Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)

[Chism]

The more i look at Magic Circles form and replays of his Chester Cup 3700m and Henry Stakes wins over 3260m in which he demolished the field by 6 lengths and still going away from them which included Red Verdon i just cannot see him being beaten.

15mm of rain expected tomorrow and more on race day only brings his odds in as well.

Just Bet Boosted his odds from 10-1 to 13-1 on Bet Easy as i reckon he comes in to about 8-1 on raceday.

 

[Gavin Excell]

The more i look at Magic Circles form and replays of his Chester Cup 3700m and Henry Stakes wins over 3260m in which he demolished the field by 6 lengths and still going away from them which included Red Verdon i just cannot see him being beaten.

15mm of rain expected tomorrow and more on race day only brings his odds in as well.

Just Bet Boosted his odds from 10-1 to 13-1 on Bet Easy as i reckon he comes in to about 8-1 on raceday.

Ive always been a little suspect on those internationals with the 3600-4000m form. They generally aren't quick enough

 

[toxic]

All roads currently leading to Muntahaa for me

 

[Chism]

Ive always been a little suspect on those internationals with the 3600-4000m form. They generally aren't quick enough

Watch the Henry Stakes win over 3260m.

 

[99 Problems]

Stats say it is no chance then.

Horses that run in the Cup and do not win or place on their first effort have shocking records after that when returning for another crack.

99% of the time if you don't win on your first try and are having another crack you are not winning it at all and check the stats! ( Brew being the only exception in the 1% )

So virtually put a line through all the horses that have run in the Cup before and done nothing as they are not winning chances.

Up until last year people used precedent to say internationals couldn’t win the cup first start in Australia. 12 months later and the 2nd, 3rd and 4th favourites are first up here and plenty are claiming that’s the right path to the Cup now. Not saying I’m with Marmelo but with this new era in the cup a lot of old stats and precedents that have stood over the years might not hold up in the modern race.

 

[Aussie Assault]

The Cup has been kind to me the last couple of years but I'm struggling to find much this year. Marmelo probably on top. Has enough form leading in, ran well last year fresh from the back in the Caulfield Cup on a leaders track, drawn well and should be ridden quieter than last year. He was ridden upside down last year and Bowman took off from the 800m

Have Finche at $51 also from before the Geelong Cup.

 

[iluvparis]

Ok so now that the final field is out and settled it is looking a very weak/thin edition for mine. I have marked them:

Clearly on top
Yucatan

Biggest Danger
Cross Counter

Some Chance
A Prince Of Arran
Muntahaa
Rostropovich
Cliffsofmoher

Rough Chance
Finche
Magic Circle
Best Solution

Have Yucatan clearly on top - his Herbert Power win was one of the best trials you'll see and is recent - if he repeats that and stays the trip he will take a power of beating and looks a great EW bet. Cross Counter is superbly weighted and profiles the most similar to last years winner - if he is over his issue he is in it up to his ears. They are the only two I'll be backing to win with a few shekels EW Rostro given he is well weighted on his European form. The rest go in multis.

Got to love the laughable push for Muntahaa now though - is poison unders and going to start a similar price to Mutual Regard from the looks of it. Yes his Ebor win was dominant but the subsequent form out of that race has been absolutely appalling.

 

[iluvparis]

And my thoughts on the current market

Best Solution - fair
Cliffs - fair
Magic Circle - posion unders
Chestnut Coat - fair
Muntahaa - poison unders
Sound Check - unders
Barman - win price unders
Ace High - fair
Marmelo - unders
Avilius - unders
Yucatan - overs
Auvray - who cares
Finche - touch of overs
Red Cardinal - unders
Venger Masque - unders
Stormo - unders
Prince of Arran - fair towards overs
Nakeeta - who cares
Sir Chrles - who cares
Zacada - who cares
Runaway - far
Youngsar - unders towards posion unders
Cross Counter - Overs
Rostropovich Overs

 

[iluvparis]

And for moby's now completely out of date poll

3 - Yucatan
2 - Cross Counter
1 - A Prince Of Arran

 

[Lethality]

Have you got the daily mortality rates for non racing horses so we can compare?

I would only bother with legitimate comparisons.

 

[iluvparis]

What time are preview shows on Sky and Racing.com?

 

[99 Problems]

What time are preview shows on Sky and Racing.com?

Racing.com preview is at 9:00pm AEDT tonight

 

[Viva la Mattner]

What time are preview shows on Sky and Racing.com?

8:30 pm (My Time) so 9pm you
Also Get On! Tommorow night is on too

 

[cynical]

got no clue this year, such a weak field

favourite has had one good race and a terrible barrier

nothing else really stands out

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Ok so now that the final field is out and settled it is looking a very weak/thin edition for mine. I have marked them:

Clearly on top
Yucatan

Biggest Danger
Cross Counter

Some Chance
A Prince Of Arran
Muntahaa
Rostropovich
Cliffsofmoher

Rough Chance
Finche
Magic Circle
Best Solution

Have Yucatan clearly on top - his Herbert Power win was one of the best trials you'll see and is recent - if he repeats that and stays the trip he will take a power of beating and looks a great EW bet. Cross Counter is superbly weighted and profiles the most similar to last years winner - if he is over his issue he is in it up to his ears. They are the only two I'll be backing to win with a few shekels EW Rostro given he is well weighted on his European form. The rest go in multis.

Got to love the laughable push for Muntahaa now though - is poison unders and going to start a similar price to Mutual Regard from the looks of it. Yes his Ebor win was dominant but the subsequent form out of that race has been absolutely appalling.

My opinion differs abit Paris

I rate Yucatan as poison unders
. Beat spuds in Herbert power, with Benalla form FFS

. Pulled up sore

. Running from the carpark

Magic Circle has no distance query, has a turn of foot and as such can adapt easily to our style of staying races

Re: Your potting of Muntahaa, you reference Mutual Regard, fair point but on the other hand Muntahaa is coming here off a run much impressive than Heartbreak City which nearly won the cup much more recently than Mutual Regards flop

You don't give Chestnut Coat a chance? A rough chance for mine, forgive Caulfield Cup run off a crap tempo and a wet track, has been training the house down since and always respect the Japanese IMO

 

[The GOAT]

My opinion differs abit Paris

I rate Yucatan as poison unders
. Beat spuds in Herbert power, with Benalla form FFS

. Pulled up sore

. Running from the carpark

Magic Circle has no distance query, has a turn of foot and as such can adapt easily to our style of staying races

Re: Your potting of Muntahaa, you reference Mutual Regard, fair point but on the other hand Muntahaa is coming here off a run much impressive than Heartbreak City which nearly won the cup much more recently than Mutual Regards flop

You don't give Chestnut Coat a chance? A rough chance for mine, forgive Caulfield Cup run off a crap tempo and a wet track, has been training the house down since and always respect the Japanese IMO

Yucatan’s form includes putting 6L on prince of arran, who has run well since and is a rough chance of winning. Next line of the market includes magic circle and muntahaa who have genuinely beaten nothing in their ‘impressive’ wins. Happy to be on Yucatan.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Here's a question, lots of talk about a weak edition and average field...

Hypothetical question: if all had of gone to plan with Hamada and Latrobe where would they be sitting in rankings?
Both would be balls deep IMO

 

[Chism]

My opinion differs abit Paris

I rate Yucatan as poison unders
. Beat spuds in Herbert power, with Benalla form FFS

. Pulled up sore

. Running from the carpark

Magic Circle has no distance query, has a turn of foot and as such can adapt easily to our style of staying races

Re: Your potting of Muntahaa, you reference Mutual Regard, fair point but on the other hand Muntahaa is coming here off a run much impressive than Heartbreak City which nearly won the cup much more recently than Mutual Regards flop

You don't give Chestnut Coat a chance? A rough chance for mine, forgive Caulfield Cup run off a crap tempo and a wet track, has been training the house down since and always respect the Japanese IMO

I agree fully and i also like Chestnut Coat but the forecast for it is terrible but i will still have a small saver on it and put it into my exotics with Magic Circle the banker and/or rover.

15mm of rain coming tomorrow with a soaking for Melbourne all day and expected to continue on race day.

 

[Viva la Mattner]

Yucatan’s form includes putting 6L on prince of arran, who has run well since and is a rough chance of winning. Next line of the market includes magic circle and muntahaa who have genuinely beaten nothing in their ‘impressive’ wins. Happy to be on Yucatan.

Go back through its form, it's 1 win (yes 1) in the past 2 years other than the HP against spuds was over 2000m
I think he'll be gasping for air around the 350-400m mark.

At this point Magic Circle still has plenty in the tank, ready to let down at the clock tower

 

[Viva la Mattner]

I agree fully and i also like Chestnut Coat but the forecast for it is terrible but i will stay have a small saver on it and put it into my exotics with Magic Circle the banker and/or rover.

15mm of rain coming tomorrow with a soaking for Melbourne all day and expected to continue on race day.

View attachment 581326

Possible scratching then Chism? If it's too heavy they wouldn't risk it

 

[The GOAT]

Here's a question, lots of talk about a weak edition and average field...

Hypothetical question: if all had of gone to plan with Hamada and Latrobe where would they be sitting in rankings?
Both would be balls deep IMO

If I had to guess, Latrobe would be 2nd line with CC. Hamada about $13.

 

[Chism]

Possible scratching then Chism? If it's too heavy they wouldn't risk it

Maybe.

Would be a shame for connections but no one can control the weather and it would of cost them a heap to bring him over and he has not made a cent yet.

 

[come on oliver]

Sorry team Yucatan. Destroyed its chance with a lousy 5er

 

[Hamingja]

Sorry team Yucatan. Destroyed its chance with a lousy 5er

View attachment 581328

The best thing is you don't have to worry about backing it. At least it is only pocket change if it gets beat. Mine was a bonus bet so not even my money.

Pretty much why the bookies will have Yucatan short despite the draw, every man and their dog has doubles into it.

 

[Jugada]

I have Yucatan and Cross Counter clearly on top. We haven't seen anything here better than what Yucatan did in the Herbert Power and the form out of the race isn't as weak as being made out with the 2nd and 3rd horses running the quinella in the Lexus. He is a Galileo too so no reason to think he wont run out the trip.

Cross Counter brings in the strongest overseas form as well and is extremely well weighted. Slight risk at the trip and minor setback last month isnt great but still clearly the next best horse.

Next best i have Cliffs of Moher, Magic Circle, Muntahaa, Marmelo and Finche. Putting a line through Magic Circle and Muntahaa at the odds though.

Roughies ill be including
Who Shot Thebarman always runs well in the Cup and loves Flemington/2 miles. Closed off very nicely in the MV Cup too.
Sound Check can stay 2 miles, has Best Solution form and was never a chance in the CC when settling last.


Then there is Chestnut Coat. If its dry then it goes in everything and is my on top pick, if its wet then i likely leave it out of everything. Just a bit of give in the ground will be a head *