Racing VRC Derby

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Optimistic Dog

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Anyone have any thoughts on the Derby.

I took 200/1 Hasabro before its 2nd at Geelong on Monday should have won by panels. Into 50/1 now. In the words of Molly Meldrum do yourself a favour and watch the replay it was only a maiden but it was a run of potential top stayer.



https://www.racing.com/form/2018-10-01/bet365-geelong

HASABRO UNLUCKY IN AUSTRALIAN DEBUT




The Stephen McKee-trained Hasabro remains a maiden following a luckless second at Geelong today.

The son of Savabeel is yet to win a race in seven starts, but is being set for the Gr. 1 Victoria Derby on November 3 and looks like he will relish getting over ground.

Sent off an even-money favourite in a maiden over 1755 metres at Geelong, Hasabro sat just behind the leaders throughout under Damian Lane, but never saw clear running until very late in the piece when charging home for second.

“We are looking at races like the Caulfield Classic or the Geelong Classic, going forward to the Derby,” McKee said.
 
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Optimistic Dog

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I reckon I'm more chance of picking the Everest trifecta straight out than picking the Derby winner right now

You are probably correct but I am more than happy to have wasted $50 on Hasabro at 200/1 for a potential $10,000 collect rather than take the crammed odds on the cup.
 
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Optimistic Dog

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Hasn’t won a race in 7 tries. Can’t beat some maiden plodders at 1700m. Yeah I’m on.

Should still be 200-1. Betting companies are criminals.

But that was one of he worst rides I’ve seen by Damian Lane.


Doesn't this comment say he was the worthy winner. Also Lane was more impressed with Hasabro as Derby prospect than Botti that he won on later in the day and is 13/1 for Derby. I will probably lose my money but if he was 200/1 I will be backing him again.
 
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I had a small nibble at Aramayo yesterday before it went around. Beating home Thinking Big was a positive, but not sure it was anything special. Into fave though now
 

LFC2010

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Been following Savvy Oak since it's maiden win.

backed at 34's after it's UCI stakes run and will be backing it again after it stormed home on the weekend.

You need a good turn of foot in a derby run, and this horse has exactly that.
 

LFC2010

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Interesting barrier draw with the Derby. Speed drawn out wide and middle, backmarkers drawn inside.

Savoie drawing the car park almost guarantees the speed will be on early as they don't want it to be deep in the run.

Might have a sneaky e/w on Farooq given the draw. Imagine his worth if he wins it being a colt out of Frankel. $:eek:
 
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Interesting barrier draw with the Derby. Speed drawn out wide and middle, backmarkers drawn inside.

Savoie drawing the car park almost guarantees the speed will be on early as they don't want it to be deep in the run.

Might have a sneaky e/w on Farooq given the draw. Imagine his worth if he wins it being a colt out of Frankel. $:eek:
Farooq kept on plugging away Geelong.

Unsure that form is a rung below
 

Viva la Mattner

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Really don't think it has the turn off foot for a race like this, but i'm having an e/w bet on it because of the story it'll create if it does win.
i'm looking forward to seeing him wind up on that Flemington straight, he is a monster of a horse and once he gets going will have some momentum
 

LFC2010

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2 sleeps out and Thinking Big is already getting the blows in the market. This race should probably 6/1 the field, $3 was way unders for him. No clear cut favourite this year.
 
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