2019 team rankings according to Champion Data

[FrustratedTiger]

Champion Data stats have always only been relevant when they confirm the point you are trying to make. Otherwise they are completely useless

 

[blackcat]

Maybe the importance champion data rates on certain stats has become outdated

they must tweak the algorithms surely, or Ted Hopkins files chapter eleven *

#browntablets
American corporate regulatory statutes innit

 

[Vikingnz]

This is obviously based on pure stats, so there are no biases involved there

Haha, what? There is bias, in the model builder determining what weightings to apply to different stats.

 

[shintemaster]

So this year's Grand Finalists were rated 12th (premiers) and 10th. Top team after the H&A were rated 8th. Three of the top four after H&A were rated outside of the top eight.

Top ranked team knocked out in the first week of the finals (and pantsed in the process), the second and third ranked team didn't even make the finals.

Oh and the current Brownlow Medallist wasn't rated as elite. Neither was the bloke that won the Coleman Medal.

And Jack Watts was rated as above average.

Admittedly their stats wouldn't account for injuries - who, when, mid game, training related etc... But yeah, this is not an individual sport so stats are of less value than some sports except for where there are clearer 1 on 1 contests (say ruck contests) or kicking for goal, specific angles etc.

 

[MarkT2]

Surely this is embarrassing for Champion Data?

The 2018 list proves how inaccurate the CD system is on a team assessment and the 2019 list looks like more confirmation. How can the premier be ranked so low? They don't have a highly ranked midfield but come September the WCE midfield beat Collingwood's twice and destroyed Melbourne's.

It's not possible that CD's ranking formulae equate to actually winning which after all is what the ladder actually does measure.

 

[00Stinger]

It’s hard to believe the coverage this stats crap gets. I guess it’s the fantasy footy thing.

you know all AFL clubs use their stats, right?

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[Engimal v3]

2018

18. Carlton – One elite player (Sam Docherty).

Bit rough on Cripps, yeah?

 

[00Stinger]

Essendon only have 2 elite players? what about Merret,Smith,Shiel,Heppel,Fantasia etc

Get stuffed Champion data lols

none of those players are elite

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[Isaac Cumming No 1]

none of those players are elite

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Shiel was in the AA team in 2017, that's a pretty elite group.

 

[Topkent]

Shiel was in the AA team in 2017, that's a pretty elite group.

Being elite for a single season doesn't make you elite. Then James Frawley is still an elite FB

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Being elite for a single season doesn't make you elite. Then James Frawley is still an elite FB

He's 25, doubt it will be his only time. He wasn't eligible in 2015 because of injury. , Must have been close in 2016 and played a new role in 2018 for the first time.

 

[Trav 20]

CD's stats and algorithms have far more credibility than the IPCCs flawed climate model predictions, which are never correct, yet I bet most of you lemmings worship the climate change hoax.

The irony.

 

[Engimal v3]

CD's stats and algorithms have far more credibility than the IPCCs flawed climate model predictions, which are never correct, yet I bet most of you lemmings worship the climate change hoax.

The irony.

Yeah, * climate change believers!

 

[Topkent]

He's 25, doubt it will be his only time. He wasn't eligible in 2015 because of injury. , Must have been close in 2016 and played a new role in 2018 for the first time.

Irrelevant. He's not in the AFL elite

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Irrelevant. He's not in the AFL elite

No it isn't, and yes he is.

 

[Gethelred]

Also one problem with the model that Champion Data seem to be using is they are not trying to predict improvements in younger players and declines in older ones. There are stats on how much better an average player is at 21 than he was at 20, so it would be interesting if Champion Data applied those stats, and predicted improvements in young players based on past improvements by not only them individually but also the average improvements from players.

Fraught with huge problems. Do 21 year olds improve across the board? Do they do so sufficiently to provide what, a 10-20% statistical bump for all 21 year olds across the board as a predictive model?

Champion data release this kind of thing for several reasons, but one of them is to highlight the weaknesses of a purely statistical approach of observing AFL. They don't depict things as they could be, or try to predict the future; the depict things as they are, make of it what you will. It's the media and the Supercoach people that make much of it.

 

[Sprout]

Not sure if serious...

Just utterly clueless.

 

[blitzer]

Champion data are not any better at predicting the ladder than anyone else. It is however good to get an objective and stats driven view point to add to the overall argument.

One of the weaknesses of using stats to drive player value is that players that are assigned more negative or negating roles will always be underrated. This could include a range of roles including defenders, taggers, defensive forwards etc. On the flip side if you are comparing certain roles it probably does a pretty good job. eg comparing key forwards or comparing rucks.

Some stats are situational for how much value they provide. I've always thought of tackles in this way. For example if an slow inside midfielder racks up tackles well to be honest, yes its good to lay tackles rather than not laying them but they are not even close to comparable to a tackle inside 50 particularly if it gives up a free. I'd rather 1 run down tackle that wins a free than 3 i'll just hug the nearest player in congestion tackles so we get a ball up.

 

[Topkent]

No it isn't, and yes he is.

So your elite must be like 20% of the competition then

 

[AmericanAFL]

Champion Data seems to be more about stat padding e.g. look at Tom Mitchell and where he was rated this year. Best stat padding teams are at the top is not a surprise. Melbourne have the likes of Gawn, Oliver, Viney who love the cheap possessions and Adelaide with Laird, Sloane etc as well loving the cheap possessions

Honest question from a new fan- what constitutes a cheap possession in your opinion?

Also, any other examples of stat padding you could explain would be greatly appreciated.

 

[Trav 20]

The West Coast poster was just having a laugh. I'm not sure why he's being taken seriously.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Champion data are not any better at predicting the ladder than anyone else. It is however good to get an objective and stats driven view point to add to the overall argument.

One of the weaknesses of using stats to drive player value is that players that are assigned more negative or negating roles will always be underrated. This could include a range of roles including defenders, taggers, defensive forwards etc. On the flip side if you are comparing certain roles it probably does a pretty good job. eg comparing key forwards or comparing rucks.

Some stats are situational for how much value they provide. I've always thought of tackles in this way. For example if an slow inside midfielder racks up tackles well to be honest, yes its good to lay tackles rather than not laying them but they are not even close to comparable to a tackle inside 50 particularly if it gives up a free. I'd rather 1 run down tackle that wins a free than 3 i'll just hug the nearest player in congestion tackles so we get a ball up.

Is that a stat that is tracked- “tackles that win a free”?

 

[Topkent]

Honest question from a new fan- what constitutes a cheap possession in your opinion?

Also, any other examples of stat padding you could explain would be greatly appreciated.

Cheap possession generally means people think it added no value.
So often you will see a midfielder handball to someone standing still who will handball it back to them. Cheap

Or a bloke who gets it and handpasses backwards. Cheap

We value more aggressive use of the ball here. So someone going in an winning it in amongst 3 blokes raising his arms and then handballing it to someone clear is a valuable touch. Basically it's how we separate players who both get 30 disposals as some like Dangerfield and Martin will create forward momentum when they get the ball where as others just pass the problem onto someone else so to speak.

 

[RUNVS]

Honest question from a new fan- what constitutes a cheap possession in your opinion?

Also, any other examples of stat padding you could explain would be greatly appreciated.

Cheap possession is usually one that is not an attacking disposal, and not under a lot of pressure. It is especially true when a player gets 2, 3 or even 4 disposals in the space of a few seconds when a team is handballing it amongst themselves.

 

[AmericanAFL]

Cheap possession generally means people think it added no value.
So often you will see a midfielder handball to someone standing still who will handball it back to them. Cheap

Or a bloke who gets it and handpasses backwards. Cheap

We value more aggressive use of the ball here. So someone going in an winning it in amongst 3 blokes raising his arms and then handballing it to someone clear is a valuable touch. Basically it's how we separate players who both get 30 disposals as some like Dangerfield and Martin will create forward momentum when they get the ball where as others just pass the problem onto someone else so to speak.

Ok thanks. Is there anyone out there attempting to track stats that combine an element of “value judgement” by a human? So in this case a stat like “productive disposal”.