Prediction 2019 Ladder Predictions + 2020 Ladder early Predictions ( Page 115+ )

[Trav 20]

Fair enough on Harmes. Would like to see him do it for more than eight games or whatever it was that he strung together at the end of the season. Jones does look like he’s falling off a cliff though so I’ll pay it.

I would still quite easily prefer Hibberd, May and Jetta over Lever at this point in time. Lever still has deficiencies plus he’ll be coming back from a second knee reco. I’m skeptical as to whether he’ll ever fulfill his potential.

Weideman looks promising but still has a long way to go. Petracca should be there already and could easily be one or two in the future. Unfortunately he has stagnated a bit. Needs to lose weight and build endurance. Salem will never be in your top ten players. A good-average player.

Petracca has improved every year, but it has been incrementally slower than I expected. He does, however, give huge value to nearly every possession. I think he's reached about 60% of his potential.

Weideman has a long way to go, but at 21 with a best on ground in a final it's fair to say I'm bullish about his ceiling. 13 contested marks in his last 5 games - 3 of them finals - was terrific. He'll be a better key forward than Tom McDonald, who's ranked 5th in the league for key forwards by CD.

I think Salem is a very good player, but I agree he's not far off his ceiling.

I think players like Fritsch and Kolodjashnij have tremendous upside.

I think Lever is a gun, so we'll agree to differ.

I don't disagree much with your summation.

 

[SnusCG]

We obviously won’t make finals, but don’t think Gold Coast are going to be anywhere near as bad as people seem to think we will be, provided we can keep our list healthy. There was a point last season where we had only 1 listed player left in the reserves (scrimshaw) and we still finished 2 games clear of Carlton. Brand new coaching staff and S&C coaches ought to help as well

 

[jimsim]

Where's Lever ? He's most definitely in our top 10.

Harmes has surpassed Jones. Harmes started in the centre square for the first bounce in our first final in 12 years. He also finished third in the B&F. It may only be one year, but it's the here and now.

For me Jones is no longer in our best 10 players.

I'm happy with eight out of ten of that list with the additions of Lever and Harmes.

I expect players like Petracca, Weideman, and Salem to be giving it a nudge sooner rather than later.

Yeah and Dan Howe starts in the centre square for the first bounce in almost every game instead of Shiels. I don't get what starting in centre bounces has to do with anything.

 

[StevoJenkins]

We obviously won’t make finals, but don’t think Gold Coast are going to be anywhere near as bad as people seem to think we will be, provided we can keep our list healthy. There was a point last season where we had only 1 listed player left in the reserves (scrimshaw) and we still finished 2 games clear of Carlton. Brand new coaching staff and S&C coaches ought to help as well

I think all the bottom 4 teams will win more games next year. Whether that leads to higher ladder positions is yet to be seen, depends on who falls and how far they do so.

 

[Trav 20]

Yeah and Dan Howe starts in the centre square for the first bounce in almost every game instead of Shiels. I don't get what starting in centre bounces has to do with anything.

How about third in the B&F in a team finishing 4th ?

Does that do it for you ?

 

[BarbieITFC]

Here goes...my first ever ladder prediction

1: Richmond
2: Adelaide
3: GWS
4: Melbourne
5: West Coast
6: Essendon
7: Collingwood
8: Port
9: Sydney
10: Hawthorn
11: Freo
12: Geelong
13: Bulldogs
14: North
15: Brisbane
16: Carlton
17: Saints
18: Gold Coast

I think the top 6 are clear of the rest in terms of potential (barring injuries) and the bottom 3 are IMO miles off the pack.

I think there's a chance the Swans, Hawks and Cats all finish out of the eight, but this will be as far as they drop before building back into the eight - I just don't see them as ever really being bottom 6 material in the near future (success breeds success in modern sport - even in an equalised environment).

I can see Freo finishing 9-11 wins. We've got our easiest draw in years and should reasonably expect to be 3-0 (North home, Suns away, Saints home) - and a good start can go a long way to a decent season - even if we drop off the pace after the bye like the last two seasons.

 

[Goggin Our Best]

1. Melbourne
2. Richmond
3. Collingwood
4. West Coast
5. Adelaide
6. Hawthorn
7. North Melbourne
8. Essendon
------------------
9. GWS
10. Bulldogs
11. Sydney
12. Brisbane
13. Geelong
14. Carlton
15. Fremantle
16. Port Adelaide
17. St Kilda
18. Gold Coast

Alot of posters have put MELB finishing no 1 on the ladder ( i think they will comfortably make the 8) however there are still plenty of doubts

That final against West Coast - that was a shocking performance - couldnt handle the finals heat - and got destroyed - what was it at half time - about 12 goals to nothing - they looked a million miles off it

I think you anchor Rich Eagles and Coll - but Melb ( good luck to them ) but i think are still a bit sus

 

[Dez!]

Alot of posters have put MELB finishing no 1 on the ladder ( i think they will comfortably make the 8) however there are still plenty of doubts

That final against West Coast - that was a shocking performance - couldnt handle the finals heat - and got destroyed - what was it at half time - about 12 goals to nothing - they looked a million miles off it

I think you anchor Rich Eagles and Coll - but Melb ( good luck to them ) but i think are still a bit sus

Couldn't handle the finals heat? Handled "the heat" against Hawthorn and Geelong quite comfortably the first two weeks of the finals.

People are seriously overrating the Eagles game, Melbourne played poorly and the Eagles punished them but it's just one game.

 

[Trav 20]

Alot of posters have put MELB finishing no 1 on the ladder ( i think they will comfortably make the 8) however there are still plenty of doubts

That final against West Coast - that was a shocking performance - couldnt handle the finals heat - and got destroyed - what was it at half time - about 12 goals to nothing - they looked a million miles off it

I think you anchor Rich Eagles and Coll - but Melb ( good luck to them ) but i think are still a bit sus

Just like the round 22, 2017 loss against Collingwood with finals on the line was the end of the world. What happens ? Make finals for the first time in 12 years and a prelim.

Richmond lose their last game of 2016 against Sydney by 113 points. Wins the flag the next year.

I know we had a lot to play for, but the reality is that a still young side hit the wall in round 26.

People take way too much notice of one bad game, but little notice of the good ones.

Convenient.

 

[jimsim]

How about third in the B&F in a team finishing 4th ?

Does that do it for you ?

Why you didn't use that fact in your original comment is quite confusing. Fair point.

 

[Trav 20]

Why you didn't use that fact in your original comment is quite confusing. Fair point.

12 posts above on this page I did mention it.

And you'll note the post isn't edited.

 

[Lsta062]

Couldn't handle the finals heat? Handled "the heat" against Hawthorn and Geelong quite comfortably the first two weeks of the finals.

People are seriously overrating the Eagles game, Melbourne played poorly and the Eagles punished them but it's just one game.

It was just one of those games where most things went against Melbourne. They miss one target and away West Coast goes. Wasn’t one of those games that exposed Melbourne in my opinion since it resembled the 92-10 performance by St Kilda against Richmond in 2017 which was Richmond’s Premiership year. Only thing was that Melbourne did not have next week to atone for the performance.

Gotta admit though, that first half by West Coast was one of the strongest defensive performances that I have ever seen. I really don’t think many (if any) teams of 2018 would have survived that performance.

 

[DontArgue4]

Couldn't handle the finals heat? Handled "the heat" against Hawthorn and Geelong quite comfortably the first two weeks of the finals.

People are seriously overrating the Eagles game, Melbourne played poorly and the Eagles punished them but it's just one game.

Do you have the same "it was one game" mentality about the tiges performance in the prelim or is that just a dees allowance?

 

[Dez!]

Do you have the same "it was one game" mentality about the tiges performance in the prelim or is that just a dees allowance?

I don't give a s**t about the Tigers.

 

[Xhoquelin]

Fair enough on Harmes. Would like to see him do it for more than eight games or whatever it was that he strung together at the end of the season. Jones does look like he’s falling off a cliff though so I’ll pay it.

I would still quite easily prefer Hibberd, May and Jetta over Lever at this point in time. Lever still has deficiencies plus he’ll be coming back from a second knee reco. I’m skeptical as to whether he’ll ever fulfill his potential.

Weideman looks promising but still has a long way to go. Petracca should be there already and could easily be one or two in the future. Unfortunately he has stagnated a bit. Needs to lose weight and build endurance. Salem will never be in your top ten players. A good-average player.

Lever was absolutely fantastic from about round six onwards. With him our defence definitely looks more solid. As soon as he got injured our structure collapsed, Lewis Vince got exposed for being far too slow and all the individual defending in the world from Jetta and OMac couldn’t stop us from leaking points.

May looks a gun, I could see him having a similar defensive organisation effect on our backline to Lever. Nev and Hibbo are very very good players but in terms of importance I think Jakey Lever could have already surpassed both. Limited sample size though so I can understand your point even though I’m pretty sold on Lever.

 

[DontArgue4]

I don't give a s**t about the Tigers.

So snappy

 

[Xhoquelin]

It was just one of those games where most things went against Melbourne. They miss one target and away West Coast goes. Wasn’t one of those games that exposed Melbourne in my opinion since it resembled the 92-10 performance by St Kilda against Richmond in 2017 which was Richmond’s Premiership year. Only thing was that Melbourne did not have next week to atone for the performance.

Gotta admit though, that first half by West Coast was one of the strongest defensive performances that I have ever seen. I really don’t think many (if any) teams of 2018 would have survived that performance.

Thanks for this. We definitely choked for parts of the game with missed set shots in the second and third quarters but honestly for the first forty five minutes I liked what we were trying to accomplish, breaking lines and trying to get our way through their defensive structure with risky plays. Just basic handball errors let us down and West Coast being the premiership side they ended up being pounced on these turnovers like every great team does. Credit to the Eagles for forcing us to play in such a risky way for such an inexperienced side, because they were picking off everything going long.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

The final against West Coast reminded me when Essendon got flogged by Sydney.

 

[Egga]

Richmond
Hawthorn
West Coast
Essendon
Collingwood
North Melbourne
Geelong
Sydney
------------
Melbourne
Adelaide
GWS
Port Adelaide
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Freo
St Kilda
Carlton
Gold Coast

Rationale:





*I don't consider 'organic improvement' (or decline) as it very rarely actually eventuates as much or as quickly as expected (e.g. Hawks, Swans and/ or Cats were supposed to fall off the cliff last year, while Saints, Blues and Lions were apparently ready to make a charge). Every club has great yoof burning up the track. In this case I have made only one exception for Brisbane and raised them up a couple of spots based on the improvement they actually DEMONSTRATED in the second half of season 2018.

Interested in other people's thoughts.....

 

[Kimbo]

People take way too much notice of one bad game, but little notice of the good ones.

Convenient.

I'd call it 'preferable' myself.

I don't give a s**t about the Tigers.

...because I don't give a s**t about the Dees.

So, how about those 2019 ladder predictions...?

 

[Kimbo]

Richmond
Essendon
Hawthorn
Collingwood
North Melbourne
West Coast
Sydney
Geelong
------------
Melbourne
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
GWS
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Freo
St Kilda
Carlton
Gold Coast

Rationale:
View attachment 590818

*I don't consider 'organic improvement' (or decline) as it very rarely actually eventuates as much or as quickly as expected (e.g. Hawks, Swans and/ or Cats were supposed to fall off the cliff last year, while Saints, Blues and Lions were apparently ready to make a charge). Every club has great yoof burning up the track. In this case I have made only one exception for Brisbane and raised them up a couple of spots based on the improvement they actually DEMONSTRATED in the second half of season 2018.

Interested in other people's thoughts.....

It's so difficult to try and 'science' football.

While there will be subjective assessments within categories, at least there is a sense of justification for why you've got teams where you have. Of course there will always be other factors (organic improvement or decline is too difficult to predict) that you could build into a model like this, but that's just adding more subjective assessment. Of course that's what this whole exercise is about, but once again, at least you've 'shown your workings'.

'Fixture', not 'Draw'.

 

[Joao]

Richmond
Essendon
Hawthorn
Collingwood
North Melbourne
West Coast
Sydney
Geelong
------------
Melbourne
Adelaide
Port Adelaide
GWS
Brisbane
Bulldogs
Freo
St Kilda
Carlton
Gold Coast

Rationale:
View attachment 590818

*I don't consider 'organic improvement' (or decline) as it very rarely actually eventuates as much or as quickly as expected (e.g. Hawks, Swans and/ or Cats were supposed to fall off the cliff last year, while Saints, Blues and Lions were apparently ready to make a charge). Every club has great yoof burning up the track. In this case I have made only one exception for Brisbane and raised them up a couple of spots based on the improvement they actually DEMONSTRATED in the second half of season 2018.

Interested in other people's thoughts.....

Are you ratings from an algorithm and/or some data or just you plucking numbers out of thin air?

 

[Egga]

Are you ratings from an algorithm and/or some data or just you plucking numbers out of thin air?

It's an algorithm:
Draw: Number of games v top 4 and bottom 4 in 2019 compared to 2018
Trade: Number of elite, A and B grade players traded in and traded out AND the number of close games the club had which might have been decided by the presence/ absence of these players
Injury: I've just edited my original post to also account for injuries vs league average, which has shuffled the top 8 order a little

 

[THE_GUN]

Richmond
Melbourne
West Coast
GWS
Essendon
Collingwood
Geelong
Adelaide

Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Brisbane
North Melbourne
Fremantle
StKilda
Carlton
Gold Coast

 

[Kimbo]

Richmond
Melbourne
West Coast
GWS
Essendon
Collingwood
Geelong
Adelaide

Sydney
Port Adelaide
Hawthorn
Bulldogs
Brisbane
Fremantle
StKilda
Carlton
Gold Coast

NM?