Opinion Out of all these young guys, who will make it?

[SilentHunter_]

Of NEAFL

You're just jealous of his talent.

 

[Sydswans666]

You're just jealous of his talent.

Yeah definitely

 

[bungee]

James Rose - 150+ games after an injury to Papley opens the gate
Jordan Foote - 20+ if he cuts off the man bun
Will Hayward - 175 + mostly as a mid
Oliver Florent - 50 + but never really cements a spot
Nic Newman - 200 future captain
Harrison Marsh - 75 games (71 of those in the NEAFL)
Jordan Dawson - 2 games, one of which is a premiership before being traded to Hawks
Sam Naismith - 92 games then traded to Saints who win premiership that year
Aliir Aliir - just 23 games after sex scandal with the wife of a team mate taints his career.
Robbie Fox - who ?
Brandon Jack - 150+ games for GWS after being picked up in rookie draft

 

[Morefunn]

Hi guys, long time lurker here. I finally rejigged my password. Time to get involved. I love this thread. HAd to dig deep to find it, thought it’s a good read worth revisiting.

 

[caesar88]

Hi guys, long time lurker here. I finally rejigged my password. Time to get involved. I love this thread. HAd to dig deep to find it, thought it’s a good read worth revisiting.

It’s certainly funny reading back how many didn’t rate Florent

 

[anotherletdown]

It’s pretty ugly looking back on some of those predictions.

Time to add my embarrassments to the list but I’ll choose later drafts

2017
Ling 25-50
McCartin 200+
Stoddart 75-100
Upgrades
O’Riordan 100+
Mellican 200+

2018
Blakey 200+
Rowbottom 125+
McInerney 0-25
Foot 50-75
Rookie
Tucker 0-25
Reynolds 0

Hayward, Florent, Mellican, Hewett, Mills, Heeney, Blakey and McCartin will all play 200. The backbone of our next premiership is already in place

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Great Thread.

Here are mine from 2017 and 2018.
Ling - 45 (traded to Geelong. We refused Grohan and took a 4th rounder.
Stoddard - 25, retires to be poster beanstalk for Weight Watchers
McCartin _ 150 games before trade to the taints.
Amartey is a Smarty - 25
Bell - 80

2018
Blakey - 200
Rowbottom - 120
McInerney - 170
Foot - 50
Reynolds - 150
Tucker - 60
Wicks - 30

 

[legend166]

Awesome, I'm glad this thread was bumped because it's exactly why I made it.

Looking at my predictions so far:


I think Hayward, Marsh, Aliir and Naismith will go on to play 150 games. - On track for 2/4 being right. Naismith still a toss up but I wouldn't bet on it now.

Rose will probably get cut this year. - Somehow still on the list despite actually not showing any more proof after my original post that he can be a decent AFL player.

Foote, Newman and Fox will probably be depth players for a few years but won't have huge impact. - Called it.

Florent is giving me huge Pat Veszpremi vibes, I.e a bust. - He's proving me wrong.

Jordan Dawson will struggle to get a game when we're all fit. - Still think this is accurate.


Just remember if you're making more predictions it's better to do it with players we've seen a little bit of. Sort of pointless to try and predict new draftees.

 

[Big Blood]

Of those named in OP:
Hayward, Florent and Aliir are the pick of the crop - surely all 150+ games. Only query: is Hayward competing for his spot against Menzel?
Nic Newman I rated a year ago but he had a pretty average year.
James Rose - I thought he'd be cut this year but he has another 1-year contract. We really don't have a shortage of small forwards. 20 games
Dawson's the hard one. The best kick in the club after Buddy, a big body but a little slow for our slow midfield. 50 games
Fox - depth player - 30 games.

2017 crop
McCartin - 100-150 games
Stodhard - looks good but haven't seen enough of him.
No idea about Ling

2018 crop
Blakey - for sure 150 games
Rowbotham looks a keeper - 100+
No idea about the rest.

 

[Swansujelly]

Zac foot e will play 200, no problems

 

[Tedeski]

The question I would ask is, if they make it, how many will play more games for us than for a poaching Vic club?

 

[The King!]

James Rose. 60 games
Jordan Foote. 3 -5 games
Will Hayward. 150 plus
Oliver Florent. 100 plus
Nic Newman. 150 plus
Harrison Marsh. 75 plus
Jordan Dawson. Less than 25
Sam Naismith. 120 plus
Aliir Aliir. 200 plus
Robbie Fox less than 20

Swap rose and Dawson and I’ll take that

 

[Mick Oxlong]

Zac foot e will play 200, no problems

Whether he plays 200 or not, I think he’s the one with the most talent.

 

[caesar88]

Whether he plays 200 or not, I think he’s the one with the most talent.

... out of all our youngsters ?!

 

[Mick Oxlong]

... out of all our youngsters ?!

Just out of this draft crop. His highlights impressed me the most.

 

[caesar88]

Just out of this draft crop. His highlights impressed me the most.

I really like the look of this kid and Robo as well but it's hard to go past Blakey for me. His highlights were just different to the usual run of the mill U18 highlights you see of talls. Either way I'm rapt we got the three of them, two of them for steals IMO!

 

[Mick Oxlong]

I really like the look of this kid and Robo as well but it's hard to go past Blakey for me. His highlights were just different to the usual run of the mill U18 highlights you see of talls. Either way I'm rapt we got the three of them, two of them for steals IMO!

Don’t forget that it was widely considered that had McCartin been available this year, he’d have been (expected) Top 10.

Draft numbers are just like ATAR scores really, they mean nothing after you’re drafted and those that have great success are generally the go getting hard workers!

 

[caesar88]

Don’t forget that it was widely considered that had McCartin been available this year, he’d have been (expected) Top 10.

Draft numbers are just like ATAR scores really, they mean nothing after you’re drafted and those that have great success are generally the go getting hard workers!

All very true. That's where we've done so well in the past, getting hard workers and/or turning kids into hard workers. Shameless plug but in this post [https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/2019-list-game-plan-and-best-22.1204200/page-24#post-58849337] I had McCartin as pick 15 in a retrospective of his draft year, and that was based on his debut half-season as the youngest player in the comp. So yeah we more than anyone have made a mockery of draft numbers IMO.

 

[caesar88]

Looking at the 12 listed Swans yet to debut (Ling, Blakey, Rowbottom, Foot, McInerney, Bell, Pink, Amartey, Maibaum, Reynolds, Wicks and Tucker), who do we think is most likely to debut this year?

For me from most likely to least likely based purely on where they're at with their pre-seasons and also the roles they'd be playing in the senior side, I would say:

1. Blakey
2. Ling
3. McInerney
4. Foot
5. Rowbottom
6. Bell
7. Tucker
8. Maibaum
9. Amartey
10. Wicks
11. Reynolds
12. Pink

I really don't see where Pink goes tbh. Not that I don't rate him (I'm indifferent based on very limited knowledge of him) but more that he is behind in the pecking order of talls. We have Buddy, Sinclair, Reid, McCartin, with now Blakey and Dawson coming through as taller forward options, and even Amartey and Cameron over-took Pink on account of NEAFL games and experience last year. Just don't see where his opportunity will come from.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

I think it will be another big year for debuts, in addition to Menzell and Clarke also getting games.

I can see the following debuts as near certainties provided they stay fit -

1 Blakey
2 Ling
3 Rowbottom

My next group of 'would not be surprised' are -

4 McInerney
5 Bell
6 Tucker

My absolute smokey is Amartey, who I hope is making rapid progress.

I think the others need solid development years.

 

[caesar88]

I think it will be another big year for debuts, in addition to Menzell and Clarke also getting games.

I can see the following debuts as near certainties provided they stay fit -

1 Blakey
2 Ling
3 Rowbottom

My next group of 'would not be surprised' are -

4 McInerney
5 Bell
6 Tucker

My absolute smokey is Amartey, who I hope is making rapid progress.

I think the others need solid development years.

I agree with the first two, as Blakey will be a certainty for round one and there's just no way we can go two whole seasons without unveiling one of our first-round picks in Ling. That just wouldn't happen.

I hope you're right regarding Amartey. I'd love for him to carve out a career at senior level, because he's a hard worker and also has athleticism, just like Blakey and McCartin. Could be a three-headed dragon for the post-Buddy and Reid years.

 

[Number37]

I think it will be another big year for debuts, in addition to Menzell and Clarke also getting games.

I can see the following debuts as near certainties provided they stay fit -

1 Blakey
2 Ling
3 Rowbottom

My next group of 'would not be surprised' are -

4 McInerney
5 Bell
6 Tucker

My absolute smokey is Amartey, who I hope is making rapid progress.

I think the others need solid development years.

Would not be surprised if Foot gets a game in R1.

 

[caesar88]

Would not be surprised if Foot gets a game in R1.

Yeah it sounds as though he and McInerney have really impressed this pre-season, and Horse isn't against giving a kid a go ahead of a NEAFL toiler.

 

[RobbieK]

I think Maibaum is much more likely to get a debut this season than some of these 18 year old midfielders. Our KPD stocks are Aliir, Grundy and Melican. Rampe and Reid can do a job in a pinch but that isn't their primrary role. With Grundy another year older, this is almost definitely his last season, and Melican coming off some injuries it isn't hard to imagine Maibaum needing to get the call up at some point.

 

[caesar88]

I think Maibaum is much more likely to get a debut this season than some of these 18 year old midfielders. Our KPD stocks are Aliir, Grundy and Melican. Rampe and Reid can do a job in a pinch but that isn't their primrary role. With Grundy another year older, this is almost definitely his last season, and Melican coming off some injuries it isn't hard to imagine Maibaum needing to get the call up at some point.

There’s also Thurlow though. Maibaum will need to rely on injuries IMO, whereas some of the 18 yr old mids may get a crack if we happen to need what they can bring for particular matches.