Preview Pick 6, 2019 Draft: Who Do AFC Target?

[Jeffcrowe]

I’m all for being optimistic about potential outcomes, but I think you guys are tempting fate big time, putting forward trades involving pick one and assuming that having pick 1 is a done deal.
That’s like a gambler thinking about all the awesome stuff they’re going to buy with there winnings, before they’ve actually won the money.
You guys could easily have a bad year next year, with some injuries and form dropping off due players aging, plus the lose of Mcgoven, who IMO was one of you’re most important forwards and the player the new rule changes would benefit the most.
There’s also the added pressure this trade brings, if you guys get off to a slow start it could get pretty savage over there very quickly.

After watching your recruiting teams video I’m even more confident of the trade from our perspective

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Ah another win/loss analyst

You do realize that draftees dont start to hit their peak until at least 23-24?

Or did GWS make finals after 3-4 drafts?

Oh, so you guys are going to be awesome next year, but it won’t be measured by your win loss ratio!

Now I get your hubris.

 

[Arr0w]

Oh, so you guys are going to be awesome next year, but it won’t be measured by your win loss ratio!

Now I get your hubris.

Now when did I say that?

But thinking we will only win 2 games again, would be like me saying you will miss finals again

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Now when did I say that?

But thinking we will only win 2 games again, would be like me saying you will miss finals again

You’ll win more than 2.

But the last spoon that you won, you had won a whopping 4 matches and added a additional 3 games taking you up to 14 the following year.
Considering that you were a stronger then, I would think that expectations that you would win enough games to improve beyond bottom 3 are based in hope not reason.

 

[Sanders]

Perhaps I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure a player taken in the first round is tied to that club for 2 years

Ha ha ha

 

[Sanders]

Not going to bother to explain what relevance points have ,by your comments you seem to ignorant to understand.
As far as being a joke well let’s see
- from GF to missing the 8
- preseason camps
- power ranger stances
- Pykes 3/4 time addresses
- Humiliation in a Grand final
Sure I’ve missed plenty

Ha ha ha

 

[Sanders]

Adelaide 10- 12 wins
Carlton 6 -8 wins
Best scenario for Crows 6 place upgrade on first pick
Worst case scenario 2 game upgrade on first pick
That’s very realistic so don’t get too cocky

I was unconvinced until you said that what you said was realistic

With that magic command, abracadabra, moronic drivel is transformed into intelligent insight

Wait wot, that’s not how it works you say...?

 

[Sanders]

Still believe you’re wrong...first round draft picks cannot be traded for 2 years

Ha ha ha

 

[passmark]

I think all this argy bargy on who will win this trade is pretty pointless and it's just the usual fare gobbled up by us nuffies on here.

I've no doubt the clubs take a far more strategic view on what the trade / draft period achieved.

It was a sound trade from Carltons perspective. You couldn't afford just 1 pick in this draft, but you've kept pick 1, kept a 1st for next year and got yourselves back into the 2018 draft and got a player you wanted. Tick.

We went to the draft with 4 good picks which we converted into 3 players we wanted + we've carried over your 2019 1st and 2nd (via GWS). Tick

If your 1st next year turns out to be just a 2-3 pick upgrade, big deal. The night as a whole will be measured as that upgrade + your 2nd for the cost of a late 1st that we didn't want to otherwise spend. If Duursma was there we know we'd have taken him and not traded.

By securing your 2019 2nd we will have effectively reimbursed ourselves for the lost pick that costs the crack at an upgrade anyway, so we don't lose for the cost of rolling the dice.

It was a good trade for both clubs. Funnily enough I imagine that's why they did it.

Well reasoned and rational post.

It has no place on BF!

 

[Arr0w]

You’ll win more than 2.

But the last spoon that you won, you had won a whopping 4 matches and added a additional 3 games taking you up to 14 the following year.
Considering that you were a stronger then, I would think that expectations that you would win enough games to improve beyond bottom 3 are based in hope not reason.

Again you use the same flawed analysis as a forecast/reason of finishing positions. I could do exactly the same

• In the last 8 years, when the Crows have missed the finals, they have replicated the result the following year. The finishing position will not improve substantially, to regain a top 8 position, as you have lost, Lever, Cameron, McGovern, who would be considered best 22, while only gaining Gibbs

Do you see how flawed that could be? No mention of other external factors, such as development, injuries etc?

Perhaps your analyzing criteria, also predicted the following:

• Pies making a GF after finishing 13th, 12th, 12th, 11th
• WC making the top 8, or even top 4, winning the GF
• Saints finishing 16th after being on the verge of finals, the previous 2 years
• Essendon playing finals because of finishing 7th the year before, while adding 3 best 22 in Stringer, Smith, Saad

And so on and so on

I have stated elsewhere that I believe the Crows finishing position will be in the range of 3-8, while we will be bottom 6, tell me where you see hope in those prediction?

If you think I am guided by hope, perhaps you should re-read this thread title and your own contributions

 

[Donkey Magoo]

Again you use the same flawed analysis as a forecast/reason of finishing positions. I could do exactly the same

• In the last 8 years, when the Crows have missed the finals, they have replicated the result the following year. The finishing position will not improve substantially, to regain a top 8 position, as you have lost, Lever, Cameron, McGovern, who would be considered best 22, while only gaining Gibbs

Do you see how flawed that could be? No mention of other external factors, such as development, injuries etc?

Perhaps your analyzing criteria, also predicted the following:

• Pies making a GF after finishing 13th, 12th, 12th, 11th
• WC making the top 8, or even top 4, winning the GF
• Saints finishing 16th after being on the verge of finals, the previous 2 years
• Essendon playing finals because of finishing 7th the year before, while adding 3 best 22 in Stringer, Smith, Saad

And so on and so on

I have stated elsewhere that I believe the Crows finishing position will be in the range of 3-8, while we will be bottom 6, tell me where you see hope in those prediction?

If you think I am guided by hope, perhaps you should re-read this thread title and your own contributions

Cool story bro.

 

[azza77]

Now when did I say that?

But thinking we will only win 2 games again, would be like me saying you will miss finals again

Yeah I have you winning 5 games, and that was tying to be generous and not put my goggles on just cos we have your picks.

Those 5 wins had you finishing in a whopping 17th spot unfortunately.

I just can't see you finishing above the likes of Brisbane/Freo/Dogs, not this year at least.

 

[Arr0w]

Cool story bro.

That was an in-depth response

Yeah I have you winning 5 games, and that was tying to be generous and not put my goggles on just cos we have your picks.

Those 5 wins had you finishing in a whopping 17th spot unfortunately.

I just can't see you finishing above the likes of Brisbane/Freo/Dogs, not this year at least.

It will be interesting come year's end

 

[GrommoT]

Looks like we have an infestation of sosages...

 

[hippyhippy]

Gc is golden for the spoon... Next should be either carlton or saints... I think the saints list is worst. . So gonna put them 2nd spooners... Port smokey for 3rd imho... Then Carlton.. So who's looking like a star for pick 4?

 

[Donkey Magoo]

That was an in-depth response

Well first of all, whatever any of us think is irrelevant. The performance will dictate.

Secondly, I'm using win-loss season to season as an indicator. Saints finished last in '14 with 4 wins and added 2 the next year to finish 14th, you won your 4th spoon in '15 on 4 wins and added 3 wins to finish 14, '16 Essendon finished last in their banned year, Brissy are more relevant with 3 wins increasing by 2 the next year to win the spoon and you guys won the spoon this year.
This year was the worst result by an established club in a decade, Only GWS in 13 were worse.
The best recovery by any side after the spoon has been 3 wins.
I don't see where your list has improved to the level that it will exceed that.
McGovern is a good get. Walsh is a rookie, so is Stocker, Setterfield is still potential- Shiel would have been better. If you had gotten Shiel then I would entertain discussion of dramatic improvement.
Curnow is overrated by the Vic media, he does remind me of Kouta, but couta while flashy wasn't Mr Reliable, Cripps is a blue chip star. Murphy, Simpson and Kruezer are old and will become less reliable and Docherty is a gunn but will be coming back of a restricted preseason and a knee reco.

 

[Arr0w]

Well first of all, whatever any of us think is irrelevant. The performance will dictate.

Secondly, I'm using win-loss season to season as an indicator. Saints finished last in '14 with 4 wins and added 2 the next year to finish 14th, you won your 4th spoon in '15 on 4 wins and added 3 wins to finish 14, '16 Essendon finished last in their banned year, Brissy are more relevant with 3 wins increasing by 2 the next year to win the spoon and you guys won the spoon this year.
This year was the worst result by an established club in a decade, Only GWS in 13 were worse.
The best recovery by any side after the spoon has been 3 wins.
I don't see where your list has improved to the level that it will exceed that.
McGovern is a good get. Walsh is a rookie, so is Stocker, Setterfield is still potential- Shiel would have been better. If you had gotten Shiel then I would entertain discussion of dramatic improvement.
Curnow is overrated by the Vic media, he does remind me of Kouta, but couta while flashy wasn't Mr Reliable, Cripps is a blue chip star. Murphy, Simpson and Kruezer are old and will become less reliable and Docherty is a gunn but will be coming back of a restricted preseason and a knee reco.

See you are so far detached from reality. Case in point, Doc was ready to go round 19, but the decision was made to not risk him. He started a full preseason without restrictions. I won't get into a debate regarding other players or development, due to being purely opinion based.

When analyzing data, best you use all information rather than cherry picking to form a selective view/outcome

Perhaps adding the Demons, who finished 17th in 2013 (2 wins) & 14 (4 wins) 6 wins combined, yet finished 13th in 2015 ( 7 wins), would give more weight to your argument.

Happy to review how both of our sides finish, come the end of the year

 

[70lethal]

Again you use the same flawed analysis as a forecast/reason of finishing positions. I could do exactly the same

• In the last 8 years, when the Crows have missed the finals, they have replicated the result the following year. The finishing position will not improve substantially, to regain a top 8 position, as you have lost, Lever, Cameron, McGovern, who would be considered best 22, while only gaining Gibbs

Do you see how flawed that could be? No mention of other external factors, such as development, injuries etc?

Perhaps your analyzing criteria, also predicted the following:

• Pies making a GF after finishing 13th, 12th, 12th, 11th
• WC making the top 8, or even top 4, winning the GF
• Saints finishing 16th after being on the verge of finals, the previous 2 years
• Essendon playing finals because of finishing 7th the year before, while adding 3 best 22 in Stringer, Smith, Saad

And so on and so on

I have stated elsewhere that I believe the Crows finishing position will be in the range of 3-8, while we will be bottom 6, tell me where you see hope in those prediction?

If you think I am guided by hope, perhaps you should re-read this thread title and your own contributions

Carlton are so crap they cant even update there B&F winners since 2016 on their website.
http://www.carltonfc.com.au/club/history/best-and-fairest-winners

Heres the fact we had a CEO who was crap and oversaw a serious drought. Never played in a GF during his time.
We pissed him off and got a new coach and went from 10th to 7th, 5th, GF. We hired a tosser last year who killed our list with injuries and camp.
Hopefully the tosser has been smacked around the ears real hard. They have bought in an expert to minimise his damage.

The crap CEO we had happen to go to Carlton and you went from 6th to 13th, 18th, 14th, 16th then you got rid of him but kept the duds Bolton and SOS and ended up 18th again.
Your list has virtually no experience except for a 35y.o. and a few 32 y.o.
Your next group age wise includes Lobbe, Jones, Casboult, Phillips, Fasolo, Newman, Bugg, Kreuzer and Curnow. This is your achilles heal.
You got 4 guys that can play between 50-100 games experience which one Bolton is ruining, ones coming back from a knee reco
You have a shallow midfield super inexperienced forward line and defence and expecting a bunch of kids to go to war with season warriors good luck.
15 guys on your list played over 50 games is not a recipe for success especially when half of them are spuds.

Your dreaming if your thinking you can get as high as 13th.
Spuds like Kerridge, Mullet, Lamb average more disposals than most of your top end talent.

You lost your most consistent goal kicker in Wright.

 

[Arr0w]

Carlton are so crap they cant even update there B&F winners since 2016 on their website.
http://www.carltonfc.com.au/club/history/best-and-fairest-winners

Heres the fact we had a CEO who was crap and oversaw a serious drought. Never played in a GF during his time.
We pissed him off and got a new coach and went from 10th to 7th, 5th, GF. We hired a tosser last year who killed our list with injuries and camp.
Hopefully the tosser has been smacked around the ears real hard. They have bought in an expert to minimise his damage.

The crap CEO we had happen to go to Carlton and you went from 6th to 13th, 18th, 14th, 16th then you got rid of him but kept the duds Bolton and SOS and ended up 18th again.
Your list has virtually no experience except for a 35y.o. and a few 32 y.o.
Your next group age wise includes Lobbe, Jones, Casboult, Phillips, Fasolo, Newman, Bugg, Kreuzer and Curnow. This is your achilles heal.
You got 4 guys that can play between 50-100 games experience which one Bolton is ruining, ones coming back from a knee reco
You have a shallow midfield super inexperienced forward line and defence and expecting a bunch of kids to go to war with season warriors good luck.
15 guys on your list played over 50 games is not a recipe for success especially when half of them are spuds.

Your dreaming if your thinking you can get as high as 13th.
Spuds like Kerridge, Mullet, Lamb average more disposals than most of your top end talent.

You lost your most consistent goal kicker in Wright.

Yes, our media guys are poor at times, so not surprised that the B&F on the website hasn't been updated, but then again that has nothing to do with the performance of the football department

Pointless me having a debate with you, regarding the inner sanctum of your club, as I am detached, but hopefully your supporters are more satisfied with the changes that have been made, if any have.

All sides have Achilles heal type players, certainly noticeable by the views of your own supporters, regarding the likes of McKay and Douglas. Surely Doc would be similar to Smith, coming back from a knee? Interesting that you alluded to our spuds, Kerridge, Mullet Lamb, as they were all delisted, perhaps do a little more research next time.

Yes the majority of our group is inexperienced, compared to the top sides, perhaps compare our group to other sides that finished in the bottom 6, rather than the rest of the competition? Sides like Saints and Lions, that started their rebuild 2 years earlier, yet are still sitting bottom 4

Never once said we will finish 13th, or any other spot, so perhaps review my post and it's context. All I have said, is that we will finish bottom 6

 

[azza77]

That was an in-depth response



It will be interesting come year's end

Saints are one team that could go either way, but I could possibly see Carlton finishing above them. Their draw really isn't that great for a team that finished so low.

Freo I am also wary of, yes they've improved their tall stocks 10 fold, but a midfield consisting of Fyfe, an inconsistent Brad hill, an aging Mundy and Sandi, plus a forever injured Stephen Hill, has the potential to implode on itself.

Best case scenario I think is you finish 15th, meaning you've given up pick 4 for Stocker + 14-18ish.

Use my spreadsheet that I uploaded above and tell me where you think you'll finish in the scheme of things. I'm genuinely interested to know where one of the more level headed blues supporters think their team will finish.

I just dont see how Cripps + an aging Murphy + a bunch of highly touted 1-2 year juniors are going to make a surge up the ladder in 2019 (despite you're strong KPPs). 2020? Yeah maybe I could see them making more of a case.

 

[Arr0w]

Saints are one team that could go either way, but I could possibly see Carlton finishing above them. Their draw really isn't that great for a team that finished so low.

Freo I am also wary of, yes they've improved their tall stocks 10 fold, but a midfield consisting of Fyfe, an inconsistent Brad hill, an aging Mundy and Sandi, plus a forever injured Stephen Hill, has the potential to implode on itself.

Best case scenario I think is you finish 15th, meaning you've given up pick 4 for Stocker + 14-18ish.

Use my spreadsheet that I uploaded above and tell me where you think you'll finish in the scheme of things. I'm genuinely interested to know where one of the more level headed blues supporters think their team will finish.

I just dont see how Cripps + an aging Murphy + a bunch of highly touted 1-2 year juniors are going to make a surge up the ladder in 2019 (despite you're strong KPPs). 2020? Yeah maybe I could see them making more of a case.

I think the bottom 6 of last year, will again fight out the bottom 6 spots, with possibly North being part of that group (had a blessed run of injuries, especially 1st half of the season). As much as people like to predict finishing positions, I have yet to see anyone nail a ladder predictor, with most sides floating between at least 2-3 spots. Like any side, competing within their division, so to speak, injuries play the number 1 role, as you witnessed with your team.

If things go pear-shaped again for us, then bottom 3 is on the cards, if we stay healthy and sides around us experience problems, then we could climb out of the bottom 4. It would take a miracle for us to finish outside the bottom 6

As for suggesting Crows finish top 4, similar scenarios apply, yet, I think it is a safe bet to suggest you will finish in the 3-8 range

 

[Vader]

Fair bet that Gold Coast will win the spoon next year. Carlton & St Kilda to finish 16th & 17th, 50/50 as to which way round. Worst case scenario, we're looking at pick #3.

 

[Shaz2012]

If Rankine and/or Luko are confirmed as getable in 2020 and we have pick 1 in 2019, I’d be looking to split pick 1 for a first and a future first with a club in the bottom 6 or 7. Actually Port would be ideal as it takes them out of play, so Gold Coast can only deal with us.

Take a top 6 pick at the draft next year and have two 2020 firsts (including likely a top 6 pick) and our 2021 first to bring back Luko and/or Rankine.

 

[70lethal]

Yes, our media guys are poor at times, so not surprised that the B&F on the website hasn't been updated, but then again that has nothing to do with the performance of the football department

Pointless me having a debate with you, regarding the inner sanctum of your club, as I am detached, but hopefully your supporters are more satisfied with the changes that have been made, if any have.

All sides have Achilles heal type players, certainly noticeable by the views of your own supporters, regarding the likes of McKay and Douglas. Surely Doc would be similar to Smith, coming back from a knee? Interesting that you alluded to our spuds, Kerridge, Mullet Lamb, as they were all delisted, perhaps do a little more research next time.

Yes the majority of our group is inexperienced, compared to the top sides, perhaps compare our group to other sides that finished in the bottom 6, rather than the rest of the competition? Sides like Saints and Lions, that started their rebuild 2 years earlier, yet are still sitting bottom 4

Never once said we will finish 13th, or any other spot, so perhaps review my post and it's context. All I have said, is that we will finish bottom 6

Bottom 6 means 13 to 18. So yes thats overly optimistic. Rational would be bottom 3

I mentioned Kerridge Mullet lamb as spuds because you did delist them but they rank higher on disposals than most of your high end young talent. So that infers your high end young talent isnt that high and therefore little to no uplift.

Carlton have a history of getting rid of talent and keeping spuds and its possible you have kept worse players than u have delisted.
How many leading goal kickers have you kept over the past 10 years? Fevola, Betts, Garlett, Waite traded, Everitt and Wright delisted.
2016 leading goal kickers in order, Wright, Casboult, Gibbs, Everitt, Armfield, Lamb. 5 of your 6 leading goal kickers gone from 2 years ago
This is why you wont move.
Even if Curnow, McGovern and McKay have break out years and kick 40 goals each your going to struggle to kick 10 goals a game.

Compare your list to saints who have 22 players over 50 games and Brisbane 19 and 8 guys been 20-50 games.
Suns are comparable with Carlton but they even have more experience

 

[Arr0w]

Bottom 6 means 13 to 18. So yes thats overly optimistic. Rational would be bottom 3

I mentioned Kerridge Mullet lamb as spuds because you did delist them but they rank higher on disposals than most of your high end young talent. So that infers your high end young talent isnt that high and therefore little to no uplift.

Carlton have a history of getting rid of talent and keeping spuds and its possible you have kept worse players than u have delisted.
How many leading goal kickers have you kept over the past 10 years? Fevola, Betts, Garlett, Waite traded, Everitt and Wright delisted.
2016 leading goal kickers in order, Wright, Casboult, Gibbs, Everitt, Armfield, Lamb. 5 of your 6 leading goal kickers gone from 2 years ago
This is why you wont move.
Even if Curnow, McGovern and McKay have break out years and kick 40 goals each your going to struggle to kick 10 goals a game.

Compare your list to saints who have 22 players over 50 games and Brisbane 19 and 8 guys been 20-50 games.
Suns are comparable with Carlton but they even have more experience

It is clear you have no idea what we are doing, in terms of a list rebuild