The HOTHAM - Official Form Thread

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THE HOTHAM - 2018

Ratings courtesy of the tipster of our generation, the all powerful David Gately Duritz

iluvparis FallingLiefs

1. All The Wine: Been down last couple over shorter trips on rain affected ground but quite good previous to those with 90/91 on the dry. Should get conditions to suit but map doesn’t look great. Top is 97, which was at first race start! Rating: 88.5

2. Briconi: Had 3 runs back from a spell but none of them have been flash. Top 87 but that was 12 months ago. Ran 2nd in this race last year doing an 83 and hasn’t gone better than that since. Rating: 82.5

3. Henry’s Affair: Fitter for a couple back after 4 month break. OK first up with 86 and then excuses last time when a level off that. Top 89, which was 15+ months ago. Has come back better than last prep but is very hard to catch and best is generally over 1000m. Map not flash. Rating: 85.5

4. It’s Got Lip: Just had the one run since December last year, which was a 10L defeat over 975m. 84 is top in the last 18 months but cant imagine he could be competitive up to 1200 with such little racing of late. Only positive is that he maps very well and did improve 7+ lengths on first up run last prep. Rating: 81

5. Pujols: Poor old poo holes. Hes the only one in the field I'm familiar with. He used to be a very consistent galloper, the problem is it's at a very low level. Top is 89 but hes done it a stack of times and most of the time hes up and around that mark. Excuses first up and up to 1200 now is OK. Gate 16 is certainly no help for old poo but hes one of the more consistent types you will find in the race. He should sit three wide with cover a few pairs back so he shouldn't be too disadvantaged if they can come down the middle. Rating: 87

6. Street Prince: Back from 2100>1200 here off month break…Was OK earlier in prep over 1400 and last prep in that range. Has also shown up over this trip in the past. Not hopeless. Map OK but will probably need some luck in the strt along the rail. Rating: 85.5

7. Beau Dazzle: Awful first up. Awful last prep. Awful. Outclassed #lel Rating: 75

8. Brave Lady: Top in the last 18 months is 77 and hasn’t got near that in two runs this time in. Do.Not.Want. Rating: 75

9. Costano Millie: Hasn’t been over less ground than 2000m this year. 67 is best first up and also his best over this trip, which was in this race last year. No ******* ideal why its in the race, will get lapped. Failed to finish in three of last five over the jumps. Rating: 69

10. Danube Delta: Drawn 15 and hasn’t been over this sort of trip for about 3 years. Best was a respectable 92 over 2000m last prep. But clearly not going to get anywhere near that and has fallen away horribly since that run. Off two month break here. Will get a long way back and has none. Current price at $7 is vomit enducing. Rating: 80

11. Mental As Anything: First up 3+ months. Quite inconsistent but did do an 82 over 900m first up last prep. Rarely gets out to 1200 so this trip first up can see it falling in a big hole at the 200 and doubt it gets any kind of clear room in the straight anyway where it maps. Rating 82

12. Rosamond: First up 10 weeks. Top was 88 last prep but very inconsistent. Not flogged in a couple of recent trials over 800/1000 but best is clearly over more ground. Has done 84 over this trip first up earlier in career but sits last/fence with a stack to do at some point. Rating: 83.

13. Adayondek: Best is 79 in the last three years. 74 first up this time in over 1050. Hard to know what her best trip is as shes terrible over any distance. Positive is she gets the run of the race but simply not good enough to take advantage of it. Rating: 79

14. Graffias: 'Fitter for a couple back over 1500/1600 so doesn’t appear to have been set for this race! Raced once over this trip for a 69 at first start. Might find these too slick and doesn’t map well. Rating: 79

15. Dylan’s Star: Fitter for one run back from 6 month break but was awful. Was fairly consistent in that 83-84 range last prep over this trip last prep though. So, may be able to improve sharply with that run under the belt. But very unlikely to get a run which takes even more speed out of the race. Rating: 82

16. Can Get a Witness: Poor in a couple this time in and 1200 not her go. 77 top in last 10 runs and that was over more ground. Unlikely to get a run, even more unlikely to get near them if she does. Rating: 78



Suggested Bets:
Pujols - Win
Henry's Affair - Each Way (1x3)
Quin/Trif - 1,3,5
 
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