Opinion Which player has the greatest trade value?

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Bit premature on calling 27 the twilight of his career - it's where most players peak, especially the bigger guys.

Not in the conversation for greatest trade value though.

Probably not.

For a team in the window needing a contested marker in the forward 50 he'd be worth a fair bit in trade though.

 

[Bulldog1954]

Cripps or Grundy for mine.

Best young mid in the comp who can also play KPF.

He's a strong mark and has the physical attributes, but Cripps hasn't actually shown he can play as a KPF (not that he has really been given much chance to show it). He is also a really poor shot for goal.

 

[DangerSloane]

He's a strong mark and has the physical attributes, but Cripps hasn't actually shown he can play as a KPF (not that he has really been given much chance to show it). He is also a really poor shot for goal.

He's shown he can play it by dominating there for periods in games while 'resting' (no real resting in modern footy but you know what I mean). His goal kicking can definitely improve but his field kicking isnt bad and hes supremely talented so i dont see why not.

 

[Suma Magic]

Really surprised that people are mentioning Grundy. He is good, but not that good.

Players that come to mind are Cripps, Kelly, Oliver, Bont, Heeney, Curnow, de Goey, Rankine, Mitchell, McGovern, Fyfe Martin.

I’d say Grundy is in the 10-20 group. Not as god as Gawn, but younger.

 

[master bate]

Tier X (basically not available - would cause the club to explode at just about any price) --> Cripps
Tier 1 (picks 2, 3 and 6 probably needed, if the player asked to go) --> Bontempelli (Bulldogs would be in the same position as Carlton on this trade if not for the premiership), Tom Mitchell (Hawks are in the business of winning, not draft picks, and just wouldn't trade him unless it was ridiculous),
Tier 2 (picks 2 and 3 probably required) --> Oliver, Kelly, Max Gawn, Charlie Curnow (for similar reasons to Cripps), Rance/Martin (Richmond aren't giving up a shot at a flag that easily), Joe Daniher,
Tier 3 (2x top 10 picks required) --> Coniglio, Yeo, Grundy, Sidebottom, McGovern, Cotchin, Ward,
Tier 4 (2x first-rounders or a top 10 + a good second-round) --> Franklin (still), Fyfe, Laird, Brayshaw, Macrae, Wines, O'Meara, Kelly, De Goey, Merrett, Docherty, Harris Andrews, Cameron, Greene, Whitfield, Hogan, Gaff, Darling, Shuey, Tom Lynch, Treloar,
Tier 5 (1x top 10 pick) --> Heeney, Ben Brown, Hipwood, Viney, Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Wingard, Neale, Steven May, Cunnington, Parker,
.

Clarko might need convincing particularly if he's planning on going hard for a flag before giving it away in the new few years but I reckon Hawthorn would do that deal pretty quickly.

They've been talking up the whole 'we win games not drafts' line for a while now because that's what they've been doing, but deep down I think they'd remember the value of really high picks. Trading Croad and McPharlin for pick 1 - Hodge was one of their first moves that led to 4 flags and a draft crop of Franklin/Roughy/Lewis played a huge part in it as well.

 

[master bate]

I'd probably say Bont from De Goey and Charlie Curnow.

They are the kind of players whom if I were offered a pick 5, a pick 10 and another pick 10 I'd probably still say no.

I still believe Bont is the most damaging midfielder in the comp and will get back to that next year. De Goey scares me more than any forward in the comp, he's a risk but maybe one worth taking. Curnow even riskier but it might pay off.

Oliver, Cripps, Heeney, Kelly maybe just a bit below that. You wouldn't swap them for picks 5 and 10 voluntarily, but you'd think about the 5, 10 and 10.

Harris Andrews might be closest. Depends if he can be more damaging with the ball and stronger one on one. Intercept machine but still a long gap to the Rance style impact he'd need to really get there.

Jez Cameron - nope. Joe Daniher - might've been number 1 12 months ago but there's still too much doubt on his injury now, his goal kicking, his confidence.

Tom Mitchell - heck no.

Fyfe and Martin are 27. Freaks, but maybe with only 4 years of prime left. McGovern is a star but he'll be 27 next year, not sure his body holds up forever either. Gawn and Grundy - rucks, no matter how good I'm not selling the farm for.

 

[Ambrosia]

I'd probably say Bont from De Goey and Charlie Curnow.

They are the kind of players whom if I were offered a pick 5, a pick 10 and another pick 10 I'd probably still say no.

I still believe Bont is the most damaging midfielder in the comp and will get back to that next year. De Goey scares me more than any forward in the comp, he's a risk but maybe one worth taking. Curnow even riskier but it might pay off.

Oliver, Cripps, Heeney, Kelly maybe just a bit below that. You wouldn't swap them for picks 5 and 10 voluntarily, but you'd think about the 5, 10 and 10.

Harris Andrews might be closest. Depends if he can be more damaging with the ball and stronger one on one. Intercept machine but still a long gap to the Rance style impact he'd need to really get there.

Jez Cameron - nope. Joe Daniher - might've been number 1 12 months ago but there's still too much doubt on his injury now, his goal kicking, his confidence.

Tom Mitchell - heck no.

Fyfe and Martin are 27. Freaks, but maybe with only 4 years of prime left. McGovern is a star but he'll be 27 next year, not sure his body holds up forever either. Gawn and Grundy - rucks, no matter how good I'm not selling the farm for.

Macrae's another one who fits in that midfield group of Oliver, Cripps ect.

Not sure I'd have Heeney near this discussion. Don't get me wrong the bloke is a freak but I just don't thhink he's quite got enough runs on the board.

 

[Two Planks]

1. C Curnow
2. J Kelly
3. The Bont
4. J Lukoscius

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Macrae's another one who fits in that midfield group of Oliver, Cripps ect.

Not sure I'd have Heeney near this discussion. Don't get me wrong the bloke is a freak but I just don't thhink he's quite got enough runs on the board.

I think Heeney suffers from being a non-victorian, and the Swans careful development. He's definitely in the discussion. Had a much better year than Bontempelli last year.

 

[Ambrosia]

I think Heeney suffers from being a non-victorian, and the Swans careful development. He's definitely in the discussion. Had a much better year than Bontempelli last year.

Happy to be persuaded otherwise. Bont was playing hurt for much of the year.

 

[btdg]

I think Heeney suffers from being a non-victorian, and the Swans careful development. He's definitely in the discussion. Had a much better year than Bontempelli last year.

No he doesn't suffer from being non-Victorian (geez that is a boring fallacy). Sydney are on TV in Melbourne and get just as much press as the Bulldogs do. He also didn't have a much better year than Bontempelli. When you compare their seasons:
- Bontempelli is better for kicks, handballs, goals, disposal effectiveness (marginally), inside 50s, clearances, uncontested possessions, center clearances, score involvements, meters gained, one percenters. He also had more Brownlow votes, had more 'big' games (5 games of 30+ disposals or 4+ goals, vs zero for Heeney)
- Heeney is ahead for tackles, contested marks, intercept marks, and turnovers (fewer)
- They are basically the same for contested possessions, goal assists, rebound 50s, etc.

Does a bit of extra tackle pressure and a slightly stronger aerial presence mean 'a much better season' than someone who was better as a midfielder and as a forward, and who impacted games more?

My knock on Heeney is that he can drift a bit - you can forget he is playing sometimes. He also does a bit of everything, but not necessarily one thing well - which might make him unstoppable one day, or might explain why he drifts a bit depending on game and matchup.

He's a great talent, but a few levels below IMO.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

No he doesn't suffer from being non-Victorian (geez that is a boring fallacy). Sydney are on TV in Melbourne and get just as much press as the Bulldogs do. He also didn't have a much better year than Bontempelli. When you compare their seasons:
- Bontempelli is better for kicks, handballs, goals, disposal effectiveness (marginally), inside 50s, clearances, uncontested possessions, center clearances, score involvements, meters gained, one percenters. He also had more Brownlow votes, had more 'big' games (5 games of 30+ disposals or 4+ goals, vs zero for Heeney)
- Heeney is ahead for tackles, contested marks, intercept marks, and turnovers (fewer)
- They are basically the same for contested possessions, goal assists, rebound 50s, etc.

Does a bit of extra tackle pressure and a slightly stronger aerial presence mean 'a much better season' than someone who was better as a midfielder and as a forward, and who impacted games more?

My knock on Heeney is that he can drift a bit - you can forget he is playing sometimes. He also does a bit of everything, but not necessarily one thing well - which might make him unstoppable one day, or might explain why he drifts a bit depending on game and matchup.

He's a great talent, but a few levels below IMO.

There is a non-Vic factor though. I've watched too many of our guys become stars when they move south.
I always rated Devon Smith and he was always a key player for us. I remember the mocking of that view last off season. Not now he's playing in Victoria.

It's a bit odd and inconsistent though. Guys like Josh Kelly do get picked up, but Zac William's is hugely underrated outside of our club.

I still think Heeney has just been developed carefully by the Swans. Up till now he hasn't really been needed as an inside bull.

Playing forward or across half back particularly he gets noticed less.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I think Heeney suffers from being a non-victorian, and the Swans careful development. He's definitely in the discussion. Had a much better year than Bontempelli last year.

Bont played with injury all year (hip issues, followed by having his appendix out). Appendix surgery kept him out for a fortnight at the back end of the season, and that seemed to be enough rest for his hip to sort itself out.

After he came back, for his last 5 games his performances were:

• 22 disposals, that four goal 3rd quarter, handful of marks and clearances, 2 Brownlow votes
• 35 disposals, 2 goals, 7 inside 50s, 3 Brownlow votes
• 37 disposals, 7 inside 50s, 3 Brownlow votes
• 22 disposals, 8 clearances, 4 inside 50s
• 29 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles

If he was healthy all year, he could have been seriously contending for the Brownlow. Heeney had a great year, but honestly the only reason his season could be considered better (which is debatable) is because Bont played injured for two thirds of the season

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Bont played with injury all year (hip issues, followed by having his appendix out). Appendix surgery kept him out for a fortnight at the back end of the season, and that seemed to be enough rest for his hip to sort itself out.

After he came back, for his last 5 games his performances were:

• 22 disposals, that four goal 3rd quarter, handful of marks and clearances, 2 Brownlow votes
• 35 disposals, 2 goals, 7 inside 50s, 3 Brownlow votes
• 37 disposals, 7 inside 50s, 3 Brownlow votes
• 22 disposals, 8 clearances, 4 inside 50s
• 29 disposals, 7 marks, 8 tackles

If he was healthy all year, he could have been seriously contending for the Brownlow. Heeney had a great year, but honestly the only reason his season could be considered better (which is debatable) is because Bont played injured for two thirds of the season

I certainly dont wish injury upon him, and I get he was hampered.. You cant rate players on what if's though. Otherwise it might be some kid who wasn't drafted because of his body breaking down.

 

[btdg]

There is a non-Vic factor though. I've watched too many of our guys become stars when they move south.
I always rated Devon Smith and he was always a key player for us. I remember the mocking of that view last off season. Not now he's playing in Victoria.

It's a bit odd and inconsistent though. Guys like Josh Kelly do get picked up, but Zac William's is hugely underrated outside of our club.

I still think Heeney has just been developed carefully by the Swans. Up till now he hasn't really been needed as an inside bull.

Playing forward or across half back particularly he gets noticed less.

Every team has guys that are under-rated, and guys that everyone picks up on.

Devon Smith isn't a great example, though. At Essendon, he played a different role, and in particular added some aspects to his game (increasing his tackles from 4.5 = ok to 8.4 = insanely good, for example). Devon Smith at Essendon in 2018 just inarguably played better than Devon Smith at GWS in 2017. As a case in point - Smith had more Brownlow votes in 2018 than he had in his entire time at GWS. That's maybe a reflection of his team-mates and the role he played in both teams, but regardless he was a far more visible player at Essendon

And again, I think most people rate Zac Williams. His profile arguably suffers because:
- he plays off half-back, which is a less sexy position than midfield / KP forward
- GWS have so many big name players in more sexy positions who get the attention in pregame shows, newspaper write-ups, etc.
- his stat numbers are consistently good, but he doesn't rack up cheap touches a lot, and therefore has less fantasy value than some other half-backs (which raises their profile)
- he has never been All-Australian, or in the squad; while he is a great player, he's probably not top 3 or 4 in his posiiton. An entire career of being the 4th best HBF in the league? Almost the definition of a bloke whose supporters think is under-rated.
- he doesn't do a lot of media, doesn't start fights, doesn't have a funny haircut, kick goals from 80 meters, or do much that garners attention other than play solid footy.

But it isn't just a Victorian thing. I watch a fair bit of footy and couldn't name who North's HB flankers are. It's just the nature of the game and the media circus that surrounds it.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I certainly dont wish injury upon him, and I get he was hampered.. You cant rate players on what if's though. Otherwise it might be some kid who wasn't drafted because of his body breaking down.

But I don't believe it's a "what if" - the hype around Bont is based on actual output, not speculation. We have seen what he's like at his best, and he was still among the best players in the competition last year while injured. Once the injury stopped hampering his performance, he was arguably in the best form of any player for the final 5 rounds.

Sure, it's no guarantee he would have been at that level all year without injury, but I think it's enough to tell us that he's a level above Heeney

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Every team has guys that are under-rated, and guys that everyone picks up on.

Devon Smith isn't a great example, though. At Essendon, he played a different role, and in particular added some aspects to his game (increasing his tackles from 4.5 = ok to 8.4 = insanely good, for example). Devon Smith at Essendon in 2018 just inarguably played better than Devon Smith at GWS in 2017. As a case in point - Smith had more Brownlow votes in 2018 than he had in his entire time at GWS. That's maybe a reflection of his team-mates and the role he played in both teams, but regardless he was a far more visible player at Essendon

And again, I think most people rate Zac Williams. His profile arguably suffers because:
- he plays off half-back, which is a less sexy position than midfield / KP forward
- GWS have so many big name players in more sexy positions who get the attention in pregame shows, newspaper write-ups, etc.
- his stat numbers are consistently good, but he doesn't rack up cheap touches a lot, and therefore has less fantasy value than some other half-backs (which raises their profile)
- he has never been All-Australian, or in the squad; while he is a great player, he's probably not top 3 or 4 in his posiiton. An entire career of being the 4th best HBF in the league? Almost the definition of a bloke whose supporters think is under-rated.
- he doesn't do a lot of media, doesn't start fights, doesn't have a funny haircut, kick goals from 80 meters, or do much that garners attention other than play solid footy.

But it isn't just a Victorian thing. I watch a fair bit of footy and couldn't name who North's HB flankers are. It's just the nature of the game and the media circus that surrounds it.

Actually Devon Smith played most if his footy with us an outside mid. To meet team needs he played as a pressure forward almost exclusively in 2017 and somewhat in 2016. That kinda is my point.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Every team has guys that are under-rated, and guys that everyone picks up on.

Devon Smith isn't a great example, though. At Essendon, he played a different role, and in particular added some aspects to his game (increasing his tackles from 4.5 = ok to 8.4 = insanely good, for example). Devon Smith at Essendon in 2018 just inarguably played better than Devon Smith at GWS in 2017. As a case in point - Smith had more Brownlow votes in 2018 than he had in his entire time at GWS. That's maybe a reflection of his team-mates and the role he played in both teams, but regardless he was a far more visible player at Essendon

And again, I think most people rate Zac Williams. His profile arguably suffers because:
- he plays off half-back, which is a less sexy position than midfield / KP forward
- GWS have so many big name players in more sexy positions who get the attention in pregame shows, newspaper write-ups, etc.
- his stat numbers are consistently good, but he doesn't rack up cheap touches a lot, and therefore has less fantasy value than some other half-backs (which raises their profile)
- he has never been All-Australian, or in the squad; while he is a great player, he's probably not top 3 or 4 in his posiiton. An entire career of being the 4th best HBF in the league? Almost the definition of a bloke whose supporters think is under-rated.
- he doesn't do a lot of media, doesn't start fights, doesn't have a funny haircut, kick goals from 80 meters, or do much that garners attention other than play solid footy.

But it isn't just a Victorian thing. I watch a fair bit of footy and couldn't name who North's HB flankers are. It's just the nature of the game and the media circus that surrounds it.

I'll just add I'm oretty sure the same thing as happened with Smith will happen with Shiel next year.
He played as an inside mid predominantly with us for most of his career. He played outside last year, and will suddenly improve next year if the Bombers use him in a hybrid role.

 

[Wild Bill]

Really surprised that people are mentioning Grundy. He is good, but not that good.

Players that come to mind are Cripps, Kelly, Oliver, Bont, Heeney, Curnow, de Goey, Rankine, Mitchell, McGovern, Fyfe Martin.

I’d say Grundy is in the 10-20 group. Not as god as Gawn, but younger.

Rankine? How can you include Rankine who is yet to play a game? He could be a superstar or a bust.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Every team has guys that are under-rated, and guys that everyone picks up on.

Devon Smith isn't a great example, though. At Essendon, he played a different role, and in particular added some aspects to his game (increasing his tackles from 4.5 = ok to 8.4 = insanely good, for example). Devon Smith at Essendon in 2018 just inarguably played better than Devon Smith at GWS in 2017. As a case in point - Smith had more Brownlow votes in 2018 than he had in his entire time at GWS. That's maybe a reflection of his team-mates and the role he played in both teams, but regardless he was a far more visible player at Essendon

And again, I think most people rate Zac Williams. His profile arguably suffers because:
- he plays off half-back, which is a less sexy position than midfield / KP forward
- GWS have so many big name players in more sexy positions who get the attention in pregame shows, newspaper write-ups, etc.
- his stat numbers are consistently good, but he doesn't rack up cheap touches a lot, and therefore has less fantasy value than some other half-backs (which raises their profile)
- he has never been All-Australian, or in the squad; while he is a great player, he's probably not top 3 or 4 in his posiiton. An entire career of being the 4th best HBF in the league? Almost the definition of a bloke whose supporters think is under-rated.
- he doesn't do a lot of media, doesn't start fights, doesn't have a funny haircut, kick goals from 80 meters, or do much that garners attention other than play solid footy.

But it isn't just a Victorian thing. I watch a fair bit of footy and couldn't name who North's HB flankers are. It's just the nature of the game and the media circus that surrounds it.

Definitely not just a Victorian thing, it mostly comes down to which teams are most popular. I can name pretty much the entire Eagles (non-Vic) back line plus their depth, but Geary is probably the only Saints (Vic) defender I can think of off the top of my head. Some sides just aren't as popular, so don't get as much media exposure, which includes GWS. For sides like this, only the top few players will really be well known names, while the rest go "underrated". Basically happens with GWS, Gold Coast, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Saints, North and Western Bulldogs since they are the "smaller" clubs.

 

[Suma Magic]

Rankine? How can you include Rankine who is yet to play a game? He could be a superstar or a bust.

I think he is going to be a superstar. I'd take the punt. I'd have him at the bottom of that list though.

 

[Wild Bill]

I think he is going to be a superstar. I'd take the punt. I'd have him at the bottom of that list though.

He can't be worth more than a lot of the proven players. Would you trade some of your guns that you have not listed for him? Yeo, Shuey, Darling, Gaff?

 

[Suma Magic]

He can't be worth more than a lot of the proven players. Would you trade some of your guns that you have not listed for him? Yeo, Shuey, Darling, Gaff?

I would take him before equivalent players from other clubs.

I've got a man-crush, it's irrational. I just see his highlights and think he could be the best player in the league.

 

[btdg]

I'll just add I'm oretty sure the same thing as happened with Smith will happen with Shiel next year.
He played as an inside mid predominantly with us for most of his career. He played outside last year, and will suddenly improve next year if the Bombers use him in a hybrid role.

But Smith was actually better last year, even accounting for role/opportunity. I saw him plenty in a midfield role at GWS and he was fine - good player. Last year he really added some things (particularly tackling) and went up a notch.

All I was saying is he isn't a great example of Vicbias because I think he was genuinely better after leaving. Playing a different role helped too. But people rated him at GWS.

Shiel is, if anything, over-rated. People on Melbourne have treated him as the messiah, none more than Carlton supporters (and at varying points, Essendon and Hawthorn). Clearly not underrated because he isn't from Vic.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

But Smith was actually better last year, even accounting for role/opportunity. I saw him plenty in a midfield role at GWS and he was fine - good player. Last year he really added some things (particularly tackling) and went up a notch.

All I was saying is he isn't a great example of Vicbias because I think he was genuinely better after leaving. Playing a different role helped too. But people rated him at GWS.

Shiel is, if anything, over-rated. People on Melbourne have treated him as the messiah, none more than Carlton supporters (and at varying points, Essendon and Hawthorn). Clearly not underrated because he isn't from Vic.

I disagree re Smith. He was given a role that allowed the stats. Similar to Treloar who reportedly grew another leg at the Pies. Both were always outstanding players.

I tipped Devon as our first Norm Smith winner in the 2016 l-2017 off season. Somewhat optimistic perhaps but he's always had class, a will for the contest, and great foot skills. I couldn't see him doing well in the Brownlow because of internal competition.

Shiel maybe but I still think my prediction holds for next year. There's some negatively amongst our supporters, mostly around disposal efficiency.

I watch a replay of the EF last week and it was noticeable how much he was dropping back in defence and roosting the ball out of the defensive 50. I think that's somewhat team instructions.

Generally his vision in seeing the game a couple of disposals into the future around the clearances impresses the hell out if me. It doesn't really show in the stats though. He can miss the odd target by foot, but he's by no means bad. A bit like Heater his odd clangers are real noticeable clangers.

I happy for them and others to get the recognition they deserve in any case, but I think we'll have to disagree on the Vic thing.