Analysis Inexperience watch

[WhiteLionFeva]

And injuries and umpires and new coach....

I’m sure we won’t be short on excuses

If the teams play to form and ladder position we won't win. No excuses required really.

 

[Lionheart182]

And injuries and umpires and new coach....

I’m sure we won’t be short on excuses

How about, they are a better team than us currently? Let's face it, if we win it's a pretty big upset.

 

[M Malice]

How about, they are a better team than us currently? Let's face it, if we win it's a pretty big upset.

Yep, next Saturday at the Gabba is the real clash of the Titans.

 

[Jivlain]

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 3
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 8
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Carlton 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Carlton 4
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 3

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 88.6 vs. Carlton 86.9 (= +1.7 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.7 vs. Carlton 24.9 (= -0.2 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 189cm vs. Carlton 187.2cm (= +1.8cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 89.3kg vs. Carlton 85.8kg (= +3.5kg on average)

 

[MSB ROYS]

How can the Blues have 5 players less than 75 kg? Also, goals per player is telling and a consequence of the Blue's ultra defensive mindset. Otherwise, pretty even.

 

[Jivlain]

How can the Blues have 5 players less than 75 kg? Also, goals per player is telling and a consequence of the Blue's ultra defensive mindset. Otherwise, pretty even.

In one of those testaments to "AFL clubs don't always keep these stats up to date", they've got Kade Simpson listed at 76kg on their website. Can't say I much believe that, but that's what they're claiming.

Fisher (72), Petrevksi-Seton (74), Wright (75) and Polson (76) are the others, some of whom it's vaguely more realistic of.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

View attachment 523010

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 3
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 8
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Carlton 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Carlton 4
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 3

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 88.6 vs. Carlton 86.9 (= +1.7 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.7 vs. Carlton 24.9 (= -0.2 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 189cm vs. Carlton 187.2cm (= +1.8cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 89.3kg vs. Carlton 85.8kg (= +3.5kg on average)

Thanks Jiv - I look forward to this post every week.

 

[Jivlain]

• (0 to 10 games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Hawthorn 2 vs. Brisbane 4
• 25 to 49 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Hawthorn 11 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Hawthorn 107.8 vs. Brisbane 89.6 (= +18.2 games on average)
• Average age - Hawthorn 26 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= +1.3 years on average)
• Average height - Hawthorn 186.1cm vs. Brisbane 189cm (= -2.9cm on average)
• Average weight - Hawthorn 85.6kg vs. Brisbane 89.3kg (= -3.7kg on average)

Hawthorn's clearances, marks, and contested possession numbers are so very very Hawthorn.

 

[jackess]

Great work Jivlain.

What would be interesting would be to compare how our average age and games planned has changed over the past few seasons.

Seems like our 100-199 games bracket has increased over that time. Having Mitch and Bundy fit probably helps.

 

[T Rick]

View attachment 526792

• (0 to 10 games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Hawthorn 2 vs. Brisbane 4
• 25 to 49 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Hawthorn 11 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Hawthorn 107.8 vs. Brisbane 89.6 (= +18.2 games on average)
• Average age - Hawthorn 26 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= +1.3 years on average)
• Average height - Hawthorn 186.1cm vs. Brisbane 189cm (= -2.9cm on average)
• Average weight - Hawthorn 85.6kg vs. Brisbane 89.3kg (= -3.7kg on average)

Hawthorn's clearances, marks, and contested possession numbers are so very very Hawthorn.

Love this post every week - well done Jivlain. Always seems a bit odd to me that we are more often younger than than the opposition but taller and heavier...a good sign for the future, I hope.

 

[Viceregal]

Love this post every week - well done Jivlain. Always seems a bit odd to me that we are more often younger than than the opposition but taller and heavier...a good sign for the future, I hope.

Agreed!

I have no idea re any of the graphs but the breakdown by games etc I like.

Interestingly enough (for me anyway) is that when I look at something and see that we are approximately equal or have an advantage I get a bit nervous that we won't live up to it ... maybe too many games where we used the too-young or too-inexperienced excuse for our bad behaviour on the field?

 

[Jivlain]

Recently with us winning a bunch people have taken to reposting the stats somewhat aggressively on the main board and/or other club boards. I don't personally particularly support this activity but if you feel the need to you should probably adjust them for any late outs. I'm not often going to update late outs especially when the games are starting 4:45am my time.

To adjust the averages, multiply the number by 22, subtract the player removed, add the player added, then divide by 22.

Here's the last three weeks with the actual final teams:

• (0 to 10 games - Fremantle 3 vs. Brisbane 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Fremantle 8 vs. Brisbane 4
• 25 to 49 games - Fremantle 3 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Fremantle 4 vs. Brisbane 6
• 100 to 199 games - Fremantle 6 vs. Brisbane 7
• 200+ games - Fremantle 1 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Fremantle 74.9 vs. Brisbane 87.6 (= -12.7 games on average)
• Average age - Fremantle 24.1 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= -0.6 years on average)
• Average height - Fremantle 185.8cm vs. Brisbane 189cm (= -3.2cm on average)
• Average weight - Fremantle 85.4kg vs. Brisbane 89.3kg (= -3.9kg on average)

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 3
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 9
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Carlton 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Carlton 4
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 88.6 vs. Carlton 75.5 (= +13.1 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.7 vs. Carlton 24.4 (= +0.3 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 189cm vs. Carlton 187.3cm (= +1.7cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 89.3kg vs. Carlton 86.1kg (= +3.2kg on average)

• (0 to 10 games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Hawthorn 2 vs. Brisbane 5
• 25 to 49 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Hawthorn 11 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Hawthorn 107.8 vs. Brisbane 75.6 (= +32.2 games on average)
• Average age - Hawthorn 26 vs. Brisbane 24.1 (= +1.9 years on average)
• Average height - Hawthorn 186.1cm vs. Brisbane 188.9cm (= -2.8cm on average)
• Average weight - Hawthorn 85.6kg vs. Brisbane 88.9kg (= -3.3kg on average)

 

[Viceregal]

Still feels weird going into games as more experienced or the heavier group - especially since we have a lot of players who are still early in their number-of-afl-preseasons count.

Not saying I don't like it - just have to get used to it!

 

[Nunez]

Recently with us winning a bunch people have taken to reposting the stats somewhat aggressively on the main board and/or other club boards. I don't personally particularly support this activity but if you feel the need to you should probably adjust them for any late outs. I'm not often going to update late outs especially when the games are starting 4:45am my time.

To adjust the averages, multiply the number by 22, subtract the player removed, add the player added, then divide by 22.

Here's the last three weeks with the actual final teams:
View attachment 528186

• (0 to 10 games - Fremantle 3 vs. Brisbane 1)
• 0 to 24 games - Fremantle 8 vs. Brisbane 4
• 25 to 49 games - Fremantle 3 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Fremantle 4 vs. Brisbane 6
• 100 to 199 games - Fremantle 6 vs. Brisbane 7
• 200+ games - Fremantle 1 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Fremantle 74.9 vs. Brisbane 87.6 (= -12.7 games on average)
• Average age - Fremantle 24.1 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= -0.6 years on average)
• Average height - Fremantle 185.8cm vs. Brisbane 189cm (= -3.2cm on average)
• Average weight - Fremantle 85.4kg vs. Brisbane 89.3kg (= -3.9kg on average)

View attachment 528185

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 3
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Carlton 9
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Carlton 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Carlton 4
• 200+ games - Brisbane 1 vs. Carlton 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 88.6 vs. Carlton 75.5 (= +13.1 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.7 vs. Carlton 24.4 (= +0.3 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 189cm vs. Carlton 187.3cm (= +1.7cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 89.3kg vs. Carlton 86.1kg (= +3.2kg on average)

View attachment 528187

• (0 to 10 games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Hawthorn 2 vs. Brisbane 5
• 25 to 49 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 4
• 50 to 99 games - Hawthorn 4 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Hawthorn 11 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Hawthorn 1 vs. Brisbane 0

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Hawthorn 107.8 vs. Brisbane 75.6 (= +32.2 games on average)
• Average age - Hawthorn 26 vs. Brisbane 24.1 (= +1.9 years on average)
• Average height - Hawthorn 186.1cm vs. Brisbane 188.9cm (= -2.8cm on average)
• Average weight - Hawthorn 85.6kg vs. Brisbane 88.9kg (= -3.3kg on average)

Who would repost stats without checking if the late outs were adjusted?!? Hang the bastard!

 

[dlanod]

To adjust the averages, multiply the number by 22, subtract the player removed, add the player added, then divide by 22.

I think that kind of maths is generally beyond the kind of person that aggressively posts stats on the main board.

 

[Jivlain]

I think that kind of maths is generally beyond the kind of person that aggressively posts stats on the main board.

Yes but my tsking is substantially more justifiable once I've explained how to do it properly.

 

[Jivlain]

[edited - stats were incorrect. see post below for correction]

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

View attachment 529707

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 2 vs. Adelaide 3)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Adelaide 4
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Adelaide 5
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Adelaide 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Adelaide 7
• 200+ games - Brisbane 0 vs. Adelaide 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 73.7 vs. Adelaide 93.4 (= -19.7 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.1 vs. Adelaide 25.5 (= -1.4 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 188.9cm vs. Adelaide 187cm (= +1.9cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 88.9kg vs. Adelaide 86.7kg (= +2.2kg on average)

Those stats don't look too good for us. I'm relying on the non stats to get us home: hunger, confidence, belief and brotherhood.

 

[Dom PC]

Not trying to be a smart arse. But if the team goes in unchanged, shouldn't the average games played for us simply increase by one game?

It looks like our average has gone down by around 2 games since last week?

Love your work Jivlain! Arguably the best thread on the lions board

 

[Surly Boy]

View attachment 529707

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 2 vs. Adelaide 3)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Adelaide 4
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Adelaide 5
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 6 vs. Adelaide 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 7 vs. Adelaide 7
• 200+ games - Brisbane 0 vs. Adelaide 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 73.7 vs. Adelaide 93.4 (= -19.7 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.1 vs. Adelaide 25.5 (= -1.4 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 188.9cm vs. Adelaide 187cm (= +1.9cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 88.9kg vs. Adelaide 86.7kg (= +2.2kg on average)

Who is in the 0-10 game bracket for us?

Cedric and the Big O are the only ones I can see that are close and both have played 11 games?

 

[dlanod]

It looks like our average has gone down by around 2 games since last week?

Hodge was a late change last week, so that might be it.

 

[Keays2myBeamas]

Not trying to be a smart arse. But if the team goes in unchanged, shouldn't the average games played for us simply increase by one game?

It looks like our average has gone down by around 2 games since last week?

Love your work Jivlain! Arguably the best thread on the lions board

Judging by the spread of players in each of the games played brackets, it looks like Jivlain is just using the games played data from 2 or 3 weeks ago (eg McInnerney + Cox have now played more than 10 games, so we have zero players under 10 games. Witherden has also made it to 25 and Taylor to 100).

Average 76.6 this week.

 

[Jivlain]

Oooooooh, you're all a bunch of clever duckies who can notice when I'm still in "pretend it's 16 days ago and we haven't yet played Fremantle mode*", aren't you? Well, good on you. Because of your success, you've earnt a version that's not in that mode.

• (0 to 10 games - Brisbane 0 vs. Adelaide 2)
• 0 to 24 games - Brisbane 4 vs. Adelaide 4
• 25 to 49 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Adelaide 5
• 50 to 99 games - Brisbane 5 vs. Adelaide 4
• 100 to 199 games - Brisbane 8 vs. Adelaide 7
• 200+ games - Brisbane 0 vs. Adelaide 2

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Brisbane 76.6 vs. Adelaide 95.7 (= -19.1 games on average)
• Average age - Brisbane 24.1 vs. Adelaide 25.6 (= -1.5 years on average)
• Average height - Brisbane 188.9cm vs. Adelaide 187cm (= +1.9cm on average)
• Average weight - Brisbane 88.9kg vs. Adelaide 86.7kg (= +2.2kg on average)

(* I forgot to turn it off after posting the stats corrected for the late outs, and yes, that's the order I went in when making them)

 

[Jivlain]

• (0 to 10 games - Geelong 1 vs. Brisbane 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Geelong 5 vs. Brisbane 3
• 25 to 49 games - Geelong 3 vs. Brisbane 5
• 50 to 99 games - Geelong 3 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Geelong 7 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Geelong 4 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Geelong 110.4 vs. Brisbane 92 (= +18.4 games on average)
• Average age - Geelong 25.9 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= +1.2 years on average)
• Average height - Geelong 188.3cm vs. Brisbane 189.4cm (= -1.1cm on average)
• Average weight - Geelong 89kg vs. Brisbane 89.8kg (= -0.8kg on average)

 

[Nunez]

View attachment 533497

• (0 to 10 games - Geelong 1 vs. Brisbane 0)
• 0 to 24 games - Geelong 5 vs. Brisbane 3
• 25 to 49 games - Geelong 3 vs. Brisbane 5
• 50 to 99 games - Geelong 3 vs. Brisbane 5
• 100 to 199 games - Geelong 7 vs. Brisbane 8
• 200+ games - Geelong 4 vs. Brisbane 1

Extra stats:

• Average games played - Geelong 110.4 vs. Brisbane 92 (= +18.4 games on average)
• Average age - Geelong 25.9 vs. Brisbane 24.7 (= +1.2 years on average)
• Average height - Geelong 188.3cm vs. Brisbane 189.4cm (= -1.1cm on average)
• Average weight - Geelong 89kg vs. Brisbane 89.8kg (= -0.8kg on average)

Looks to be the highest games average we've had in some time. Can't wait!