Racing December Daily Punt - Jingle All The Way

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Mar 17, 2014
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Collingwood
Interesting developments for ANZ customers. Other banks may follow

According to ANZ's new problem gambler policy, credit card holders won't be able to use more than 85 per cent of their available credit while making punts through online gambling accounts.

The policy only applies to internet gambling as punters are already not allowed to draw down on their credit cards at gaming venues.
Lol 85% . yep that will help them
 

Jack Gun Cyril Stun

Club Legend
Oct 5, 2012
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So Messara owns TAS, and is chairman of racing NSW. TAS widely tipped to dominate the autumn and retire.

Suddenly we have a 7.5 mill race over an amazingly suitable distance of 1500m restricted specifically to 4yos to encourage horses not to retire early

Mildly convenient

Not chair anymore, but btp....
The Golden Messara strikes again!

Didn’t the QE get bumped up just in time for Its A Dundeel to waltz home.
Gotta to give him credit, he must be chuckling to himself, ‘I’ve played them again’. Alan Jones prob in on it too.
 

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wish they would put up odds for the sprint series next year. been waiting to back nature strip in the newmarket for what feels like years.

Relax - you'll get plenty of time to burn your money
 
also will i be strung up on here 2 years in a row saying the winterbottom was again the worst of the 3 majors in WA? Because for 2 years running it is. don't even need to see this weeks race to call it early.

No this year you will be right - last year you were categorically proven wrong except in your own fantasy land.
 
and yet today your keen on Material Man who couldn't get the job done in easier races last year. Maybe if he had some Furyhk form he might go ok.

Yes but the Winterbottom was won by a horse that needed 10 goes at the top level to finally win one.

If Great Shot wins today then this will be the weakest for the second year running.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
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Port Adelaide
since 2010,

13 3yo's have contested the race

they've won it 3 times. 23% strike rate
in total thats 37% of the recent KT's
they did not contest one, so 43% KT's with a 3yo in it has been won by one.


since the race inception

it has been won 16 times by 3yo's (41 races) ie 39% of the time.
6 times the guineas winner has backed up here and won, compared to just the 5 railway winners.

i'm all laying the hype 3yo's its just AQ has been a backable price for 3 starts in a row mainly thanks to people having nfi about fillies vs colts last week.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Yes but the Winterbottom was won by a horse that needed 10 goes at the top level to finally win one.

If Great Shot wins today then this will be the weakest for the second year running.

you focus to much on winners, Viddora underperformed last year, Furyhk run second by 1.5L, if furyhk gets within 1.5L of BHB/Pounamu or Material Man last year i'd have been shocked. Viddora is better than what she ran in the winterbottom last year, at least i'd hope so.
 

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Viva la Mattner

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 30, 2007
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Think Arcadia Queen gets the job done. 50kg and Pike is huge

Granted you are correct Paris $2.40 is poison, I'm on at $4.40 antepost happy enough with that.

Will have something small E/W on Mister Sea Wolf and Iconoclasm
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
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FWIW prices for KT

upload_2018-12-8_7-2-54.png


actually surprised how short i have AQ I was expecting 2.60-2.70
 
you focus to much on winners, Viddora underperformed last year, Furyhk run second by 1.5L, if furyhk gets within 1.5L of BHB/Pounamu or Material Man last year i'd have been shocked. Viddora is better than what she ran in the winterbottom last year, at least i'd hope so.

Sorry wut!?! - Viddora under performed in winning last year yet you thought it was an $8-$9 shot on the day? o_O You really do have the power of Goebbels in manipulating story lines.
 
since 2010,

13 3yo's have contested the race

they've won it 3 times. 23% strike rate
in total thats 37% of the recent KT's
they did not contest one, so 43% KT's with a 3yo in it has been won by one.


since the race inception

it has been won 16 times by 3yo's (41 races) ie 39% of the time.
6 times the guineas winner has backed up here and won, compared to just the 5 railway winners.

i'm all laying the hype 3yo's its just AQ has been a backable price for 3 starts in a row mainly thanks to people having nfi about fillies vs colts last week.

No one is saying she can't win - we are just saying she is absolute poison unders.
 

Viva la Mattner

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 30, 2007
7,543
7,230
Adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Cleveland Browns, Tottenham
My fancys today:

Rosehill
R7- Albumin

Doomben
R3- Sofie's Gold Class
R7- Coldstone
R8- Our Crown Mistress & Plumaro

Morphettville
R5- Frankel My Dear - E/W
R6- Tildy Lad
R7- Lope dear Capo E/W
R8- Lady of Crebilly
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
Sorry wut!?! - Viddora under performed in winning last year yet you thought it was an $8-$9 shot on the day? o_O You really do have the power of Goebbels in manipulating story lines.

this happens in like 80% of races. you think winx runs close to her top every start? had her as below


Fairly average race. No Vega Magic's this year iluvparis State Solicitor can make a jump that he's been teasing to do (although not 4.5L) i'm tipping Rock Magic to just hold form and from a good run be in it. Class below last years interstate raiders who didn't really enthuse. Caipirinha and Malibu Style from wide the only 2 that would really surprise.

6.60, SP was 5.60.

in retrospect she ran as i expected although not at her top which rarely happens. i should have been harder on State Solicitor and with the hard drift on SS i could have pushed him out to 10's by the time the race jumped. so by rights should have had her neutral on prices.

FWIW voodoo lad underperformed for his top last week too but within normal range. i would say viddora was 1-1.5L below what she could do.
 
Jan 30, 2013
16,166
16,559
AFL Club
Port Adelaide
One filly has won in the history of the race - so she should be about 40/1 :thumbsu:

3 have contested it since the oaks was moved to april and not directly before the KT. (Almost 20 years) prior to that i assume not many ran in it.the fillies program is very hard to get here.

4th, 5th, 1st never beaten more than 2L
 

come on oliver

Club Legend
Mar 17, 2015
1,452
2,571
AFL Club
Adelaide
My fancys today:

Rosehill
R7- Albumin

Doomben
R3- Sofie's Gold Class
R7- Coldstone
R8- Our Crown Mistress & Plumaro

Morphettville
R5- Frankel My Dear - E/W
R6- Tildy Lad
R7- Lope dear Capo E/W
R8- Lady of Crebilly

They are keen on Charossa in the last. Are expecting it to run very well. They lost the stablemate mondo magic during the week and wanting a win.
 

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