglio, Kelly, Whitfield are all playing.

I just hope the average punter doesn't get suckered into a OMG he is a competition breaker …. because he isn't, solid yes. If you are talking inside mid …. he will never be a Cripps …. if you are talking outside … he will never be a Gaff. BTW have I mentioned Gaff is the same age as Shiel but a RFA this year

So exactly what type of player are we getting for Lukocious? A 25 soon to be 26 year old all rounder? Doesn't really impact the scoreboard either. Not saying he is NOT good … just saying he ain't a star either. Averages 76% this year TOG plays a lot less when the full midfield is in …. We will need him to play closer to 90% with our midfield. Averages this year at 4.4 total clearances per game (with elevated stoppage time, due to injuries).

What are we buying if we do? A chop out for Crippa on rotations?? Ed produces far better numbers. Not saying he won't contribute. But is it worth the punt right now V next year for a free hit?

Not sold at all.

I agree with you that Shiel, while very good, isn’t in the top tier of players that you would use pick 1 as the centrepiece of a trade for. If you are giving up pick 1 for a guy going on 26, you want to be getting a perennial All-Australian/B&F winner like Chris Judd, or a guy who projects to be one with 10 or so years left (like Josh Kelly for example). Shiel is neither of these.

He’s managed to make the All-Australian side just once in his career and hasn’t yet won the GWS best and fairest award. Based on this years form and reading the Giants board, it seems unlikely he will get either of those awards this year. Last year when he was All-Australian and had his career best year, he still didn’t manage to crack the top 3 in their B&F (finished fourth).

 

[Arr0w]

When did the club say they're going to give up premium picks for quality players? Have you got a link?

Maybe this link?

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/c...h/news-story/b689a4e3e3d499e4e64f51b0dce3c8f1

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Not sure if you are purely going off stats or impact. I'd have him ahead of at least 10 of those guys and on par with another 6 or so.

No id choose those guys before him

 

[HereComesJuddy]

You'd tag Kelly in front of him, but I'm not sure why you'd even bother tagging a player in GWS's midfield.

I mean, you tag Kelly, Shiel tears you up. You tag Shiel, Kelly and Coniglio run wild. You tag Coniglio, Ward and Shiel and Kelly and Whitfield and...

You get the picture.

He's not having his career best year, that's for certain, but he's an amazing combination of able-to-keep-his-feet-regardless, excellent balk and sidestep and excellent disposal by foot, as well as a prolific ballwinner. The idea is to buy when the price is low - after a down year, potentially when out of contract but sometimes just after a down year - instead of waiting for him to turn it around. And he will turn it around.

The list cited is a good one, but there's a few players in there that are lucky to be in front of him...

I get the picture. And i dont rate him as high as you

 

[GapInIkonPark]

That article is behind a paywall.

Yes Mitch is the one. Don't think he's a requirement for us either tbh.

As for Brayshaw, it's hard to say what it would cost in terms of trades. We might offer up our 2019 1st with a pick coming back to us. His concussions are a concern which may drive his value down a bit.

Shiel and another high pick isn't going to happen. There's too many logical reasons for it not to.

I got the article by googling ‘Shiel Carlton’ and it appears for a while and then goes behind a paywall.

 

[Blue_Fusion]

Maybe this link?

https://www.news.com.au/sport/afl/c...h/news-story/b689a4e3e3d499e4e64f51b0dce3c8f1

thanks for that. Having read that, going by SOS's quotes he says every club would be open to trading a pick because you don't know what offers will come. really obvious stuff. He doesn't give anything away.

He didn't specifically say we'll be targetting ready made players with our top pick.

It was actually Paul Roos and Montagna saying we should do it.

 

[Arr0w]

thanks for that. Having read that, going by SOS's quotes he says every club would be open to trading a pick because you don't know what offers will come. really obvious stuff. He doesn't give anything away.

He didn't specifically say we'll be targetting ready made players with our top pick.

It was actually Paul Roos and Montagna saying we should do it.

??

Silvagni said the club would consider all of its trade and free agency options at the end of the season, including passing on its top pick for a contracted star such as Shiel.

Not that i agree, i would rather target FA, than using pick 1 in any deal for Shiel who is a free hit next year

 

[Blue_Fusion]

??

Silvagni said the club would consider all of its trade and free agency options at the end of the season, including passing on its top pick for a contracted star such as Shiel.

Not that i agree, i would rather target FA, than using pick 1 in any deal for Shiel who is a free hit next year

nope. dont let the article suck you in. Silvagni was never quoted to say "including passing on our top pick for a contracted star such as Shiel". They've added that part themselves.

 

[GapInIkonPark]

I agree with you that Shiel, while very good, isn’t in the top tier of players that you would use pick 1 as the centrepiece of a trade for. If you are giving up pick 1 for a guy going on 26, you want to be getting a perennial All-Australian/B&F winner like Chris Judd, or a guy who projects to be one with 10 or so years left (like Josh Kelly for example). Shiel is neither of these.

He’s managed to make the All-Australian side just once in his career and hasn’t yet won the GWS best and fairest award. Based on this years form and reading the Giants board, it seems unlikely he will get either of those awards this year. Last year when he was All-Australian and had his career best year, he still didn’t manage to crack the top 3 in their B&F (finished fourth).

Judd was not pick 1.
It was Picks 3, 20 and a young Josh Kennedy (a top 5 pick from a couple of years before) and we also got about pick 46 back (Armfield).
So if you base it on the Judd trade, we would get Shiel plus a high draft pick back and either another player or another pick.
I think 4th in the b&f with players like Kelly, Greene, Cameron, Ward, Scully, etc. all having good years last year is a fair effort.

 

[Soapy V]

I would be happy with Shiel or Kelly but Kelly is the one I want. Younger, better skills and more upside. Would be awesome outside Cripps Kennedy & Dow [emoji41]


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Arr0w]

nope. dont let the article suck you in. Silvagni was never quoted to say "including passing on our top pick for a contracted star such as Shiel". They've added that part themselves.

Blue i never get sucked in, i look at every scenario, post, on merit in terms of viability

Just because it doesn't include " " doesn't mean it is not viable, or wasn't said

If that was the case, any of rumours, especially from the reliable sources, would also be just that, their opinions

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

Btw Higgins is paying $12 for the brownlow with sportsbet. Shiel $150.

But yeah, i can see why you think Shiel is better... lol

15 rounds does not a career make.

 

[HBF]

I forgot Brayshaw and Tyson from Melbourne.

But of the ‘plenty’, who do you see is gettable and better than Shaw, O’Shea, Mullet, Graham, Kerridge, Lamb ... ?

I'd be going pretty hard for Brayshaw. The kid is a serious talent.

 

[Benaly28]

I'd be going pretty hard for Brayshaw. The kid is a serious talent.

Only problem is perhaps on going concussion issues.Has had a few in his time.