Hawthorn Hawks vs Brisbane Lions – Saturday 14/07/18, 1:45pm at University of Tasmania Stadium (Haw @ $1.23 and Bris @ $4.25)
Summary
The Lions should go into this game with great confidence. Not only have we won two games on the trot, but as I am sure no one here has forgotten, we comfortably disposed of the Hawks in our previous meeting. The Hawks however will also be walking onto the field this Saturday with a huge amount of self-belief, with them having won four out of their last five games (including impressive wins against Port Adelaide and Adelaide). The game shapes up important for each team but for different reasons. A win for this Lions group would ensure for the first time in five years, the club is sitting higher on the ladder than 18th or 17th after round 17, which while small in the scheme of things, is another step in the right direct for our club. For the Hawks, who currently are sitting precariously at 8th on the ladder, they cannot afford to drop a game against such a lowly ranked team if they expect to play finals in 2018.
Hawthorn vs Hawthorn the II?
Comparing the above team’s stats with each other there are some remarkably similar trends showing (marks, uncontested positions and meters gained etc.). With such a senior Hawthorn figure coming to coach our team and then a year later their greatest on field general, is it surprising that our style of play appears to be remarkably similar to the Hawks? Probably not. There is nothing wrong with copying other team’s styles and structures, the key thing is making sure the team is getting positive results from it. While the wins column might seem a bit bare currently for the Lions, very few would argue with the style and overall direction Fagan is taking this team. For this weekend, perhaps the question is, can Brisbane out Hawthorn, Hawthorn?
Beautiful Percentage!!!
It’s been five years since our percentage has been this high at round 17. I think its fair to say it is our biggest indicator of the huge strides forward the team has taken over the last 18 months. While a win would be fantastic and continue to give positive reinforcement to our young group. I think provided it’s a close game and we can continue the positive trajectory of our percentage (i.e. a close loss) most fans will walk away from the game or switch off the TV/radio after the game with some more sprinkling of hope. So is there going to be a few more blow outs before we start pushing for the top 8? Very likely so, but hopefully it won’t be this week so I can continue to gawk over our relatively beautiful percentage!!!
Hodge… Hawthorns “Dear Leader”
So… it’s that time of the year again. It is our customary Tasmania game. It seems a shame even the lure of the Dear Leader playing on his old stomping ground against his beloved Hawks could not sway the suits at AFL house to allow the Lions another MCG game. But I digress, Hodge will be playing his second game against his old outfit and will be walking into that game with a great amount of confidence in his own form. Hopefully he can continue this vintage form for another week and show the Hawthorn fans that the Dear Leader is not dead, he’s just gone to a better place
Last Time We Met
With McCluggage, Hipwood, Beams Zorko and Cutler all were named amongst the best on that day. There is no reason why we can’t hope to give Hawthorn a repeat dosage on Saturday afternoon. However, there are a few reasons to be wary and I’ll give two. Two key players in that performance will be missing this weekend in Harris Andrews (* J.Cameron) and Charlie Cameron. Both were arguably in our top 5 in that 56 point smashing, so they are key outs from the last game. Additionally, we perhaps were lucky to be leading at half time in that game, with the Hawks having 29 inside 50s to 16 at half time. With such a master coach in Alastair Clarkson and the benefit of hindsight (and the fact Andrews won’t be down back to steady the ship), we would be foolish to think we stand a chance if those numbers are repeated. With that said, we have managed strong first quarter performances over the last two weeks. So provided we can continue on with those type of starts (hopefully the boys don’t assume it will just happen), it could be a very entertaining game from the start to finish.
A Few Key Matchups
Stefan Martin vs Jonathon Ceglar
This will be an important match up in the midfield battle. With the loss of Ben McEvoy (I hate that big boy nick name btw!), it is a possible edge the Lions can get on the day, meaning more first use for our young midfield. In saying that, Ceglar is a fair ruckman in his own right and has a decent set of hands and could kick a few up forward if given the chance. Without out that really tall key defender in Andrews, its something our defence will need to be wary of. But overall, if Martin can dominate around the ground, it will very much increase our chances of winning the midfield battle.
Luke Breust vs Darcy Gardiner
As I am sure most would be aware, Breust popped up and kicked 6 goals last weekend (along with 24 touches) so it will be important to quell his influence on Saturday. That’s why I believe (I could be wrong on this match up of course) it would be wise to put arguably our best defender (who is playing) on him. With Gardiner having a very good ability of playing on big or small forwards, I think he can match up pretty well with Breust. It's also worth mentioning that Gardiner had a big influence last weekend in our win with 27 touches himself and keeping Charlie Curnow to just 6 touches. So if he can have an influence like that this week on Bruest while getting big numbers himself, it would suggest the Lions would be in with a huge chance of winning.
Eric Hipwood vs James Frawley
When Eric plays well, the Lions seem to play well and get either close to winning or get the actual win. So from a Hawks perspective, allowing Eric to get 15 odd touches and kick 3 or 4 goals would seriously dent their chances of winning the game. So it might be wise to put their best defender on him for most of the game. Of course that might leave McStay open for a big game, but they can’t allow both off the chain and I’d argue Hipwood is the bigger game breaker.
Final Word
The midfield that applies the best pressure without the ball and the team that uses the football best going inside 50 will likely be the winner here. Both teams structurally and statically are very similar. One key stat worth noting is that the Hawks are averaging 3 more tackles inside 50 per game then us. If we can break even or better them there and keep it in their defensive 50, it will go a long way to keeping us in the game and perhaps even winning.
Hopeful of a good game here, but sadly I'll say the Hawks by 17.
Summary
The Lions should go into this game with great confidence. Not only have we won two games on the trot, but as I am sure no one here has forgotten, we comfortably disposed of the Hawks in our previous meeting. The Hawks however will also be walking onto the field this Saturday with a huge amount of self-belief, with them having won four out of their last five games (including impressive wins against Port Adelaide and Adelaide). The game shapes up important for each team but for different reasons. A win for this Lions group would ensure for the first time in five years, the club is sitting higher on the ladder than 18th or 17th after round 17, which while small in the scheme of things, is another step in the right direct for our club. For the Hawks, who currently are sitting precariously at 8th on the ladder, they cannot afford to drop a game against such a lowly ranked team if they expect to play finals in 2018.
Hawthorn vs Hawthorn the II?
Comparing the above team’s stats with each other there are some remarkably similar trends showing (marks, uncontested positions and meters gained etc.). With such a senior Hawthorn figure coming to coach our team and then a year later their greatest on field general, is it surprising that our style of play appears to be remarkably similar to the Hawks? Probably not. There is nothing wrong with copying other team’s styles and structures, the key thing is making sure the team is getting positive results from it. While the wins column might seem a bit bare currently for the Lions, very few would argue with the style and overall direction Fagan is taking this team. For this weekend, perhaps the question is, can Brisbane out Hawthorn, Hawthorn?
Beautiful Percentage!!!
It’s been five years since our percentage has been this high at round 17. I think its fair to say it is our biggest indicator of the huge strides forward the team has taken over the last 18 months. While a win would be fantastic and continue to give positive reinforcement to our young group. I think provided it’s a close game and we can continue the positive trajectory of our percentage (i.e. a close loss) most fans will walk away from the game or switch off the TV/radio after the game with some more sprinkling of hope. So is there going to be a few more blow outs before we start pushing for the top 8? Very likely so, but hopefully it won’t be this week so I can continue to gawk over our relatively beautiful percentage!!!
Hodge… Hawthorns “Dear Leader”
So… it’s that time of the year again. It is our customary Tasmania game. It seems a shame even the lure of the Dear Leader playing on his old stomping ground against his beloved Hawks could not sway the suits at AFL house to allow the Lions another MCG game. But I digress, Hodge will be playing his second game against his old outfit and will be walking into that game with a great amount of confidence in his own form. Hopefully he can continue this vintage form for another week and show the Hawthorn fans that the Dear Leader is not dead, he’s just gone to a better place
Last Time We Met
With McCluggage, Hipwood, Beams Zorko and Cutler all were named amongst the best on that day. There is no reason why we can’t hope to give Hawthorn a repeat dosage on Saturday afternoon. However, there are a few reasons to be wary and I’ll give two. Two key players in that performance will be missing this weekend in Harris Andrews (* J.Cameron) and Charlie Cameron. Both were arguably in our top 5 in that 56 point smashing, so they are key outs from the last game. Additionally, we perhaps were lucky to be leading at half time in that game, with the Hawks having 29 inside 50s to 16 at half time. With such a master coach in Alastair Clarkson and the benefit of hindsight (and the fact Andrews won’t be down back to steady the ship), we would be foolish to think we stand a chance if those numbers are repeated. With that said, we have managed strong first quarter performances over the last two weeks. So provided we can continue on with those type of starts (hopefully the boys don’t assume it will just happen), it could be a very entertaining game from the start to finish.
A Few Key Matchups
Stefan Martin vs Jonathon Ceglar
This will be an important match up in the midfield battle. With the loss of Ben McEvoy (I hate that big boy nick name btw!), it is a possible edge the Lions can get on the day, meaning more first use for our young midfield. In saying that, Ceglar is a fair ruckman in his own right and has a decent set of hands and could kick a few up forward if given the chance. Without out that really tall key defender in Andrews, its something our defence will need to be wary of. But overall, if Martin can dominate around the ground, it will very much increase our chances of winning the midfield battle.
Luke Breust vs Darcy Gardiner
As I am sure most would be aware, Breust popped up and kicked 6 goals last weekend (along with 24 touches) so it will be important to quell his influence on Saturday. That’s why I believe (I could be wrong on this match up of course) it would be wise to put arguably our best defender (who is playing) on him. With Gardiner having a very good ability of playing on big or small forwards, I think he can match up pretty well with Breust. It's also worth mentioning that Gardiner had a big influence last weekend in our win with 27 touches himself and keeping Charlie Curnow to just 6 touches. So if he can have an influence like that this week on Bruest while getting big numbers himself, it would suggest the Lions would be in with a huge chance of winning.
Eric Hipwood vs James Frawley
When Eric plays well, the Lions seem to play well and get either close to winning or get the actual win. So from a Hawks perspective, allowing Eric to get 15 odd touches and kick 3 or 4 goals would seriously dent their chances of winning the game. So it might be wise to put their best defender on him for most of the game. Of course that might leave McStay open for a big game, but they can’t allow both off the chain and I’d argue Hipwood is the bigger game breaker.
Final Word
The midfield that applies the best pressure without the ball and the team that uses the football best going inside 50 will likely be the winner here. Both teams structurally and statically are very similar. One key stat worth noting is that the Hawks are averaging 3 more tackles inside 50 per game then us. If we can break even or better them there and keep it in their defensive 50, it will go a long way to keeping us in the game and perhaps even winning.
Hopeful of a good game here, but sadly I'll say the Hawks by 17.
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