Opinion Which player has the greatest trade value?

[Dom PC]

Mid: Josh Kelly
Fwd: Charlie Curnow
Def: Harris Andrews
Ruck: Brodie Grundy

 

[Monkey King]

Mid: Josh Kelly
Fwd: Charlie Curnow
Def: Harris Andrews
Ruck: Brodie Grundy

I think you’ve nailed it.

 

[master bate]

Macrae's another one who fits in that midfield group of Oliver, Cripps ect.

Not sure I'd have Heeney near this discussion. Don't get me wrong the bloke is a freak but I just don't thhink he's quite got enough runs on the board.

I'm not a huge Macrae fan. Hard working, tough, super accumulator but doesn't dominate the clearances like Cripps or offer the dynamic play of Oliver. Plus he's a bit older. Kicking is ordinary and his handballs - some of which are throws - aren't all that impressive. He's the type of player who can be shut down with a hard tag and that's not a player you'd sell the farm for.

Heeney is a huge bet on upside, as with De Goey and Curnow but not to the same level of confidence.

I'd love to see him play in an attacking side where he can play forward and go in to the midfield and take the game on. Used too much on the wing, half back and defensively in the midfield for mine. Luke Parker seems to take the role that Heeney would ideally play.

 

[Marcel Proust]

I think you’ve nailed it.

I still think Josh Kellys contract expiring next season lessens the value as opposed to players on long deals. Perhaps other sports have warped my perception; obviously a very high quality footballer

 

[master bate]

I still think Josh Kellys contract expiring next season lessens the value as opposed to players on long deals. Perhaps other sports have warped my perception; obviously a very high quality footballer

Unless you get a player on a long term deal at a cheap price the understanding in any hypothetical trade would be that you pay them and pay them plenty! Cripps and Bont might have just signed new deals but they wouldn't be cheap. You might sign Kelly for 1.5 for 5 years but how much of a discount on that is Cripps and Bont taking these days? I don't think there's the kind of accidental superstar making discount money on a long term deal in the AFL. The elite players are locking in 2-3 year deals until they reach free agency or are traded then signing for a big deal.

In terms of US sports there's the young QB on their rookie contracts who are massively underpaid and there's the occasional basketballer who signs a long term deal before hitting stardom - the best example of late being Steph Curry. I'm not sure that applies here.

 

[Ambrosia]

I'm not a huge Macrae fan. Hard working, tough, super accumulator but doesn't dominate the clearances like Cripps or offer the dynamic play of Oliver. Plus he's a bit older. Kicking is ordinary and his handballs - some of which are throws - aren't all that impressive. He's the type of player who can be shut down with a hard tag and that's not a player you'd sell the farm for.

Must say I disagree completely with all of this. Macrae looked like Pendlebury reincarnate at times this year and has become an excellent user by hand and foot. I don't see why he, one of the top inside ball winners in the comp would struggle with a tag.

Oliver's a freak but his dynamic play is still more theory than reality. At the moment he's an efficient inside ball winner who uses the ball extremely well by hand who has the physical power and kicking ability to make power plays.

Yeah he might be a year older but I doubt that means much in the grand scheme things.

 

[Ambrosia]

I still think Josh Kellys contract expiring next season lessens the value as opposed to players on long deals. Perhaps other sports have warped my perception; obviously a very high quality footballer

I don't think you're applying the OP correctly by looking into contracts. Making it more complicated than intended .

Just all things being equal who is the most valuable player on the trade table in the comp

 

[Northernsoul74]

Must say I disagree completely with all of this. Macrae looked like Pendlebury reincarnate at times this year and has become an excellent user by hand and foot. I don't see why he, one of the top inside ball winners in the comp would struggle with a tag.

Oliver's a freak but his dynamic play is still more theory than reality. At the moment he's an efficient inside ball winner who uses the ball extremely well by hand who has the physical power and kicking ability to make power plays.

Yeah he might be a year older but I doubt that means much in the grand scheme things.

I don’t remember Macrae being tagged out of a game.

 

[Ambrosia]

I don’t remember Macrae being tagged out of a game.

Yeah it seems a weird opinion to have of a bloke who is top 15 clearance player in the league and has show the ability to fill the stat sheet with contested possesions. His game in the wet against Adelaide was unreal with how clean he was.

 

[Moist Biscuit]

Gotta love a 15 year-old bump. Pavlich vs Riewoldt was a good argument to have back then. The people who nominated Joel Smith and Paul Haselby didn't hold up quite so well.

If you are looking at trade value, you have to also look at the worth that players have to their teams.

Kelly might be the best combination of talent and age in the league - about to turn 23 and arguably the best player. However, GWS still have a reasonably well stacked midfield and a bit of scope to deal with player departures.

For that reason, I think Cripps would have the highest trade value in the league. He has a contract through to 2021 at Carlton, is our captain, and I think if he were traded now (hypothetically) absolute hell would break loose. It would almost certainly mean a spill of the board, probably lead to the sacking of the entire recruiting team and probably the coach. Had Gold Coast offered picks 2, 3 and 6 in this year's draft (and Cripps asked to go) I think Carlton would have declined. The tipping point for Cripps might be something like 5x top 10 picks (for Carlton, right now...). I can't really think of a comparison in terms of talent (high), age (still 23) and club circumstance (rock bottom) in recent years.

My hypothetical 'the player wants to go to Gold Coast but is contracted...' trade values would be:

Tier X (basically not available - would cause the club to explode at just about any price) --> Cripps
Tier 1 (picks 2, 3 and 6 probably needed, if the player asked to go) --> Bontempelli (Bulldogs would be in the same position as Carlton on this trade if not for the premiership), Tom Mitchell (Hawks are in the business of winning, not draft picks, and just wouldn't trade him unless it was ridiculous),
Tier 2 (picks 2 and 3 probably required) --> Oliver, Kelly, Max Gawn, Charlie Curnow (for similar reasons to Cripps), Rance/Martin (Richmond aren't giving up a shot at a flag that easily), Joe Daniher,
Tier 3 (2x top 10 picks required) --> Coniglio, Yeo, Grundy, Sidebottom, McGovern, Cotchin, Ward,
Tier 4 (2x first-rounders or a top 10 + a good second-round) --> Franklin (still), Fyfe, Laird, Brayshaw, Macrae, Wines, O'Meara, Kelly, De Goey, Merrett, Docherty, Harris Andrews, Cameron, Greene, Whitfield, Hogan, Gaff, Darling, Shuey, Tom Lynch, Treloar,
Tier 5 (1x top 10 pick) --> Heeney, Ben Brown, Hipwood, Viney, Dangerfield, Tim Kelly, Wingard, Neale, Steven May, Cunnington, Parker,

I'm sure I've missed a bunch of players there, that's not meant to be an exhaustive list. It's also not meant to be a talent list - it's an estimation of trade value only. I've also deliberately excluded guys from the last couple of drafts - its just really hard to appraise players like Raynor, Stephenson, etc, who would deserve to be there somewhere.

It also felt slightly harsh on St Kilda - but I honestly don't think any player gets a top 10 pick. Maybe Seb Ross? They would have a heap in the 'late first round category' though. Same with North - very deep and even team.

I don't care how good Cripps is, nobody is worth that much in a trade.

 

[Infamy]

I don't think you're applying the OP correctly by looking into contracts. Making it more complicated than intended .

Just all things being equal who is the most valuable player on the trade table in the comp

He's 100% correct by taking contracts into account
It takes a lot more to pry a player out of a club who has a long term contract compared to a player who doesn't have long left
Just like all the big transfer fees in soccer get paid due to longer term contracts in place

 

[Bulldog1954]

I'm not a huge Macrae fan. Hard working, tough, super accumulator but doesn't dominate the clearances like Cripps or offer the dynamic play of Oliver. Plus he's a bit older. Kicking is ordinary and his handballs - some of which are throws - aren't all that impressive. He's the type of player who can be shut down with a hard tag and that's not a player you'd sell the farm for.

Any examples of when he has been shut down by a hard tag?

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Any examples of when he has been shut down by a hard tag?

Fair call

I cant imagine any club putting in the effort to apply a hard tag. If you were that way inclined I'd pressure Bontempelli first. Plssibly Daniels because he has vision and sets up the play a lot when in form. Then probably Johanissen because he can be damaging outside in space but cant handle attention.

 

[Virgin Dog]

Fair call

I cant imagine any club putting in the effort to apply a hard tag. If you were that way inclined I'd pressure Bontempelli first. Plssibly Daniels because he has vision and sets up the play a lot when in form. Then probably Johanissen because he can be damaging outside in space but cant handle attention.

Before his injury, Macrae was one of the favourites for the Brownlow, and was easily best on ground for the dogs in most games. If clubs could tag him, he'd have been tagged. Big bodied mids like him and Bont are very difficult to tag, which is why clubs will elect to go for the next best option - JJ

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Before his injury, Macrae was one of the favourites for the Brownlow, and was easily best on ground for the dogs in most games. If clubs could tag him, he'd have been tagged. Big bodied mids like him and Bont are very difficult to tag, which is why clubs will elect to go for the next best option - JJ

I still dont think he's effective enough to even try.

 

[Virgin Dog]

I still dont think he's effective enough to even try.

I really don't get why you'd think that. Is this like the "Mitchell has no impact" meme?

 

[Marc_Remillard]

Really surprised that people are mentioning Grundy. He is good, but not that good.

Players that come to mind are Cripps, Kelly, Oliver, Bont, Heeney, Curnow, de Goey, Rankine, Mitchell, McGovern, Fyfe Martin.

I’d say Grundy is in the 10-20 group. Not as god as Gawn, but younger.

Yes, Gawn is god-like

 

[Ambrosia]

Really surprised that people are mentioning Grundy. He is good, but not that good.

Players that come to mind are Cripps, Kelly, Oliver, Bont, Heeney, Curnow, de Goey, Rankine, Mitchell, McGovern, Fyfe Martin.

I’d say Grundy is in the 10-20 group. Not as god as Gawn, but younger.

There's also a limit to how much impact a ruckman can have on a game. Grundy was excellent in the grand final and won the HO comfortably but WCE had no trouble countering his influence.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

There's also a limit to how much impact a ruckman can have on a game. Grundy was excellent in the grand final and won the HO comfortably but WCE had no trouble countering his influence.

I wouldn't say they had no trouble. Lycett and Vardy worked him over no doubt. I'd say they invested a lot and worked very hard to achieve it though.

 

[danster168]

Def: Jake Lever
Mid: Cripps
Fwd: DeGoey
Rucks: Grundy

I think people are forgetting how much of a gun Lever is. I would've loved to be biased and put Oliver in the mids but I think Cripps by a whisker. DeGoey is the best of the lot though as he is a match winner and has the best skills in the afl around goals.

 

[jackenny]

I really don't get why you'd think that. Is this like the "Mitchell has no impact" meme?

His tendency to throw the ball is pretty bad, honestly. In comparison, Oliver is one of the best users of the ball by hand I have seen, I would say the best user currently playing (he's been at this elite level since his second year of 2017, and was stiff to miss out on All-Australian selection). Basically, Oliver is the best-performed young player since Chris Judd hit the scene, while in comparison Macrae's only claim to fame is a purple patch for the first half of the 2018 season - before that, Macrae got the ball heaps and butchered it horribly. As for Patrick Cripps, the guy would've won the brownlow this year if he played for a better team (seriously, 20 votes in a team that's won 2 games for the whole year, that's telling). He was a monster in 2018.

Mind you, Macrae is still elite. But a 24 year old finding elite form isn't that noteworthy. For instance, I would have Bontempelli ahead of Macrae, because he is 1) marginally younger and 2) has a greater body of work in my opinion. And this is ultimately asking which player has the greatest trade value, and in that sense, it's not Macrae, he's nowhere near it.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Def: Jake Lever
Mid: Cripps
Fwd: DeGoey
Rucks: Grundy

I think people are forgetting how much of a gun Lever is. I would've loved to be biased and put Oliver in the mids but I think Cripps by a whisker. DeGoey is the best of the lot though as he is a match winner and has the best skills in the afl around goals.

Much as I dont want to promote trade talk, Lever over Haynes is silly. Haynes is a better intercept mark when he can play loose. He can take a man when required, as well as providing the outnumber with a fist when necessary.
He very good at ground level rounding up loose balls in a dangerous position.
Lever is good but not at that level. Neither are close to Jeremy McGoverns value anyway.

 

[Virgin Dog]

His tendency to throw the ball is pretty bad, honestly. In comparison, Oliver is one of the best users of the ball by hand I have seen, I would say the best user currently playing (he's been at this elite level since his second year of 2017, and was stiff to miss out on All-Australian selection). Basically, Oliver is the best-performed young player since Chris Judd hit the scene, while in comparison Macrae's only claim to fame is a purple patch for the first half of the 2018 season - before that, Macrae got the ball heaps and butchered it horribly. As for Patrick Cripps, the guy would've won the brownlow this year if he played for a better team (seriously, 20 votes in a team that's won 2 games for the whole year, that's telling). He was a monster in 2018.

Mind you, Macrae is still elite. But a 24 year old finding elite form isn't that noteworthy. For instance, I would have Bontempelli ahead of Macrae, because he is 1) marginally younger and 2) has a greater body of work in my opinion. And this is ultimately asking which player has the greatest trade value, and in that sense, it's not Macrae, he's nowhere near it.

He averages less than a single free kick against per game, which tells me he really doesn't "throw" as often as you imply.

Also I'm thinking you may have missed the context of the discussion. My comment was replying to a comment that teams basically don't bother tagging Macrae as he doesn't have enough impact, while I had been arguing that he does, in fact, have a lot of impact, it's just that bigger bodied midfielders are harder to tag out of a game, so him and Bont generally don't cop a tag (usually get a run-with player instead), and instead someone like JJ might be a target since he's easier to tag out.

I'm not arguing that Macrae has the highest trade value. Bontempelli is easily worth more. Bringing up Oliver and Cripps (who, funnily enough, are also difficult to tag out of a game since they are bigger bodied mids) is not really relevant to what I was saying

 

[master bate]

Any examples of when he has been shut down by a hard tag?

23 touches and dominating the clearances to half time against Melbourne at the G this year, 10 touches and little impact when Harmes went to him after half time.

 

[jackenny]

He averages less than a single free kick against per game, which tells me he really doesn't "throw" as often as you imply.

Also I'm thinking you may have missed the context of the discussion. My comment was replying to a comment that teams basically don't bother tagging Macrae as he doesn't have enough impact, while I had been arguing that he does, in fact, have a lot of impact, it's just that bigger bodied midfielders are harder to tag out of a game, so him and Bont generally don't cop a tag (usually get a run-with player instead), and instead someone like JJ might be a target since he's easier to tag out.

I'm not arguing that Macrae has the highest trade value. Bontempelli is easily worth more. Bringing up Oliver and Cripps (who, funnily enough, are also difficult to tag out of a game since they are bigger bodied mids) is not really relevant to what I was saying

Not really, I'm just bringing it back to what the discussion is really about.

And yeah, he throws. He isn't the only offender to be fair, though. Mitchell is guilty of it, too. The umpires were universally slack calling for it this year (so I really don't take much stock in your cited statistic, considering I've seen him throw with my own eyes - despite it not being called, other times it definitely has).