Preview The Home Ground Factor in Finals is hugely overrated

Jun 4, 2005
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Yep, beat us in semi final at Waverley Park in 1982. We came back and beat them in the grand final at the G two weeks later when the Dominator has served his 2 week suspension after missing the middle finals of the series.
And apart from 17-18, the Tigers were never anything special at the G.

Their record at Etihad from 2010 to 2016 was 45% wins, at the G it was 47%...such a huge MCG advantage.

Unsurprisingly the Tigers had a better record at Punt Road compared to the G, same with Carlton at PP, Pies at VicPark and Essendon at WindyHill as the clubs actually had a home ground advantage at their traditional homes...despite no travel, or sleeping in hotels.

But Richmond has a better record both in home and away, and finals at Waverley compared to the G.
 
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And apart from 17-18, the Tigers were never anything special at the G.

Their record at Etihad from 2010 to 2016 was 45% wins, at the G it was 47%...such a huge MCG advantage.

Unsurprisingly the Tigers had a better record at Punt Road compared to the G, same with Carlton at PP, Pies at VicPark and Essendon at WindyHill as the clubs actually had a home ground advantage at their traditional homes...despite no travel, or sleeping in hotels.

But Richmond has a better record both in home and away, and finals at Waverley compared to the G.

No surprises to any one that followed the game long enough to see the ups and downs of form.
Only the johhny come latelies that only used to protection of home ground to win most of their finals and want a grand final in their protection area , do not get it.
 

PerthBoy86

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You would expect the data to show home ground advantage for weeks 1-3 finals because the home team is generally higher on the ladder and therefore a better team and also gets a huge crowd advantage. And that's what the data does in fact show.

But for the GF the advantage is greatly diminished because you have the 2 best teams and the huge crowd advantage removed. And that's what the data shows, it's 8 wins a piece for Vic vs Interstate GFs.

Yeah GF are definitely more equal, but I still think MCG tenants - Collingwood, Richmond, Hawthorn, have an advantage due to the ground, but still less so than a normal home and away game.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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I know, imagine the top team playing at home more than than the bottom team .

Just stupid :)
Yeah let’s play an 82 game H&A season, and then four best of 7 finals series to ensure there is no chance of an upset.

The best games in the NBA playoffs are game 7s, as they are win or go home...that is all they really should play.

That is why the NCAA march madness is a much more popular event in the States, a series of individual knock-out games where a 1 seed can have a bad day and be upset by 16 seed...obviously the 1 normally wins, but having higher seeds not get 7 games to eventually progress gives the underdog a chance.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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Exactly. play on the best football ground for the game and bigger crowds, imagine being dumb enough to abandon that for stupid basketball system. We are better than that, one would always hope.
All football leagues that I am aware of play the GF at the best venue available to that league, whether it be AFL, SANFL, VFL or EFL u15s they are played at venues dictated by the league.

It is only because a few Perth people get shafted with expensive flights that they are upset...they are the upset regional family who just have to travel further to attend any events that always are organised to benefit the majority
 
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All football leagues that I am aware of play the GF at the best venue available to that league, whether it be AFL, SANFL, VFL or EFL u15s they are played at venues dictated by the league.

It is only because a few Perth people get shafted with expensive flights that they are upset...they are the upset regional family who just have to travel further to attend any events that always are organised to benefit the majority


Yep, in my league I played the finals were played at best venue for league as a whole. Pretty much the standard policy for all our footy leagues across the nation.
 
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Yep, in my league I played the finals were played at best venue for league as a whole. Pretty much the standard policy for all our footy leagues across the nation.
And remains the policy in AFL and all leagues.

A couple of salty WA fans who can no longer walk to the GF of the competition they follow are now upset.

They have joined a competition where 16 of the competitions teams are on the other side of the Nullarbor, so now want the GF changed to make it easier for them to get to the game.
 
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Yeah let’s play an 82 game H&A season, and then four best of 7 finals series to ensure there is no chance of an upset.

The best games in the NBA playoffs are game 7s, as they are win or go home...that is all they really should play.

That is why the NCAA march madness is a much more popular event in the States, a series of individual knock-out games where a 1 seed can have a bad day and be upset by 16 seed...obviously the 1 normally wins, but having higher seeds not get 7 games to eventually progress gives the underdog a chance.
Or just play at the top team home ground.
 
Stats were listed on bf a while ago on home finals that show a clear advantage to the home team in finals.


In other news :


https://www.theage.com.au/sport/afl/some-home-truths-about-football-finals-20180616-p4zlx4.html
I don’t understand the whining about the MCG advantage in the Brisbane years. In 2001 and 2003 their opponents were the higher qualifying sides anyway. Arguing “but look at the names, vastly superior etc etc” actually undermines the fact that Essendon and Collingwood outperformed Brisbane on the home and away rounds those years anyway. Ironically it was 2002 that had the closest result and the most enthralling game
 
Is there even a single team with a better away finals record?

Maybe sydney?

When you look at the numbers it really puts the dogs flag in perspective.
Might have missed some games but Collingwood have one:

1994 v West Coast -2 @ WACA
2002 v Port Adelaide +13 AAMI
2007 v West Coast +19 Subiaco
2008 v Adelaide +31 AAMI
2012 v Sydney -26 ANZ Stadium

60% away record.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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Might have missed some games but Collingwood have one:

1994 v West Coast -2 @ WACA
2002 v Port Adelaide +13 AAMI
2007 v West Coast +19 Subiaco
2008 v Adelaide +31 AAMI
2012 v Sydney -26 ANZ Stadium

60% away record.
Yep, Pies are 60% in finals outside vic and just 45% at finals at the G.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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3 games gf series equals bigger crowds.

Someone outside Melbourne may see the game as well .
The AFL just removed the possibility of a drawn GF and replay.

None of the key stakeholders want more games, they want every game to actually mean something.

When the league is talking about reducing the amount of games played, and shortening the length of games...leave it to some Perth wowsers to want playoff series just so they can avoid a flight.
 

Topkent

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* there are some stupid campaigners in this thread
There are home ground advantages in most sports due to the crowds either influencing umpiring decisions of effecting the confidence of the away side.

There's no advantage in knowing the ******* conditions at the MCG. What conditions? You get the ball and you kick it inside 50. You think Jeremy McGovern doesn't know where to stand because the grounds 4 metres wider? What a load of horseshit. It's because at one ground He has 50k supporters screaming for him while in Melbourne he has 50.

On GF day that advantage is gone. Both sides have equal ticket numbers plus about 40k neutral who cheer good footy. There's no advantage.
 

Roblo

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I was talking statistically. You were using the 11/50. I am using the 8/16.
Surely when comparing the number of non Victorian teams that have won a grand final to Victorian teams that have won a grand final, you can't use games where there were two Victoria teams or two non Victorian teams playing each other . In each case there would be no home ground advantage. If you look at this number over the last 16 games, 3 out of 9 grand finals were won by non Victorian teams over the home team. This would suggest that there is a home ground advantage on grand final day
 
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