Racing Melbourne Cup 2018 and all Cup Day discussion.(Posting of bets after the race will be carded)
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Chism
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Weir doping factor.
think I'm leaning towards magic circle, only real horse that races the distance,
hasnt raced against quality and no aussie debut but those last 2 wins were pretty impressive and given this is a pretty weak field think i might stick with it
dont like betting on horses with only 1 good win or horses that have only done well at 2400, Melbourne cup always has plenty of false favourites with good 2400m form
Yucatan had 1 great win but what else has it done?
cross counter, great weight but again only 2400m races mainly small fields, doesnt look overly quick
others look pretty inconsistent
hasnt raced against quality and no aussie debut but those last 2 wins were pretty impressive and given this is a pretty weak field think i might stick with it
dont like betting on horses with only 1 good win or horses that have only done well at 2400, Melbourne cup always has plenty of false favourites with good 2400m form
Yucatan had 1 great win but what else has it done?
cross counter, great weight but again only 2400m races mainly small fields, doesnt look overly quick
others look pretty inconsistent
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My preview of the race runner by runner.
1. Best Solution
Did it tough to win the Caulfield Cup. Risk at the 3200m on breeding. 9 wins from 22 starts including 3 G1s, a G2 and 3 G3s on good and soft ground. Up against it historically with his weight but clearly the best horse in the race and probably isn’t actually in that bad comparatively against a lot of them. Drawn well, tough, Godolphin have said the Melbourne Cup was always the target so that may or may not mitigate your 3200m concerns depending on your perspective. Going to risk for the win due to weight and distance queries but can see it running a similar race to Criterion. Definite inclusion in multiples.
2. The Cliffsofmoher
Ran on ok off a slow pace in the Caulfield Cup without being a threat. Moody gave the horse a big clip afterwards for being non genuine. Following the same path to the cup as Johanees Vermeer last year although will need to carry 2kg more. Also like JV he hasn’t won beyond ~2000m which I would have concerns with as Green Moon off a very slow pace is the only recent horse to win the cup without winning over 2400m+ before the MC. Has the class and the connections know what they are doing. With the weight, distance and being a bit of a non-winner happy to go around for the win. Drawn well. Consider for multiples.
3. Magic Circle
I don’t know much about the trainer but it would appear he has given the horse the “Darren Weir polish” since joining the stable two starts ago. With 56kg it is terribly weighted when you compare what it has done to Best Solution for example. English form over 3000m+ traditionally is not the profile to take into the Melbourne Cup and win. Owner reckons it is better than Mount Athos and you know it will stay the trip. Can’t see it winning personally but in a thin year has to go in the multiples.
4. Chestnut Coat
Terrible in the Caulfield Cup on the slow. In Japan went from running in handicaps to a 2nd in a G2 and then a 5th beaten 1.8L in the Tenno Sho out of nowhere basically. People have it improving on a firmer track but with a bit of rain around in Melbourne leave me out of something that was beaten 10L at its last start.
5. Muntahaa
Promised a bit as a younger horse before losing its way a little. Rediscovered some form in its last 3 starts. Won the Ebor impressively albeit with an unconventional ride. He would have more class than your average Ebor winner. Previous form around Marmelo, Duretto and Best Solution in the UK which you can transfer across somewhat. Comes down to how well he has settled in Australia but from a gun yard and a decent draw I have him as a winning chance.
6. Sound Check
Ok form in Germany throughout its career with no real line on the quality of those races until two back it was beaten only 0.3L to Best Solution in a G1 over 2400m at level weights. Based on that must have some ability but like the Japanese horse I have no interest in something beaten 10L at its last start in the Caulfield Cup which would suggest it has not settled as well in Australia.
7. Who Shot Thebarman
He has been a warrior over his career but it has a Red Cadeaux kind of feel to it this year. The Sydney Cup win would have been a great swansong. I notice one of the owners is D O’Leary. “I run 10 year old horses in tough 2 mile races, I’m an ……..”
8. Ace High
Winner of the Vic Derby last spring and 2nd in the ATC Derby in the autumn, probably be right in the market for the race in the pre internationals era so let’s not go back there. It’s last 3 Sydney runs before the Caulfield Cup were actually pretty good. Beaten 11.4L in the Caulfield Cup so add it to the absolutely no interest pile when it would need a remarkable form turnaround to feature here.
9. Marmelo
Everyone knows the story here. Ran home well in the Caulfield Cup to become last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite. Went forward in the cup from a wideish barrier and didn’t give a yelp. This time they have skipped the prep run and gone straight to the cup. Drawn well and potential improver if it is given a quieter run like in the Caulfield Cup. If you draw a line through the winner of the Kergolay it is going 4L worse than last year but apparently the track in France for the Kergolay this year was rock hard and the trainer said the horse didn’t like it and subsequent meetings have been abandoned due to the state of the track. The winner of the Kergolay this year may also have improved given it has since come out and won a G1 in France. If we get a bit of rain to take the sting out of the ground on cup day that would be a positive for him. Still profiles well as a winner if you forgive last year’s failure. At 2-3 times the price of last year I am happy to stay on the wagon while everyone else jumps off. Winning chance for mine.
10. Avilius
Became flavour of the month off some second grade Sydney races and fell in in a weak Bart Cummings. Cox Plate wasn’t too bad I guess. Big query on his ability to stay 3200m based on his sire being a sprinter. Leaving it out of everything. See you next Tuesday Glyn.
11. Yucatan
Killed them in the Herbert Power with the Lexus franking the Herbert Power form. I’ve heard a bit of poo pooing of its Euro form but it finished a 1L third to Rekindling in a G3 last year as a 3yo, a 1.95L 3rd to The Cliffsofmoher in a G2 this year over 2000m, and won a G3 in Ireland in July. Likewise there have been queries on him staying the trip but in a post Zabeel world, Galileos are about as good as it gets for the cup from a popular bloodline perspective. Wide draw is not ideal but with 54.5kg it is not terminal if JMac can get it into the 3 wide with cover running trail. Clear top pick.
12. Auvray
Ran on ok in the Newcastle Cup and The Metrop for easier, failed on a heavy track last time, how the hell did this qualify for the cup? I know the internationals can get a saloon pass for running a place in certain races but he has been here for 3 years now so it must be based on his Aus form?
13. Finche
This guy actually profiles ok for a progressive stayer for the cup IMO. I backed him in the Geelong Cup though and he had a good run and was entitled to do better if he was going to step up to Melbourne Cup level. Bowman jumps off, some query on the Frankels over 3200m, and he had an awkward looking stride. Not the worst value shot for multiples I suppose but not a winning chance for mine and I will go around.
14. Red Cardinal
Beaten 11 lengths last year and has gone like a busted since. No.
15. Vengeur Masque
I think he has been 25th in the order the last two years. Moroney has always thought this was a cup horse but couldn’t make the field. Qualified this year and has had his whole prep geared towards the cup. By the same sire as Protectionist and Almandin so he should have no issues running a strong 3200m which can’t be said for a few runners this year. In the Caulfield Cup he lost a lot of ground getting shuffled back when Our Taj Mahal took off early but after balancing up he was strong to the line again. Heard Moroney interviewed on Saturday and he reckoned if they led it would have won the Caulfield Cup. That gets a LOL from me but its drawn well to sit in behind the leaders, will run a strong 3200m and while it has no chance of winning I think it is a good value runner for multiples.
16. Ventura Storm
#Stormo. Failed last year. Has since had a wind operation and been gelded. Pretty doubtful Stormo sees out the 3200m from my perspective so as long as Watts4dinner confirms he has backed him this time I am happy to let him run around without me.
17. A Prince of Arran
Sort of has form through Yucatan via the Herbert Power. Beaten 1.6L but would have been 5 or 6 if Yucatan wasn’t eased down. Won the Lexus but I’m not sure internationals on the back up is ideal when they usually space their runs more over there. UK form is mostly on synthetic and was a handicapper only before Saturday. Inclined to leave out of everything at the revised price and on the back up.
18. Nakeeta
Ran 5th last year but has gone like a busted since. No.
19. Sir Charles Road
Like Ace High his 3yo form doesn’t profile that badly for the cup if it was still the 1980s. Alas it is 2018 and I don’t think you can consider something that started at $12 and got beat by a 50-1 shot in the Bendigo Cup a week ago.
20. Zacada
Started $151 in the Geelong Cup. All that needs to be said.
21. Runaway
Solid win in the Geelong Cup. Leaders have a terrible record in the Melbourne Cup and pretty doubtful to stay 3200m. No.
22. Youngstar
No mare has run a place since Makybe Diva won in 2005. McEvoy jumps off and happy to leave out of everything. This is the ideal spot to get Willowed (or reverse Willowed?) though isn’t it.
23. Cross Counter
The Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds that have run well in the cup have run well in open races in Europe before coming out. Cross Counter has only run against three year olds. Successful Teofilos in Australia have been sprinter-miles like Happy Clapper, Kermadec and Paletino with only Humidor getting out to 2000m. I think some query at the 3200m despite the Galileo blood line. Drawn wide which I don’t think is such a big deal with the weight and also had a small setback early in its prep. At the price I’m inclined to risk but Appleby/McEvoy/51kg makes me question myself so I will include in my wider multiples.
24. Rostropovich
Similar sort of dilemma to Cross Counter here. Unlike Cross Counter though Rostropovich has won a G3 3 year old and up race in Ireland before coming out here. I have no real line on the strength of the race but I suspect it was not that strong if Rostropovich started $2 fave in the race after getting beaten 13L at its previous start, albeit in absolute A grade company in England. Whether Frankels are going to get 3200m is another query, like Cross Counter as a Teofilo it is another step removed from Galileo and can’t really conclude either way until we see a few more of them over the distance. Got absolutely slaughtered in the Cox Plate, 3 and 4 wide to the 800m mark basically in a field of 8 runners. I’m not having a bar of anything that got flogged in the Caulfield Cup but I think you need to be more forgiving here particularly considering it is WFA back to a handicap, the Green Moon precedent. The cox plate run combined with the wide barrier will turn most off so it might actually turn out to be a good value runner for multiples I think. I’m conflicted on the Northern Hemisphere 3yos and their ability to run 3200m so I will treat it the same as Cross Counter and throw in my wider multiples only.
1. Best Solution
Did it tough to win the Caulfield Cup. Risk at the 3200m on breeding. 9 wins from 22 starts including 3 G1s, a G2 and 3 G3s on good and soft ground. Up against it historically with his weight but clearly the best horse in the race and probably isn’t actually in that bad comparatively against a lot of them. Drawn well, tough, Godolphin have said the Melbourne Cup was always the target so that may or may not mitigate your 3200m concerns depending on your perspective. Going to risk for the win due to weight and distance queries but can see it running a similar race to Criterion. Definite inclusion in multiples.
2. The Cliffsofmoher
Ran on ok off a slow pace in the Caulfield Cup without being a threat. Moody gave the horse a big clip afterwards for being non genuine. Following the same path to the cup as Johanees Vermeer last year although will need to carry 2kg more. Also like JV he hasn’t won beyond ~2000m which I would have concerns with as Green Moon off a very slow pace is the only recent horse to win the cup without winning over 2400m+ before the MC. Has the class and the connections know what they are doing. With the weight, distance and being a bit of a non-winner happy to go around for the win. Drawn well. Consider for multiples.
3. Magic Circle
I don’t know much about the trainer but it would appear he has given the horse the “Darren Weir polish” since joining the stable two starts ago. With 56kg it is terribly weighted when you compare what it has done to Best Solution for example. English form over 3000m+ traditionally is not the profile to take into the Melbourne Cup and win. Owner reckons it is better than Mount Athos and you know it will stay the trip. Can’t see it winning personally but in a thin year has to go in the multiples.
4. Chestnut Coat
Terrible in the Caulfield Cup on the slow. In Japan went from running in handicaps to a 2nd in a G2 and then a 5th beaten 1.8L in the Tenno Sho out of nowhere basically. People have it improving on a firmer track but with a bit of rain around in Melbourne leave me out of something that was beaten 10L at its last start.
5. Muntahaa
Promised a bit as a younger horse before losing its way a little. Rediscovered some form in its last 3 starts. Won the Ebor impressively albeit with an unconventional ride. He would have more class than your average Ebor winner. Previous form around Marmelo, Duretto and Best Solution in the UK which you can transfer across somewhat. Comes down to how well he has settled in Australia but from a gun yard and a decent draw I have him as a winning chance.
6. Sound Check
Ok form in Germany throughout its career with no real line on the quality of those races until two back it was beaten only 0.3L to Best Solution in a G1 over 2400m at level weights. Based on that must have some ability but like the Japanese horse I have no interest in something beaten 10L at its last start in the Caulfield Cup which would suggest it has not settled as well in Australia.
7. Who Shot Thebarman
He has been a warrior over his career but it has a Red Cadeaux kind of feel to it this year. The Sydney Cup win would have been a great swansong. I notice one of the owners is D O’Leary. “I run 10 year old horses in tough 2 mile races, I’m an ……..”
8. Ace High
Winner of the Vic Derby last spring and 2nd in the ATC Derby in the autumn, probably be right in the market for the race in the pre internationals era so let’s not go back there. It’s last 3 Sydney runs before the Caulfield Cup were actually pretty good. Beaten 11.4L in the Caulfield Cup so add it to the absolutely no interest pile when it would need a remarkable form turnaround to feature here.
9. Marmelo
Everyone knows the story here. Ran home well in the Caulfield Cup to become last year’s Melbourne Cup favourite. Went forward in the cup from a wideish barrier and didn’t give a yelp. This time they have skipped the prep run and gone straight to the cup. Drawn well and potential improver if it is given a quieter run like in the Caulfield Cup. If you draw a line through the winner of the Kergolay it is going 4L worse than last year but apparently the track in France for the Kergolay this year was rock hard and the trainer said the horse didn’t like it and subsequent meetings have been abandoned due to the state of the track. The winner of the Kergolay this year may also have improved given it has since come out and won a G1 in France. If we get a bit of rain to take the sting out of the ground on cup day that would be a positive for him. Still profiles well as a winner if you forgive last year’s failure. At 2-3 times the price of last year I am happy to stay on the wagon while everyone else jumps off. Winning chance for mine.
10. Avilius
Became flavour of the month off some second grade Sydney races and fell in in a weak Bart Cummings. Cox Plate wasn’t too bad I guess. Big query on his ability to stay 3200m based on his sire being a sprinter. Leaving it out of everything. See you next Tuesday Glyn.
11. Yucatan
Killed them in the Herbert Power with the Lexus franking the Herbert Power form. I’ve heard a bit of poo pooing of its Euro form but it finished a 1L third to Rekindling in a G3 last year as a 3yo, a 1.95L 3rd to The Cliffsofmoher in a G2 this year over 2000m, and won a G3 in Ireland in July. Likewise there have been queries on him staying the trip but in a post Zabeel world, Galileos are about as good as it gets for the cup from a popular bloodline perspective. Wide draw is not ideal but with 54.5kg it is not terminal if JMac can get it into the 3 wide with cover running trail. Clear top pick.
12. Auvray
Ran on ok in the Newcastle Cup and The Metrop for easier, failed on a heavy track last time, how the hell did this qualify for the cup? I know the internationals can get a saloon pass for running a place in certain races but he has been here for 3 years now so it must be based on his Aus form?
13. Finche
This guy actually profiles ok for a progressive stayer for the cup IMO. I backed him in the Geelong Cup though and he had a good run and was entitled to do better if he was going to step up to Melbourne Cup level. Bowman jumps off, some query on the Frankels over 3200m, and he had an awkward looking stride. Not the worst value shot for multiples I suppose but not a winning chance for mine and I will go around.
14. Red Cardinal
Beaten 11 lengths last year and has gone like a busted since. No.
15. Vengeur Masque
I think he has been 25th in the order the last two years. Moroney has always thought this was a cup horse but couldn’t make the field. Qualified this year and has had his whole prep geared towards the cup. By the same sire as Protectionist and Almandin so he should have no issues running a strong 3200m which can’t be said for a few runners this year. In the Caulfield Cup he lost a lot of ground getting shuffled back when Our Taj Mahal took off early but after balancing up he was strong to the line again. Heard Moroney interviewed on Saturday and he reckoned if they led it would have won the Caulfield Cup. That gets a LOL from me but its drawn well to sit in behind the leaders, will run a strong 3200m and while it has no chance of winning I think it is a good value runner for multiples.
16. Ventura Storm
#Stormo. Failed last year. Has since had a wind operation and been gelded. Pretty doubtful Stormo sees out the 3200m from my perspective so as long as Watts4dinner confirms he has backed him this time I am happy to let him run around without me.
17. A Prince of Arran
Sort of has form through Yucatan via the Herbert Power. Beaten 1.6L but would have been 5 or 6 if Yucatan wasn’t eased down. Won the Lexus but I’m not sure internationals on the back up is ideal when they usually space their runs more over there. UK form is mostly on synthetic and was a handicapper only before Saturday. Inclined to leave out of everything at the revised price and on the back up.
18. Nakeeta
Ran 5th last year but has gone like a busted since. No.
19. Sir Charles Road
Like Ace High his 3yo form doesn’t profile that badly for the cup if it was still the 1980s. Alas it is 2018 and I don’t think you can consider something that started at $12 and got beat by a 50-1 shot in the Bendigo Cup a week ago.
20. Zacada
Started $151 in the Geelong Cup. All that needs to be said.
21. Runaway
Solid win in the Geelong Cup. Leaders have a terrible record in the Melbourne Cup and pretty doubtful to stay 3200m. No.
22. Youngstar
No mare has run a place since Makybe Diva won in 2005. McEvoy jumps off and happy to leave out of everything. This is the ideal spot to get Willowed (or reverse Willowed?) though isn’t it.
23. Cross Counter
The Northern Hemisphere 3 year olds that have run well in the cup have run well in open races in Europe before coming out. Cross Counter has only run against three year olds. Successful Teofilos in Australia have been sprinter-miles like Happy Clapper, Kermadec and Paletino with only Humidor getting out to 2000m. I think some query at the 3200m despite the Galileo blood line. Drawn wide which I don’t think is such a big deal with the weight and also had a small setback early in its prep. At the price I’m inclined to risk but Appleby/McEvoy/51kg makes me question myself so I will include in my wider multiples.
24. Rostropovich
Similar sort of dilemma to Cross Counter here. Unlike Cross Counter though Rostropovich has won a G3 3 year old and up race in Ireland before coming out here. I have no real line on the strength of the race but I suspect it was not that strong if Rostropovich started $2 fave in the race after getting beaten 13L at its previous start, albeit in absolute A grade company in England. Whether Frankels are going to get 3200m is another query, like Cross Counter as a Teofilo it is another step removed from Galileo and can’t really conclude either way until we see a few more of them over the distance. Got absolutely slaughtered in the Cox Plate, 3 and 4 wide to the 800m mark basically in a field of 8 runners. I’m not having a bar of anything that got flogged in the Caulfield Cup but I think you need to be more forgiving here particularly considering it is WFA back to a handicap, the Green Moon precedent. The cox plate run combined with the wide barrier will turn most off so it might actually turn out to be a good value runner for multiples I think. I’m conflicted on the Northern Hemisphere 3yos and their ability to run 3200m so I will treat it the same as Cross Counter and throw in my wider multiples only.
- Jan 30, 2013
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Euro 2400-2800m horses are easily 2 mile Australian horses. If they’ve won over the trip or further they’re normally too slow. Of course there are exceptions.
toxic
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15mm is sweet FA
They'd be putting that on anyway.
Trainers and Jocks already sooking its too firm
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Bombers32
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Pakistan Star defeated!
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Nice work, great summary.
Who are you tipping?
Was thinking a box quinella with Best Solution, Youngstar, Avilius, Ventura Storm, and Yucatan. Trifecta is too hard.
iluvparis
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Chestnut Coat was awful at Caulfield with absolutely no excuses - Sole Impact did nothing back on dry Saturday - why do we always respect the Japanese? They have done jack s**t at Flemington for over a decade. They are always training the house down
Magic Circle has no distance query - the query is whether he can run it fast enough - generally the ones that get the trip over there are too slow here. Go back and look at the horses that have won the race carrying 55.5kg+ in the last 25 years - they are great horses - Magic Circle is not that good a horse and was a handicapper all his life until the start of this year. Sure - he might have suddenly improved as a 6yo but for my mind he has way too much weight and beat up early season horses at the start of the UK flat season. On what basis will be suited to our type of racing? - that is just making stuff up. Plenty of horses have a turn of foot over 2 miles in the UK but are too slow here. Magic Circle would be the worst horse to win with this kind of weight in decades.
Heartbreak City's win was just as dominant as Muntahaa and the form out of this years Ebor is absolute garbage. There has been something like 1 win out of 21 runs from the race. That was one peak run which he now has to come all the way over here and replicate - HC at least had back-2-back wins to its credit before coming here and I still didn't rate it
.You keep saying Yucatan beat Benalla Cup horses but I could just as easily say he absolutely DESTROYED the Lexus quinella. What more did you want him to do? It was won of the best cup trials I have seen for years - INFINITELY better than what Protectacat produced when he couldn't even beat plodders. If you want to look at a horse beating up on camels take a second look at Muntahaa.
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Better Loosen Up
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Oliver
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I have Yucatan, Muntahaa and Marmelo going for the win.
Box 6 - Yucatan, Muntahaa, Marmelo, Best Solution, Magic Circle, Vengeur Masque
3/9/9 - Yucatan, Muntahaa, Marmelo to win. Those 3 plus Best Solution, Magic Circle, Vengeur Masque, The Cliffsofmoher, Cross Counter & Rostropovich for the places.
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Yes forgot about Marmelo, seems to like Flemington like Red Caduex did previously.
Thanks
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1 start. 9th after starting fave.
Hutchy on racing.com potting Cliffs off a farcical run CC, saying he should of won. Was the only horse to make ground you knob.
I’m pretty sure team Williams know a thing or two about which horses win Mebourne Cups.
Wouldn’t be putting a line through any of them.
I’m pretty sure team Williams know a thing or two about which horses win Mebourne Cups.
Wouldn’t be putting a line through any of them.
“I’ve gone with the sux here”
Yucatan’s obviously a huge chance but it’s a bit of a stretch to say he put 6 lengths on Prince of Arran; Prince of Arran was running up backsides while Yucatan was putting a gap on them. He got clear when Yucatan was at least 6 lengths clear. Might pay to watch the replay again.
I’m not suggesting Prince of Arran would’ve beaten Yucatan in the CC but, if he can handle the quick back up and the possible soft ground, he’ll be very competitive over 2 miles.
I’m not suggesting Prince of Arran would’ve beaten Yucatan in the CC but, if he can handle the quick back up and the possible soft ground, he’ll be very competitive over 2 miles.
- Jul 20, 2016
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I have said all along and will continue to stand by my theory that Muntahaa has absolutely none
iluvparis
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Lol wut? Had the perfect trail last year as fave and finished a well beaten 9th
iluvparis
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Trainer was on radio this morning saying he definitely wants it firm as it will like the hard ground much more than the other Europeans.
In any case I think everyone is going OTT about it coming up soft - 15 mms each day isn't going to do jack to a fast drying track like Flemington.
All it’ll do is save them on their water bill.
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Youngstar.
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At this point, I still have no idea. Help me
