Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[BORIS332]

You're right re. Cripps in checking. It just felt like longer.

Have I made a Clark/Docherty comparison?

I haven't featured Clark as one of my player focus players and I don't recall having him inside my top 20 power rankings. So I'm not sure where you got that from. Clark isn't as quick or as prolific a ball winner as Docherty. He's closer to Nic Newman really if I'm thinking of a name top of mind, or a better version of. Good kick, productive, intercepts. He's capable without being the elite player clubs seem to think/hope he is from what I've seen.

Just out of curiosity, who do you prefer out of McLennan and Clark given they play a similar role?

 

[DBLUES]

Hi Knightmare,
I really hoped the blues would somehow retain or gain a 2nd round pick to snag Ned Mchenry.
Apart from another mid, we really need a skilled pressure forward.
Where do you see Mchenry falling?
Could he eventually get enough of a tank to play a midfield role?
He is also a great character and best buds with Walsh

 

[Knightmare]

Just out of curiosity, who do you prefer out of McLennan and Clark given they play a similar role?

Clark. Not by a whole lot. Very similar players. McLennan can intercept and use it in his own right and can also shutdown. Clark slightly better performed and a slightly better version.

Knightmare your thoughts on Noah Gown after the back end of the tac cup season ??

One of the 20 best players in this draft and the best key position player outside of Lukosius and the King's. Like him a lot. Terrific mark and strong contested grab, reads it as well as any in the pool. I'd back him in to develop at either end and feel he's one of this years underrated players with his performances of comparable quality to Ben King from when he hit his stride late July.

 

[Knightmare]

Hi Knightmare,
I really hoped the blues would somehow retain or gain a 2nd round pick to snag Ned Mchenry.
Apart from another mid, we really need a skilled pressure forward.
Where do you see Mchenry falling?
Could he eventually get enough of a tank to play a midfield role?
He is also a great character and best buds with Walsh

McHenry should go 20-40.

He was the elite pressure player of the u18 champs as a forward and has the endurance to push up the wings. His endurance is as good as any in the pool. So they're the two spots he can get used.

He's a good character guy. A different cat, but a likeable extrovert with fire in the belly.

 

[BORIS332]

Clark. Not by a whole lot. Very similar players. McLennan can intercept and use it in his own right and can also shutdown. Clark slightly better performed and a slightly better version.



One of the 20 best players in this draft and the best key position player outside of Lukosius and the King's. Like him a lot. Terrific mark and strong contested grab, reads it as well as any in the pool. I'd back him in to develop at either end and feel he's one of this years underrated players with his performances of comparable quality to Ben King from when he hit his stride late July.

Can you give a player comparison for Gown?

 

[Knightmare]

Can you give a player comparison for Gown?

See power rankings on page 1 for comparison and strengths/weaknesses.

 

[Mighty_sainter]

What are your thoughts on the saints considering Jye Caldwell at pick 4? We obviously must rate him very highly. He played some really good games of footy last year and showed a lot as a bottom ager from the games I saw! Cheers

 

[joop]

Knightmare if you were in charge of the saints would you take pick 4 to the draft or trade it for 2 first round picks?
Lots of talk we are taking Max King which I don’t understand personally, unless the club have come to terms with the fact Paddy is never gonna make it.

 

[Knightmare]

What are your thoughts on the saints considering Jye Caldwell at pick 4? We obviously must rate him very highly. He played some really good games of footy last year and showed a lot as a bottom ager from the games I saw! Cheers

Not to say it won't happen, but it's too early to take him based on the games I've seen.

His game v Western was underwhelming then got hurt the next week v Murray.

Hasn't played enough and when he has, it hasn't been to a pick 4 in draft standard.

A lot of the evaluation is based on school footy in 2017 and otherwise 2015/2016 form when he was considered one of the best of the age group.

I feel the top 10 conversation is appropriate. But pick 4 when you've got Lukosius/Rankine/Smith/Walsh/Blakey and the King's in the draft? I just can't justify it on the games I've seen.

 

[Knightmare]

Knightmare if you were in charge of the saints would you take pick 4 to the draft or trade it for 2 first round picks?
Lots of talk we are taking Max King which I don’t understand personally, unless the club have come to terms with the fact Paddy is never gonna make it.

I can't say I have any confidence in Paddy on what he has shown to date, but with that said, if I have pick 4, Izak Rankine is the guy I'm taking.

Whether I'd move that pick depends on what I can get. If Adelaide offer picks 8 and 13 I'd consider it conditional on my feel going in being that Bailey Smith will be there as the midfielder I project as the best in this draft. Otherwise maybe a Port Adelaide if they want to move up a spot, I'd ask for 5 + 15 to put to the test how badly they want to move up.

 

[Peter Wallis]

Who do you think the Bulldogs should take at pick 7?
My thoughts are if Smith is available we nab him as best available & if he is gone then Ben King if still there would be a great get given our dearth of quality KPD's.

 

[Knightmare]

Who do you think the Bulldogs should take at pick 7?
My thoughts are if Smith is available we nab him as best available & if he is gone then Ben King if still there would be a great get given our dearth of quality KPD's.

Smith is the player the Dogs should take at 7. He's the best player available if there.

I actually like the key defenders the Dogs have, but King at that choice is a good get if Smith isn't there.

 

[Peter Wallis]

Smith is the player the Dogs should take at 7. He's the best player available if there.

I actually like the key defenders the Dogs have, but King at that choice is a good get if Smith isn't there.

I worry about our defence given that Adams is now gone & Roughead who could fill in there when required is now at Collingwood.
Morris who is undersized is still our best option as a KPD while Cordy & Roberts have been treading water since 2016.
Given all of that, I would be more than happy for King to slip through to us.

 

[Knightmare]

I worry about our defence given that Adams is now gone & Roughead who could fill in there when required is now at Collingwood.
Morris who is undersized is still our best option as a KPD while Cordy & Roberts have been treading water since 2016.
Given all of that, I would be more than happy for King to slip through to us.

I like Lewis Young. I feel like he's a best 22 player in the waiting and could be the Dogs best key defender. Trengove can play back. Naughton can come good and should take another step up in 2019. Morris is still there. I view all those guys better than Cordy and Roberts.

That's a lot of numbers, and four of them I look at as best 22 players.

 

[Peter Wallis]

I like Lewis Young. I feel like he's a best 22 player in the waiting and could be the Dogs best key defender. Trengove can play back. Naughton can come good and should take another step up in 2019. Morris is still there. I view all those guys better than Cordy and Roberts.

That's a lot of numbers, and four of them I look at as best 22 players.

Fair call, I agree Naughton has real upside & I forgot about Young who has some raw talent.

 

[Andre the Giant]

Smith is the player the Dogs should take at 7. He's the best player available if there.

I actually like the key defenders the Dogs have, but King at that choice is a good get if Smith isn't there.

I think he’s the best midfielder full stop! He has the breakaway speed that really sets him apart.

 

[Knightmare]

I think he’s the best midfielder full stop! He has the breakaway speed that really sets him apart.

I've made both points in pretty much every post referring to Smith.

 

[MartinLifts130]

hi there,

How would you rate Welsh's current prospect with Aish in his year, and Toumpus in his year? you listed contested ability as one of Welsh's strength, but given size will this translate into him being a dominant stoppage player?

Some similarities there imo. reckon Welsh is only a 40% chance at best to make it into top 50 midfielder in the comp when he's in his prime.

If carlton goes into the draft without trading and with pick 1 and pick 1 alone in the first round then they've already lost.

 

[Knightmare]

hi there,

How would you rate Welsh's current prospect with Aish in his year, and Toumpus in his year? you listed contested ability as one of Welsh's strength, but given size will this translate into him being a dominant stoppage player?

Some similarities there imo. reckon Welsh is only a 40% chance at best to make it into top 50 midfielder in the comp when he's in his prime.

If carlton goes into the draft without trading and with pick 1 and pick 1 alone in the first round then they've already lost.

Walsh is a lot more advanced than both. While light, he's a high volume contested ball winner who can get you 30+ disposals, but will get you 10+ contested possessions. That's the most distinct difference. His endurance is also much better so I'd also claim on the outside he's more reliable.

Walsh can be something closer to Josh Kelly. I don't like his skills as much, without being bad, but otherwise little separates them and at the same age/stage they're comparable.

My predict is prime Walsh will be a best 30 in the game mid. I don't feel like he'll be top 10, but I don't see him anywhere outside the top 50 once he's established.

The only thing I will agree with you on is if Carlton use pick 1 on Walsh, my review will be unfavourable unless they do something exceptional with their two late picks, though not because it's only one early pick, but because I have three guys I rate ahead of Walsh in Lukosius/Rankine/Smith. I'd in their position either just take Lukoius, move down a couple of spots for Rankine, or move down to around pick 6ish for Smith, so as to maximise value gained per pick.

 

[HARKER]

The only thing I will agree with you on is if Carlton use pick 1 on Walsh, my review will be unfavourable unless they do something exceptional with their two late picks, though not because it's only one early pick, but because I have three guys I rate ahead of Walsh in Lukosius/Rankine/Smith. I'd in their position either just take Lukoius, move down a couple of spots for Rankine, or move down to around pick 6ish for Smith, so as to maximise value gained per pick.

Get the review over and done with then as Walsh will be read out as the number one, unless something drastic eventuates, which it won't.

 

[Knightmare]

Get the review over and done with then as Walsh will be read out as the number one, unless something drastic eventuates, which it won't.

Who knows? Carlton may hit home runs with their two late picks?

Or maybe Adelaide or Port Adelaide cough up a combination of picks too good to refuse?

There is also the rookie draft that happens on the same day, so that will be included as part of my review this year. Maybe Carlton identify some good mature agers who can slot straight into the clubs best 22?

I'm not prepaired to write any club off still almost a month out from the draft.

 

[HARKER]

Who knows? Carlton may hit home runs with their two late picks?

Or maybe Adelaide or Port Adelaide cough up a combination of picks too good to refuse?

There is also the rookie draft that happens on the same day, so that will be included as part of my review this year. Maybe Carlton identify some good mature agers who can slot straight into the clubs best 22?

I'm not prepaired to write any club off still almost a month out from the draft.

Clubs fall in love with players and find it hard to let go.
Don't think Adelaide have enough currency to lure the #1 away from Carlton and somehow I doubt Port would.....but who knows?

Still feel The Saints #4 being targeted with the good part for them being, that they may still end up getting their man, with a little extra on top.

 

[Knightmare]

Clubs fall in love with players and find it hard to let go.
Don't think Adelaide have enough currency to lure the #1 away from Carlton and somehow I doubt Port would.....but who knows?

Still feel The Saints #4 being targeted with the good part for them being, that they may still end up getting their man, with a little extra on top.

What if Adelaide offer 8, 13, 16 and 21?

They'd probably more likely ask Gold Coast knowing Carlton want Walsh at one, but if they came knocking with that offer. I'd take the x4 picks.

x3? You'd want to be certain Smith is there.

Or what about if Port offer 5,10 and 15? That's a deal I'd agree to. Smith will be there at 5. Rankine may be at 5 for all you know. Maybe 10/15 can then be moved up to 6 to get Smith also if you want Rankine at 5.

If ever you can move down the draft, still get your guy. They're the deals you want to agree to.

 

[HARKER]

What if Adelaide offer 8, 13, 16 and 21?

They'd probably more likely ask Gold Coast knowing Carlton want Walsh at one, but if they came knocking with that offer. I'd take the x4 picks.

x3? You'd want to be certain Smith is there.

Or what about if Port offer 5,10 and 15? That's a deal I'd agree to. Smith will be there at 5. Rankine may be at 5 for all you know. Maybe 10/15 can then be moved up to 6 to get Smith also if you want Rankine at 5.

If ever you can move down the draft, still get your guy. They're the deals you want to agree to.

I wouldn't take any picks without being able to put a name to them.
The premium players look likely to be gone by that pick #8 which may end up being be a #9 or a #10.
Carlton currently have 36 senior players on the list and want BSilvagni on the main list. They wouldn't take, nor likely want, four picks anyway.
I understand that some can at a distance suggest that Carlton need as many picks as they can get, but this is really a very shallow view of the list and the management of a list as a whole. The CFC want premium players and not just more kids to play musical chairs with.

By the time live trading comes about, I wouldn't mind betting that several clubs at the top end get cold feet at least in this first year or two.
Can see live trading being pushed for that 34 and then maybe later in the first and second rounds.

 

[Bicks]

What if Adelaide offer 8, 13, 16 and 21?

I have total respect for Hamish Ogilvie but he would lose me and I'd not hesitate to suggest every Adelaide supporter were he to be that foolhardy.
With respect even the notion you're putting forward is just plain ridiculous. Will not happen.

That range of picks in this particularly strong draft can set us up for the next decade and bring the age demographic of our list and top end talent down considerably.