List Mgmt. Carlton's 2018 Draft Thread (cont. in Part 2)

[katmanblue]

people find fault with the most trivial things

you've actually got four periods in your ellipsis, b & b

* Capitalise the P for people.
* Period at the end of the first line.

* Capitalise the Y for you've.
* Capitalise B & B.
* Period at the end of the last line.

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[thylacine60]

**** that

 

[Blue and Blue]

you've actually got four periods in your ellipsis, b & b

thats three less than a highschool day.......

 

[Funk]

Poppycock gentlemen, absolute poppycock. At the time of trade, the Swans received Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points) for Pick 13 (1212 points). 13!!! 13!!! as Anthony Hudson would cry. The simple fact is that SOS considered McGovern's worth to more than what he could acquire with Picks 26 & 28 (1406 points) in this years draft and a Future 5th Rounder in next years draft. Justin Reid values the prospect he thinks he can acquire with Pick 13 better than what he'll achieve with Picks 26, 28 & 40 (1835 points). That's a 623 point differential gentlemen and we're not even talking Top 5 Picks here. We're talking about a 623 point differential for a 1st Round Pick outside the Top 10*. Some things to think about:

• Do you honestly think the Swans feel guilty about extracting a 50% (623) point premium for Pick 13 or do you think they were happy to make off like bandits into the night???
• Do you think Reid was pissed he had to part with 1835 points to get Pick 13 or do you think he left happy walking away with a mid 1st Round Pick in a Super Draft, which is what he initially set out to do???*
• Do you think SOS was pissed about having to use both his early 2nd Round Picks in a very deep Super Draft, or did he leave happy having kept Pick 1 intact and acquiring McGovern, which is what he set out to achieve???* *(Future 3rd Rounder used by AFC in this trade effectively paid for McAdam)

Lends a whole different perspective doesn't it.

Port gave up Picks 6 & 35 in this years draft & Freo's Future 3rd (approximately 2650 points) for Pick 5 (1878 points) and Sam Mayes. Wouldn't have thought Mayes was worth any more than a mid/late 3rd Rounder, if that, and is no lock to make Ports best 22. In effect Port gave up around an 500-600 point premium just to nudge up the pecking order from Pick 6 to Pick 5. Food for thought:

• Do you think Port were pissed having to give up an 500-600 point premium to climb one rung up the Draft Ladder or they walked away happy having put themselves in a position to potentially snaffle all of Rankine, Rozee & Hately while adding a little depth to their list which is what they set out to do???

If I'm an established AFL club in a traditional market such SA, WA & Vic then I wouldn't hesitate and simply take Picks 2, 3, 6, 24 & 29 to the draft, but the Suns are an expansion club in an emerging market with some unique problems.

• Absolutely butchered their first attempt at a list build, and with it, the opportunity to build a club with a culture that stood for something. They simply cannot afford to bugger it up a second time. Lukosius & Walsh would provide the best possible start.
• After losing both Lynch & May, the Suns are desperate for a couple of Franchise Players. They need to be more than just very good footballers, they need to be media friendly, mature, intelligent and marketable. They need a couple of young professionals with integrity to build their brand around. For the Suns, this aspect could well be worth the 900 point premium to get Walsh on its own.
• I don't subscribe to the notion of bringing in a bunch of SA kids together. Of all the kids in the top 10, I think Rankine and Rozee are potentially the biggest flight risks, especially if they end up in the northern states. I'd much prefer to have the calm and rational voice of Walsh providing support to Lukosius rather than the other 2 blathering away how they want to go home all the time when it begins to get a little bit too hard after the first 12 months. Just my take.

So if you think a 900 point differential will stop GCS from using Picks 3 & 6 to trade up to Pick 1 then think again. The lesson to be learned is this;

• It's not about overs,
• It's not about unders,
• It's not about evens,
• It's not about points,
• It's not even about picks.
• It's about the prospects/players you think you can, or can't, acquire with those picks and how they'll fit into your system to achieve the club's goals.

.....and just to add a little fuel to the fire here's a quote I'll leave you with from our very own TheRedPill.

Post of the year - IMHO it is completely understandable that GC would pay significant overs to get a 10 year Captain.

There are many reasons GC are in the situation they are - lack of leadership is one of the main ones.

 

[blueballs99]

I don't understand your issue with Jack, he's a got good skills, a good decision maker and has a footy brain. I know he's not quick and need to work on his endurance and IMO if he can get his endurance right he'll end up being an inside mid in the mold of Sam Mitchell. His passion and hard work also makes me think he'll be a good footballer.

Ben IMO is the perfect tall to add to our list because of his flexible to play forward or back. If one of our tall fail to make it or gets traded than he can fill that spot.

The thing that alot of people don't get is the pressure on the silvagni boys and other father son of champions is so high because we expect from day one for them to be as good as there Dads best. SOS wasn't full back of the century in his first game he built in to it and grew as a footballer. From what I've seen from Jack and Ben is that they will not let down the Silvagni name. They will be Carlton champions.

Plz don't go around telling people that you think jsos is in the mold of Sam Mitchell ..they will laugh at you ...I say it as it is ..some might not like it because Im not being biased but I call it as I see it .. if he gets regular games next year I'd be very surprised ..I just don't see a spot in the team for him moving forward

 

[Blue and Blue]

Plz don't go around telling people that you think jsos is in the mold of Sam Mitchell ..they will laugh at you ...I say it as it is ..some might not like it because Im not being biased but I call it as I see it .. if he gets regular games next year I'd be very surprised ..I just don't see a spot in the team for him moving forward

How about just appreciate his endeavour for now. And time and wiser heads than us will decide fate. We are Carlton. I always thought that made us a cut above in how we treat our own.

 

[Blutopia]

Try looking at it this way, the 12 players I listed, can you honestly make a strong case for them being a lock in 2020?

I agree with your first 3, surely Simmo will be cooked by then but maybe not. Daisy has to go after next year but will be good for one more year of on field coaching. Levi is just depth for injuries in KPF but could have gone this year so he’s definitely gone next year.
As for the rest, I think most will stay as they are up to it. Garlett and Pickett are the type of players that will thrive in a better team which I think we are likely to be 10-14th next year.

 

[Blutopia]

SPS - where are you........

There’s always an outlier in every trend..

 

[Brutalitops]

There’s always an outlier in every trend..

Two outliers. We have Marchbank as well, though he wasnt our selection. I wouldnt read too much into it. Its just strange when these sorts of things pop up in statistics and theres no real explanation. Though Norm Smith did coach six flags and Allen Jackovich was the first hyped pick 6 (played for Melbourne).

So its clear that the Norm Smith curse is spreading. Just like that old gypsy woman said it would!

 

[BlueView]

Jaidyn Stephenson and Wingard as well

 

[Lace_Out]

Reckon JSOS could probably jump over a candlestick...

Not without having to flick his hair at least twice..

 

[Monkey King]

SOS had it....but didnt start out at fullback. Had to earn his stripes. I think Jack is also immensely talented. But its a new game now and it takes longer to rise to the top. In the old days a young bloke could become a star very quickly just by finding the footy on a Saturday. Today they have to be so much more than players. And lets be honest no matter what any of them do some will always find fault.

Among other positions, SOS indeed played fullback in his first season. Won a BnF from CHB in 90’ and almost took the Brownlow that year too before doing his knee the following season. Didn’t really move to permanent fullback until Parko returned to the club. I don’t want to say anything bad about Jack, but he’s not a patch on the old man in terms of talent. Incomparable, so unfair on the lad to compare.

 

[The Bighouse]

If we wish to take Sam Fisher &/or Jesse Palmer then no risk in missing out if they’re up for rookie listing unless they wish to go to the draft.
http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-11-18/analysis-how-the-new-rookie-rule-will-change-football

 

[Blutopia]

Among other positions, SOS indeed played fullback in his first season. Won a BnF from CHB in 90’ and almost took the Brownlow that year too before doing his knee the following season. Didn’t really move to permanent fullback until Parko returned to the club. I don’t want to say anything bad about Jack, but he’s not a patch on the old man in terms of talent. Incomparable, so unfair on the lad to compare.

So SOS won a B&F in his 6th season and 3rd in Brownlow that year...
Next year Jack goes into his 4th year. He’s had some decent games and some poor ones. He is a different style of footballer to SOS, but he does have his footy brain and has better foot skills although better field kick than at goals. He’s young and still lightly built but let’s just wait and see how he goes next year or two because I think he has the talent he just lost a bit of confidence getting thrown around. He will be in best 22 next year even though there will be more competition for spots due to more talent on list.

 

[katmanblue]

SPS - where are you........

I choose to believe SPS was pick 5 because of this.

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[Funk]

There’s always an outlier in every trend..

I hope he's an outlier - but I have my concerns.

His body shape doesn't seem to have changed in 2 years and his game hasn't got any better either.

 

[katmanblue]

Two outliers. We have Marchbank as well, though he wasnt our selection. I wouldnt read too much into it. Its just strange when these sorts of things pop up in statistics and theres no real explanation. Though Norm Smith did coach six flags and Allen Jackovich was the first hyped pick 6 (played for Melbourne).

So its clear that the Norm Smith curse is spreading. Just like that old gypsy woman said it would!

Marchbank hasn't really played much. Yet.

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[rp84]

First time poster but I've been lurking around here for a long, long time. Anyway, have been reading all the talk about picks and their value - do we trade pick 1 and if so what is appropriate compensation.

Not an area that I have any expertise in but I thought I would do some analysis of how picks have fared in the past. Using data from draftguru I have graphed the median games played by each draft pick. I used median and not average as some outstanding successes will skew the results. Thought that the median being the 'centre' figure would provide a better indication of success. Results are very interesting, despite all the talk to the contrary, pick 1, overall is definitely the most successful in terms of average games played and the success in terms of games played rapidly falls away from there. Using a logarithmic trend line shows this very clearly.

I know that games played is not the be all and end all but is not a bad indication of a successful draft aquisition. See what you think of the result:

Too good for here. Welcome, nonetheless.

 

[Funk]

I choose to believe SPS was pick 5 because of this.

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Let's just count Setterfield and SPS as equal 5th pick!!!!

6th didn't exist that year.......,

 

[Monkey King]

So SOS won a B&F in his 6th season and 3rd in Brownlow that year...

That is correct. Won a BnF as a defender at 22-23yo. Almost won a Brownlow the same year, at 22-23yo. As a defender. SOS was a special player, so just not fair on Jack to compare them; most players in history would come off worse for wear in such a comparison, so you don’t wanna heap that on the young fella.

 

[Blutopia]

I hope he's an outlier - but I have my concerns.

His body shape doesn't seem to have changed in 2 years and his game hasn't got any better either.

Ups and downs in a young players career.. Jack Gunston’s body shape has barely changed since he was drafted. But he has a good footy brain and has become a star as he has built confidence.

 

[Blutopia]

Let's just count Setterfield and SPS as equal 5th pick!!!!

6th didn't exist that year.......,

Great call. Both will be stars

 

[GoBlues!]

I have graphed the median games played by each draft pick. Thought that the median being the 'centre' figure would provide a better indication of success.

GC good effort. But looking at median games seems quite narrow.

What about games on the footpath, in parks, etc.......

 

[ETET]

I hope he's an outlier - but I have my concerns.

His body shape doesn't seem to have changed in 2 years and his game hasn't got any better either.

When we were humming against Richmond round 1 and the Suns later in the year, arguably our two best matches SPS had his finger prints on most things. His contribution will be significant when we actually start playing football and he can use his skill, not simply be asked to chased the opposition around.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Among other positions, SOS indeed played fullback in his first season. Won a BnF from CHB in 90’ and almost took the Brownlow that year too before doing his knee the following season. Didn’t really move to permanent fullback until Parko returned to the club. I don’t want to say anything bad about Jack, but he’s not a patch on the old man in terms of talent. Incomparable, so unfair on the lad to compare.

I mean he wasnt permanent full back right off....cemented in as it were... and because the team was so strong after he had glandular fever he wasnt automatically back...even missed the 86 GF...but I arent trying to compare them, who knows what will happen..only saying that I think Jsos will be ok and in my view has one thing that cant be undervalued...a footballers instinct..I will take that before speed or strength