Analysis Best & worst top 10 draft picks per draft number

Remove this Banner Ad

Savage Kent

All Australian
Aug 1, 2015
711
1,645
AFL Club
St Kilda
Thought I'd start a thread to pick the all time best and worst top 10 draft picks. This is based on the best player selected at a given pick across every single draft (i.e. best #1 pick, worst #2 pick etc). Interested to see everyone's take. My best and worst is based from the point I started watching footy (circa 1993)

Best Top 10:
#1 - Nick Riewoldt (2000)
#2 - Jarryd Roughead (2004)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Matthew Pavlich (1999)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Chad Wingard (2011)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - McCartin (2014)
#2 - Gumbleton (2006)
#3 - Fewster (1995)
#4 - Walsh (2002)
#5 - McDougall (2000)
#6 - Thorp (2006)
#7 - Angwin (2000)
#8 - Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Molan (2001)
#10 - Dunn (2003)

My take is that pick 5 stands out as historically having the best strike rate in the top 10. So many superstars. Easily could come up with a best 22 of only pick 5's. Pick 6 has typically had a lower strike rate but the few standouts at this pick such as Winged, Macrae and Stephenson if he continues his promising start.

My worst 10 is based on output relative to others. The talent may not have been lacking but due to various factors such as recurring injuries, behavioural issues and unfulfilled potential, they have been included on this list. Pick 1 has not had any real spuds during my time watching footy. Their standing is based on relativity to others who have surpassed the number 1 pick. Paddy still has time on his side but I am basing it on output up until this point in time. He has talent but has been impacted by repeated concussion issues, various injuries and inconsistency in form.
 
Last edited:

Log in to remove this ad.

Mar 10, 2007
52,545
98,134
Melbourne
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Charlton Athletic, Roys FFC
I don’t remember Fewster, but it seems a fairly high proportion of the top 10 on the worst list are KPP’s.

Poor selection or clubs desperately reaching for a saviour ? Or does the U18 form not translate well for KPP’s ?
 
I don’t remember Fewster, but it seems a fairly high proportion of the top 10 on the worst list are KPP’s.

Poor selection or clubs desperately reaching for a saviour ? Or does the U18 form not translate well for KPP’s ?

Because KPP are lot more Raw then Mids.

Mids can make a Immediate Impact while Talls can take few years start to come good
 
Feb 11, 2011
15,095
15,119
pakenham
AFL Club
Fremantle
I don’t remember Fewster, but it seems a fairly high proportion of the top 10 on the worst list are KPP’s.

Poor selection or clubs desperately reaching for a saviour ? Or does the U18 form not translate well for KPP’s ?
4 out of best 5 picks are key forwards.

Seems like key position players are boom or bust.
 

petrolium

Team Captain
Nov 2, 2018
378
855
AFL Club
Geelong
Best Top 10:
#1 - Luke Hodge (2001)
#2 - Josh Kelly (2013 - will be by the end of his career)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Josh Kennedy (2005)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Jack Macrae (2012 - will be by end of career)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - Jack Watts (2008)
#2 - Jonathon O'Rourke (2012)
#3 - Brendan Fewster (1995)
#4 - Tim Walsh (2002)
#5 - Jarrad Grant (2007)
#6 - Mitch Thorp (2006)
#7 - Laurence Angwin (2000)
#8 - Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Luke Molan (2001)
#10 - Ryley Dunn (2003)
 
Best Top 10:
#1 - Luke Hodge (2001)
#2 - Josh Kelly (2013 - will be by the end of his career)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Josh Kennedy (2005)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Jack Macrae (2012 - will be by end of career)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - Jack Watts (2008)
#2 - Jonathon O'Rourke (2012)
#3 - Brendan Fewster (1995)
#4 - Tim Walsh (2002)
#5 - Jarrad Grant (2007)
#6 - Mitch Thorp (2006)
#7 - Laurence Angwin (2000)
#8 - Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Luke Molan (2001)
#10 - Ryley Dunn (2003)
In what world is Hodge better than Riewoldt lol
 
Dec 3, 2017
17,127
55,160
AFL Club
Melbourne
Best Top 10:
#1 - Luke Hodge (2001)
#2 - Josh Kelly (2013 - will be by the end of his career)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Josh Kennedy (2005)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Jack Macrae (2012 - will be by end of career)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - Jack Watts (2008)
#2 - Jonathon O'Rourke (2012)
#3 - Brendan Fewster (1995)
#4 - Tim Walsh (2002)
#5 - Jarrad Grant (2007)
#6 - Mitch Thorp (2006)
#7 - Laurence Angwin (2000)
#8 - Jarrad Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Luke Molan (2001)
#10 - Ryley Dunn (2003)

As underwhelming as Watts has been, he's nowhere near the worst #1 pick. Martin Leslie, Richard Lounder, Alex McDonald , Anthony Banik, Stephen Hooper, John Hutton, Clive Waterhouse, Jon Patton, Tom Boyd & Paddy McCartin were all worse #1 picks than Watts.
 

(Log in to remove this ad.)

In what world is Hodge better than Riewoldt lol
The world where he sacrificed his own elite midfield game to lead Hawthorn to 3 premierships (winning 4 in total) and 2 norm smith medals by playing any role necessary to get the job done (as a key defender essentially in 2008 where he directly stopped 16 of Geelong's 64 inside 50 entries) or by kicking key critical goals in the 2014 and 2015 grand finals.

Nick couldn't even kick a goal from 1m out in a GF when he had his shot.
 
People need to stop using team achievements to talk up a player.
No they don't. Especially when a player like Hodge sacrificed his own game and midfield minutes because he saw the big picture with regards to team success.
 

Nobu

Senior List
Nov 14, 2018
294
603
AFL Club
Richmond
Other Teams
Grimsby Town
No they don't. Especially when a player like Hodge sacrificed his own game and midfield minutes because he saw the big picture with regards to team success.
Who cares? If Hodge got drafted to Carlton, he wouldn't have won four flags. Players shouldn't be judged more harshly because they weren't fortunate enough to play in premiership sides. It's a bullshit argument. He'd still be equally as talented if he did it all in a side that didn't win premierships.
 

Virgin Dog

Cancelled
Oct 29, 2017
9,734
20,645
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
By this logic, Hodge is better than Wayne Carey since Carey never won a premiership (Kinda forgot about those 2 - still less than Hodge), meaning Hodge's achievement list is better.

We're talking about individual players here. Hodge's Norm Smith medals can count in his favour, but being one of the 22 involved in a premiership doesn't make you a better player than someone who wasn't. Nathan Broad is also a premiership player, so I guess he must be more successful than Carey too
 
Last edited:

Gronkd

Debutant
Nov 15, 2015
50
44
AFL Club
Western Bulldogs
Other Teams
Patriots, Oilers, Mets, Cavs
By this logic, Hodge is better than Wayne Carey since Carey never won a premiership, meaning Hodge's achievement list is better.

We're talking about individual players here. Hodge's Norm Smith medals can count in his favour, but being one of the 22 involved in a premiership doesn't make you a better player than someone who wasn't. Nathan Broad is also a premiership player, so I guess he must be more successful than Carey too

Reckon you might need to check your facts re:Carey and premierships
 
Back