Draft Profile Liam Stocker

[Monkey King]

If Silvagni had done a brilliant job you still wouldn’t be languishing at the bottom of the ladder.

Silvagni took over a bottom of the ladder list almost devoid of young talent; he hit the draft hard and now 3 years down the track, about half the team are btw 18-21yo. Reckon your method for assessing a list manager needs calibration of you think this strategy was designed to payoff in 2018. Let’s be real, whether SOS has done a brilliant job or not won’t be known for at least a couple of years.

 

[blueboy25]

I am not an informed Carlton fan however I would be worried being the worse team in the competition (spoon) to be drafting & trading a needs based mentality rather than the best available talent.

Maybe they feel that because they have turned over 40+ players in 3 years and have a lot of young talent come into the club and are happy with their tall forward options (Curnow, Mckay and McGovern) and their key defensive posts (Weitering, Marchbank, Jones) but realise they need more midfield depth.

So what do they do? Take a risk and draft a midfielder who they think can play in 2019 instead of waiting until next years draft and hope for the best.

Drafting best available talent instead of taking a risk is like tambling over buddy. I am sure you must understand that reference.

 

[Marcel Proust]

What is humorise is how you are referencing betting markets as a means of determining a finishing position, just as they got it wrong before the start of last year

Apart from Carlton and Adelaide fans on this forum, betting markets on the afl 2019, what would you like to use as a unbias fair and accurate guide?

How about you give me your opinion as to where we will finish

bottom 2

the club and are happy with their tall forward options (Curnow, Mckay and McGovern) and their key defensive posts (Weitering, Marchbank, Jones) but realise they need more midfield depth.

Not maybe this is whats happened. IMHO a risky strategy

about half the team are btw 18-21yo

richmond, and a number of clubs have around half under 22

 

[Arr0w]

bottom 2

Finally we have something that is definitive, I take it you will be placing a wager on that outcome?

 

[Red Bull]

I'm looking and I see an 18th place finish.

At some point when you get the first pick in the draft for half a decade - you are going to get something decent.

Get in the que behind the adelaide supporters mate .
The next decade gonna be fun

 

[dlb99]

You got no understanding of this trade whatsoever, it's not Stocker against pick 1 or 2. If Stocker becomes a very good footballer we got him nothing, just a pick downgrade. You have seemed to forgotten we still have a first round pick, so hold off writing your crap to we see how Stocker turns out.

Folks always seem to forget we have Adelaide's first round pick. An inconvenient truth?

Let's say Carlton finishes 2nd last and Crows finish 7th.

Pick 2 gets swapped for 12 (and Stocker).

Pick 2 could be a gun, or a dud.
Pick 12 could be a gun, or a dud.
Stocker may be a gun, or a dud.

In 2015 pick 2 was Josh Schache, pick 12 Charlie Curnow. How'd that turn out?

This trade can NOT be evaluated until at least four years from now.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

Folks always seem to forget we have Adelaide's first round pick. An inconvenient truth?

Let's say Carlton finishes 2nd last and Crows finish 7th.

Pick 2 gets swapped for 12 (and Stocker).

Pick 2 could be a gun, or a dud.
Pick 12 could be a gun, or a dud.
Stocker may be a gun, or a dud.

In 2015 pick 2 was Josh Schache, pick 12 Charlie Curnow. How'd that turn out?

This trade can NOT be evaluated until at least four years from now.

In your 2015 scenario - with Pick 2 - you could have chosen Charlie Curnow.

Ultimately the player that decides the value of this trade is Stocker.

If he guns it - it's a deal well done. if not - then assuming carlton finish below adelaide - then Carlton have traded significant draft currency for a dud.

 

[Arr0w]

In your 2015 scenario - with Pick 2 - you could have chosen Charlie Curnow.

Ultimately the player that decides the value of this trade is Stocker.

If he guns it - it's a deal well done. if not - then assuming carlton finish below adelaide - then Carlton have traded significant draft currency for a dud.

So there is no value in the 1st rounder we have next year?

 

[Jeremias]

If Silvagni had done a brilliant job you still wouldn’t be languishing at the bottom of the ladder.

This is an incredibly simplistic way of looking at things, with little thought put into why we are where we are, and what we've done over the past few years with Silvagni in charge.

When you shed as much experience and bring in as many kids as we have over the past few years, the reality is a few lowly finishes are to be expected.

The host of second rate GWS castaways he’s brought into the club is ample evidence of a guy that really hasn’t learnt a thing.

And yet, if I asked you to expand on this, I'd bet a significant amount that have no understanding of the rationale behind the decision to recruit these players.

You can talk about lazy recruiting, but the reality is this is a lazy and tired argument.

Bringing in both his sons also smacks of nepotism.

Really? Even when he has said a number of times over the past few years, that he has stepped away from the process completely, when it comes to his sons and deciding whether or not to draft them?

Was it nepotistic for Dororo to bid on Jack in the 2015 draft?

But terrible list manager.

All well and good to put this forward, but you haven't exactly explained it particularly well.

 

[The Falcon Strike]

So there is no value in the 1st rounder we have next year?

Sure there is - but it's expected to be less currency than what you would have had.

 

[dlb99]

In your 2015 scenario - with Pick 2 - you could have chosen Charlie Curnow.

Ultimately the player that decides the value of this trade is Stocker.

If he guns it - it's a deal well done. if not - then assuming carlton finish below adelaide - then Carlton have traded significant draft currency for a dud.

But Carlton, and a heap of other teams, skipped over Charlie Curnow. That's the whole flamin' point.

The lower pick Curnow (12) turned out heaps better than the higher pick Schache (2).

This trade is years away from evaluating winners and losers.

Heck, what if Carlton finishes higher than Adelaide. What then? Unlikely sure, just like Magpies in this year's GF was unlikely.

 

[Robertio]

Sure there is - but it's expected to be less currency than what you would have had.

Thats right, but we also have Stocker. Is that so hard to understand?

 

[dlb99]

Sure there is - but it's expected to be less currency than what you would have had.

Some expected WCE to finish outside the 8 this year. You ended up premiers.

F*** expectations, the Blues aim to be heaps better. We will be anti-tanking next year

 

[Marcel Proust]

Folks always seem to forget we have Adelaide's first round pick. An inconvenient truth?

Thats right, but we also have Stocker. Is that so hard to understand?

99% of the people reading this thread 'understand the trade'.

Some expected WCE to finish outside the 8 this year. You ended up premiers.

F*** expectations, the Blues aim to be heaps better. We will be anti-tanking next year

the top 8 and bottom four, were almost entirely as expected apart from Adelaide/WCE

for example, the market correctly predicted Melbourne making the finals for the first time in a while

 

[La Dispute]

I’ll reiterate - ladder predictions aren’t just a point blank evaluation on the basis of one wholesale projection: they are created on 22 smaller predictions, some of which are made over 8 months in advance.

Remember when Carlton were flag favourites after Round 3, 2012?

And how much were Richmond paying to win the premiership in 2017 after Round 23, 2016?

It’s a very flimsy, overtly rigid assessment.

 

[Arr0w]

Sure there is - but it's expected to be less currency than what you would have had.

Changing currency has nothing to do with the level of outcome

 

[dlb99]

the top 8 and bottom four, were almost entirely as expected apart from Adelaide/WCE

Untrue. Fake news.

Pretty much no one expected Collingwood in the 8, let alone top 2.

As George Costanza once said, it's not a lie if you believe it's true. Keep believing your fairytales.

 

[Blues_Man]

Add Weitering to that list.
Clayton Oliver already an elite midfielder at 21. Reckon Carlton learnt their lesson.

Draft picks are speculative...as you should well know Tambling lol

 

[Blues_Man]

Sounds good in theory but its it'll be interesting to see how the career of pick 1 (or pick 2) pans out vs. Liam Stocker.

Pretty ignortant post..those aren't the only to factors in the deal newby

 

[jezzajay]

99% of the people reading this thread 'understand the trade'.



the top 8 and bottom four, were almost entirely as expected apart from Adelaide/WCE

for example, the market correctly predicted Melbourne making the finals for the first time in a while

 

[LemmingMaster]

If Silvagni had done a brilliant job you still wouldn’t be languishing at the bottom of the ladder. The host of second rate GWS castaways he’s brought into the club is ample evidence of a guy that really hasn’t learnt a thing. First, he drafts them whilst at GWS, then, even when GWS are happy to part with them, trades for them again! It’s mind blowing and quite lazy recruiting. Bringing in both his sons also smacks of nepotism.

Silvagni comes across as a thoroughly unimpressive individual intellectually. Just hope that the Blues keep him as the longer he’s there the less likely you guys are to be a force again. He was a great footballer. But terrible list manager.

Can you highlight the trades SOS made as Carlton list manager which you disagree with, then we can decide on the true value of those trades?

I am always interested if people actually know facts or just love to throw out random insults.

 

[LemmingMaster]

To disregard Stocker vs pick 2 by arguing betting markets are not based on reality is short sighted.

Once again, can we deal in facts?

Stocker + Adelaides 2019 1st (14 at a rough guess?) v Carltons 2019 1st (3 at a rough guess?)

1. Now an important aspect of this trade is Carlton knew exactly who there were getting in 2018.
2. Rightly or wrongly, Carlton rated Stocker as the 6th best player based on our needs

Considering the top end talent in Walsh, Lukosius, Rankine and Max King were some of the most highly rated juniors I've seen in a long time, they may have viewed Stocker as a top 4 pick in most normal years.

 

[Malifice]

Would you mind pointing out the bits “lifted from poorly researched journo articles”?

I don’t think any of the facts that I posted are indisputable.

You're full of it, and either trolling or oblivious to football. I made a thread about this on the main board, detaling the drafting over the past few years since SOS has come on board.

Our current predicament isnt due to SOS, it's due to our woeful drafting from 2007-2014 (in the time before SOS came on board). We blew 8/9 first round Picks in that time on Lucas, Bootsma, McLean, Yarran, Menzel, Boekhoest, Jacksch, Watson (only Cripps was a win and remains on the list), and our 2nd, 3rd and later picks didnt fare any better.

Accordingly we had a huge hole in our list with almost no talent of the ages of 18-26 at the start of 2015 with Murphy, Gibbs, Kruezer and Simpson being our core players, and not much else of note on the list (and those 3 blokes pushing 30).

We were headed towards the edge of a massive cliff.

SOS was given a mandate to fill the list full of young players and do a 'total list reset' from the ground up, essentially building a brand new list around Docherty (then 21) and Cripps (then 20) with everyone else expendible. In the last 4 drafts/ trade periods we've traded out senior players for extra picks (Gibbs, Yarran, Henderson, Tuohy) and brought in over a dozen quality young players (who are mostly still developing). Walsh, Stocker, Setterfield, Dow, Kennedy, McGovern, Weitering, Curnow, McKay, Fisher, Marchbank, Kennedy, Plowman, SPS, OBrien.

Thats 15 x 1st round picks in just 4 drafts/ 3 years.

We now have what we believe is the core of our list going forwards, but they're mostly still 18-21 years of age and in their first, second or third years (I.e. too young to be regular stars, and in need of a few more pre-seasons).

We're done with the draft for a few years now (as can be seen with the trading of next years 1st for Stocker). Next year we'll look to get a years development into the list we have, and then will look to supplement that list with F/A and trades in areas of need.

 

[Rich01]

Draft picks are speculative...as you should well know Tambling lol

They sure are. We found out Tambling was a dud. And Oliver is an AA.
Looks like we both missed a trick there eh?

 

[Arr0w]

99% of the people reading this thread 'understand the trade'.



the top 8 and bottom four, were almost entirely as expected apart from Adelaide/WCE

for example, the market correctly predicted Melbourne making the finals for the first time in a while

I have come to the conclusion, that you are an uneducated football, troll

Still waiting to know if you will be placing a wager on us finishing bottom 2, as you seem quite definitive. Happy to take on the wager, for any denomination that suits you