Preview The Home Ground Factor in Finals is hugely overrated

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I'm not sure if I'm alone but I really think the home ground advantage in finals is a myth. They are not like home and away games and no club actually owns the venue for finals. The ticket allocation is completely different, even the rooms are random, and no team needs motivation.

I have confirmed with the expert in the analytics thread there is no valid data to suggest either way to the notion there is an advantage. Mostly people extrapolate home and away data and I reject it's validity.

Not really relevant but personally I really like the MCG and would love to go there in September to watch our guys. I went twice past year and it's a great experience. The infrastructure, ease of moving around, and even queues were impressive.

I haven't been to Optus but would welcome the opportunity.

More relevant is there's no doubt the playing group dream of playing in the last week in September at the G. And would prefer a QF at the MCG or Optus to an EF at Spotless or Manuka.

Surely all interstate teams have a similar view.

 

[kranky al]

Stats were listed on bf a while ago on home finals that show a clear advantage to the home team in finals.


In other news :


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-home-truths-about-football-finals-20180616-p4zlx4.html

 

[kranky al]

This article with the swans pushing a best of idea:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...s-after-grand-final-snub-20180413-p4z9h0.html

 

[Frank Gallagher]

Technically there is no home game advantage in a final, it's home state, say Port host a final they won't be allowed to sing that song before the game as the AFL host the final.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Stats were listed on bf a while ago on home finals that show a clear advantage to the home team in finals.


In other news :


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-home-truths-about-football-finals-20180616-p4zlx4.html

The article uses H/A data extrapolated to finals though. I adressed that in the OP, in my view it's nonsense.

 

[im_a_lazy_sod]

This article with the swans pushing a best of idea:

https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl...s-after-grand-final-snub-20180413-p4z9h0.html

Good read. Hopefully will be the end of non-Vic clubs being scheduled to play MCG tennant clubs in Darwin (Melbourne) and Hawthorn (Tasmania) - or even Etihad for that matter.

 

[kranky al]

The article uses H/A data extrapolated to finals though. I adressed that in the OP, in my view it's nonsense.

Im trying to find the stats for finals only - someone posted them here - the home ground advantage for teams hosting a team from interstate are more probounced than tge regukar season

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Im trying to find the stats for finals only - someone posted them here - the home ground advantage for teams hosting a team from interstate are more probounced than tge regukar season

Fair enough.

 

[blue harvest]

You would expect the data to show home ground advantage for weeks 1-3 finals because the home team is generally higher on the ladder and therefore a better team and also gets a huge crowd advantage. And that's what the data does in fact show.

But for the GF the advantage is greatly diminished because you have the 2 best teams and the huge crowd advantage removed. And that's what the data shows, it's 8 wins a piece for Vic vs Interstate GFs.

 

[kidkenobi]

Stats are limited in what they can tell you. You may choose to interpret them in such a way, but they are just numbers and don’t tell the whole story. I don’t agree with what you’re saying regardless of what they show. I do think finals pressure affects teams regardless of the venue, but there’s no team in the comp that wouldn’t rather play a big final at their home ground.

Just because a team can win a final or the grand final at an away venue, it doesn’t mean home ground advantage doesn’t exist, it just means that team was good enough to overcome it

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Stats are limited in what they can tell you. You may choose to interpret them in such a way, but they are just numbers and don’t tell the whole story. I don’t agree with what you’re saying regardless of what they show. I do think finals pressure affects teams regardless of the venue, but there’s no team in the comp that wouldn’t rather play a big final at their home ground.

Just because a team can win a final or the grand final at an away venue, it doesn’t mean home ground advantage doesn’t exist, it just means that team was good enough to overcome it

I'm actually not convinced that's true for the GF. Players grow up dreaming of playing a GF at the G.

 

[ep2018]

Technically there is no home game advantage in a final, it's home state, say Port host a final they won't be allowed to sing that song before the game as the AFL host the final.

They did against us last year.

 

[kozi]

I'm not sure if I'm alone but I really think the home ground advantage in finals is a myth. They are not like home and away games and no club actually owns the venue for finals. The ticket allocation is completely different, even the rooms are random, and no team needs motivation.

I have confirmed with the expert in the analytics thread there is no valid data to suggest either way to the notion there is an advantage. Mostly people extrapolate home and away data and I reject it's validity.

Not really relevant but personally I really like the MCG and would love to go there in September to watch our guys. I went twice past year and it's a great experience. The infrastructure, ease of moving around, and even queues were impressive.

I haven't been to Optus but would welcome the opportunity.

More relevant is there's no doubt the playing group dream of playing in the last week in September at the G. And would prefer a QF at the MCG or Optus to an EF at Spotless or Manuka.

Surely all interstate teams have a similar view.

I'm all for anything that puts to bed or limits the incessant whinging from across the border about the big dance being played at the G.

 

[nick1408]

Technically there is no home game advantage in a final, it's home state, say Port host a final they won't be allowed to sing that song before the game as the AFL host the final.

They did in the year Richmond wanted to come home with the wind

 

[Kreuuuzeurns]

I don’t buy the crowd stuff. Our crowds arent near as hostile or as noisy as say a European/South American soccer match.

The advantage is in knowing the ground and how to play it, the conditions, and getting normal sleep and preparation compared to a hotel.

There’s a reason you’ll hear Richmond fans say “wait until we meet them on the G” after an interstate loss.

 

[dean33]

Stats were listed on bf a while ago on home finals that show a clear advantage to the home team in finals.


In other news :


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-home-truths-about-football-finals-20180616-p4zlx4.html

We’ve gone around in circles about this previously kranky but let’s look at this season as an example. Richmond could likely play fellow mcg Tennant hawthorn in their first final and then Collingwood in the prelim. So for those 2 finals Richmond’s advantage for finishing top is nothing, naught, zero. The eagles however will have a serious home ground advantage in both their finals with fellow Tennant Freo out of the finals.
Do we complain? No, it’s all swings and roundabouts.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I'm all for anything that puts to bed or limits the incessant whinging from across the border about the big dance being played at the G.

Even when it suits the Mexicans I prefer the truth.

 

[kranky al]

We’ve gone around in circles about this previously kranky but let’s look at this season as an example. Richmond could likely play fellow mcg Tennant hawthorn in their first final and then Collingwood in the prelim. So for those 2 finals Richmond’s advantage for finishing top is nothing, naught, zero. The eagles however will have a serious home ground advantage in both their finals with fellow Tennant Freo out of the finals.
Do we complain? No it’s all swings and roundabouts.

Richmonds probably a bad example - theres no team knocking you off at the g.

And your swing and roundabout comes when you are the collingwood - ie you get a home final you havnt earned - bit like your mob last year vs geelong or if collingwood make it through this year.


You forget that our corrollary is : 50% of our finals mean we fly.

We come 1,2,5,6 we stay home

We come 3,4,7,8 we fly.

 

[Tbonefreo]

I think the eagles can beat the tigers. The tigers have a geelong 08 vibe about them at the moment.

 

[sprockets]

Stats are limited in what they can tell you. You may choose to interpret them in such a way, but they are just numbers and don’t tell the whole story. I don’t agree with what you’re saying regardless of what they show. I do think finals pressure affects teams regardless of the venue, but there’s no team in the comp that wouldn’t rather play a big final at their home ground.

Just because a team can win a final or the grand final at an away venue, it doesn’t mean home ground advantage doesn’t exist, it just means that team was good enough to overcome it

That's because Geelong and the interstate sides have a massive advantage compared with MCG and even Etihad tenants.

 

[Tbonefreo]

That's because Geelong and the interstate sides have a massive advantage compared with MCG and even Etihad tenants.

Please elaborate my friend

 

[Balls In]

Its worth about $4k when you factor flights and accomodation

 

[Tbonefreo]

I'm not sure if I'm alone but I really think the home ground advantage in finals is a myth. They are not like home and away games and no club actually owns the venue for finals. The ticket allocation is completely different, even the rooms are random, and no team needs motivation.

I have confirmed with the expert in the analytics thread there is no valid data to suggest either way to the notion there is an advantage. Mostly people extrapolate home and away data and I reject it's validity.

Not really relevant but personally I really like the MCG and would love to go there in September to watch our guys. I went twice past year and it's a great experience. The infrastructure, ease of moving around, and even queues were impressive.

I haven't been to Optus but would welcome the opportunity.

More relevant is there's no doubt the playing group dream of playing in the last week in September at the G. And would prefer a QF at the MCG or Optus to an EF at Spotless or Manuka.

Surely all interstate teams have a similar view.

The AFL tried manipulating the result in '13 by sending us to Geelong instead of Melb like the previous year (2012 EF).

Would have preferred to play at the G although it didnt matter.

 

[kranky al]

That's because Geelong and the interstate sides have a massive advantage compared with MCG and even Etihad tenants.

Coming 3,4,7,8 im really not feeling an advantage at all. History tells us that we lose most interstate finals.

 

[blue harvest]

The AFL tried manipulating the result in '13 by sending us to Geelong instead of Melb like the previous year (2012 EF).

Lol no they didn't.
The G was unavailable in 2013 with 3 other games on. In 2012 there was only 1 other game at the G and Kardinia Park was a construction site. Kardinia Park is long and narrow like Subiaco so actually suited Freo.