Prediction Who will finish higher in 2019 - Richmond, West Coast, Collingwood or Melbourne?

[captain blood 17]

Yes, I am assuming other posters have at least a modicum of intelligence.

You're not seeing it impartially if you don't think the current Richmond squad is the greatest in the history of the universe and will win the next 5 flags.

Please get with the program old boy.

Stop melting mate. It’s getting embarrassing. No one is saying that. You’re all over the shop. Almost hysterical.


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[juss]

The last ladder predictor I completed I had us sneaking in on percentage, but I took a pessimistic view and had us losing all of our clashes against Richmond, West Coast, Melbourne and Essendon when I completed it. Realistically we win three or four of those matches but in a worst case scenario where we drop 6 or more it only left four games leeway for the rest of the season to make it a twelve win year.

A couple of close losses or unexpected losses could realistically be a calamity to any of those sides. While I think that the quartet this thread is about are the four best sides in the competition I have no confidence that all four will finish top four. We’re in for a very interesting couple of seasons.

Yeh it wouldnt surprise me to see one miss top 4, but I'd still have all atleast top 6.

 

[Catsnlakers]

Funny I remember saying that about Collingwood in 2011. Competitive but off the pace in 2012 and then slipped back into the pack well and truly.

It happens fast. I wouldn’t be writing off Richmond’s final game of 2018 as just a bad night. The signs were there in the back stretch of the season.

That's a very good call, they had tight wins vs my club & the bulldogs late in the year, both of which the losing teams had late chances to win!.....And the Pies in 2011 were very similar, beat the Eagles just in the QF & ditto the Hawks in the PF.

 

[Occidental]

Only reason you have played the "most grandfinals" as the majority of them was when hitler was invading germany and even before.

Face facts, the pies have been a minnow club for awhile now with only the odd and short period of sucess.

Yeah Nah.
Since the end of WW2 there have been 73 seasons played.
Collingwood’s made finals 44 times to Richmond’s 18.
Collingwood’s played in 19 GF’s in those years to Richmond’s 8.

If you take out that little burst of the Hafey years, then Richmond’s only had another 3 GF’s over 65 years!

 

[Tarkyn_24]

That's a very good call, they had tight wins vs my club & the bulldogs late in the year, both of which the losing teams had late chances to win!.....And the Pies in 2011 were very similar, beat the Eagles just in the QF & ditto the Hawks in the PF.

We got out of jail against poor sides late in 2011 too, which is exactly what I likened Richmond’s late season home and away wins too. But to be honest I was drawing this comparison when Richmond supporters had crowned themselves mid-season this year, just as Collingwood supporters had in 2011.

I posted this on 22 August in this now locked thread: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...nst-collingwood.1187384/page-67#post-57498442

I remember Collingwood’s “choke” in 2011.

Turns out we just weren’t as far ahead of the pack as we thought we were, as proven by our performances in 2012 and 2013. If Richmond don’t win the premiership, I don’t think it’d be classed a choke. It’s just another team was able to perform and close the gap.

 

[Tiger71]

All true, apart from the fact Collingwood have played in a Grand Final more recently than Richmond, and in the AFL era (1990 onwards) we have played in 6 whilst Richmond have played in 1.

1990's as the start time, no surprise there lol

 

[Tiger71]

Either Richmond lost to a better team, or...

they lost to a worse team because the occasion got the better of them.

Which is it?

We played s**t. It happens. We move on and already are focused on 2019. Its funny, pies are still flapping about there one rare win against us.

Its quite funny lol

 

[Dazzler9]

We played s**t. It happens. We move on and already are focused on 2019. Its funny, pies are still flapping about there one rare win against us.

Its quite funny lol

Played s**t when the stakes were highest. Hmmmm

 

[Fadge]

Yeah Nah.
Since the end of WW2 there have been 73 seasons played.
Collingwood’s made finals 44 times to Richmond’s 18.
Collingwood’s played in 19 GF’s in those years to Richmond’s 8.

If you take out that little burst of the Hafey years, then Richmond’s only had another 3 GF’s over 65 years!

So not only did they have a 30+ year period of mediocrity between 1983 and 2016, but it sounds as though there was another 20 odd year period of mediocrity immediately following WW2?

Wowsers!

Edit: just checked, one solitary finals appearance between 1945 and 1965.

Richmond poster probably shouldn't have used WW2 as a baseline when attempting to bag Collingwood.

 

[Catsnlakers]

We played s**t. It happens. We move on and already are focused on 2019. Its funny, pies are still flapping about there one rare win against us.

Its quite funny lol

You played s**t, or you were just outplayed!?....I think most people ( bar tigers fans ) would say that on the night you were outplayed fair & square.

 

[VineyToClark]

Either Richmond lost to a better team, or...

they lost to a worse team because the occasion got the better of them.

Which is it?

Answer is B but the occasion didn't get the better of them they lost because of gastro.

 

[Catsnlakers]

they lost because of gastro.

Before or during the match?

 

[Carringbush2010]

Collingwood went 1-6 for the year against the other 3 sides that finished top 4. Still some work to do against the top sides.

That's very simplistic, you're only looking at ladder positions. Collingwood consistently beat teams in form at the time they played them like Ess and North for example and stopped a rampant dees after 6 wins on the trot.

You're not the only one, consistently you read many posters stating the same thing. Does form not matter?.................. um yes it does especially considering how close the whole comp is.

Guess finals wins don't count either.................... yeah a lot of work to do.

 

[Carringbush2010]

Collingwood didn't choke in the GF either.

They didn't, just because they lost doesn't mean they choked. Beaten by a superior team who was able to nullify the higher rated midfield and break down their opp pressure game, like they did with Richmond and Melbourne................... no other teams were able to do it.

TBH IMV the Pies got to the big dance probably a year or two early, still a lot of development there (yes it's an old list but oldest to youngest list is like not even 18 months).

For the thread title there are valid arguments for and against for all of the teams. I don't think anyone "choked" not even your mob, they just met a team that hit its peak on the night.

 

[Coach_Required]

Once again, this comment is a massive show of disrespect to the Eagles.....The reason the Pies lost from 5 goals in front, was simply because the Eagles outplayed them from quarter time... A choke is a loss from self-destruction ( Jana Novotna 1993 Wimbledon for eg ).... The Pies lost quite simply because the Eagles were a little better for longer!

I agree West Coast were the better team but you seem to forget that Collingwood did kick the first 2 goals into a minute of the last quarter and pretty much lead right up until the last minute and a half but did some really stupid things near the end that ended up costing them the match. So I actually believe a few Pie players did choke in the end.

 

[Captain_Bender]

Yeah Nah.
Since the end of WW2 there have been 73 seasons played.
Collingwood’s made finals 44 times to Richmond’s 18.
Collingwood’s played in 19 GF’s in those years to Richmond’s 8.

If you take out that little burst of the Hafey years, then Richmond’s only had another 3 GF’s over 65 years!

The only time Collingwood have been relevant after the 80s is when coached by Richmond player Mick Malthouse

 

[gopies1981]

Only reason you have played the "most grandfinals" as the majority of them was when hitler was invading Austria and even before.

Face facts, the pies have been a minnow club for awhile now with only the odd and short period of sucess.

In the last 60 years since 1959 Collingwood have been in the second most grand finals with 16. 2 win 2 draws and 12 losses. Hawthorn have been in the most 19!!

Not sure how you got your short period from. Also since World War II Collingwood have been bar far the most watch club in VFL/AFL history by over 5 million people. Essendon are second just in front of Carlton then Richmond .Not sure where your minnow club that you think Collingwood are comes from. Also in 2018 we were the most popular Victorian club according to Roy Morgan Research Poll and most popular afl club on social media.

You wish Collingwood was a minnow club but in fact we are a national football club with supporters all around the country. Something that Richmond wish they had

 

[gopies1981]

The only time Collingwood have been relevant after the 80s is when coached by Richmond player Mick Malthouse

Leigh Mathews and Collingwood’s 1990 premiership team say hello

 

[gopies1981]

So not only did they have a 30+ year period of mediocrity between 1983 and 2016, but it sounds as though there was another 20 odd year period of mediocrity immediately following WW2?

Wowsers!

Edit: just checked, one solitary finals appearance between 1945 and 1965.

Richmond poster probably shouldn't have used WW2 as a baseline when attempting to bag Collingwood.

Richmond = flop

 

[Captain_Bender]

Leigh Mathews and Collingwood’s 1990 premiership team say hello

Yet Leigh Matthew's couldn't lead Collingwood to finals wins in multiple years or could make finals the year after 1990 or lead Collingwood to a finals wins until 2002

At Collingwood's two lowest moment's in 1976 and 1999 it was a Richmond man who saved them

 

[Hannabal]

First of all, all along I have given my opinion on the thread title..... I hold no candle to any of the 4 clubs, but when you're comparing them surely the Prelim results are the most relevant!?....If they were close games I'd find it harder to choose, but when the margin is 10 goals at half time in one, & 44 points at half time in the other, that suggests quite clearly there are two standout teams IMO!

I don't see much relevance. A lot can happen in 12 months let alone in season.

West Coast lost a final to GWS by 11 goals in 2017 and win a flag the following year.

With regards to my team I expect May and Lever to be the two main defenders instead of Oscar McDonald (probably third tall) and Frost. A hopefully rejuvenated Kade Kolodjashnij is earmarked for a wing and I'm expecting further development from a host of sub 100 game players. Gawn should be resting forward and not filling the hole in defence. Not to mention a full season from Viney would help. If he played a full season last year we're not finishing 5th at the end of the H&A we're getting the double chance.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

I don't see much relevance. A lot can happen in 12 months let alone in season.

West Coast lost a final to GWS by 11 goals in 2017 and win a flag the following year.

With regards to my team I expect May and Lever to be the two main defenders instead of Oscar McDonald (probably third tall) and Frost. A hopefully rejuvenated Kade Kolodjashnij is earmarked for a wing and I'm expecting further development from a host of sub 100 game players. Gawn should be resting forward and not filling the hole in defence. Not to mention a full season from Viney would help. If he played a full season last year we're not finishing 5th at the end of the H&A we're getting the double chance.

I wouldn't read too much into the 2017 SF margin. I was there and I've never seen a group of mids look more flat. It was a classic case of having played their GF in that epic EF against Port I think.

Surprised you see Lever as a key defender and McDonald as the loose tall. I think he's a gifted player but a loose defender if I've ever seen one.

I rate May as a key defender. He's right up there as the guy you'd want under the ball coming into your back 50 in my view.

 

[Hannabal]

I wouldn't read too much into the 2017 SF margin. I was there and I've never seen a group of mids look more flat. It was a classic case of having played their GF in that epic EF against Port I think.

Surprised you see Lever as a key defender and McDonald as the loose tall. I think he's a gifted player but a loose defender if I've ever seen one.

I rate May as a key defender. He's right up there as the guy you'd want under the ball coming into your back 50 in my view.

Semantics re Lever. He's the intercept defender and yes McDonald the lock-down key tall. Lever is the better and more important player, which is why I lump in and May together and label McDonald the third tall. And Lever was good one v one last year until injured, which had previously been a criticism. CD ranked him 5th best "key defender" so I'm happy to use the term.

As for West Coast being "flat" ? What do you think the Melbourne mids were ? Round 26 of a long season caught up with our young inside mid brigade. We lost contested possession twice all year and one was in that game. They didn't plan to be flat in such an important game, but it can happen.

Excusing West Coast for their finals performance isn't going to wash with me when no-one will (rightfully) excuse ours.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Semantics re Lever. He's the intercept defender and yes McDonald the lock-down key tall. Lever is the better and more important player, which is why I lump in and May together and label McDonald the third tall. And Lever was good one v one last year until injured, which had previously been a criticism. CD ranked him 5th best "key defender" so I'm happy to use the term.

As for West Coast being "flat" ? What do you think the Melbourne mids were ? Round 26 of a long season caught up with our young inside mid brigade. We lost contested possession twice all year and one was in that game. They didn't plan to be flat in such an important game, but it can happen.

Excusing West Coast for their finals performance isn't going to wash with me when no-one will (rightfully) excuse ours.

Fair enough about the semantics thing.

I actually do give you a pass for the PF.

I predicted a dominant win for WC in the game day thread. I think your guys passed through a gate in the H/A win against WC and the belief was there after that, but it wasn't quite to the promised land.

To lock in finals and win two for a playing group that hadn't before was a great effort. Coming unstuck at some point for a young inexperienced group playing at a very high level of intensity was always likely.

If that belief at the pointy end is there next year you'll be serious contenders for the flag in my opinion. Your list is awesome and it's improved.

On BF you will always be trolled by opposition supporters, and they will always find something. If you went through the season undefeated people would claim you're potentially weak under pressure when challenged.

 

[Fadge]

Excusing West Coast for their finals performance isn't going to wash with me when no-one will (rightfully) excuse ours.

Given West Coast have backed up and won the flag, I think they have every right to be excused for their 2017 finals performance. Melbourne do the same in 2019, and we'll all excuse you for 2018.

As a Collingwood supporter, I just can't see it happening. Melbourne and Richmond hold no fears for us - I can't see either of them getting in the way of a flag tilt for the Pies in 2019.

It is West Coast, GWS and one or two other bolters from the pack (whether they be Essendon, Doggies, Adelaide or others) that we would be concerned about.