Prediction 2019 Draftees - Who will be the stand outs?

[Moist Biscuit]

So what are your thoughts on Walsh and Stocker? Both are raved about irrefutably too.
Professionalism and maturity is noticeable in both lads especially Walsh.

Ha check the Stocker thread for my proper thoughts, but imo you overpaid a bit but it lets you get another midfielder through the door a year earlier so that is a bonus. Walsh is an out and out gun though, safest bet with him for sure.

 

[bmaurizio]

Ha check the Stocker thread for my proper thoughts, but imo you overpaid a bit but it lets you get another midfielder through the door a year earlier so that is a bonus. Walsh is an out and out gun though, safest bet with him for sure.

Yes at times I get a feeling Silvagni and his team have gone out on a limb a bit too, but hearing he's a strong inside midfielder,and good burst speed, dual sided neat kick on both feet has some tricks too.
Has put together a couple of impressive performances, Ive got fingers crossed we‘ve got this one right.

 

[Crow till I die]

He can add a few more $$$ to the offers if he has a big year

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/12/13/are-clubs-already-approaching-lukosius-about-suns-departure/

 

[bmaurizio]

He can add a few more $$$ to the offers if he has a big year

https://www.sen.com.au/news/2018/12/13/are-clubs-already-approaching-lukosius-about-suns-departure/

Not surprised, if one were a prodigious football talent like Jack and Izak are and the AFL coherst them to play on the Sunshine Coast reckon they’ll be out the door earliest opportunity.
Originating from a frenzied and footy crazy Adelaide can anyone blame them?

 

[Crow till I die]

Not surprised, if one were a prodigious football talent like Jack and Izak are and the AFL coherst them to play on the Sunshine Coast reckon they’ll be out the door earliest opportunity.
Originating from a frenzied and footy crazy Adelaide can anyone blame them?

Absolutely. I have tried to make this point on our boards that GC made a mistake not trading down for more 1st rounders and go for a small target strategy to try and mitigate the go home factor after what has just happened to their club. But I am in the minority it seems however I am uber confident that my predictions will come to pass that these guys won't stay long at GC and the big loser will be Gold Coast when they did not have to be. Now this article might be a bit of scuttlebut but also there may very well be a conga line of clubs heavily tracking Luko, Rankine & King and to be fair I would be filthy if the crows were not front and centre considering both Luko and Rankine are big fans of the club and are from Adelaide.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Absolutely. I have tried to make this point on our boards that GC made a mistake not trading down for more 1st rounders and go for a small target strategy to try and mitigate the go home factor after what has just happened to their club. But I am in the minority it seems however I am uber confident that my predictions will come to pass that these guys won't stay long at GC and the big loser will be Gold Coast when they did not have to be. Now this article might be a bit of scuttlebut but also there may very well be a conga line of clubs heavily tracking Luko, Rankine & King and to be fair I would be filthy if the crows were not front and centre considering both Luko and Rankine are big fans of the club and are from Adelaide.

GC cant not draft precocious talent because of any perceeived risk though. That's loser thinking.

The first and foremost priority is not to blow top picks, ie select a player that will be valuable.Otherwise the pick is wasted.If a good player wants out you will get trade compensation.

They do need to create an environment that will allow some stability in their playing group, and make these guys want to stay. You'd be a fool to think Stewart Dew and the football department dont realise this.

Losing their captains might be a negative, but you can't tell from outside. It just might be an opportunity to improve the dynamics in the playing group. Sometimes when what your doing isn't working, change is a very good idea.

 

[liz]

GC cant not draft precocious talent because of any perceeived risk though. That's loser thinking.

The first and foremost priority is not to blow top picks, ie select a player that will be valuable.Otherwise the pick is wasted.If a good player wants out you will get trade compensation.

They do need to create an environment that will allow some stability in their playing group, and make these guys want to stay. You'd be a fool to think Stewart Dew and the football department dont realise this.

Losing their captains might be a negative, but you can't tell from outside. It just might be an opportunity to improve the dynamics in the playing group. Sometimes when what your doing isn't working, change is a very good idea.

Exactly. It made zero sense for Gold Coast to trade down so they could draft lesser talent, talent that's just as likely to have other (vulture) clubs whispering in their ears and trying to lure them out of the door once their initial contracts are up.

No-one will suggest that the Gold Coast have got everything right since they were established but it's not easy setting up a new club from scratch and creating a culture where players want to stay, particularly when early success doesn't come (ie the contrast to GWS who were able to create a competitive team quickly) and there are several vulture clubs preying on your young talent.

I'd love to see the AFL intervene to impose a tough salary cap tax on clubs who poach out-of-contract players from other clubs before those players have earned free agency. It won't completely stop the leakage of talent from Queensland (where the issue is clearly the most problematic) but may stem the tide and give the Suns (and Brisbane) the chance to build a core of players committed long term to their club.

 

[Crow till I die]

Exactly. It made zero sense for Gold Coast to trade down so they could draft lesser talent, talent that's just as likely to have other (vulture) clubs whispering in their ears and trying to lure them out of the door once their initial contracts are up.

No-one will suggest that the Gold Coast have got everything right since they were established but it's not easy setting up a new club from scratch and creating a culture where players want to stay, particularly when early success doesn't come (ie the contrast to GWS who were able to create a competitive team quickly) and there are several vulture clubs preying on your young talent.

I'd love to see the AFL intervene to impose a tough salary cap tax on clubs who poach out-of-contract players from other clubs before those players have earned free agency. It won't completely stop the leakage of talent from Queensland (where the issue is clearly the most problematic) but may stem the tide and give the Suns (and Brisbane) the chance to build a core of players committed long term to their club.

This is where I disagree this year in particular after what has just happened. Any other club - sure you draft best available, but GC lack talent across the board and more 1st round talent than just a few top end talent spreads the load and spreads the risk of losing those players - particularly when they drafted a guy at 3 that is seen as a huge flight risk and a guy at 6 that is the same. I think they should have gone for setting up a platform by bringing in as much talent as possible and then build on that over the coming years. Sure they can back themselves and say all the right things and even the players can say what the club wants to hear but what a risk in putting your eggs all in that basket and if in 2 years time these guys walk out - they literally are back to square 1.

Even on their own board one of their posters issued a warning to their own supporters about players saying one thing and doing another - Jack Scrimshaw could not have been more positive in what he said about going to GC and here we are at the end of the 2 year contract he is now playing for Hawthorn - a top 10 draftee lost after the 1st contract. In reality they can be as bullish as they want to be but if there is any substance to the SEN discussion, it looks like it is going to be a very hard road for them to travel to keep these guys

 

[Crow till I die]

GC cant not draft precocious talent because of any perceeived risk though. That's loser thinking.

The first and foremost priority is not to blow top picks, ie select a player that will be valuable.Otherwise the pick is wasted.If a good player wants out you will get trade compensation.

They do need to create an environment that will allow some stability in their playing group, and make these guys want to stay. You'd be a fool to think Stewart Dew and the football department dont realise this.

Losing their captains might be a negative, but you can't tell from outside. It just might be an opportunity to improve the dynamics in the playing group. Sometimes when what your doing isn't working, change is a very good idea.

Normally yes - but in their current predicament, it actually makes the most sense to target players more likely to stay even if they are not the best player at that pick. What they did by paying a premium to get McLennan was wise as he is very likely to stay on with them and generally 1st and 2nd round talent is going to be good going forward

 

[liz]

Even on their own board one of their posters issued a warning to their own supporters about players saying one thing and doing another - Jack Scrimshaw could not have been more positive in what he said about going to GC and here we are at the end of the 2 year contract he is now playing for Hawthorn - a top 10 draftee lost after the 1st contract. In reality they can be as bullish as they want to be but if there is any substance to the SEN discussion, it looks like it is going to be a very hard road for them to travel to keep these guys

You've provided an argument against your own argument. If Scrimshaw was positive in what he said at the time about being drafted to Gold Coast (and I have no knowledge of what he said - I'm taking your word for that), how is Gold Coast meant to know who they should be drafting and who to avoid?

I suspect the majority of 18 year olds, if asked, would prefer to stay in their home state. Some feel more strongly than others, but given the choice most would stay rather than go interstate. The majority of those who are drafted interstate settle pretty well into their new clubs and realise moving interstate wasn't such a bad idea (and has benefits they didn't anticipate). A small number will really struggle, but some teenagers who are actually keen to join an interstate team (eg Josh Schache) struggle too.

It is literally impossible for a club to know for sure who will settle down and stay and who won't. No doubt Gold Coast assessed the maturity and personalities of those players they did draft and, based on what they can possibly know right now, and factored this into their decisions, together with their assessments of the talent levels of the players concerned.

 

[Crow till I die]

You've provided an argument against your own argument. If Scrimshaw was positive in what he said at the time about being drafted to Gold Coast (and I have no knowledge of what he said - I'm taking your word for that), how is Gold Coast meant to know who they should be drafting and who to avoid?

I suspect the majority of 18 year olds, if asked, would prefer to stay in their home state. Some feel more strongly than others, but given the choice most would stay rather than go interstate. The majority of those who are drafted interstate settle pretty well into their new clubs and realise moving interstate wasn't such a bad idea (and has benefits they didn't anticipate). A small number will really struggle, but some teenagers who are actually keen to join an interstate team (eg Josh Schache) struggle too.

It is literally impossible for a club to know for sure who will settle down and stay and who won't. No doubt Gold Coast assessed the maturity and personalities of those players they did draft and, based on what they can possibly know right now, and factored this into their decisions, together with their assessments of the talent levels of the players concerned.

Well sort of - but if you have guys that were openly saying they prefer to stay in their home state during the year - does that not start to send red flags? I know that the clubs scout these guys for years but surely a club in GC current predicament would have been very gun shy of picking not 1 but 2 guys that were speculated as being high flight risks. In much the same way that the draft pundits were all saying that if Bailey smith got past the bulldogs at 7 - the crows and GWS were both going to pass on him due to his preference to stay in Victoria

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Well sort of - but if you have guys that were openly saying they prefer to stay in their home state during the year - does that not start to send red flags? I know that the clubs scout these guys for years but surely a club in GC current predicament would have been very gun shy of picking not 1 but 2 guys that were speculated as being high flight risks. In much the same way that the draft pundits were all saying that if Bailey smith got past the bulldogs at 7 - the crows and GWS were both going to pass on him due to his preference to stay in Victoria

I suspect if we assessed Bailey Smith as the best available talent at a pick and didn't take him it wouldn't be that simple. Emma Quayle has the job of doing comprehensive background interviews with junior teamates, coaches etc.

A lot's been said about him but there's not a lot of substance. Maybe we would have drafted him, I dont know. If he does have OCD, Heater has openly admitted the same issue, and no doubt would have mentored him.

If there is substantial truth in the stories then it would be more character concerns I'd expect.

 

[liz]

Well sort of - but if you have guys that were openly saying they prefer to stay in their home state during the year - does that not start to send red flags? I know that the clubs scout these guys for years but surely a club in GC current predicament would have been very gun shy of picking not 1 but 2 guys that were speculated as being high flight risks. In much the same way that the draft pundits were all saying that if Bailey smith got past the bulldogs at 7 - the crows and GWS were both going to pass on him due to his preference to stay in Victoria

And what if the top 30 rated players in the draft all indicate they'd much rather stay in their home state? What are Gold Coast going to do then?

As per my previous post, a majority of 18 year old draftees think they want to stay in their home state but most adjust well if they do get drafted interstate.

 

[SnusCG]

You've provided an argument against your own argument. If Scrimshaw was positive in what he said at the time about being drafted to Gold Coast (and I have no knowledge of what he said - I'm taking your word for that), how is Gold Coast meant to know who they should be drafting and who to avoid?

I suspect the majority of 18 year olds, if asked, would prefer to stay in their home state. Some feel more strongly than others, but given the choice most would stay rather than go interstate. The majority of those who are drafted interstate settle pretty well into their new clubs and realise moving interstate wasn't such a bad idea (and has benefits they didn't anticipate). A small number will really struggle, but some teenagers who are actually keen to join an interstate team (eg Josh Schache) struggle too.

It is literally impossible for a club to know for sure who will settle down and stay and who won't. No doubt Gold Coast assessed the maturity and personalities of those players they did draft and, based on what they can possibly know right now, and factored this into their decisions, together with their assessments of the talent levels of the players concerned.

He was also contracted to stay for another two years, but we wanted to clear money off the books and he didn't look like cementing a position in the team any time soon (evidenced by him not getting a game despite how long our injury list [20 players by round 23] was) so we shopped him around to move his contract off our books

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

And what if the top 30 rated players in the draft all indicate they'd much rather stay in their home state? What are Gold Coast going to do then?

As per my previous post, a majority of 18 year old draftees think they want to stay in their home state but most adjust well if they do get drafted interstate.

Exactly. There would’ve been one player in the top 30 (McLennan) who would’ve wanted to go to the GC.

 

[Crow till I die]

Exactly. There would’ve been one player in the top 30 (McLennan) who would’ve wanted to go to the GC.

What about Chayce Jones - Tasmanian - crows took him at pick 8 so he must be pretty highly rated and no go home factor applies. From memory Jackson Hately indicated his preference was to move interstate - another top 10-12 player - there is 3 off the bat including McLennan that would happily move and 2 of them were top 10 rated

 

[HavUEvaSeenTheRain]

What about Chayce Jones - Tasmanian - crows took him at pick 8 so he must be pretty highly rated and no go home factor applies. From memory Jackson Hately indicated his preference was to move interstate - another top 10-12 player - there is 3 off the bat including McLennan that would happily move and 2 of them were top 10 rated

Do you think he would want to go to the GC? And do you think if he turns out any good other clubs still wouldn’t go just as hard for him?
GC are hardly going to pass up picks 2,3 and 6 so they can take Jones as their first pick.
I can’t recall anything about Hatley saying that but again the chance of losing the better kids is probably less then those lesser players ever moving their club up the ladder.

 

[Crow till I die]

Do you think he would want to go to the GC? And do you think if he turns out any good other clubs still wouldn’t go just as hard for him?
GC are hardly going to pass up picks 2,3 and 6 so they can take Jones as their first pick.
I can’t recall anything about Hatley saying that but again the chance of losing the better kids is probably less then those lesser players ever moving their club up the ladder.

you are missing the point - they could have traded a pick down for 2 picks - so instead of taking Rankine who may be gone in 2 years - they could have taken Jones AND Hately - both with what we see are less obvious go home issues than an indigenous player that has close family ties and bonds in Adelaide

Edit. And you make a harsh call on Jones who looks to be a terrific prospect and I think you will find he will develop into a top top player in his own right

 

[Peel67skin]

you are missing the point - they could have traded a pick down for 2 picks - so instead of taking Rankine who may be gone in 2 years - they could have taken Jones AND Hately - both with what we see are less obvious go home issues than an indigenous player that has close family ties and bonds in Adelaide

Edit. And you make a harsh call on Jones who looks to be a terrific prospect and I think you will find he will develop into a top top player in his own right

Why can't you see it the other way , if Rankine turn out to be extraordinary good and Jones become as good as Burton , GC can still ask for Jones and Draft pick in future trade eg
Wingard Trade ( Burton and pick 15) .I doubt Rankine could turn out to be as bad as Scrimshaw ( Tac Cup ) . Rankine Bias .

 

[Crow till I die]

Why can't you see it the other way , if Rankine turn out to be extraordinary good and Jones become as good as Burton , GC can still ask for Jones and Draft pick in future trade eg
Wingard Trade ( Burton and pick 15) .I doubt Rankine could turn out to be as bad as Scrimshaw ( Tac Cup ) . There is no guaranteed players stayed at the club , look at Rookie pick Saad.

It is not about seeing it the other way - it is about GC taking the wrong strategy in my opinion to this draft. I believe they have selected 2 players in Rankine and King that are every chance to bail on them early and if they do - even though they will get good recompense for them, they then have to start over again. Add to that if the SEN report is correct, clubs are already sounding Luko out. I can only see this draft ending in tears for them and it never had to be if they took a more conservative approach - bearing in mind they know better than almost anyone else what losing key players is like

 

[Peel67skin]

It is not about seeing it the other way - it is about GC taking the wrong strategy in my opinion to this draft. I believe they have selected 2 players in Rankine and King that are every chance to bail on them early and if they do - even though they will get good recompense for them, they then have to start over again. Add to that if the SEN report is correct, clubs are already sounding Luko out. I can only see this draft ending in tears for them and it never had to be if they took a more conservative approach - bearing in mind they know better than almost anyone else what losing key players is like

If they take the wrong stretegy the club recruiters lost their job not us . We can only judge them if Rankine and lukosius requested a trade , none of us can predict what will happen in the future , they( the recruiters) are responsible to get it right through interview and families visitation .

 

[Crow till I die]

If they take the wrong stretegy the club recruiters lost their job not us .

I know that but looking at it from a supporters perspective and I feel for you because yes your club has taken some exceptional players in the draft and they may be great - but I just have this feeling that it will be for a short window with your club and then they will be gone - this is just my opinion. In your position, I would rather my club focus on taking players that are the least likely to leave after what had happened so that going forward my club could build a base from which to build further from. Getting McLennan is a really good get because he wanted to be on the gold coast - he was worth what it cost you to get him in that perspective.

Hey, I get nervous each draft from a crows perspective when we draft the vic metro kids because immediately I think - are we going to be able to keep these kids?

 

[Doro]

I know that but looking at it from a supporters perspective and I feel for you because yes your club has taken some exceptional players in the draft and they may be great - but I just have this feeling that it will be for a short window with your club and then they will be gone - this is just my opinion. In your position, I would rather my club focus on taking players that are the least likely to leave after what had happened so that going forward my club could build a base from which to build further from. Getting McLennan is a really good get because he wanted to be on the gold coast - he was worth what it cost you to get him in that perspective.

Hey, I get nervous each draft from a crows perspective when we draft the vic metro kids because immediately I think - are we going to be able to keep these kids?

I'd be more worried about the Suns if they left the best junior talent in the country sitting there, in preference for the 'likely to stay' factor.

 

[Peel67skin]

I know that but looking at it from a supporters perspective and I feel for you because yes your club has taken some exceptional players in the draft and they may be great - but I just have this feeling that it will be for a short window with your club and then they will be gone - this is just my opinion. In your position, I would rather my club focus on taking players that are the least likely to leave after what had happened so that going forward my club could build a base from which to build further from. Getting McLennan is a really good get because he wanted to be on the gold coast - he was worth what it cost you to get him in that perspective.

Hey, I get nervous each draft from a crows perspective when we draft the vic metro kids because immediately I think - are we going to be able to keep these kids?

I don't know , IMO this thread is more about celebrating talent than who requested a trade the earliest.

 

[Crow till I die]

I'd be more worried about the Suns if they left the best junior talent in the country sitting there, in preference for the 'likely to stay' factor.

I wouldn't if they went with a strategy to obtain as many 1st round picks as possible targeting kids less likely to up sticks and leave - particularly after what they have just gone through.