Prediction 2019 Betting Thread

Nov 24, 2007
25,849
54,730
DTC Frat House
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Team Lambda Variant
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

222Capture.PNG
223Capture.PNG
224Capture.PNG


I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
 

John Who

Norm Smith Medallist
Apr 16, 2017
8,722
7,093
AFL Club
Adelaide
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
Imagine you gave this same advice last year, and everybody joined in on the betting. Your job as a Mod would have been in real jeopardy with us missing the Finals this year!

I like the odds for us making the 8 next year, just don’t like the words “shoe-in”.
 
Mar 21, 2016
73,840
116,755
Down South Corvus Tristis
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt, White Sox
Imagine you gave this same advice last year, and everybody joined in on the betting. Your job as a Mod would have been in real jeopardy with us missing the Finals this year!

I like the odds for us making the 8 next year, just don’t like the words “shoe-in”.
Pfft if Burton kept his I'm fairly sure deaneus would have kept his
 
Jun 7, 2011
58,373
60,426
Mount Gambier
AFL Club
Adelaide
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
 
Mar 21, 2016
73,840
116,755
Down South Corvus Tristis
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Sturt, White Sox
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
I like the jockeys name
 

huludicidal

Premiership Player
Jul 22, 2012
3,913
8,184
AFL Club
Adelaide
Other Teams
Philadelphia 76ers
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in

The bets I like there are:

Hawks to miss the 8 @ 2.05
Swans to miss the 8 @ 2.05
Adelaide to make the 8 @ 1.62
Essendon to make the 8 @ 1.62
North to miss the 8 @ 1.57
Melbourne to make top 4 @ 2.10

Then load up on us to win 14-15 games (have a bit on each one).


Needs bottom 4 and wooden spoon markets.
 

ET Sloane Home

Debutant
Nov 25, 2018
146
220
AFL Club
Adelaide
Not sure what agency that's with but Sportsbet has better odds for us to make the 8. $1.77 on there :)

I put 200 on us a few weeks ago at that price and it's still available. Got better odds for the premiership at $16 too.
 

ET Sloane Home

Debutant
Nov 25, 2018
146
220
AFL Club
Adelaide
Darcy Fogarty at $13 for the rising star too...

Players ahead are:
Setterfield - $7
Walsh - $9
Rankine - $10
Ratugolea - $11
 

Elite Crow

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts TheBrownDog
Mar 21, 2008
56,538
77,659
adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
I've got a couple couple of horses racing today in Alice, I type this from the luxuriant surrounds of The Oxford. Kummerlings in race 2 we're hoping will run second at a good price to Mandater that beat her by 4L last start. Bels lad in the last is a not bad e-w bet presently at $9 or so. Trainer would have preferred a couple more weeks which is a concern but other owner is pretty confident. He'll roll to the lead, turn in front and we'll see if he holds on. Won't be surprised if he's swallowed up by half a dozen over the last 50m though.
I want a refund, I put $1k on both
 

LittleCrowBoy

All Australian
Mar 4, 2017
811
1,259
AFL Club
Adelaide
I searched for the last thread and saw i'd started a few of these... whoops

Anyhoo, was looking through the markets and saw this

View attachment 591779 View attachment 591778 View attachment 591777

I like $1.62 for us to make the 8 - you'd think that's a shoe-in
Good job Deaneus.
I think this is the year a lot of us will have a casual bet on the Crows.
The only time having a bet is worthwhile is when your coming off a terrible year....circumstances have made the Crows look s**t ...but we have the knowledge a lot of others dont have (or dont want to acknowledge) that a turnaround is very close.
The facts are:
We were minor premiers in 2017
We were missing Smith & B Crouch for all of 2018 - Both elite players.
We then had a serious injury with Sloan.
Other key players - eg. Walker, Betts, Jacobs were carrying injuries through the year.
Lynch, Knight, M. Crouch and others picked up soft tissue injuries.
Late in the year we looked much better - Milera and Gooch both took big steps forward.
We only just missed the finals.

This year our fixture is MUCH more favorable.
Another preseason into Keith, Greenwood, Milera, CEY, Fog and Murphy adds much to our depth and ability to run out games.
All key players bar Talia look cherry ripe to have much better years.
Our list profile is in great shape and we are statistically ranked second in the league.
Players that have let us down in the past - Mackay, Atkins, Kelly....now have presure to retain their spots....and can be replaced by proven quality players.
The mind set in the playing group will switch to being the hunters...rather than the hunted.
We have a score to settle and passion will he high.
PLUS - the new rule changes around kickins and centre bounch zones may favor the Crows - long kicking, "slingshot" style of game from 2017.
Without a loose man in defence....how are opposition clubs going to stop Walker, Betts and Jenkins - 1 on 1 ???
We have the No. 1 ranked defense now....at a time when flooding will become much harder.

All this doesn't mean the Crows will win the flag in 2019.
BUT - our odds of making the top 8 are WAY better than $1.77 reflects.
Same with top 4
Same with winning the flag - odds of $16 with some agencies are crazy !!!
I'm holding fire till later in the preseason to make sure B.Crouch and other key players are fit and ready to go.
Then im going hard at top 4....with a decent amount on the flag.
The odds available on the Crows in 2019 are just too good to not have a dip !!!
 
Last edited:

Socrates2

Norm Smith Medallist
Aug 11, 2015
9,041
9,787
AFL Club
Richmond
I like Freo to make the eight but not at these odds,much better odds on betfair who have a close to 100% market whilst the corporate bookies take 10 to 17% before you start.
 

betterthanu

Norm Smith Medallist
Nov 29, 2006
5,108
3,824
ADL
AFL Club
Adelaide
Alex Carey is paying $9 for most runs in the ODI tomorrow on sportsbet and hes opening the batting. He should be half that. Go big
 

Elite Crow

Cancelled
30k Posts 10k Posts TheBrownDog
Mar 21, 2008
56,538
77,659
adelaide
AFL Club
Adelaide
? $1.70 on the app, in from $1.77 when I took it.

Also took Ess at $1.77 to make it, and Port at $1.70 to miss.

Edit: Port out to $1.75 to miss.
I found it under some obscure betting, team multis comes up as $1.80 and you can put a single bet on
 
Back