List Mgmt. Traded Future Draft Pick Watch (Lions 1st Rnd '19)

Jul 21, 2010
7,690
11,187
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Philadelphia 76ers
let's hope this goes a bit better than last year's trade...


as part of a trade with some later picks, we acquired brisbane's first round pick for 2019.

i'm proposing to use this thread during next season (and offseason if it applies) to watch the progress of the value of this draft pick each round. basically, any positive or negative news that may impact the lions position on the ladder for the end of next year chuck them in here. whether that be a big win, injured players, chris fagan doing his hammy again, anything!

this thread may get buried for a while during the offseason if nothing of note happens, but i'll try remember to bump it back up for the start of next season, or if there's anything relevant to post.

what do we all think of brissy's offseason trades? neale is a massive get for them and adams will be valuable if he stays on the park.

whatever the result, at least it literally cannot get any worse than last year's trade with west coast! :$:$

edit: there's still a chance with picks being able to be swapped up until draft night that this pick could be traded, so we'll see how that plays out too.
 

gcsunsfc

Cancelled
Oct 24, 2012
7,619
7,901
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Milwaukee Bucks
https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...nal-draft-order-based-on-2018-ladder.1206928/

2019 draft board - based on 2018 ladder position

Screen Shot 2018-10-18 at 5.52.55 AM.png
 
Jul 11, 2006
5,805
6,718
Chermside
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
See Below
If anyone sees lachie neal around GC walking his dog or with his gf.
Run him over :)

Pick 2 will be ours haha
Not that I would ever condone that kind of vigilantism.

But we tried with Jono Brown and that bastard broke the car!
 

gcsunsfc

Cancelled
Oct 24, 2012
7,619
7,901
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Milwaukee Bucks
A top 10 draft pick was the basis of the
Neale trade
Hogan trade
Wingard trade
Shiel trade
(May trade)
Would have satisfied a Kelly trade

Any of those players would be in our top 5 players.
If we could get someone of similar quality in next year when cap space is ?apparently quite open.
That pick could be very valuable next year.
and we can still take a top prospect with our own 1st rounder.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
26,141
32,448
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
I F*****g hated this trade. It still looks like a likely top 5 pick to me at this stage. To climb any higher, we need a significant improvement from our young players drafted over the last three years, because it's not looking like we're not drafting any more elite talent from this or next years draft.

Next year looks like you'll add a couple of top 5 draftees and a few academy kids.
 
Aug 17, 2010
12,794
17,058
AFL Club
Gold Coast
I F*****g hated this trade. It still looks like a likely top 5 pick to me at this stage. To climb any higher, we need a significant improvement from our young players drafted over the last three years, because it's not looking like we're not drafting any more elite talent from this or next years draft.

Next year looks like you'll add a couple of top 5 draftees and a few academy kids.
To me it’s more about your injuries. You’ve had a good run this last year, but some bad luck to some key players and it could well see your progress stall. An injury list anything like ours and I’d almost guarantee us a top three pick.
 

17er

Cancelled
Oct 21, 2017
2,500
1,829
AFL Club
Gold Coast
To me it’s more about your injuries. You’ve had a good run this last year, but some bad luck to some key players and it could well see your progress stall. An injury list anything like ours and I’d almost guarantee us a top three pick.
The Suns and Lions met 3 times in 2018. In the pre-season with both teams at full strength, the Suns were the better side. By Round 5, the Suns faded late and held on through injury, with MacPherson's broken leg and May's dislocated finger leaving us short on the bench, while the Lions let yet another final term chance go begging. By the time the 2nd QClash came along, the Suns had only 27 fit players on the list to choose from whereas the Lions had 39 of 40 fit listed players running around in the AFL and NEAFL, yet the game was super close.

When I compare the Lions and Suns Lists, several things jump out. Firstly, the Suns are younger and got a lot younger still after the trade period, while the Lions are going to need to manage a lot of players through retirements and free agency. It isn't exactly a win now list, yet it is being touted as entering some sort of window of opportunity, while critics are saying the Suns have the worst list since Fitzroy in 1996. There are similarities too, with both teams carrying 9 Queensland players and looking to fill out their roster with more Academy picks next month.

Brisbane have broken even at the trade table, but haven't got a lot of Draft Capital compared to the Suns. A late 1st rounder and a couple of mid to late 2nd round picks is not a good hand, but even worse is that the Lions have given the Suns their 1st round pick in 2019 and gambled on taking Collingwood's 1st rounder, meaning next year's draft could see the Suns with 2 top 10 picks while the Lions might not pick until the end of the first round. The Suns have 2 QClashes to advance their own destiny with the pick swap, which was originally the West Coast pick we gambled on and lost spectacularly.

If the Suns can show the kind of spirit they flashed at times this year then the QClashes will be the best yet. I don't see the Lions making finals, but they will build on the competitive efforts of last season. The Suns will have caught up maturity wise with the new acquisitions lifting the on-field average age. I think the Lions have a resilient list with the main knock being that the overall talent level is not consistent, whereas the Suns have plenty of talent and another pre-season will give the youth the development they need to show their potential.
 

briztoon

Wannabe Draft Nuffie
Nov 28, 2015
26,141
32,448
Brisbane
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Other Teams
NUFC, Philadelphia 76'ers
The Suns and Lions met 3 times in 2018. In the pre-season with both teams at full strength, the Suns were the better side. By Round 5, the Suns faded late and held on through injury, with MacPherson's broken leg and May's dislocated finger leaving us short on the bench, while the Lions let yet another final term chance go begging. By the time the 2nd QClash came along, the Suns had only 27 fit players on the list to choose from whereas the Lions had 39 of 40 fit listed players running around in the AFL and NEAFL, yet the game was super close.

When I compare the Lions and Suns Lists, several things jump out. Firstly, the Suns are younger and got a lot younger still after the trade period, while the Lions are going to need to manage a lot of players through retirements and free agency. It isn't exactly a win now list, yet it is being touted as entering some sort of window of opportunity, while critics are saying the Suns have the worst list since Fitzroy in 1996. There are similarities too, with both teams carrying 9 Queensland players and looking to fill out their roster with more Academy picks next month.

Brisbane have broken even at the trade table, but haven't got a lot of Draft Capital compared to the Suns. A late 1st rounder and a couple of mid to late 2nd round picks is not a good hand, but even worse is that the Lions have given the Suns their 1st round pick in 2019 and gambled on taking Collingwood's 1st rounder, meaning next year's draft could see the Suns with 2 top 10 picks while the Lions might not pick until the end of the first round. The Suns have 2 QClashes to advance their own destiny with the pick swap, which was originally the West Coast pick we gambled on and lost spectacularly.

If the Suns can show the kind of spirit they flashed at times this year then the QClashes will be the best yet. I don't see the Lions making finals, but they will build on the competitive efforts of last season. The Suns will have caught up maturity wise with the new acquisitions lifting the on-field average age. I think the Lions have a resilient list with the main knock being that the overall talent level is not consistent, whereas the Suns have plenty of talent and another pre-season will give the youth the development they need to show their potential.
Don't have much to say, other than to comment on the bolded part. I imagine both teams have players they need to to re-sign. We (the Lions) apparently have the most out of contract players for next season of any team.

We announced yesterday the first two re-signings, with both Gardiner and Big O signing on long term. I doubt there'll be any issues resigning the players we want to keep. There's possibly 7 or 8 senior and rookie listed players that we'll let go, as we're still phasing out players signed to long term contracts by the previous administration, and there might be a couple of younger players let go as they haven't come on like we hoped.

As for having to manage players through retirement, huh? Hodge is the only likely retirement next season, unless Frost retires due to repeated concussions before he's delisted at seasons end. After Hodge, we only have three key senior players to "manage" over the next few seasons in Zorko, Rich and Martin. It's not like our list faces a potential crisis due to an exodus of retirees.
 

17er

Cancelled
Oct 21, 2017
2,500
1,829
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Don't have much to say, other than to comment on the bolded part. I imagine both teams have players they need to to re-sign. We (the Lions) apparently have the most out of contract players for next season of any team.

We announced yesterday the first two re-signings, with both Gardiner and Big O signing on long term. I doubt there'll be any issues resigning the players we want to keep. There's possibly 7 or 8 senior and rookie listed players that we'll let go, as we're still phasing out players signed to long term contracts by the previous administration, and there might be a couple of younger players let go as they haven't come on like we hoped.

As for having to manage players through retirement, huh? Hodge is the only likely retirement next season, unless Frost retires due to repeated concussions before he's delisted at seasons end. After Hodge, we only have three key senior players to "manage" over the next few seasons in Zorko, Rich and Martin. It's not like our list faces a potential crisis due to an exodus of retirees.
Yeah, you've got about 20 players coming off contract next year, but Collingwood had the same this year and they've managed to fit Beams in without really having to offload talent. My point about the retirees and "managing" the process is that you have 6 blokes in the 29 to 35 range next season which would be very hard to replace if they were all to go at once. North Melbourne "managed" several of their players retirements a couple of years and it cost them dearly in terms of leadership and morale because the club announced it on the eve of finals then the following season lost their first 6 games after going straight out of finals. A player like Hodge will finish at the time of his choosing, but with Zorko the club might need to give him a little push - have you noticed how many small mids/forwards the list has now? Lachie Neale, Lincoln McCarthy come in after last year's prize recruitment of Charlie Cameron, then add Lewy Taylor (who will one day replace Zork) and Allen Christensen, so the end may come sooner for him than he realises.
 

gcsunsfc

Cancelled
Oct 24, 2012
7,619
7,901
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Milwaukee Bucks
I wouldn’t be surprised if Christensen ends up retiring before Zorko.
He started late so may have an extra few years on those legs. Still got great speed - will be they key to any longevity for him. I reckon he’ll play - and be good for another 3-4 years. Brisbane will want to be contending in that time frame so won’t be pushing him out the door if he is still, ability wise, in their best 22.
 
Aug 7, 2013
7,938
17,011
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Rams, 76's, Brewers
To me it’s more about your injuries. You’ve had a good run this last year, but some bad luck to some key players and it could well see your progress stall. An injury list anything like ours and I’d almost guarantee us a top three pick.
Injuries hurt all clubs if they occur. If they have a reasonable run again then I think they’ll end up 8-12. McCluggage, Berry, Witherden, Hipwood, Rayner, Andrews etc should all still improve. A pick between 6-10 would make me happy.
 
Dec 1, 2013
9,588
7,835
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
Yeah, you've got about 20 players coming off contract next year, but Collingwood had the same this year and they've managed to fit Beams in without really having to offload talent. My point about the retirees and "managing" the process is that you have 6 blokes in the 29 to 35 range next season which would be very hard to replace if they were all to go at once. North Melbourne "managed" several of their players retirements a couple of years and it cost them dearly in terms of leadership and morale because the club announced it on the eve of finals then the following season lost their first 6 games after going straight out of finals. A player like Hodge will finish at the time of his choosing, but with Zorko the club might need to give him a little push - have you noticed how many small mids/forwards the list has now? Lachie Neale, Lincoln McCarthy come in after last year's prize recruitment of Charlie Cameron, then add Lewy Taylor (who will one day replace Zork) and Allen Christensen, so the end may come sooner for him than he realises.
You have made it seem like we have this plethora of players nearly at retirement which just isn't true. You said 6 players bewteen 29years old and 35 which is true, however only 2 of them are over 30 years old. Hodge will retire next year and Martin has a fair few years still at the top as he is so durable. Same goes with Zorko, doesn't get injured so he can stay at the top.

All these smaller players you said - They are spread over the ground, some are forwards, some are midfielders. Christensen will most likely be going down back to add some run. You can't just only have tall players. I had originally hated this trade as it seemed we got reamed, however with the addition of Lyons, l think it is a decent deal now as l reckon we will be going up the ladder (pending injuries)
 

17er

Cancelled
Oct 21, 2017
2,500
1,829
AFL Club
Gold Coast
You have made it seem like we have this plethora of players nearly at retirement which just isn't true. You said 6 players bewteen 29years old and 35 which is true, however only 2 of them are over 30 years old. Hodge will retire next year and Martin has a fair few years still at the top as he is so durable. Same goes with Zorko, doesn't get injured so he can stay at the top.

All these smaller players you said - They are spread over the ground, some are forwards, some are midfielders. Christensen will most likely be going down back to add some run. You can't just only have tall players. I had originally hated this trade as it seemed we got reamed, however with the addition of Lyons, l think it is a decent deal now as l reckon we will be going up the ladder (pending injuries)
I haven't made anything seem like that, I've simply said IF they all go at once you'll have a vacuum of leadership and experience. Phasing them all out over 2 or 3 seasons won't hurt so much, but it is still going to be rough. The other point was that your draft capital isn't going to be awesome this year or next at a time when you could be replacing the retirees in the draft without having to play them. Remember, it was a COMPARISON. If I had contrasted your list with Carlton then I'd have said you don't have as much to worry about with ageing issues at the top of the list. Except I was comparing your list to the Suns and you've got age issues that we just aren't going to have on that scale until 2022, which was always the expectation when Scott Clayton went to the Draft in 2010.
 

bungalow_bill

Norm Smith Medallist
Dec 11, 2010
9,974
11,239
AFL Club
Brisbane Lions
With the addition of Lyons our first rounder could be around 9-10. Good chance the Pies drop back a bit and the first round picks are about the same. I'm hoping anyway! Like most Lions fans happy with the trade as it helped us wrangle two first rounders from the Pies. Even more so with the addition of Lyons.

Good luck in 2019!
 
Oct 24, 2008
14,766
20,310
Mermaid Beach
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
GWS, Celtics, 76ers
With the addition of Lyons our first rounder could be around 9-10. Good chance the Pies drop back a bit and the first round picks are about the same. I'm hoping anyway! Like most Lions fans happy with the trade as it helped us wrangle two first rounders from the Pies. Even more so with the addition of Lyons.

Good luck in 2019!
It’s looking like a good result for both clubs. With our luck at trading future picks you may just win the flag. I look forward to watching you guys play this coming season
 
Jul 21, 2010
7,690
11,187
Gold Coast
AFL Club
Gold Coast
Other Teams
Philadelphia 76ers
time to bring this one back to the top now the season has started. brissy got off to a good start round 1, need some more losses to get that high draft pick.
 
Freo, Collingwood and Beams trapped us. Can't remember the exact details but we managed to get ourselves out of it by swapping our 1st rounder for some of your picks and then used those picks to give to Freo for Neale iirc.
Thanks.
Trade period I was focused on the Beams deal, and didn't pay attention to what was going on with picks for GC.
 
Back