2018 Draft thread

[Leuy LongerCombo]

I've stated this all before, but I'll cover it again.

On the Thursday night, I stated that I thought we'd gone early on Smith. My logic for this is that if no other club invited him into the draft (known as he was a late call up by us), that'd imply that roughly the 5 clubs before and 1 club after didn't have him as even a slight option at their picks. Not certain, but highly likely correct. That said, our pick was unfortunately positioned - it was just after that 2nd tier of player, and none of them slid through. Fair enough. But this year we have live trading.

Reported we tried to trade up and failed. Fair enough - not going to criticise us for not overpaying. But if it's likely that Ely would've slid a bit (based on the logic in my first point), we could've tried to trade down, and still get him, and possibly get more. Reports from Thursday function attendees was that we were also looking at moving up the order with later picks in order to get in 2 before McFadyen was bid on. On Friday morning (pre-round 2), I suggested this as a trade:

Now, it's possible that we tried that and got rebuffed. Possible, but unlikely. The reason I say unlikely is that just two picks later, Gold Coast traded those two picks for pick 23 and a 5th rounder. So my theory of pick 21 + 32 (which is roughly where our picks would've been at that time) would likely have been snapped up by GC. Quite likely (given original logic above) that Smith would've been there at GC's pick. And then we'd have Smith+29 instead of Smith+35, which (when it's been reported we were concerned about a McFadyen bid before our 35) would've been good breathing room. May have still got the same players, may have not.

We do seem like we go into drafts with set ideas of the players we want. I've heard reporters like Twomey state that quite often, a player will slide longer than they should because clubs are set on who they like, and just take the guy they thought would be available at their pick, instead of taking the one that slid, and they didn't really consider being available at their pick. I don't know how much that's true, but I'd say off the back of the last few years, we're probably the type of club who'd do that. Not being critical of the club there - they have finite resources, and they can't do a head-to-head of every single player in the draft ahead of time. I just find it interesting.

Also - I didn't criticise the club for taking Berry. I actually stated that we likely did more research on Berry than anyone else (given family connections) and had a good idea what he was worth, and while he reportedly wasn't great this year, he was also reportedly played out of position and sore. If just one other club knew that (and it was public information), and factored it in, it's quite likely Berry wouldn't have slid, regardless of what reporters said.

Worth noting that both Melbourne and Sydney didn’t have a first round pick, so therefore wouldn’t have nominate anyone to attend.

They both had a pick in between our first and the potential Gold Coast picks you’ve mentioned. They selected Sparrow and Rowbottom, a few draft profiles have them as contested beast with decent strength/pace. Not inconceivable one may have selected Ely instead.

 

[BangyBangy]

Never thought I'd say this but our current team is shaping up to potentially be as good (or perhaps almost as good) as the 2001-2004 era team.

It's official. The lid is off.

 

[Lions Flag 2020]

I've stated this all before, but I'll cover it again.

On the Thursday night, I stated that I thought we'd gone early on Smith. My logic for this is that if no other club invited him into the draft (known as he was a late call up by us), that'd imply that roughly the 5 clubs before and 1 club after didn't have him as even a slight option at their picks. Not certain, but highly likely correct. That said, our pick was unfortunately positioned - it was just after that 2nd tier of player, and none of them slid through. Fair enough. But this year we have live trading.

Reported we tried to trade up and failed. Fair enough - not going to criticise us for not overpaying. But if it's likely that Ely would've slid a bit (based on the logic in my first point), we could've tried to trade down, and still get him, and possibly get more. Reports from Thursday function attendees was that we were also looking at moving up the order with later picks in order to get in 2 before McFadyen was bid on. On Friday morning (pre-round 2), I suggested this as a trade:

Now, it's possible that we tried that and got rebuffed. Possible, but unlikely. The reason I say unlikely is that just two picks later, Gold Coast traded those two picks for pick 23 and a 5th rounder. So my theory of pick 21 + 32 (which is roughly where our picks would've been at that time) would likely have been snapped up by GC. Quite likely (given original logic above) that Smith would've been there at GC's pick. And then we'd have Smith+29 instead of Smith+35, which (when it's been reported we were concerned about a McFadyen bid before our 35) would've been good breathing room. May have still got the same players, may have not.

We do seem like we go into drafts with set ideas of the players we want. I've heard reporters like Twomey state that quite often, a player will slide longer than they should because clubs are set on who they like, and just take the guy they thought would be available at their pick, instead of taking the one that slid, and they didn't really consider being available at their pick. I don't know how much that's true, but I'd say off the back of the last few years, we're probably the type of club who'd do that. Not being critical of the club there - they have finite resources, and they can't do a head-to-head of every single player in the draft ahead of time. I just find it interesting.

Also - I didn't criticise the club for taking Berry. I actually stated that we likely did more research on Berry than anyone else (given family connections) and had a good idea what he was worth, and while he reportedly wasn't great this year, he was also reportedly played out of position and sore. If just one other club knew that (and it was public information), and factored it in, it's quite likely Berry wouldn't have slid, regardless of what reporters said.

I think we recruited 5 All Australians and we will look back with the fullness of time that this was the Lions greatest ever draft.

 

[CarterS]

Reading Moneyball at the moment and one over arching theme of the part I’ve read so far is that if you rate someone in the draft you pick them, don’t think a bit about where others rate them. Guy was picking players in the first round that no one else even rated in the first 5 or 6 rounds. If you like someone, take them.

Spotthedog1 you might enjoy the book if you haven’t read it. Not that we are the A’s nor Noble a Billy Beane but the idea of backing your own judgement in is the same.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Reading Moneyball at the moment and one over arching theme of the part I’ve read so far is that if you rate someone in the draft you pick them, don’t think a bit about where others rate them. Guy was picking players in the first round that no one else even rated in the first 5 or 6 rounds. If you like someone, take them.

Spotthedog1 you might enjoy the book if you haven’t read it. Not that we are the A’s nor Noble a Billy Beane but the idea of backing your own judgement in is the same.

We kinda are the A's in a lot of ways.

 

[CarterS]

We kinda are the A's in a lot of ways.

Not in a literal sense

 

[Scubaveg]

Never thought I'd say this but our current team is shaping up to potentially be as good (or perhaps almost as good) as the 2001-2004 era team.

That’s a call that’s way out there.


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Nunez]

We kinda are the A's in a lot of ways.

Not quite the A's but the B.L's.

 

[BangyBangy]

No one to rival Martin Pike or Darryl White yet.

If we shave Ely Smith's head he might pass for a bigger version of Pikey. No one yet to fill the boots of either Darryl White or Chris Johnson IMO. We just had so many brilliant players, Johnson was my favorite.

 

[CarterS]

Never thought I'd say this but our current team is shaping up to potentially be as good (or perhaps almost as good) as the 2001-2004 era team.

At their current ages that is.

 

[golions]

Are we sure the due dilligence was done Ely Smith and how comfortable he was in being drafted to Brisbane?

-He didn't look that ecstatic to be drafted to Brisbane (being drafted is usually a big moment in a kid's life)
-He was holidaying in Thailand at the time - you'd think if we had spoken to him he'd have some idea that he'd be drafted and probably wouldn't have gone on holiday?
-He himself said he was just told to come back early from holiday by the AFL but wasn't sure which clubs were considering him

It doesn't add up to me that he wouldn't have more of an idea that we were keen on him especially given we drafted him with our first pick

 

[BangyBangy]

Are we sure the due dilligence was done Ely Smith and how comfortable he was in being drafted to Brisbane?

-He didn't look that ecstatic to be drafted to Brisbane (being drafted is usually a big moment in a kid's life)
-He was holidaying in Thailand at the time - you'd think if we had spoken to him he'd have some idea that he'd be drafted and probably wouldn't have gone on holiday?
-He himself said he was just told to come back early from holiday by the AFL but wasn't sure which clubs were considering him

It doesn't add up to me that he wouldn't have more of an idea that we were keen on him especially given we drafted him with our first pick

Of course due diligence was done. He was asked how passionate he is for the Lions & he said that he would die for the club, although his preference is to kill for it.

 

[Viceregal]

Never thought I'd say this but our current team is shaping up to potentially be as good (or perhaps almost as good) as the 2001-2004 era team.

What was that Lethal said about dynasties being known in retrospect?

I know we like to talk about player x being our Voss and player y being our Black etc and I imagine if we could clone young healthy versions of a lot of them we would happily play them in our team but while I would love to see us win some senior silverware and would love for your comment to come true I suspect it is a bit early for any valid prognostication (of course if you have a history of successful prophecy feel free to link ).

I get what you are saying though and I am excited about what we are uncaging and I want to enjoy the journey and the victories we win as Lions in the present without comparing them too much to a different era of legendary Lions ... of course I would not object in the slightest if conversations about the best team this century included two different Lions' teams in it

 

[jackess]

Are we sure the due dilligence was done Ely Smith and how comfortable he was in being drafted to Brisbane?

-He didn't look that ecstatic to be drafted to Brisbane (being drafted is usually a big moment in a kid's life)
-He was holidaying in Thailand at the time - you'd think if we had spoken to him he'd have some idea that he'd be drafted and probably wouldn't have gone on holiday?
-He himself said he was just told to come back early from holiday by the AFL but wasn't sure which clubs were considering him

It doesn't add up to me that he wouldn't have more of an idea that we were keen on him especially given we drafted him with our first pick

You’re probably right. We probably barely spoke to him and had no idea about him.

How stupid do you think the people who run this club are?

 

[golions]

You’re probably right. We probably barely spoke to him and had no idea about him.

How stupid do you think the people who run this club are?

Righto.

Just asking the question - he seems like a straight forward kid. If we'd had a good chat to him and worded him up about the possibility (especially if we were eying him for our first pick) that he'd mention it.

Instead his body language and statements suggest otherwise.

 

[Dylan12]

Righto.

Just asking the question - he seems like a straight forward kid. If we'd had a good chat to him and worded him up about the possibility (especially if we were eying him for our first pick) that he'd mention it.

Instead his body language and statements suggest otherwise.

No offence intended but you’re wrong on a few accounts I’m afraid to say.

 

[Nunez]

Of course due diligence was done. He was asked how passionate he is for the Lions & he said that he would die for the club, although his preference is to kill for it.

He then preceded to lick his lips when repeating "kill for it".

 

[jackess]

Righto.

Just asking the question - he seems like a straight forward kid. If we'd had a good chat to him and worded him up about the possibility (especially if we were eying him for our first pick) that he'd mention it.

Instead his body language and statements suggest otherwise.

Maybe it’s not a great idea to promise these kids too much.

I’m guessing you’ve never met anyone who doesn’t like to show his emotions. At least on a national broadcast.

 

[Suitcase]

If we shave Ely Smith's head he might pass for a bigger version of Pikey. No one yet to fill the boots of either Darryl White or Chris Johnson IMO. We just had so many brilliant players, Johnson was my favorite.

Witherden to play the same role as Johnson in our next premiership. Darryl White was a freak though, hard to replicate a player of his skillset.

 

[Gadzorks]

Are we sure the due dilligence was done Ely Smith and how comfortable he was in being drafted to Brisbane?

-He didn't look that ecstatic to be drafted to Brisbane (being drafted is usually a big moment in a kid's life)
-He was holidaying in Thailand at the time - you'd think if we had spoken to him he'd have some idea that he'd be drafted and probably wouldn't have gone on holiday?
-He himself said he was just told to come back early from holiday by the AFL but wasn't sure which clubs were considering him

It doesn't add up to me that he wouldn't have more of an idea that we were keen on him especially given we drafted him with our first pick

I like that Ely was a last minute call up to the night and that most clubs passed the opportunity to select him.

The upgrade from being a back in the pack selection to being called up for first round selection is a big boost/lifelong boasting rights.

Also shows him that we were the only club who placed that value on him - other first rounders (especially top 10) would have had multiple suitiors but he had only us and nothing breeds loyalty better than only having one suitor. Yes, could have gone to other clubs later, but we prized him as our first pick when nobody else rated him there. Show 'em what they missed Ely!!!

 

[Brett C]

Are we sure the due dilligence was done Ely Smith and how comfortable he was in being drafted to Brisbane?

-He didn't look that ecstatic to be drafted to Brisbane (being drafted is usually a big moment in a kid's life)
-He was holidaying in Thailand at the time - you'd think if we had spoken to him he'd have some idea that he'd be drafted and probably wouldn't have gone on holiday?
-He himself said he was just told to come back early from holiday by the AFL but wasn't sure which clubs were considering him

It doesn't add up to me that he wouldn't have more of an idea that we were keen on him especially given we drafted him with our first pick

No the club didn’t scout him at all and no one knew who he was, I think Fagan or Noble had watched the movie Book of Eli and though f*ck let’s draft a guy whose name is similar.

Clubs very rarely tell a player they will 100% draft them as things change. The AFL invite the players based on clubs requests but they don’t then tell the kids which clubs.

 

[McLuggages]

I've stated this all before, but I'll cover it again.

On the Thursday night, I stated that I thought we'd gone early on Smith. My logic for this is that if no other club invited him into the draft (known as he was a late call up by us), that'd imply that roughly the 5 clubs before and 1 club after didn't have him as even a slight option at their picks. Not certain, but highly likely correct. That said, our pick was unfortunately positioned - it was just after that 2nd tier of player, and none of them slid through. Fair enough. But this year we have live trading.

Reported we tried to trade up and failed. Fair enough - not going to criticise us for not overpaying. But if it's likely that Ely would've slid a bit (based on the logic in my first point), we could've tried to trade down, and still get him, and possibly get more. Reports from Thursday function attendees was that we were also looking at moving up the order with later picks in order to get in 2 before McFadyen was bid on. On Friday morning (pre-round 2), I suggested this as a trade:

I read here a lot but rarely post - but came on to agree with a lot of what you've posted.

I was pretty disappointed after the draft for the same reasons as you - in my mind we had pick 19 (back a bit after academy picks) plus maybe Ely (or others) at 30, McFayden at 35 and Berry at ~56. By going early it felt like we were reaching and settling.

It also felt like we were a whisker away from the second tier (Stocker, RCD, Duursma) going in the handful of picks prior.

I keep logically telling myself that I trust Noble and Fagan 100% and they are a lot better at this game am than I am so I'm sure it'll end up fine.

Watching the highlights of all our draftees multiple times I'm pretty content with the package of draftees we've got - they all seem to have excellent clean hands, amazing vision with handballs and agility/acceleration (apparently).

Similar in the way to Hawks won the flag with good ballers by foot (lefties) perhaps Fagan thinks our strategy going forward is probing handballs out of the contest - I can actually envisage Ely/Joyce (my favourite draftee) taking a side step and feeding it out a quick handball to Cutler (23 years old), Lewis Taylor (23), Bailey (19), McLuggage (20) to break the lines.

I seem to remember the Dogs 2016 side had excellent hands around the contest.

 

[McLuggages]

Keen to get peoples opinion on which of the draftees will play and where?

I made a silly bet with a friend in my post-draft rage that Ely will play less than 5 games next year.

I know there is a predicted 22 forum...but based on below I actually think there is a space on the field for one of them to get a pressure forward spot? Also wouldn't be surprised to one rotated through the midfield...

Backs
Gardiner, Harris, Adams
Witherden, Hodge, Roberston
Rotation: Walker, Christiansen, Rich

Mids:
McClug, Zorko, Cutler
Martin, Neale, Berry
Rotation: Lyons, Bailey, Matheson, Starc (?)

Forward 6
Taylor, McStay, Rayner
Cameron, Hipwood, ???
Rotation: Oscar?, Robinson, McCarthy

Need a big preseason for a spot: Keays, Allison, Eagles, Cox, Ballendon, Payne, Wooler

 

[jjami15]

Keen to get peoples opinion on which of the draftees will play and where?

I made a silly bet with a friend in my post-draft rage that Ely will play less than 5 games next year.

I know there is a predicted 22 forum...but based on below I actually think there is a space on the field for one of them to get a pressure forward spot? Also wouldn't be surprised to one rotated through the midfield...

Backs
Gardiner, Harris, Adams
Witherden, Hodge, Roberston
Rotation: Walker, Christiansen, Rich

Mids:
McClug, Zorko, Cutler
Martin, Neale, Berry
Rotation: Lyons, Bailey, Matheson, Starc (?)

Forward 6
Taylor, McStay, Rayner
Cameron, Hipwood, ???
Rotation: Oscar?, Robinson, McCarthy

Need a big preseason for a spot: Keays, Allison, Eagles, Cox, Ballendon, Payne, Wooler

For the first time in a long time the draftees IMO will take a few games/development before playing. We are slowly building some depth and in the midfield I feel that there are antsy of others in front of the current draftees. I kind of agree with your sentiments in regards to Ely, he is a big boy and will definitely play inside at the coal face but believe that he will take time but will get a taste sometime throughout the year similar to Starcevich. Berry I feel will get games first out of everyone due to his athletic profile and that they will play him as a defensive forward but it will take some injuries for spots to open up. Joyce will surprise some and that he will get games and it will be him v Berry to see who plays first, has had a year out of football though so have no issues gradually increasing his playing time in the reserves. McFadyen, I hope they develop him as a midfielder and that will be in the twos and have no problems if at the end of the year he hasn't tasted senior footy. Answerth, there are a number of HBF in front of him and again like McFadyen have no issues if he has a year of development in the twos.

 

[briztoon]

I read here a lot but rarely post - but came on to agree with a lot of what you've posted.

I was pretty disappointed after the draft for the same reasons as you - in my mind we had pick 19 (back a bit after academy picks) plus maybe Ely (or others) at 30, McFayden at 35 and Berry at ~56. By going early it felt like we were reaching and settling.

It also felt like we were a whisker away from the second tier (Stocker, RCD, Duursma) going in the handful of picks prior.

I keep logically telling myself that I trust Noble and Fagan 100% and they are a lot better at this game am than I am so I'm sure it'll end up fine.

Watching the highlights of all our draftees multiple times I'm pretty content with the package of draftees we've got - they all seem to have excellent clean hands, amazing vision with handballs and agility/acceleration (apparently).

Similar in the way to Hawks won the flag with good ballers by foot (lefties) perhaps Fagan thinks our strategy going forward is probing handballs out of the contest - I can actually envisage Ely/Joyce (my favourite draftee) taking a side step and feeding it out a quick handball to Cutler (23 years old), Lewis Taylor (23), Bailey (19), McLuggage (20) to break the lines.

I seem to remember the Dogs 2016 side had excellent hands around the contest.

I'm another who agrees that it feels like we went a little early on Ely. I mentioned when his name was first brought up, that it might be possible to move back about 5 picks and still be fairly confident in drafting him. But you have to have a potential trade partner who offers a sweet enough package to move back.

It was mentioned on here by countryVicLion I'm pretty sure, before round two kicked off, that Geelong were very much in to Berry jr, having interviewed and talked to him a lot. I was surprised when no one on here picked up and commented on that post. I believe we went for Berry when we did because we were worried that possibly McFadyen would be bid on before our next pick, meaning that we had to hope Berry slipped to our pick in the 50's. And I think from memory Geelong had two picks before our pick in the 50's.

There was also a post from a Fremantle supporter that Fremantle were pretty confident they could pick up Joyce with one of their last two picks, and were surprised when the Lions went for Joyce so early.


While I would have liked a bit more value from our first pick (i.e. Duursma or a trade back with a later pick upgrade), I am very happy with the kids we drafted and how our draft unfolded.


What concerns me a little is Matt Balmer (who then passes the information on to pie for life) having such good intel on our draft picks ahead of the first and second round. That's information that really should be kept in-house.