No Oppo Supporters Double-Death-Riding Carlton 2019 Edition - Currently Pick 1 and 19

[Dudersaurus]

Looking forward to this season, most people think Carlton are screwed with this deal, however you need to look into specifics. When Adelaide made the final, they had the likes of Lever, Charlie cameran, Talia (will have an interrupted pre-season). Also with the likes of Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins, Sloane getting quite old the forward line + midfield could suffer from injuries. Similarly Simpson, Ed Curno, murph could also go down with injuries.

We have the likes of Weitering, C Curno, Mckay, Kennedy going into 4th years. SPS, Fisher, Williamson going into their 3rd years. Moreover, these players will be removing the spuds we had to play last year, e.g. Kerridge, graham, Mullet, O'shea who would stuff up passes going into and out of 50, screwing up our chances of not looking like fools. If we scored a goal, the likes of Mullet or O'shea in the backline would almost certainly turn it over removing any hope of a close game. We also have Setterfield who could go crazy from round 1, or be just be okay. Mcgovern who still hasnt played a full season could break out 2019. So many variables for both teams.

I'm heartbroken that Docherty is injured, probably career ending, as its nearly impossible to come back from two knee reco's. The presence he has on field is immense organising the backline and just his general gameplay. Most Adelaide fans will not take this into account, if Carlton get slaughtered this year.

However, saying all of this Adelaide could bounce back with a fresh season and finish in the top 6, and we finish in the bottom 2. Most things all come down to injuries, whoever suffers more, loses.

I guess the issue is he is not a loss when compared to last year. I don't think anyone (even honest blues fans) expected his personal input to equal 2017, but his return was going to be a source of improvement, which is no longer there.

 

[goBlue]

I think missing Doc as an organiser in defence will be a massive loss. I think most cows supporters make that point when predicting doom, not ignore it.

Not necessarily saying u wont make that point now, however, over the season people will forget and say what a bad deal SoS did when he could've never predicted Docherty would get injured.

 

[Sanders]

Not necessarily saying u wont make that point now, however, over the season people will forget and say what a bad deal SoS did when he could've never predicted Docherty would get injured.

A deal without any resilience built in is a poor deal

 

[goBlue]

I guess the issue is he is not a loss when compared to last year. I don't think anyone (even honest blues fans) expected his personal input to equal 2017, but his return was going to be a source of improvement, which is no longer there.

It's not just his personal input to a game, its his organisation in the backline, knowing were to be at the right time. Footy smarts that some players dont have.

 

[goBlue]

A deal without any resilience built in is a poor deal

Thats like saying if we got Shiel and he got injured its a poor deal. You cant foresee these things

 

[70lethal]

If Kade Simpson stays fit this year he will have played in the most losses by any one player in the history of the game.
Sadly Cripps win/loss record is worse than Kades and there's not much light for a long time.
Sadly Weiterings win/loss record is even worst.
The likes of Zac Fisher being under 15% win record is high. It's quite possible he will have one of the worst win/loss records in the last 80 years of AFL/VFL football for players over 50 games by the end of2019
Worst than any sun or gws after 50 games.

The more carlton and the media talk up this rebuild the worse its looking and the more things are going wrong.

 

[Dudersaurus]

It's not just his personal input to a game, its his organisation in the backline, knowing were to be at the right time. Footy smarts that some players dont have.

Yep, which I think we all acknowledge. We may well forget, but in many opinions his absence is prolly the difference between bottom 4 and bottom 2-3. So we'll happily continue to ride SOS. Or go surprisingly silent.

 

[Dudersaurus]

Thats like saying if we got Shiel and he got injured its a poor deal. You cant foresee these things

It's really like the Lever deal. Draft picks for players are always a gamble. Personally I think we got shafted on the deal initially, but now there is a real chance we made out like bandits.

 

[WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot]

Not necessarily saying u wont make that point now, however, over the season people will forget and say what a bad deal SoS did when he could've never predicted Docherty would get injured.

Even prior to the Docherty injury, most had Carlton down to finish in the bottom 4, with most putting them in 17th, just ahead of GC. Similarly, most had Adelaide down to bounce back and make finals in 2019.

So let's assume Carlton finish bottom 4 and Adelaide finish 8th.

That makes the deal Pick 1-4 in 2019 for Pick 19 in 2018 and Pick 11 in 2018. From a draft points value perspective that is between 2,034 (pick 4) to 3,000 (pick 1) points compared to 948 (pick 19) + 1,329 (pick 11) = 2,277.

So, in points terms, pick 19 and pick 11 is roughly equal to pick 3.

Even if Docherty didn't get injured, I personally didn't expect Carlton to finish any higher than 17th. If you are optimistic and think that they will finish 15th, that still only makes the deal even in points terms if Adelaide finish no higher than 8th.

The only potential game changer to that is that Carlton weren't trading for pick 19. They were trading for Stocker, who they valued at pick 6. So the Blues effectively valued Stocker as being worth 1,751 points, meaning that, from their perspective, even if the Crows win the flag in 2019 (giving the Blues pick 18 - 985 points), they would still have ended up with a trade worth 2,736 points, which is worth more than pick 2 in points terms.

So really, whether this trade is worth it (purely from a points perspective, which may be a terrible way of making that sort of call) all hinges on Stocker being the 6th best player in the 2018 draft. If he is, then the deal is likely worth doing, even if Adelaide get pick 2 in the 2019 draft and Carlton get pick 18. If Stocker ends up being around the 15th-20th best player from the 2018 draft then the deal likely was a dud for them.

 

[70lethal]

The players and picks used or transferred during trade and draft period between Carlton and Adelaide
Carlton In: McGovern, Setterfield, Walsh, Stocker, our 2019 1st pick 12 (approx)
Carlton Out: Pick 1(2018), 26, 28, 43, McAdam, 2019 1st, 2019 2nd (1 & 19 - 3 & 21).

They've handed up pick 4 - 7 for each of the 4 players and received no premium for their 1st.

Adelaide in McHenry, Jones, McAdam, Hamill, Carlton 2019 (1 & 19 or 2 & 20).
Out pick 8, 13, 16, 21, 40 and 2019 1st pick 12.

If Carlton finish 16th-18th we paid around pick 25-30 for each of our players and paid no premium to trade up next year

Anyone want to argue who got the best value between the 2 clubs.

 

[SkyhorseTamer]

The more carlton and the media talk up this rebuild the worse its looking and the more things are going wrong.

The media really only says s**t about Carlton. Love sticking the boots in. Plus Carlton isn’t saying much about this rebuild. The pr team does a bit encouraging the supporter base but no arrogance or ‘here we come’ type statements.

Or are you doing what far too many fans do when they confuse a clubs fans for the club itself?

 

[Shaz2012]

The players and picks used or transferred during trade and draft period between Carlton and Adelaide
Carlton In: McGovern, Setterfield, Walsh, Stocker, our 2019 1st pick 12 (approx)
Carlton Out: Pick 1(2018), 26, 28, 43, McAdam, 2019 1st, 2019 2nd (1 & 19 - 3 & 21).

They've handed up pick 4 - 7 for each of the 4 players and received no premium for their 1st.

Adelaide in McHenry, Jones, McAdam, Hamill, Carlton 2019 (1 & 19 or 2 & 20).
Out pick 8, 13, 16, 21, 40 and 2019 1st pick 12.

If Carlton finish 16th-18th we paid around pick 25-30 for each of our players and paid no premium to trade up next year

Anyone want to argue who got the best value between the 2 clubs.

Good summary. They overpaid hugely for Walsh. Could have got much better value if they traded out pick 1. But I still think it makes sense with what they did with us in terms of where they are at. They have already collected and hoarded first round picks including number 1s. It was time to pivot. Let’s not forget that we were prepared to pay overs to get players too. Paying overs are not dirty words. So when it came time for them to get Stocker, they had to pay overs. It’s as simple as that. For us to give up one of the first rounders that we got for Lever, the other club was going to have to pay huge overs. But doing that doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision.

I doubt even SOS expects them to win this specific trade on paper. Get a year into Stocker, trade out our pick (~12) for a 25 year old that fills a need and they have done ok. The fans will be right the way behind their team for all 22 rounds unlike most years where they usually want to tank at some stage. I like it. If this doesn’t introduce a positive shift in culture right throughout their club I don’t know what will.

 

[Deaneus!]

Richmond MCG Home - Loss
Port Adelaide Adelaide Oval Away --Loss
Sydney Marvel Stadium Home --Loss
Gold Coast Metricon Stadium Away -50/50
Western Bulldogs Marvel Stadium Away --50/50
Hawthorn University of Tasmania Stadium Away --Loss
North Melbourne Marvel Stadium Home--Loss
Collingwood MCG Home--Loss
GWS Sydney Showgrounds Stadium Away--Loss
St Kilda Marvel Stadium Away 50/50
Essendon MCG Away --Loss
Brisbane Lions Marvel Stadium Home --Win
Western Bulldogs Marvel Stadium Home --50/50

Fremantle Optus Stadium Away --Loss
Melbourne MCG Home--Loss
Sydney SCG Away--Loss
Gold Coast Marvel Stadium Home -- Win
Adelaide MCG Home --Loss
West Coast Marvel Stadium Home--Loss
Richmond MCG Away--Loss
St Kilda MCG Home --50/50
Geelong GMHBA Stadium Away --Loss


im giving carlton 4-5 wins.

Oh, they’re not going to beat Brisbane

Zorko, Neale, Lyons, Martin in the ruck... nope

 

[Bearded Clam]

Looking forward to this season, most people think Carlton are screwed with this deal, however you need to look into specifics. When Adelaide made the final, they had the likes of Lever, Charlie cameran, Talia (will have an interrupted pre-season). Also with the likes of Betts, Walker, Lynch, Jenkins, Sloane getting quite old the forward line + midfield could suffer from injuries. Similarly Simpson, Ed Curno, murph could also go down with injuries.

We have the likes of Weitering, C Curno, Mckay, Kennedy going into 4th years. SPS, Fisher, Williamson going into their 3rd years. Moreover, these players will be removing the spuds we had to play last year, e.g. Kerridge, graham, Mullet, O'shea who would stuff up passes going into and out of 50, screwing up our chances of not looking like fools. If we scored a goal, the likes of Mullet or O'shea in the backline would almost certainly turn it over removing any hope of a close game. We also have Setterfield who could go crazy from round 1, or be just be okay. Mcgovern who still hasnt played a full season could break out 2019. So many variables for both teams.

I'm heartbroken that Docherty is injured, probably career ending, as its nearly impossible to come back from two knee reco's. The presence he has on field is immense organising the backline and just his general gameplay. Most Adelaide fans will not take this into account, if Carlton get slaughtered this year.

However, saying all of this Adelaide could bounce back with a fresh season and finish in the top 6, and we finish in the bottom 2. Most things all come down to injuries, whoever suffers more, loses.

Love it how the carlton flogs come on here and rant about lever, cameron and mcgovern leaving adelaide and then talking about betts, walker, lynch and jenkins as if to somehow imply that adelaide is old and has lost all its youth in recent times..

Funny how they never meantion names like doedee, mcrouch, laird, milera, fogarty, gallucci.. when they rant about adelaide and its future..

Carlton have a heap of tired old players that arent even that great... then they have bugger all in the way of mid age range players and a heap of very promising young players that are being developed by one of the worst clubs in the comp when it comes to developing young talent...

You finished bottom last year FFS!!!.. you only won two ******* games.. take your “our list is better than adelaide’s” bullshit insinuations back to your s**t carlton board.

 

[Arr0w]

The players and picks used or transferred during trade and draft period between Carlton and Adelaide
Carlton In: McGovern, Setterfield, Walsh, Stocker, our 2019 1st pick 12 (approx)
Carlton Out: Pick 1(2018), 26, 28, 43, McAdam, 2019 1st, 2019 2nd (1 & 19 - 3 & 21).

They've handed up pick 4 - 7 for each of the 4 players and received no premium for their 1st.

Adelaide in McHenry, Jones, McAdam, Hamill, Carlton 2019 (1 & 19 or 2 & 20).
Out pick 8, 13, 16, 21, 40 and 2019 1st pick 12.

If Carlton finish 16th-18th we paid around pick 25-30 for each of our players and paid no premium to trade up next year

Anyone want to argue who got the best value between the 2 clubs.

Interesting that you would only use picks from this year and the future, many that were never exchanged by both of our clubs, yet exclude last year's deals, that are intertwined with the current open positions

The deal for Gibbs and McGovern is intertwined and is still ongoing, this is what it looks like for us

Gained: O'Brien, Schumacher, Kennedy, De Koning,McGovern, Stocker, 2019 1st (Crows) 2019 3rd (Crows)
Lost: Gibbs, Wooller, Richards, Hill, McInerney, Foley, Jordon, McAdam, 2019 1st, 5th (Carlton)

This is what the McGovern and Stocker deal looks like for the Crows

Gained: McHenry, McAdam, Carlton 2019 1st, 5th
Lost: McGovern, Foley, Jordon, McInerney, Adelaide 2019 1st, 3rd

If you are purely wanting to calculate value for this year and next, perhaps adding later 2019 picks that were exchanged would be more appropriate

Hamill had nothing to do with us, the pick you got from GWS, came from Fremantle. But you did do well in the trade with them, losing Hill, 2019 5th (Crows), gaining Hamill, 2019 2nd (Carlton)

Edited: To include the Stocker deal

 

[70lethal]

Good summary. They overpaid hugely for Walsh. Could have got much better value if they traded out pick 1. But I still think it makes sense with what they did with us in terms of where they are at. They have already collected and hoarded first round picks including number 1s. It was time to pivot. Let’s not forget that we were prepared to pay overs to get players too. Paying overs are not dirty words. So when it came time for them to get Stocker, they had to pay overs. It’s as simple as that. For us to give up one of the first rounders that we got for Lever, the other club was going to have to pay huge overs. But doing that doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision.

I doubt even SOS expects them to win this specific trade on paper. Get a year into Stocker, trade out our pick (~12) for a 25 year old that fills a need and they have done ok. The fans will be right the way behind their team for all 22 rounds unlike most years where they usually want to tank at some stage. I like it. If this doesn’t introduce a positive shift in culture right throughout their club I don’t know what will.

As a whole they paid pick 5-9 for McGovern (not that we got pick 5, Sydney took a huge cut)
They paid pick 5-6 for Setterfield and guy coming of 2 injury filled years.
They paid pick 5-6 for Stocker
They paid pick 4-5 for Walsh.
And while everyone is paying massive overs to get up the draft (Port, Carlton, GC and GWS) they got no premium for next years.

They paid serious overs when they

The media really only says s**t about Carlton. Love sticking the boots in. Plus Carlton isn’t saying much about this rebuild. The pr team does a bit encouraging the supporter base but no arrogance or ‘here we come’ type statements.
Or are you doing what far too many fans do when they confuse a clubs fans for the club itself?

McClure pumps your tyres pretty hard only for you to drive over a nail 10 minutes later.

 

[FR0GGY]

Do the carlton board remember you Arr0w ?

 

[conVINCEd]

Good summary. They overpaid hugely for Walsh. Could have got much better value if they traded out pick 1. But I still think it makes sense with what they did with us in terms of where they are at. They have already collected and hoarded first round picks including number 1s. It was time to pivot. Let’s not forget that we were prepared to pay overs to get players too. Paying overs are not dirty words. So when it came time for them to get Stocker, they had to pay overs. It’s as simple as that. For us to give up one of the first rounders that we got for Lever, the other club was going to have to pay huge overs. But doing that doesn’t mean it was the wrong decision.

I doubt even SOS expects them to win this specific trade on paper. Get a year into Stocker, trade out our pick (~12) for a 25 year old that fills a need and they have done ok. The fans will be right the way behind their team for all 22 rounds unlike most years where they usually want to tank at some stage. I like it. If this doesn’t introduce a positive shift in culture right throughout their club I don’t know what will.

Agreed. As much as I want Carlton to finish last so we benefit, I think they’ve at least made a strong statement that they now expect to improve. That actually changes the mindset of the players and coaches from feeling comfortable with another wooden spoon because yay more early picks.

 

[hippyhippy]

Oh, they’re not going to beat Brisbane

Zorko, Neale, Lyons, Martin in the ruck... nope

giving them the home ground advantage

 

[Arr0w]

Do the carlton board remember you Arr0w ?

Froggy, I was warned about wandering outside the confines of safety and into the abyss

Anyway, been fun gang, talk to you at the end of next year, where we can review all the intriguing opinions

Have a great season

 

[FR0GGY]

Froggy, I was warned about wandering outside the confines of safety and into the abyss

Anyway, been fun gang, talk to you at the end of next year, where we can review all the intriguing opinions

Have a great season

You've been respectful, its just getting a fair bit, don't think people would mind if you popped over with the odd post.

 

[70lethal]

Interesting that you would only use picks from this year and the future, many that were never exchanged by both of our clubs, yet exclude last year's deals, that are intertwined with the current open positions

The deal for Gibbs and McGovern is intertwined and is still ongoing, this is what it looks like for us

Gained: O'Brien, Schumacher, Kennedy, De Koning,McGovern, Stocker, 2019 1st (Crows) 2019 3rd (Crows)
Lost: Gibbs, Wooller, Richards, Hill, McInerney, Foley, Jordon, McAdam, 2019 1st, 5th (Carlton)

This is what the McGovern and Stocker deal looks like for the Crows

Gained: McHenry, McAdam, Carlton 2019 1st, 5th
Lost: McGovern, Foley, Jordon, McInerney, Adelaide 2019 1st, 3rd

If you are purely wanting to calculate value for this year and next, perhaps adding later 2019 picks that were exchanged would be more appropriate

Hamill had nothing to do with us, the pick you got from GWS, came from Fremantle. But you did do well in the trade with them, losing Hill, 2019 5th (Crows), gaining Hamill, 2019 2nd (Carlton)

Edited: To include the Stocker deal[/QUOTE
2019 period sorry something so simple is so difficult for you
So last year did Reid and SOS said we will do this Gibbs trade and next year we will do McGovern/ If not they arent intertwined.
So next year what did they agree on?
The later round 5 picks seriously? Worry about the cents and forget the dollars

Your philosophy is so stupid because you cant count something you never had or might not have choosen.
Ogilvie may not have choosen Richards, Wooller etc.
Just admit you got fleeced this year and losing Gibbs last year lead you to your worst season so smart move ah.

While everyone else is giving up 500-1000 points to move up you gave away a top 1-2 without any premium.

 

[ad victoriam]

Interesting that you would only use picks from this year and the future, many that were never exchanged by both of our clubs, yet exclude last year's deals, that are intertwined with the current open positions

The deal for Gibbs and McGovern is intertwined and is still ongoing, this is what it looks like for us

Gained: O'Brien, Schumacher, Kennedy, De Koning,McGovern, Stocker, 2019 1st (Crows) 2019 3rd (Crows)
Lost: Gibbs, Wooller, Richards, Hill, McInerney, Foley, Jordon, McAdam, 2019 1st, 5th (Carlton)

This is what the McGovern and Stocker deal looks like for the Crows

Gained: McHenry, McAdam, Carlton 2019 1st, 5th
Lost: McGovern, Foley, Jordon, McInerney, Adelaide 2019 1st, 3rd

If you are purely wanting to calculate value for this year and next, perhaps adding later 2019 picks that were exchanged would be more appropriate

Hamill had nothing to do with us, the pick you got from GWS, came from Fremantle. But you did do well in the trade with them, losing Hill, 2019 5th (Crows), gaining Hamill, 2019 2nd (Carlton)

Edited: To include the Stocker deal

You need to edit the bolded bit they are Carlton loses not the Crows,
Also need to remember that the that Carlton 2nd rd 2018 pick we received from the Gibbs trade turned out to be Freo's 2018 pick 30 and Carlton's 2nd rd 2019. And we still got the player we wanted.

 

[radiojake]

Arrow has set themselves up nicely -

If Carlton manage to jag 6 or more wins, and avoid bottom 4, they have every right to rub it in

If Carlton finish bottom two, they need to come back and cop their serve

 

[Donkey Magoo]

What’s going to make it hard in assessing the trade is Carlton’s poor player development . Carlton May done well, but their inability to properly develop talent will suppress their results.