Can Adelaide still make it?

[coryne]

Looks like there's only one place still available in the eight and after this weeks expected results we will need to win three more games than ALL of North, Hawks and GWS. That's highly unlikely and means we are probably relying on a lot of other games to go our way.

Win the next two and there's a pulse but we are just so far away from being remotely competitive that I can't see us getting there. In three weeks we may be better getting all those dodgy persistent injuries right by putting guys out for the year and reaping the benefits of a lower finish. This years draft could set us up for a decade if we play it right.

Yeah it is always a balance between building form for the next year and getting players ready health wise. (Yes i know the irony of a Carlton supposer talking on this issue .....).

One thing that you will need to look at is who's picks you will have in the draft. (at this stage anyway) You will have Adelaide's and Melbourne's 1st rd picks and Carlton's second (but not your own) so currently it would be #8, #15 and #19. While dropping down the ladder will "help" improve your 1st and 3rd rd picks what you also need to do is hope that Carlton stay low and Melbourne choke in the finals to push their pick down further too.

Now what Carlton supporters are hoping for is that Adelaide and the Bulldogs continue their slides, and we pull a miracle and move up the ladder a bit to close the gap between the 2nd rd pick we traded abd those we recieved...... (I know, but I can dream .......)

 

[ep2018]

They can but they wont win the flag, considering how good the draft this year seems to be and with Sloane and lesser Gov likely to request trades, not the worst idea for them to tank and hoard decent draft picks.

 

[Juddernaut08]

Yeah it is always a balance between building form for the next year and getting players ready health wise. (Yes i know the irony of a Carlton supposer talking on this issue .....).

One thing that you will need to look at is who's picks you will have in the draft. (at this stage anyway) You will have Adelaide's and Melbourne's 1st rd picks and Carlton's second (but not your own) so currently it would be #8, #15 and #19. While dropping down the ladder will "help" improve your 1st and 3rd rd picks what you also need to do is hope that Carlton stay low and Melbourne choke in the finals to push their pick down further too.

Now what Carlton supporters are hoping for is that Adelaide and the Bulldogs continue their slides, and we pull a miracle and move up the ladder a bit to close the gap between the 2nd rd pick we traded abd those we recieved...... (I know, but I can dream .......)

The Crows would do well to on-trade their picks to bring more senior players in for a tilt at the flag IMO.

They've dealt with injuries this year and they can "do a West Coast" by taking a dip this year, and firing back up. Get in a few mature guns and have a last tilt.

They've already gone semi-all in by trading 2 first rounders for Gibbs, may as well go full in, not just the tip.

 

[Toump Ass]

Would be a shame to not see POWERSTANCE!!! light up the G in September.

 

[PCORF]

Would be a shame to not see POWERSTANCE!!! light up the G in September.

Betcha Richmond fans will miss booing it!

 

[alexmc]

Might make the bottom 4 if they're lucky. If you think they're a chance for the finals you might need to see a head doctor.

 

[PerthBoy86]

They need to win every game from here to make it, unless their percentage drastically improves. I give them a 25% chance.

 

[J_Moore]

They need to win every game from here to make it, unless their percentage drastically improves. I give them a 25% chance.

That’s the most amazing calculation of probability I’ve seen.


Fwiw, prior to last night’s win, champion data had the Crows a 7% chance to make the 8. TAB has them 6-1 to make the 8 today.

 

[Cincinnatus]

They need to win every game from here to make it, unless their percentage drastically improves. I give them a 25% chance.

The good thing is that we have 3 of those games (potentially 4 if Port s**t the bed next 2 weeks) against finals rivals.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

The Crows could make it. I think their focus will be just to finish the year well and lead into next year from as strong a position as possible. This year has gone to hell, but I dont think any fundamental changes are needed. Their list is still in a good place and at their best their game plan certainly holds up.

 

[1990crow]

Brisbane and Carlton should be wins.
North at home - in form a win.

13 wins gets you into the 8.

Need to win 2 of Melbourne, Port and GWS. Port will be 50/50 so winnable. Melbourne home looks winnable with recent form. GWS away will be easier without Patton and with McGovern + Smith.

We’ll see.

 

[Jcpdragonx]

Capable of winning every game, will beat the overrated port

 

[betterthanu]

Ive just got us into 3rd come round 23 on the ladder predictor. Booking my flights to Melbourne for a qualifying final at the G vs the Pies.

 

[pjcrows]

Ive just got us into 3rd come round 23 on the ladder predictor. Booking my flights to Melbourne for a qualifying final at the G vs the Pies.

Qualifying? My GF flights are booked and I've already set aside money for the flag memorabilia*.







* But seriously, we won't make the 8. Too far back and too low percentage.

 

[radiojake]

Ive just got us into 3rd come round 23 on the ladder predictor. Booking my flights to Melbourne for a qualifying final at the G vs the Pies.

Lol how many games do Carlton and Gold Coast need to win for that scenario to happen?

How is that even mathematically possible?

 

[dave123]

Bulldogs won it from 7th ....if crows went 5-1 and fisnished 6-8th who knows


No one and I mean no thought bulldogs could win flag from 7th ...they did ....

 

[jakson68]

Will need everything to go right, including some help from other teams.
Their biggest issue is their percentage. All they can do is keep winning and let results take care of themselves.
Teams are so close this year, if you take care of your own result, anything can happen.

 

[ARES]

Would be a shame to not see POWERSTANCE!!! light up the G in September.

Always room for another club to adopt this power stance in the big one.
Hopefully Crows will be accommodating and reveal the secret to this brilliant display... will take time to nail it though...
I've been practicing for a while now, think I got the stance, the stare is a work in progress... lose concentration easily...

I keep repeating, "be the stare, be the stare"

One day...

 

[captain cotch 9]

Betcha Richmond fans will miss booing it!

booing it?
We laughed at it hahaha

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Brisbane and Carlton should be wins.
North at home - in form a win.

13 wins gets you into the 8.

Need to win 2 of Melbourne, Port and GWS. Port will be 50/50 so winnable. Melbourne home looks winnable with recent form. GWS away will be easier without Patton and with McGovern + Smith.

We’ll see.

we will have Jezza and Toby and we haven't lost at Manuka since 2015, but dont lose any sleep.

 

[1990crow]

we will have Jezza and Toby and we haven't lost at Manuka since 2015, but dont lose any sleep.

Oh this is in Canberra. Thought it was western Sydney. That is interesting.. we don’t play wind very well.

 

[Mr_Moogle]

No. Adelaide won't be able to win every remaining game. Crows will finish 9th or 10th.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Oh this is in Canberra. Thought it was western Sydney. That is interesting.. we don’t play wind very well.

The wind for the Freo game is unusual, but August is the right time of year for Westerlies. It's very open with grandstands shielding around 25% It's a big ground, a bit wider than the G and about the same length. Good surface usually on the hard side.

 

[1990crow]

The wind for the Freo game is unusual, but August is the right time of year for Westerlies. It's very open with grandstands shielding around 25% It's a big ground, a bit wider than the G and about the same length. Good surface usually on the hard side.

Yeah nothing wrong with the surface. Just the wind is something most afl players don’t have to deal with weekly and our best footy is based on rebound and slick ball movement.

 

[betterthanu]

Lol how many games do Carlton and Gold Coast need to win for that scenario to happen?

How is that even mathematically possible?

Gold Coast beats Carlton. Nothing individually unrealistic. Just the perfect storm of every single 50/50 game to go Crows way and a 100 point belting of Carlton in round 23. It wont allow me to check the finals but i imagine we beat Collingwood in the qualifying. We then go on knock off Port in a Prelim Showdown before losing by 100 points to Richmond in the grand final.