Review Winners and losers of the draft (2018 edition)

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Suma Magic said:
Some links from a quick google.

https://www.perthnow.com.au/sport/a...p-tim-kelly-trade-next-year-ng-b88994967z.amp

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www...er/tim-kelly-fails-to-secure-a-trade-home/amp

This is a good source too:

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Geelong only asked for that in the end because West Coast could not procure a top 10 pick which is what Geelong had always asked for. Not sure how hard West Coast tried but they could have packaged their two second rounders for a mid first. Think they may have tried to do the deal Sydney did with Adelaide and Carlton for pick 13 but it was already too far down the road.
 
Everyone rated Sydney well for the trade they did with West Coast. But was it actually that good?

Based on assumed finishing positions from the odds market of 3rd for West Coast and 7th for Sydney:

As a result of the trade they ended up with picks 25, 44 and 51. Also a 2019 third from West Coast, which will be pick 52.

If they hadn't made the trade, they would have ended up with picks 43, 44, 45 and 55. And also kept their future second (pick 30).

So in the trade scenario they will be using (or have used) 25, 44, 51 and 52.

In the non-trade scenario they would have used (or will use) 30, 43, 44, 45 and 55.

You can say that the 44s cancel out, and perhaps the 51/52 and 45/55 cancel out.

That leaves it as:
- pick 25, or
- picks 30 and 43.
 

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Suma Magic said:
Everyone rated Sydney well for the trade they did with West Coast. But was it actually that good?

Based on assumed finishing positions from the odds market of 3rd for West Coast and 7th for Sydney:

As a result of the trade they ended up with picks 25, 44 and 51. Also a 2019 third from West Coast, which will be pick 52.

If they hadn't made the trade, they would have ended up with picks 43, 44, 45 and 55. And also kept their future second (pick 30).

So in the trade scenario they will be using (or have used) 25, 44, 51 and 52.

In the non-trade scenario they would have used (or will use) 30, 43, 44, 45 and 55.

You can say that the 44s cancel out, and perhaps the 51/52 and 45/55 cancel out.

That leaves it as:
- pick 25, or
- picks 30 and 43.
Click to expand...

We won't need our second rounders next year- we have an academy player in the pipeline who will be around that mark whose name is escaping me for some reason. he'll be a late first-mid second bid probably. Made sense to have a live one this year in a strong draft. This really was a win win trade. Both cubs got something out of it, that's how trading should be.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
We won't need our second rounders next year- we have an academy player in the pipeline who will be around that mark whose name is escaping me for some reason. he'll be a late first-mid second bid probably. Made sense to have a live one this year in a strong draft. This really was a win win trade. Both cubs got something out of it, that's how trading should be.
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That's good info that I hadn't considered. Although playing devil's advocate, you could have kept your second and then traded it next year once you know where the player is actually rated.

On the numbers the trade is a loss for Sydney, but overall I don't think it's necessarily a bad result. More just interesting to see what the outcome was if they hadn't done the trade.
 
Suma Magic said:
That's good info that I hadn't considered. Although playing devil's advocate, you could have kept your second and then traded it next year once you know where the player is actually rated.

On the numbers the trade is a loss for Sydney, but overall I don't think it's necessarily a bad result. More just interesting to see what the outcome was if they hadn't done the trade.
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We probably rated a few prospects this year (and Rowbottom looks like a mid we've lacked for a number of years) who were still on the table as higher than keeping a second next year, of which that second would just be used for points anyway. Can always split out first next year if need be. Honestly I feel very comfortable with the trade and so should West Coast. Gives them flexibility in the likely Tim Kelly deal (will cost at least 1-2 second rounders out of your 5 you have acquired).
 
Suma Magic said:
Everyone rated Sydney well for the trade they did with West Coast. But was it actually that good?

Based on assumed finishing positions from the odds market of 3rd for West Coast and 7th for Sydney:

As a result of the trade they ended up with picks 25, 44 and 51. Also a 2019 third from West Coast, which will be pick 52.

If they hadn't made the trade, they would have ended up with picks 43, 44, 45 and 55. And also kept their future second (pick 30).

So in the trade scenario they will be using (or have used) 25, 44, 51 and 52.

In the non-trade scenario they would have used (or will use) 30, 43, 44, 45 and 55.

You can say that the 44s cancel out, and perhaps the 51/52 and 45/55 cancel out.

That leaves it as:
- pick 25, or
- picks 30 and 43.
Click to expand...
It's not as good as the instant reactions to that deal but I think it's not too bad if you look at the price other teams paid this year to move up to get a pick around the 25 mark.

Gold Coast gave up 27 and 32 for 23 and a future 5th.

GWS gave up 28 and a future 2nd for 24 and a future 5th to get Bobby Hill (and to prevent a Crows academy bid).

They are both bad trades on paper from teams with exceptional circumstances but they also indicate the price is pretty steep to get in to that part of the draft.

If the Swans were happy that they'd get the players they wanted with later picks anyway then giving up pick 43 to secure a higher rated player in the 20's now instead of a player in the 30's next year makes sense to me.
 
LukeParkerno1 said:
We won't need our second rounders next year- we have an academy player in the pipeline who will be around that mark whose name is escaping me for some reason. he'll be a late first-mid second bid probably. Made sense to have a live one this year in a strong draft. This really was a win win trade. Both cubs got something out of it, that's how trading should be.
Click to expand...

Josh Rayner is the name i think you are after, not sure on details but I think projected to be a tall and playing at both ends of the ground at the moment. Someone to look out for during the season and see where he ends up being rated, member of the AFL academy but with the changes to that system I think they are only state based now
 
fridgeman said:
Josh Rayner is the name i think you are after, not sure on details but I think projected to be a tall and playing at both ends of the ground at the moment. Someone to look out for during the season and see where he ends up being rated, member of the AFL academy but with the changes to that system I think they are only state based now
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That’s the one the name just escaped me. He’s not rated as high as Blakely but probably shaping as a solid early second round selection.
 
Brett C said:
Scully if you can get him fit is for me one of the biggest trade steals in the last 20 years. The guy is a gun and underrate by too many.

With the rule changes his type of run/carry and kicking effectiveness makes him even more important
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The guy had a fracture through his joint! He'll be very lucky to play well again.
 
Ancient Tiger said:
The guy had a fracture through his joint! He'll be very lucky to play well again.
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Especially given his endurance running is (was) his thing. Hate good players getting done over by injury, and hope he gets back, but as much of a steal as it seemed for Hawthorn, I'm thinking in time GWS will be the winner for getting anything in return and cap dump.

Not really draft though.
 
Ancient Tiger said:
The guy had a fracture through his joint! He'll be very lucky to play well again.
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The fracture has healed well and it's the syndesmosis injury that's taking time which isn't unusual.

Players from multiple sports have suffered this type of injury or worse and come back from them. The fact that he's one of the most professional players in the comp gives him more hope than most and I hardly think the Hawks would have taken the chance on a 3 year deal if they had major concerns.
 

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Brett C said:
The fracture has healed well and it's the syndesmosis injury that's taking time which isn't unusual.

Players from multiple sports have suffered this type of injury or worse and come back from them. The fact that he's one of the most professional players in the comp gives him more hope than most and I hardly think the Hawks would have taken the chance on a 3 year deal if they had major concerns.
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The club doctor himself thought he was a 50:50 chance to be able to play AFL level footy. That's why he went so cheap.
 
I know DFA not draft, but does anyone else think Sydney giving Dan Menzel Alex Johnson's number is just tempting fate a touch too hard?
 
Barlow#14 said:
In - Out
Wingard 25 - Rioli 29
Scully 27 - Whitecross 28
Minchington 24 - Duryea 27
Scrimshaw 20 - Burton 21
Kosi 18 - Heatherley 23
Walker 18 - ORourke 24
Greaves 18 - Lovell 21
Golds 18 - Wilsmore 23
Mohr 30 - Vickery 28

That's a net win. IMO.
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Fascinating to see what Clarkson gets out of Wingard and Scrimshaw
 
FWIW Knightmare did give Freo a D+ Rating after the 2017 draft for choosing Brayshaw and Cerra and overlooking LDU. Not sure that’s worth the worst rating performance of all clubs in 2017. So I wouldn’t pay too much attention to post draft ratings given no-one really confidently knows which kids can successfully take the step up to the next level.
 
Wild Bill said:
Not sure you can use that as a fair comparison - Mitchell finished 8th in the Swans B&F in 2016 - behind Kennedy, Hannebury & Parker in the midfield alone.
The 2018 Mitchell wouldn't be traded for pick 14. Agree the Hawks got an amazing deal. If he finished 2nd that year not sure he would have gone for 14.
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WAT?!? Mitchell was clearly the Swan's best player in the GF before he moved to Hawks!
 
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