2018 AFL Crowds & Ratings thread

[BringBackTorps]

I'd argue just as big as a factor is the simple times in which the matches are scheduled. If the AFL played on a Thursday and Monday night for every round of the season, they'd get more viewer[Agree]

The AFL will have to spend, IMO, an additional $1 billion+ (in todays $) over the next 20 years to pay for:-

. a huge increase in female AF facilities -due to the nationwide boom in the nos. of females playing AF.

. many current GR AF ovals will need improved lighting upgrades, to cater for regular GR twilight/early evening games. A shortage of ovals already exists in some areas, for both matches & training. The VAFA has told Umpires in 2018 a major increase in night matches is inevitable, due to shortage of ovals/boom in female GR AF.

. providing female Umpire toilets. Female Umpire nos. are increasing, & the Umpire rooms don't have female toilets.

Furthermore, additional funding, apart from the above, will be required for the AFLW in particular, & promoting/supporting female GR AF in general.

Paraphrasing, G. McLachlan has said in August 2018 "'There is nothing more important to the AFL than the AFLW". N.Livingstone, AFLW General Manager said "We want the AFLW to become a full time professional option for all its players, for those who want it" -WOW, potentially 600+ AFLW full timers!; & Peter Gordon, Footscray President, said " The development of female football is the most important event in the game since Wills & Harrison" ie since 1858 -WOW!

Also, how much will the AFL need to spend on its desire to create 24/7, 365 day pa entertainment venues on its DS land overlooking the waterfront (to produce more non-football revenue options); & to build its new HQ (the current HQ will be demolished to create the latter)?

For these reasons, I believe there should be an early Thursday evening game every week, & it should be a blockbuster -to bring in the big Rights/ advertising $.

 

[Gigantor]

Yep, next time broadcast rights come up, we better have that Thursday night game permanently slotted in.

To achieve it, it might mean reducing the rounds to 20, but spreading them out over 24 weeks or so, meaning most rounds will have 8 games only, and each team is getting two byes per season.

You are then spreading 8 games (24 hours) over Thurs (3 hours), Fri (3 hours), Sat ( 4 games = 12 hours) and Sun (6 hours); you end up with only two games going head to head for the Sat twilight game, assuming how you want to schedule things.

It's a model where even with reduced games, your ratings are going to remain pretty stable overall, and you have introduced a 2nd premium game (and in any event, we'll probably be even less reliant on FTA money).

 

[BobbyMorri]

Yep, next time broadcast rights come up, we better have that Thursday night game permanently slotted in.

To achieve it, it might mean reducing the rounds to 20, but spreading them out over 24 weeks or so, meaning most rounds will have 8 games only, and each team is getting two byes per season.

You are then spreading 8 games (24 hours) over Thurs (3 hours), Fri (3 hours), Sat ( 4 games = 12 hours) and Sun (6 hours); you end up with only two games going head to head for the Sat twilight game, assuming how you want to schedule things.

It's a model where even with reduced games, your ratings are going to remain pretty stable overall, and you have introduced a 2nd premium game (and in any event, we'll probably be even less reliant on FTA money).

yuck. I know I am old fashioned but I do miss the days of simple timeslots with multi matches going on at the same time.

honestly, who cares if the NRL won the ratings with an *. They have sold their soul for those TV ratings. Friday night games@6pm and Thursday night are not fan-friendly and it shows in the attendance for those games. It is something I don't want to happen to the AFL. I think it damages more than it helps.

 

[NoobPie]

Re the relative TV ratings performance of the AFL finals versus the NRL finals, a quick analysis says:

-The AFL clearly won every game that went head to head (FTA Metro / reg and STV) between 15% and 35%
-In terms of the 6 h2h games, the AFL won in traditional markets by 13.5 fold in Melbourne (this included 2 storm games), and around 15 fold in SA and WA.
-In Sydney and Brisbane the NRL won by just 5 and 4 respectively. So for instance in Brisbane through the finals, there were just 4 people watching the NRL on 9HD for every 1 watching the AFL on 7 mate
-In the h2h games the AFL averaged 67% higher average FTA metro ratings and 36% higher on fox

 

[workhorse]

Yep, next time broadcast rights come up, we better have that Thursday night game permanently slotted in.

To achieve it, it might mean reducing the rounds to 20, but spreading them out over 24 weeks or so, meaning most rounds will have 8 games only, and each team is getting two byes per season.

You are then spreading 8 games (24 hours) over Thurs (3 hours), Fri (3 hours), Sat ( 4 games = 12 hours) and Sun (6 hours); you end up with only two games going head to head for the Sat twilight game, assuming how you want to schedule things.

It's a model where even with reduced games, your ratings are going to remain pretty stable overall, and you have introduced a 2nd premium game (and in any event, we'll probably be even less reliant on FTA money).

We actually don't necessarily need the regular weekly byes to allow for Thursday night footy. If we stick with the current model 20 x 9 games + 3 x 6 games, you have Round 1, and the three Bye Rounds where you can play the Thursday night game between 2 sides who have had either a bye the week before or it's the first game of the season. The other 19 rounds can be spread by having 1 Thursday night team from the previous week play 1 Friday night team from the previous week to avoid multiple 5 day breaks. For example:

Round 1
Thursday Night: Richmond vs Carlton
Friday Night: Collingwood vs Hawthorn.....

Round 2
Thursday Night: Collingwood (6-day break) vs Richmond (7-day break)
Friday Night: Sydney vs Geelong

Round 3
Thursday Night: Sydney (6-day break) vs Collingwood (7-day break)
Friday Night: X vs X

And so on....

There's also the problem of ANZAC Day falling on a Thursday (which would presumably be around Round 5) where Richmond and Melbourne would play Wednesday Night, and Collingwood and Essendon on Thursday. So the following Thursday night presents the opportunity to use any combination of those 4 sides + whoever the two sides that play on the Friday of ANZAC round are - essentially six teams with 6,7 or 8 day breaks leading into that Thursday.

It can definitely be done. IMO, it's also possible that there be a few rounds of the year where two teams play on a Saturday (in different games) and then both have a 5-day break before playing on a Thursday. Collingwood and Essendon (mainly) as well as other teams over the years have battled 4 and 5 day breaks for one week in a season. As long as they're given adequate break the week after I don't think it's an issue.

I also believe that Friday Night double headers are feasible. 6:50pm AEST start in Eastern state for game 1 and then an 8:50pm AEST start in Perth. Eastern game finishes at roughly 1/4 time of the Perth game. Also means Perth teams can get more Friday night games without having the ridiculously early start to suit Eastern states. This, in turn makes fixturing Thursday night games easier as you have up to 6 teams playing on the Thursday/Friday in the previous week that can play each other with a 6/7 day break. If we swapped one Saturday arvo and one Sunday arvo game for Thursday night and Friday Night (double header) I'm sure the two night games ratings would win out. Watching a game from 8:50pm - 11:30pm in the East on a Friday night isn't really unreasonable.

Just my two cents.

 

[Our Game]

I think the AFL should be VERY careful that they dont flood the market with overkill so a few successful Thursdays is enough IMHO.
Dont forget with AFLX and the Womens matches there will be plenty of footy for all.

 

[Gigantor]

I think the AFL should be VERY careful that they dont flood the market with overkill so a few successful Thursdays is enough IMHO.
Dont forget with AFLX and the Womens matches there will be plenty of footy for all.

I would have thought that most of us would be hoping the AFLX is kept to a bare minimum.

 

[The_Wookie]

I think the AFL should be VERY careful that they dont flood the market with overkill so a few successful Thursdays is enough IMHO.
Dont forget with AFLX and the Womens matches there will be plenty of footy for all.

Got 6 states to spread it around. Thursdays could be fine as long as they dont hold them all at ANZ Stadium like the NRL do.

 

[kaypee]

I'm not a huge fan of the AFL as an organisation - bully boys' club who in my view are like banks in that they put individual enrichment ahead of stated goals - but the AFL has so many oranges that Are to be squeezed that free to air will at worst pay the same while the league pumps money out of new areas like streaming. Eyeballls are eyeballs.

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[The_Wookie]

 

[NoobPie]

You can see why the AFL would like more Thursday night games

The 6 biggest home and away rounds for ratings were:

Anzac Day round
Rounds 1 and 2
Rounds 15 to 17

Anzac day obviously has two extra "premium" games...rounds 1,2,15,16 and 17 are the only full rounds with Thursday night games

Also, the AFL has a convenient baseline to attest the impact of their rule changes against

 

[Gigantor]

Rds 1 to 2 and 21 to 26 appear to make the most difference.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

You can see why the AFL would like more Thursday night games

The 6 biggest home and away rounds for ratings were:

Anzac Day round
Rounds 1 and 2
Rounds 15 to 17

Anzac day obviously has two extra "premium" games...rounds 1,2,15,16 and 17 are the only full rounds with Thursday night games

Also, the AFL has a convenient baseline to attest the impact of their rule changes against

That's because 4 games are on 7 those weeks.

Remember 7 between 2017-22 TV deal are only covering Friday night game + 1 Saturday night game + 3.20pm EST Sunday game. They cover the 8 Thursday night games + 3 public holiday games - Easter Monday, ANZAC day, Queen's Birthday. So the rounds that 7 cover 4 games on Free TV the total ratings numbers should be higher.

For 2007-11 deal 7 and 10 show 4 of the 8 games a week ie 88 of 176 games (187 in 2011 GC)
For 2012-16 deal 7 show 4 of the 9 games (88 of 198).
For 2017-22 deal 7 effectively cover 3.5 of the 9 games (77 of 198).

Sure over the last 11 years more people have Foxtel and there are 4 or 5 million more people in Oz than the 2006 census, but that reduction in Free TV games changes the total ratings with less games on Free TV.

 

[NoobPie]

Rds 1 to 2 and 21 to 26 appear to make the most difference.

Yeah, in terms of the NRL they have the three extra rounds and in the last five rounds the Saturday night game is on FTA.

More generally they benefit from not having any overlap and, of course, having a shorter game. The first of these effects being non existent in the finals is I'm sure is a significant part of the reason the AFL dominates the NRL in finals

 

[NoobPie]

That's because 4 games are on 7 those weeks.

Remember 7 between 2017-22 TV deal are only covering Friday night game + 1 Saturday night game + 3.20pm EST Sunday game. They cover the 8 Thursday night games + 3 public holiday games - Easter Monday, ANZAC day, Queen's Birthday. So the rounds that 7 cover 4 games on Free TV the total ratings numbers should be higher.

For 2007-11 deal 7 and 10 show 4 of the 8 games a week ie 88 of 176 games (187 in 2011 GC) For 2012-16 deal 7 show 4 of the 9 games (88 of 198).
For 2017-22 deal 7 effectively cover 3.5 of the 9 games (77 of 198).

Sure over the last 11 years more people have Foxtel and there are 4 or 5 million more people in Oz than the 2006 census, but that reduction in Free TV games changes the total ratings with less games on Free TV.

Sure, that sounds right. There is also a further 12 games not broadcast live into WA and SA with local teams that would have an impact on the averages as well

I'd also strongly suspect though that a Thursday night game will rate higher than a Saturday night or Sunday arvo all else being equal

Moving to 12 Thursday night games next year it will be interesting to see what happens with TV coverage.

You would think (but not necessarily) that 7 gets all of the 5 extra Thursday night games which presumably means 5 extra Saturday night or Sunday arvo games aren't on FTA

 

[Teagueeee15]

Sure, that sounds right. There is also a further 12 games not broadcast live into WA and SA with local teams that would have an impact on the averages as well

I'd also strongly suspect though that a Thursday night game will rate higher than a Saturday night or Sunday arvo all else being equal

Moving to 12 Thursday night games next year it will be interesting to see what happens with TV coverage.

You would think (but not necessarily) that 7 gets all of the 5 extra Thursday night games which presumably means 5 extra Saturday night or Sunday arvo games aren't on FTA

With the current rights agreement, don’t Fox have the ability to on-sell up to ten of the Saturday afternoon games? That could be a way in for seven to purchase these extra games, as it makes sense that we lose one of the early Saturday slots to create the extra games in the Thursday slot.

 

[The_Wookie]

With the current rights agreement, don’t Fox have the ability to on-sell up to ten of the Saturday afternoon games? That could be a way in for seven to purchase these extra games, as it makes sense that we lose one of the early Saturday slots to create the extra games in the Thursday slot.

Fox do, but they've also confirmed they arent going to.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Fox do, but they've also confirmed they arent going to.

Is that they aren't going to sell Saturday arvo games to 10 or sell the extra 5 Thursday games to 7?

 

[Teagueeee15]

Is that they aren't going to sell Saturday arvo games to 10 or sell the extra 5 Thursday games to 7?

Ten tried to buy the Saturday games, but Fox declined (probably because the asking price wasn’t met). For extra Thursday night games, it becomes much easier for a FTA network to justify handing over what Fox would be asking.

 

[RussellEbertHandball]

Ten tried to buy the Saturday games, but Fox declined (probably because the asking price wasn’t met). For extra Thursday night games, it becomes much easier for a FTA network to justify handing over what Fox would be asking.

I knew about Foxtel trying to on sell to 10, but was trying to work out what Wookie was referring to.

 

[Teagueeee15]

I knew about Foxtel trying to on sell to 10, but was trying to work out what Wookie was referring to.

I thought Wookie was posting about the channel 10 negotiation, as that’s out in the public domain already. I think it would be premature to speculate on Foxtel ruling out selling games to seven for Thursday nights, as the AFL have yet to even formally confirm the extra Thursday games (though they are leaking it to gauge public perception of it).

It makes too much sense for both parties for a deal not to get done. Foxtel won’t have their viewers split between the two early Saturday slots and they also pick up the highest rated pay tv show for the Thursday night. While 7 don’t have to sacrifice the Sunday afternoon slot leading into the news and Sunday night programming.

 

[The_Wookie]

I knew about Foxtel trying to on sell to 10, but was trying to work out what Wookie was referring to.

yeah the saturday thing. sorry.

The Thursday night thing will be interesting. Fox might kill for a stand alone fixture, or Seven would have to compensate Fox.

 

[NoobPie]

I had two arguably cynical theories about the foxtel - channel 10 saturday games clause in the current rights deal.

1. the AFL wanted to cloud the fact they had signed a deal that would see another half a game a round taken off FTA

2. The murdochs had designs on channel ten and would pull that trigger on this contract once they'd purchased it and use it to cross promote

Anyway, I suspect that these extra games would form part of a broader negotiation that included the AFLW