Analysis Best & worst top 10 draft picks per draft number

[jackenny]

By this logic, Hodge is better than Wayne Carey since Carey never won a premiership, meaning Hodge's achievement list is better.

We're talking about individual players here. Hodge's Norm Smith medals can count in his favour, but being one of the 22 involved in a premiership doesn't make you a better player than someone who wasn't. Nathan Broad is also a premiership player, so I guess he must be more successful than Carey too

Wait, do you mean Gary Ablett?

Mind you, I think the big reason team success counts for Hodge is that he was captain (which adds to the legend), a lot like Voss being a monster in his day during the Lion's three-peat.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Reckon you might need to check your facts re:Carey and premierships

Yeah might be a bit off on that one..

 

[Virgin Dog]

Wait, do you mean Gary Ablett?

Mind you, I think the big reason team success counts for Hodge is that he was captain (which adds to the legend), a lot like Voss being a monster in his day during the Lion's three-peat.

Yeah I certainly did haha my bad

And to be fair, Nick Maxwell was a premiership captain, but it's pretty widely accepted that he was barely in Collingwood's best 22 for a good duration of his captaincy - he was kept on field for leadership, and less for skill

 

[Holy Rioli]

Who cares? If Hodge got drafted to Carlton, he wouldn't have won four flags. Players shouldn't be judged more harshly because they weren't fortunate enough to play in premiership sides. It's a bullshit argument. He'd still be equally as talented if he did it all in a side that didn't win premierships.

Nope load of crap. Gibbs should have been an all time great but his development was so fundamentally screwed up at Carlton (lol and being put in the leadership group a month after being drafted). Hodge wouldn't have been half the player if was drafted by them. He struggled early with Hawthorn as well until Clarko came over, and our player development was completely overhauled.

The other thing you have completely overlooked is cometh the moment, cometh the man. Reiwoldt never played a good grand final, as where Hodge consistently stepped up big time when it came to the big dance. It does count for how you rate a player as much as you think it is a bullshit argument. We don't win 2008 if we had Reiwoldt instead of Hodge, it really is that simple.

 

[Nobu]

Nope load of crap. Gibbs should have been an all time great but his development was so fundamentally screwed up at Carlton (lol and being put in the leadership group a month after being drafted). Hodge wouldn't have been half the player if was drafted by them. He struggled early with Hawthorn as well until Clarko came over, and our player development was completely overhauled.

The other thing you have completely overlooked is cometh the moment, cometh the man. Reiwoldt never played a good grand final, as where Hodge consistently stepped up big time when it came to the big dance. It does count for how you rate a player as much as you think it is a bullshit argument. We don't win 2008 if we had Reiwoldt instead of Hodge, it really is that simple.

That has more to do with the club than the player though. Plus you've missed the point entirely. Put every Luke Hodge performance in a side that didn't win premierships over the course of his career and he's still exactly the same player. Whether he won premierships or not should be irrelevant. He should be judged on performances and performances only.

As for Norm Smith medals, that is an individual accolade and Hodge deserves all the plaudits he gets for winning them.

 

[jackenny]

Yeah I certainly did haha my bad

And to be fair, Nick Maxwell was a premiership captain, but it's pretty widely accepted that he was barely in Collingwood's best 22 for a good duration of his captaincy - he was kept on field for leadership, and less for skill

No worries mate.

As for Maxwell, I feel like his mediocrity is a bit overplayed. For example, he did win a deserving All-Australian in his first year as captain. Next year, he led them to a premiership in the GF rematch. He won multiple Best n' Fairest. It's a shame Maxwell's dramatic drop in form in proceeding years are what's focused on. Reiwoldt and Hodge are definitely better players, though.

The best comparison I can make from a St Kilda perspective is that Luke Hodge is Hawthorn's Lenny Hayes during their golden era.

 

[Jesslc]

As underwhelming as Watts has been, he's nowhere near the worst #1 pick. Martin Leslie, Richard Lounder, Alex McDonald , Anthony Banik, Stephen Hooper, John Hutton, Clive Waterhouse, Jon Patton, Tom Boyd & Paddy McCartin were all worse #1 picks than Watts.

Ive seen Watts be absolutely pivotal in a shitload of Dees wins.

Cant say the same about Boyd (Apart from fantastic GF performance) or McCartin.

 

[Virgin Dog]

No worries mate.

As for Maxwell, I feel like his mediocrity is a bit overplayed. For example, he did win a deserving All-Australian in his first year as captain. Next year, he led them to a premiership in the GF rematch. He won multiple Best n' Fairest. It's a shame Maxwell's dramatic drop in form in proceeding years are what's focused on. Reiwoldt and Hodge are definitely better players, though.

The best comparison I can make from a St Kilda perspective is that Luke Hodge is Hawthorn's Lenny Hayes during their golden era.

Oh I don't mean he was a spud by any measure - more that he enjoyed a prolonged career due to his leadership despite arguably dropping out of their 'best 22'. He definitely was a gun for a good 3-4 year stretch, I was just trying to make the point that not all premiership players are absolute superstars, so having a medal to your name doesn't make you a better player than anothet

 

[2006_Eagles]

In what world is Hodge better than Riewoldt lol

 

[Socrates2]

Thought I'd start a thread to pick the all time best and worst top 10 draft picks. This is based on the best player selected at a given pick across every single draft (i.e. best #1 pick, worst #2 pick etc). Interested to see everyone's take. My best and worst is based from the point I started watching footy (circa 1993)

Best Top 10:
#1 - Nick Riewoldt (2000)
#2 - Jarryd Roughead (2004)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Matthew Pavlich (1999)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Chad Wingard (2011)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - McCartin (2014)
#2 - Gumbleton (2006)
#3 - Fewster (1995)
#4 - Walsh (2002)
#5 - McDougall (2000)
#6 - Thorp (2006)
#7 - Angwin (2000)
#8 - Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Molan (2001)
#10 - Dunn (2003)

My take is that pick 5 stands out as historically having the best strike rate in the top 10. So many superstars. Easily could come up with a best 22 of only pick 5's. Pick 6 has typically had a lower strike rate but the few standouts at this pick such as Winged, Macrae and Stephenson if he continues his promising start.

My worst 10 is based on output relative to others. The talent may not have been lacking but due to various factors such as recurring injuries, behavioural issues and unfulfilled potential, they have been included on this list. Pick 1 has not had any real spuds during my time watching footy. Their standing is based on relativity to others who have surpassed the number 1 pick. Paddy still has time on his side but I am basing it on output up until this point in time. He has talent but has been impacted by repeated concussion issues, various injuries and inconsistency in form.

Pick 2, Cotchin better than Roughead, Nigel Lappin,Natanui,Ottens and Hasleby not far behind

 

[AFLOnline]

Well said

 

[00Stinger]

I am staggered that there has been a worse pick at 4 than Toumpas

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

McCartin as the worst number 1 is rubish far too early in his carreer to call that ...
going from 93 til today you got :
Clive Waterhouse
Des Hedland
Josh Fraser
Jack Watts

 

[TedDougChris]

McCartin as the worst number 1 is rubish far too early in his carreer to call that ...
going from 93 til today you got :
Clive Waterhouse
Des Hedland
Josh Fraser
Jack Watts

All those players have delivered more than Paddy has. But he does have time to catch them.

 

[Sab22]

Pretty harsh on Paddy imo. Bloke has been flogged by injuries.

 

[Mofra]

I am staggered that there has been a worse pick at 4 than Toumpas

Tim Walsh, Bulldogs.

Career stats: 1 game, 1 kick, 1 goal.

Toumpas was ruined by injury, I have sympathy for him. He's a way better footballer than Tim Walsh ever was.

 

[TedDougChris]

Pretty harsh on Paddy imo. Bloke has been flogged by injuries.

Agreed and he has time on his side. But, he has largely failed to deliver. There are good reasons, but not the results you would have hoped for at pick 1....

 

[Monkey King]

Riewoldt a better player than Hodge.

Beau Dowler would give Thorp a run at being the worst pick 6.

 

[adammania9]

McCartin as the worst number 1 is rubish far too early in his carreer to call that ...
going from 93 til today you got :
Clive Waterhouse
Des Hedland
Josh Fraser
Jack Watts

Josh Fraser was a very good player at the start of his career, and was a serviceable ruck for the remainder.

 

[TedDougChris]

Tim Walsh, Bulldogs.

Career stats: 1 game, 1 kick, 1 goal.

Toumpas was ruined by injury, I have sympathy for him. He's a way better footballer than Tim Walsh ever was.

Good conversion rate though !!

 

[Thetrader15]

Meeson worse than JON for pick 8?

 

[hoddo]

Best
1: Hodge (narrowly from Riewoldt)
2: Lappin
3: Judd
4: Kennedy
5: Franklin (narrowly from Pendlebury)
6: Macrae
7: Selwood
8: Bartel
9: Chad Cornes
10: Dangerfield

It may be my Melbourne bias talking but I believe Oliver and Salem will take over the 4 and 9 spots before long.


Worst
1: Lounder
2-10: Dead heats between all those players at each pick who failed to play even one match … and there are plenty.

Lounder played just 4 matches which is way below any other number 1 pick. How people can be nominating a 200+game player like Fraser or 100+game players like Waterhouse, Alex McDonald, Headland and Watts ahead of him is crazy.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

All those players have delivered more than Paddy has. But he does have time to catch them.

thats the point Paddy has been in for 5 mins in the AFL system he still has time to become a player (heck how was Tom Hawkins going at Paddys age) to call it the worst number one pick this early is very premature ... what we know is Waterhouse, Hedland , Fraser and Watts had at best one good season followed by a career of meh

 

[TedDougChris]

thats the point Paddy has been in for 5 mins in the AFL system he still has time to become a player (heck how was Tom Hawkins going at Paddys age) to call it the worst number one pick this early is very premature ... what we know is Waterhouse, Hedland , Fraser and Watts had at best one good season followed by a career of meh

As opposed to no good Seasons yet....

FWIW, I don’t think he will be on this list in a couple of years time, but worthy of consideration at this point.

I think you are being harsh on a couple up there too.

 

[st_trav_ofWA]

Josh Fraser was a very good player at the start of his career, and was a serviceable ruck for the remainder.

my memory of him was having two decent years followed by a series of almost years where he almost reach his potential .. he got to 200 games so i wouldnt put him as the worst but he would be at the lower end from that 93 to 2018 era of number 1 picks