Prediction Draft rumours

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Look at our recruitment over the last 8-10 years.
Very few misses and lots of late gems.

Retention an issue, sure... but recruiting has been pretty damn good.

I certainly rate your drafting and development, better than most clubs, but if you dissect it, you are still only firing at 60 ish % over the last 10 years.

Says a lot about my club, prior to the last 3 years
 

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Think you’re right.

They did make some remark that they see a massive difference between 4 and 8.

I agree with the sentiment. There is a fairly clear top 6 or 7. Then there is a few you could pick between 8-20.
 
To give up pick 4 saints would (at minimum) want 8 and one of 13/16 from Adelaide. Even then doubtful they’d take it.
OK, I've reworked it here...
What do ya think?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 27 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8, Pick 16 and Pick 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 21 (Adelaide)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 16 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32
 
Jye Caldwell says hello (he is very much in the top 5-8 conversation)

The exception to the rule but he does come with risk attached. Could be the best in the draft- could also be the next injury prone talented youngster. I hope he makes it I never like seeing talented players not make it due to their bodies not their talent.
 
OK, I've reworked it here...
What do ya think?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 27 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8, Pick 16 and Pick 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 21 (Adelaide)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 16 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32
swap pick 16 and pick 21 - ie St Kilda get 7 & 16 and Dogs get 8 & 21 and it looks about right
 
The exception to the rule but he does come with risk attached. Could be the best in the draft- could also be the next injury prone talented youngster. I hope he makes it I never like seeing talented players not make it due to their bodies not their talent.
Agree and injury did stop him from showing off his talents this year, but he could easily become the best mid from this years draft class and that is why of the crows don't / can't trade up to get Lukosius or rankine, then most of us crows fans would be stoked to get Caldwell at pick 8
 

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I certainly rate your drafting and development, better than most clubs, but if you dissect it, you are still only firing at 60 ish % over the last 10 years.

Says a lot about my club, prior to the last 3 years

Not going to go through it all, but as far as our 1st and 2nd round selections its been around 7-8 out of 10.
The other thing is we have never had top picks to use, where other teams have managed to squander top 5 or top 10 picks.
We have 1 top 10 pick on our list and its Gibbs. There is certainly a system there that is working.

Rendell/Ogilvie and co. are a couple of few administrators that deserve credit from AFC.
 
Agree and injury did stop him from showing off his talents this year, but he could easily become the best mid from this years draft class and that is why of the crows don't / can't trade up to get Lukosius or rankine, then most of us crows fans would be stoked to get Caldwell at pick 8

Caldwell would be a decent get, and it's the risk you can take with multiple first rounders.
 
OK, I've reworked it here...
What do ya think?

Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 27 (Bulldogs), Pick 32 (Bulldogs)
out: Pick 8, Pick 16 and Pick 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 21 (Adelaide)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 16 (Adelaide), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 7, Pick 27 and Pick 32

Recon saints knocked back 8 and 13 for 4 so don’t think they do anywhere near it.

Saints would need to get 7 and 8 to consider giving up 4.
 
swap pick 16 and pick 21 - ie St Kilda get 7 & 16 and Dogs get 8 & 21 and it looks about right
OK - I've altered the proposed deal below.
Adelaide get pick 4.
St Kilda win by getting pick 16 (swapped for pick 36).
Dogs only possibly get a win if pick 21 is before the West bid - dangerous and could backfire


Adelaide
in: Pick 4 (Saints), Pick 27 (Bulldogs), Pick 36 (St Kilda)
out: Pick 8, Pick 16 and Pick 21

St Kilda
in: Pick 7 (Bulldogs), Pick 16 (Adelaide)
out: Pick 4, Pick 36

Bulldogs
in: Pick 8 (Adelaide), Pick 21 (Adelaide),
out: Pick 7, Pick 27
 
Yep. Mentions other picks will be involved.

Probably makes sense GWS are taking the risk I guess. Does suit them though as it spreads their selections, they have a few highly rated Academy boys next season
 

Definition of 'rumour'

Word forms: plural rumours story or piece of information that may or may not be true, but that people are talking about.
We have been denying rumours of a split since the first week we got together.
There have been persistent rumours of quarrels within the movement.
There's a strange rumour going around at the moment about Peter.


Definition of 'speculation'
noun 1. the act or an instance of speculating
2. a supposition, theory, or opinion arrived at through speculating
3. investment involving high risk but also the possibility of high profits

from the Collins English dictionary.
Just helping a few out :huh::cool:
 
Last edited:
Not going to go through it all, but as far as our 1st and 2nd round selections its been around 7-8 out of 10.
The other thing is we have never had top picks to use, where other teams have managed to squander top 5 or top 10 picks.
We have 1 top 10 pick on our list and its Gibbs. There is certainly a system there that is working.

Rendell/Ogilvie and co. are a couple of few administrators that deserve credit from AFC.

I use a formula, as a break even measure for recruitment (draft).

Pick 9 - 150 games
Pick 27 - 100 games
pick 54 - 50 games

Any other pick success or extra games played is what can set a recruiter apart

https://www.footywire.com/afl/footy/td-adelaide-crows?year=2008

Set aside 2010, when you only had a 1st rounder and remove B.Crouch as he was part of the mini draft, start from 2008 and work forward. Your strike rate is still around 2/3rds if using the above formula

As I said, you do it better than most sides.
 

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