Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

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bmaurizio said:
Disagree IMHO, Bugg, Newman will do well, also Fasolo and McGovern smart additions their mature bodies will support our youngsters and help reduce the pressure off Thomas, Simpson and Murphy. We’ll be a more aggressive and assertive goals scoring team.
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I think Bugg will play if we actually select our best 22, which I doubt we will and seeming he is only on the rookie list I think he will struggle to keep his spot. Simpson would be turning 36 if he went on for another year so I see that as unlikely and Thomas would be going on 33 so if he gets pushed out of the side he will be let go. Those three I think will be lucky to be on the list in 2020
 

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Blue__Balls said:
How much did we skew the average though :p
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All part of it, isn't it !!:D

We have had 52 changes in the last 4 off seasons (some say 54, but we redrafted 2 players. That is an average of 13 per year, but this year it was 12. Over the next 4 years, I expect our average to be closer to the 7 players, really depends on what players we now target
 
Arr0w said:
I like the concept, but if you are adding JSOS to GF (which I agree with), you should be adding Plowman and Marchbank as GD, as they are not genuine KPD's and generally better suited to 3rd tall/medium forwards. That would change your split from 3-3-1-3-3-9 to 2-3-1-4-3-9
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I think Marchbank will definitely play on the 2nd tall forward and Plowman would be good for sides that have 3 talls. The thing with JSOS is he wouldn't really play that tall role in the forward line he'd be in there as a defensive forward. The unfortunate/fortunate thing for JSOS is he probably fits into every category bar ruck. He can be played in the middle or like Plowman as a 3rd tall defender or even as a small defender.
 
jd2010 said:
I think Marchbank will definitely play on the 2nd tall forward and Plowman would be good for sides that have 3 talls. The thing with JSOS is he wouldn't really play that tall role in the forward line he'd be in there as a defensive forward. The unfortunate/fortunate thing for JSOS is he probably fits into every category bar ruck. He can be played in the middle or like Plowman as a 3rd tall defender or even as a small defender.
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People are asking a fair bit from Marchbank, at the moment, to play on at least half the 2nd tall forwards in the league. Some examples

  • Dixon, Westoff, Lycett/Ryder
  • Daniher, Stewart, Hooker
  • Kennedy, Vardy, Hickey/Nic Nat
  • Hawkins, Stanley/Abbott, Ratugolea/Buzza
Personally, I think the 2 x KPDs will be Jones (waiting until one of Macreadie/Godddard come on) and Weitering.

Marchbank's best work (at the moment), is playing on 3rd talls/medium forwards and being the intercept marker.

Plowman is the one that might be under the greatest pressure, but the club needs to find the right match up each week, rather than playing him on a small forward
 
Arr0w said:
People are asking a fair bit from Marchbank, at the moment, to play on at least half the 2nd tall forwards in the league. Some examples

  • Dixon, Westoff, Lycett/Ryder
  • Daniher, Stewart, Hooker
  • Kennedy, Vardy, Hickey/Nic Nat
  • Hawkins, Stanley/Abbott, Ratugolea/Buzza
Personally, I think the 2 x KPDs will be Jones (waiting until one of Macreadie/Godddard come on) and Weitering.

Marchbank's best work (at the moment), is playing on 3rd talls/medium forwards and being the intercept marker.

Plowman is the one that might be under the greatest pressure, but the club needs to find the right match up each week, rather than playing him on a small forward
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Marchbank is 1cm shorter than Alex Rance and 3cm taller than Jeremy McGovern. If those 2 can matchup on key forwards so can Marchbank.

I do agree that he and Weitering are both interceptors and not lock down and what Rance and McGovern have in their side is 1-2 teammates who do the lockdown role so they can do what they do best. Of the 8 tall defenders on our list I wouldn't know who could actually do that role. Are Goddard, Macreadie and BSOS your Grimes & Schofield types? Jones & Plowman fighting for that 3rd spot in the backline one of them needs to become more lockdown than they currently are.
 
For list management next year we need to start looking around for a Ruck. Kruezer turns 30 next year, and I have concerns for the big fella's health going forward. We need to trade in a quality Ruck from somewhere over the next two years as a replacement.

I'm keen next year to throw the farm at Kelly, Cognilio and Tomlinson from GWS (the latter two are Free agents next year) and see if we cant shake one loose.

Screw the draft next year. We can take 3 mature aged players with the required 3 Picks you have to take for all I care (including a VFL Ruck as backup). Next year I want us going all in with trades and F/A, with all picks (including all future selections) on the table.
 
Malifice said:
For list management next year we need to start looking around for a Ruck. Kruezer turns 30 next year, and I have concerns for the big fella's health going forward. We need to trade in a quality Ruck from somewhere over the next two years as a replacement.

I'm keen next year to throw the farm at Kelly, Cognilio and Tomlinson from GWS (the latter two are Free agents next year) and see if we cant shake one loose.

Screw the draft next year. We can take 3 mature aged players with the required 3 Picks you have to take for all I care (including a VFL Ruck as backup). Next year I want us going all in with trades and F/A, with all picks (including all future selections) on the table.
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I was surprised we didn't once get linked with Prues. There's always a ruck or two looking for opportunity every trade period so we should find one to take one of Lobbe & Phillips spot. Personally I really rate Phillips but he is as injury prone as Kruze!
 
Pretty pumped to see what this list can now do in 2019. There's genuinely only Casboult on the list who I'm expected to be delisted
 
jd2010 said:
Doing my own list analysis using the Champion Data model for classifying players. List looks pretty well covered in all areas. Next year probably need to look at our rucks but apart from that we've got good depth to play through the middle and the high HFF line. This is my take of the US style depth chart with the top player in each category the 1st choice in the area.

View attachment 588737

In terms of picking a 22 any given week for me it's 3-3-1-3-3-9 in terms of good balance. Could potentially go in with 10 of the listed midfielders and go 1 lighter in GF or KPD depending on matchups.
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Forgot Cuningham which isn't a good thing for him. Would have him just ahead of Stocker at his point so our 12th best mid
 
jd2010 said:
Marchbank is 1cm shorter than Alex Rance and 3cm taller than Jeremy McGovern. If those 2 can matchup on key forwards so can Marchbank.

I do agree that he and Weitering are both interceptors and not lock down and what Rance and McGovern have in their side is 1-2 teammates who do the lockdown role so they can do what they do best. Of the 8 tall defenders on our list I wouldn't know who could actually do that role. Are Goddard, Macreadie and BSOS your Grimes & Schofield types? Jones & Plowman fighting for that 3rd spot in the backline one of them needs to become more lockdown than they currently are.
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You can't just go on height, Rance is so much stronger in the core at the moment, but I am sure Caleb will continue to build. McGovern is not shorter, he is 195 cm

I guess it comes down to horses for courses, I would rather go into a game with Weitering, Jones (Macreadie/Goddard) and Marchbank. Gives us flexibility if there is an injury and Jones and Marchbank can play on smaller opponents

Anyway, it will be interesting
 
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jd2010 said:
I was surprised we didn't once get linked with Prues. There's always a ruck or two looking for opportunity every trade period so we should find one to take one of Lobbe & Phillips spot. Personally I really rate Phillips but he is as injury prone as Kruze!
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Yeah, it's an area we are vulnerable in going forward. Lobbe was OK, Kruezer is fantastic (but always a little fragile) and Phillips is handy backup (when he isnt also injured also... which is all the time). Kruezer and Lobbe turn 30 next year and Phillips turns 28. Im OK with the three on the list for next year (we should have at least one ready for AFL selection each week) but I have grave concerns from 2020 onwards.

Watching Grundy and Gawn this year and you simply cant understimate how valuable a quality Ruck (who is also a quality footballer) is to a side.

We need to find a qualtiy ruck somewhere over the next 2 years. We should start looking next year.

A quality small forward and another elite midfielder or tall utility wouldnt go astray either.
 
Arr0w said:
You can't just go on height, Rance is so much stronger in the core at the moment, but I am sure Caleb will continue to build. McGovern is not shorter, he is 195 cm

I guess it comes down to horses for courses, I would rather go into a game with Weitering, Jones (Macreadie/Goddard) and Marchbank. Gives us flexibility if there is an injury and Jones and Marchbank can player on smaller opponents

Anyway, it will be interesting
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I think both JW & Marchbank are a couple years off being ready physically to be at the AA levels of those guys but in terms of what's on our list they've got to lineup on the KPF. Physically they're going to lose one on ones to guys like Dixon & Hawkins etc. more often than not in 2019 but no more than a Jones or H.Goddard would. 2019 isn't the year that this all falls into place there's still going to be physical demands in games that our guys just can't cope (in defence and midfield) with and hence why we'll lose more games than we win. But it's about 2020 and beyond and the more these guys we know are in that potential elite bracket like JW & Marchbank we need them continuing to play with each other in the roles they will in the future even if they're not physically ready.
 
Arr0w said:
All part of it, isn't it !!:D

We have had 52 changes in the last 4 off seasons (some say 54, but we redrafted 2 players. That is an average of 13 per year, but this year it was 12. Over the next 4 years, I expect our average to be closer to the 7 players, really depends on what players we now target
Click to expand...

Yeah. At some point we have to swing the other way and drop below the average. Wanted it to be this year, but a few unplanned exits put paid to that.

Expecting Simpson to hang up the boots, but not guaranteed.
Murphy and Kreuzer should go round again, barring catastrophic injury.
Curnow has a few really good years left.
Thomas looks to be hitting his straps again, and I'd expect him to get an extension.

Beyond that lot, the only players who should be leaving are the ones we decide to part ways with.

On a clock: Phillips, Casboult
Go hard or go home: Cuningham, Pickett, Garlett, Lebois, Lang, Fasolo, Goddard, Bugg

Those first two will, I think, make way next year.
The other seven have either had their chances with us and need to deliver, or have been offered a lifeline and need to return the faith.

If I had to guess, I think the 2019 outgoing list will be:
Simpson (ret), Casboult (del), Phillips (del), Pickett (del), Lebois (del), Lang (del)

I've got a feeling Cunners will do enough this year to be given a short extension.
Fasolo looks motivated, and is real quality. May come down to fitness though.
Get a good vibe from Bugg, and think he'll be a solid contributor for a few years.
We'll probably persist with Goddard, given he's depth only anyway (in an area we don't have much depth) and has upside.
Pickett vs. Garlett - reckon we'll only keep one. Garlett just ahead based on workrate, but Pickett has him for talent and could swing this if he gets his s**t together.

6 changes, plus any unexpected shenanigans.
 
Arr0w said:
We have had 52 changes in the last 4 off seasons (some say 54, but we redrafted 2 players. That is an average of 13 per year, but this year it was 12. Over the next 4 years, I expect our average to be closer to the 7 players, really depends on what players we now target
Click to expand...
Next year it's strange looking at the list and nearly expecting everyone to be there in 2020. For me the obvious ones to go are Casboult (should hopefully be passed by McKay & Kerr this year), Thomas (retired), Simmon (50/50 at his age if there's 2 more I hope there is), Murphy (same as Simmo) & then LeBois, Garlett, Pickett and Cuningham probably fighting for their playing careers in 2019. All 4 of those in the latter group I do hold some hope that they'll have long careers but it's in their court at the moment
 
Blue__Balls said:
Yeah. At some point we have to swing the other way and drop below the average. Wanted it to be this year, but a few unplanned exits put paid to that.

Expecting Simpson to hang up the boots, but not guaranteed.
Murphy and Kreuzer should go round again, barring catastrophic injury.
Curnow has a few really good years left.
Thomas looks to be hitting his straps again, and I'd expect him to get an extension.

Beyond that lot, the only players who should be leaving are the ones we decide to part ways with.

On a clock: Phillips, Casboult
Go hard or go home: Cuningham, Pickett, Garlett, Lebois, Lang, Fasolo, Goddard, Bugg

Those first two will, I think, make way next year.
The other seven have either had their chances with us and need to deliver, or have been offered a lifeline and need to return the faith.

If I had to guess, I think the 2019 outgoing list will be:
Simpson (ret), Casboult (del), Phillips (del), Pickett (del), Lebois (del), Lang (del)

I've got a feeling Cunners will do enough this year to be given a short extension.
Fasolo looks motivated, and is real quality. May come down to fitness though.
Get a good vibe from Bugg, and think he'll be a solid contributor for a few years.
We'll probably persist with Goddard, given he's depth only anyway (in an area we don't have much depth) and has upside.
Pickett vs. Garlett - reckon we'll only keep one. Garlett just ahead based on workrate, but Pickett has him for talent and could swing this if he gets his s**t together.

6 changes, plus any unexpected shenanigans.
Click to expand...

I know he had a resonable/decent year, but I would be surprised if Thomas is still on the list and of next year.

At least now, all players are genuinely fighting for positions
 
Re Ben Silvagni. Does anyone get the feeling that we just drafted the better of the brothers and a real McCoy Silvagni. In the interview I thought I was listening to Steve
 
I suspect that 2019 will the last year for Kruz and Daisy.

I think Simpson still has 2 years left in the tank, if not more. I just don't see any degradation in his game. Barring injury, which he usually is clean in, he still has plenty to give the Carlton Football club beyond next year.

I would love Murph to hang around, if possible. Do a Shane Crawford and see some success with this new list.
 
StandByyourMan said:
Re Ben Silvagni. Does anyone get the feeling that we just drafted the better of the brothers and a real McCoy Silvagni. In the interview I thought I was listening to Steve
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poor old finbar - journos gave him nothing and couldn't wait to get back to ben - bit embarrassed for him actually.......
 
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