Prediction Who will finish higher - Melbourne, Essendon, Adelaide or Hawthorn

[Old Stuckup]

Shiel has that Carlton Judd premiership vibe to it

Could argue the Lynch deal has a Swans/Buddy vibe to it.

 

[schmuttt]

Adelaide will be much improved next year imo

 

[beema limapep]

Melb
Hawks
Essendon
Adelaide

 

[tigertigertiger]

Could argue the Lynch deal has a Swans/Buddy vibe to it.

agree, but also very different, apples and mandarines

 

[Dez!]

Adelaide are vastly overrated IMO, they'll be a little better because of the draw but they are still the weakest out of the 4 listed.

Hawthorn depends on how Scully returns, while Wingard is a very talented player I don't particularly think he's going to propel them anywhere.

Shiel improves the Bombers no doubt but they played well in the second half of the season and now have to reintegrate Joe Daniher into the fold which is a big piece to implement into a team that was functioning very well.

 

[Drewie11]

Essendon will be the highest if the can continue their late form. Adding Shiel is massive, the guy is a jet and was regularly tagged ahead of Kelly.

Adelaide if injuries can be sorted out can rise up the ladder again. Throw in a fit Walker, Brad Crouch and Brodie Smith and they are right amongst it again.

Hawthorn are an interesting one, with the addition of Wingard is huge. He will have an all Australian year IMO. I think they will be in the eight.

Melbourne are the ones I see struggling a bit. Yes added May but lost Hogan. If you take Hogan out of the side last year then the probably lost 2 or 3 more games. If people think Weideman will cover Hogan then they are in for a rude shock

So

1. Essendon
2. Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Melbourne

 

[markm106]

Essendon will be the highest if the can continue their late form. Adding Shiel is massive, the guy is a jet and was regularly tagged ahead of Kelly.

Adelaide if injuries can be sorted out can rise up the ladder again. Throw in a fit Walker, Brad Crouch and Brodie Smith and they are right amongst it again.

Hawthorn are an interesting one, with the addition of Wingard is huge. He will have an all Australian year IMO. I think they will be in the eight.

Melbourne are the ones I see struggling a bit. Yes added May but lost Hogan. If you take Hogan out of the side last year then the probably lost 2 or 3 more games. If people think Weideman will cover Hogan then they are in for a rude shock

So

1. Essendon
2. Adelaide
3. Hawthorn
4. Melbourne

Have a look through any of our close wins. Taking Hogan out probably doesn’t change a thing. As much as I didn’t like the notion that Hogan mainly played his better games in the easy wins there was something to it. I can’t pick 2-3 games where he’d have been the difference between a loss and a win. The only one was possibly Lions in round 2. He kicked 5 and we won by 26 points but I wouldn’t be confident we’d have lost. Other players would've probably chipped in for a few most likely.

That’s a bit of a lazy statement.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Wingard gives the Hawks a 40-50 a year half forward.

Wingard has kicked 50 goals in a season once in his career and the last time he kicked over 40 was 4 years ago.

 

[dylan93]

Melbourne: Top 4 - Continue the upward trajectory. Tougher draw but fans are starting to have the faith. May bolsters our area of weakness in defence, and Weideman has been in career best form as of late to take over Hogan's spot.

Hawthorn: Top 8 - Probably somewhere between 3rd and 7th for mine. They're just one of the most consistent teams and solid across most positions. Injuries could prove to be their downfall though.

Adelaide: Between 5th and 12th - One of my predictions for 2019 after seeing just how soft their draw is, is that the Crows will be back into finals contention. In a ladder prediction I've done, I have them 6th. Although similar to Hawthorn injuries could screw them and have them finish as low as around 12th.

Essendon: Between 5th and 12th - On my ladder prediction I have them just missing out on the top 8 on percentage finishing 9th. I'm still not buying into this whole Shiel will be the answer to their problems. Yes they were in a bit of form later in the season, yes they should have a fit Daniher back into their team which will help their scoring abilities. But they'll be battling it out with Pies, Roos, Cats, Swans, Crows, etc in that log jam of teams with similar qualities for the last few spots in the 8. Find it a tad hilarious with some predictions having them top 4 personally. But we'll have to see.

 

[FlowersByIrene]

What an odd collection, Melbourne are the clear standout and a genuine op 4 chance where as the other three are also rans that will be lucky to scrape into 7ths spot or higher. Bottom 10 is more likely than top eight for Essendon and Adelaide and Hawthorn could be anything, but I doubt they finish higher than Melbourne

 

[Drewie11]

Have a look through any of our close wins. Taking Hogan out probably doesn’t change a thing. As much as I didn’t like the notion that Hogan mainly played his better games in the easy wins there was something to it. I can’t pick 2-3 games where he’d have been the difference between a loss and a win. The only one was possibly Lions in round 2. He kicked 5 and we won by 26 points but I wouldn’t be confident we’d have lost. Other players would've probably chipped in for a few most likely.

That’s a bit of a lazy statement.

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

 

[markm106]

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

Quiet often Tmac got the best defender. Not sure why but Goody had Hogan running up the ground chasing kicks in the middle too much for my liking.
Have a look at the last two home and away games and the first two finals. We functioned perfectly fine without Hogan as we have many options up forward.

 

[grumbleguts]

It'd be Hawthorn, because the other teams are Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

Melbourne win % was a lot higher when Hogan didn't play, narrow it to teams in the top 8 and the % is even higher.

It was a lazy comment and you obviously did no research at all

 

[Trav 20]

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

Hogan became second fiddle to McDonald.

Hogan didn't play in our last 5 games (won 4).

Highest scoring team in the competition.

Most inside 50s in the competition.

Footy is almost as much about game-style right now as personnel. Weideman is a very good replacement, who was BOG in a final and took 13 contested marks in his last 5 games. Riewoldt may have emulated that in his last 5 games, but I doubt it. Weideman is 21 and about to enter his 4th season. He's only getting better.

 

[markm106]

Hogan became second fiddle to McDonald.

Hogan didn't play in our last 5 games (won 4).

Highest scoring team in the competition.

Most inside 50s in the competition.

Footy is almost as much about game-style right now as personnel. Weideman is a very good replacement, who was BOG in a final and took 13 contested marks in his last 5 games. Riewoldt may have emulated that in his last 5 games, but I doubt it. Weideman is 21 and about to enter his 4th season. He's only getting better.

I think at a minimum Weideman plays his role. Potentially much more as he showed particularly in the cats final. Certainly looks like he has ‘it’. Attacks the contest hard and can take a grab. Also loves a tackle.

 

[blitzer]

It amuses me how people carry on as if there is a 'right' answer at this point in the year and people are silly for suggesting otherwise. I wonder how many people even had both of West Coast and Collingwood in the top 8 at this time last year.

All 4 teams should at the very least be in the hunt for finals. From there it will come down to form, injuries and improvement from within the list + added players.

 

[mattymac]

We have a cracking draw that you peasants will bring up all year as the reason we are above you.

If we're not, take us out the back put us down.

That said I think Essendon are the chosen ones next year. I think Melbourne will slide a bit now the chosen ones tap will be turned off for them. And hawks will struggle to get off the ground, weighed down by Wingard's bottom lip.

 

[Sprout]

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

Except the fact that T Mac regularly drew the best defender with Hogan spending a lot of time further up the ground, hence his higher disposal count. Weideman would have to go backwards at an alarming rate for Hogan’s departure to really be noticed and I don’t see that happening. In fact he looks set to take a big step forward if his finals campaign is any indication.

Melbourne led the league for inside 50s and the midfield is only going to be improve in 2019. Even a half functioning forwardline will be getting a huge amount of supply.

The basis of your argument is a weak one.

 

[schmuttt]

Hogan takes the number 1 defender so now that rolls onto McDonald. Nothing lazy about my statement.

For example now Rance is on McDonald and an Astbury is on a Weideman. I think most people are really underestimating how big Hogan is to the Melbourne forward line.

Since start of 2017:
Melb with Hogan vs top 8 sides 1-7
Without Hogan 7-6

 

[blitzer]

Since start of 2017:
Melb with Hogan vs top 8 sides 1-7
Without Hogan 7-6

I feel like these kind of stats are often more representative of the idea 'correlation does not equal causation' than what people are trying to draw from them. I'll give an example (I'm sure there are plenty of better ones out there but I literally just thought of a player who had an injury whilst his team was on a win streak):

West Coast without Shuey in 2018 in the H&A: 4 wins 1 loss (80% win rate) - if they hadn't rested Shuey from that game in Tasmania towards the end of the season my stat would have looked so much better. I guess I could slice it to just include top 8 sides - so that North loss gets removed and then that brings West Coast up to 100% without Shuey against top 8 sides (beating Giants, Tigers and Hawks).
West Coast with Shuey in 2018 in the H&A: 12 wins 5 losses (71% win rate)

Clearly West Coast are a better team without Shuey right? They must be.......there's definitely no way that it could be related to the form, fitness and performances of the other players on the list.

 

[Tandy]

Confident hawthorn supporters

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

What an odd collection, Melbourne are the clear standout and a genuine op 4 chance where as the other three are also rans that will be lucky to scrape into 7ths spot or higher. Bottom 10 is more likely than top eight for Essendon and Adelaide and Hawthorn could be anything, but I doubt they finish higher than Melbourne

Won’t finish higher than Melbourne I agree but to say bottom 10 is more likely than top 8 for Essendon is taking the piss.

 

[WWSD]

Wingard has kicked 50 goals in a season once in his career and the last time he kicked over 40 was 4 years ago.

Wingard will be surrounded by Gunston and Breust who are both coming off 50 goal seasons. The Hawks have better forwards then Port Adelaide for starters. He’s still only 25. He will dominate games next year at the MCG. Opposition teams will find it tough to contain both Wingard and Breust.

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Wingard will be surrounded by Gunston and Breust who are both coming off 50 goal seasons. The Hawks have better forwards then Port Adelaide for starters. He’s still only 25. He will dominate games next year at the MCG. Opposition teams will find it tough to contain both Wingard and Breust.

Why?