Draft Watcher Knightmare's 2018 AFL Draft Almanac

[Knightmare]

You look at the young midfield we’re building, it’s going to be bloody fierce in five years time.

Brisbane have a good young core coming through.

 

[Tbonefreo]

You cop a bit of heat KM but i love your work. Keep up the good work

 

[Knightmare]

A fun yearly activity showing how over a number of years I have stacked up v the pros: https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thre...v-hindsight-2018.1209520/page-8#post-59049825

Old editions and some hindsight can also be found here.

 

[Mango13]

why are all the discussions about 2019 draft kids all deleted





[QUOTE

SUBBED!

Hopefully all familiar names dominate the drafts.

#Operation41.

="Knightmare, post: 54567601, member: 105307"]Phantom Drafts:
5/10/2018: Pre trade period AFL Draft first round phantom draft: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24885902/afl-draft-first-round-phantom-goes-where

25/10/2018 2 round post trade period phantom draft: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ntom-************-knightmare-first-two-rounds

12/11/2018 3 round phantom draft: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...om-************-knightmare-first-three-rounds

22/11/2018 final phantom draft, every pick, every bid: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*********-knightmare-final-full-phantom-draft

AFL Draft Power Rankings:
April: 2/4/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-power-rankings-key-position-players-dominate

May: 6/5/2018 : http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...re-power-rankings-midfielders-make-their-move

June 8/6/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...jack-lukosius-reigns-supreme-new-faces-emerge

July 8/7/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...tmare-power-rankings-changes-18-championships

August 7/8/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...nkings-jack-lukosius-no-1-other-forwards-rise

September 2/9/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...e-power-rankings-unheralded-trio-break-top-20

October 9/10/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-power-rankings-sa-jet-surges-no-2

November 20/11/2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ower-rankings-caldwell-collier-dawkins-top-10

Weekly AFL Draft Wrap:
28/3/2018 - Focus on Xavier Duursma: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ightmare-wrap-xavier-duursma-shines-gippsland

5/4/2018 - Focus on Max King: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ightmare-wrap-max-king-next-great-key-forward

11/4/2018 - Focus on Tarryn Thomas: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...mber-tarryn-thomas-shines-north-melbourne-vfl

20/4/2018 - Focus on Mark Baker/Vic Metro v Vic Country trials: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...unheralded-talent-mark-baker-shines-vic-metro

25/4/2018 - Focus on Sam Walsh: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-knightmare-sam-walsh-stars-max-king-does-acl

2/5/2018 - Focus on Collingwood Academy prospect Atu Bosenavualagi: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ood-academy-prospect-atu-bosenavualagi-shines

16/5/2018 - Focus on Ely Smith: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*******-knightmare-contested-midfielders-rise

23/05/2018 - Focus on Curtis Taylor: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...ghtmare-calder-mid-showing-robbie-gray-traits

30/05/2018 - Focus on Riley Collier-Dawkins: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...******-knightmare-discovered-next-bontempelli

6/6/2018- Focus on the best prospect Jack Lukosius (the best I've seen in my 10 years of watching the u18s): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...mare-jack-lukosius-best-draft-prospect-decade

13/6/2018 - Focus on Chayce Jones - Round 1 Under-18 Championships: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...edy-tasmanian-chayce-jones-impresses-midfield

20/6/2018 - Focus on Xavier O'Halloran - Round 2 Under-18 Championships: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...e-knightmare-xavier-ohalloran-stars-vic-metro

27/6/2018 - Focus on Bailey Smith - Round 3 Under-18 Championships: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/23918862/afl-draft-wrap-************-knightmare-bailey-smith

4/7/2018 - Focus on Izak Rankine - Round 4 Under-18 Championships: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/23992221/afl-draft-wrap-************-knightmare-izak-rankine

11/7/2018 - Focus on Nick Blakey - Round 5 Under-18 Championships:
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24061726/afl-draft-wrap-************-knightmare-nick-blakey

18/7/2018 - Focus on Collingwood father-son prospect Will Kelly:
http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...lingwood-magpies-set-land-rising-key-defender

25/7/2018 - Focus on Bailey Williams: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...wrap-bailey-williams-first-round-calculations

1/8/2018 - Focus on Kyle Reid: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24248541/afl-draft-wrap-kyle-reid-all-round-key-defender

8/8/2018 - Focus on Stefan Radovanovic: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...g-stefan-radovanovic-jumps-draft-calculations

15/8/2018 - Focus on Jack Ross (APS v AGSV and U17 Futures): http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...akleigh-jack-ross-stakes-late-claim-draft-day

22/8/2018 - Focus on Noah Gown: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...gown-purple-patch-caught-recruiters-attention

29/8/2018 - Focus on Sam Sturt: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24506831/afl-draft-wrap-hayward-clone-sam-sturt-rising-rapidly

5/9/2018 - Focus on Connor Thar: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...onnor-thar-inspires-western-stunning-comeback

12/9/2018 - Focus on Ben King: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-confirms-top-10-prospects-formidable-display

19/9/2018 - Focus on Melbourne NGA prospect Toby Bedford: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24719704/afl-draft-wrap-toby-bedford-stands-sandringham

26/9/2018 - Focus on Mitch Grigg: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...de-crows-player-mitch-grigg-set-walk-back-afl

AFL Draft Previews/Reviews:
27/11/2017 - 2018 AFL Draft preview: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/21565075/knightmare-top-20-afl-draft-prospects-2018

12/03/2018 - JLT Wrap/Supercoach/AFLFantasy notes - rookies/breakout/returning 2018: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/22717282/afl-jlt-series-christoper-doerre-draftee-wrap

9/5/2018 - AFL father-son and academy prospects: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...******-knightmare-father-son-academy-analysis

17/8/2018 - My take on what Carlton should do with pick 1: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24360324/afl-draft-carlton-blues-do-pick-number-1

12/10/2018 - AFL Draft Combine Review: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/24952197/afl-draft-combine-wrap-sam-sturt-izak-rankine-shine

31/10/2018 - AFL Draft Club by Club List Needs Analysis: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-************-knightmare-club-club-list-needs

5/11/2018 - The best state leaguers outside the AFL: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25177491/afl-draft-best-state-league-options

8/11/2018 - 3 AFL draft trends: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25200247/afl-draft-key-trends-recent-drafts

14/11/2018 - Big Blue? Walsh at No.1 would be a mistake: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...carlton-blues-mistake-sam-walsh-jack-lukosius

18/11/2018 - 10 underrated prospects under 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25306097/afl-draft-underrated-bargains-2018-draft

21/11/2018 - Live chat: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25219507/afl-draft-live-qa-blog-************

23/11/2018 - First Round AFL Draft Review: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...-************-knightmare-first-round-analysis

24/11/2018 - AFL Draft Winners and Losers: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25356894/afl-draft-2018-************-winners-losers

26/11/2018 - 2019 draft top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25376887/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2019

AFL Trade/Free Agency content:
21/06/2018 - AFL Moneyball - best five trades and free agents from past five years and how to find them: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/...*****-knightmare-best-trades-free-agent-deals

18/10/2018 - AFL Trade/Free Agency Review: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25000696/afl-trade-period-************-club-club-gradings[/QUOTE]

 

[Knightmare]

why are all the discussions about 2019 draft kids all deleted

Nothing 2019 deleted: 26/11/2018 - 2019 draft top 20: http://www.espn.com.au/afl/story/_/id/25376887/afl-draft-************-top-20-prospects-2019

 

[Marcel Proust]

Do you have a source confirming this you can link?

New information to me. I was hearing Richmond might take if there.

iirc its from the richmond club dinner thing where they have fans pay to eat and talk about the draft and other matter.

if true, it would be fairly open information

 

[Savage Kent]

Hey KM, keen to get your thoughts on Bigoa Nyuon. What do you see as his strengths and weaknesses, as well as where he's likely to be drafted.

 

[Knightmare]

Hey KM, keen to get your thoughts on Bigoa Nyuon. What do you see as his strengths and weaknesses, as well as where he's likely to be drafted.

Very raw. But showed some signs in the U17 curtain raiser with three goals. It felt like an outlier performance as I hadn't seen anything like that before but a great glimpse of what he could do forward of centre, but that's something to watch for and hopefully we see more of in 2019.

What he does bring to the table is his high leap which makes him hard to beat at ruck contests.

What he'll need to improve is finding more of the ball around the ground and continue to build his endurance. Hopefully he can grow to 2m+ to be a viable ruckman and have more good moments as a forward with the more goals kicked the better.

 

[Blakey123]

Hey km what are your thoughts on Mitch O’Neill I feel as so he’s really underrated for what he’s accomplished this year

 

[Bicks]

 

[Blakey123]

Pretty sure he’s not part of there NGA

 

[Knightmare]

Hey km what are your thoughts on Mitch O’Neill I feel as so he’s really underrated for what he’s accomplished this year

It depends on how underrated you consider underrated.

I'd rate O'Neill around 10.

I'd say anyone rating O'Neil top 5 is overrating him. Anyone with him outside certainly the top 20 at the moment I'd say underrating.

 

[briztoon]

Hey km what are your thoughts on Mitch O’Neill I feel as so he’s really underrated for what he’s accomplished this year

This feels like déjà vu.

Sure the same question was asked repeatedly of several draft watchers a couple of weeks ago.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Just as a recap.. which of the All Australians from the U18’s Champs didn’t get picked.

They next question is why?

 

[Knightmare]

Just as a recap.. which of the All Australians from the U18’s Champs didn’t get picked.

They next question is why?

Kyle Reid was the only draft eligible talent overlooked top of mind and he was unlucky with a few clubs considering him - Hawthorn may have taken him had Koschitzke not been there, Collingwood had they had more picks are another maybe.

Decent but not outstanding key defender. Pretty good at most things but not outstanding at any one thing. Only average height which some might hold against him at 193cm for a KPD but I don't consider that too small.

I'd like to see him go around again and push to get drafted.

One of those unlucky draft snubs - and there are always a few and sometimes as with Reid it's not that there are warning signs or any particular reason you wouldn't draft him - but sometimes as with Reid you can get someone else you don't expect to be there or you don't have the picks to have room to add him.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Kyle Reid was the only draft eligible talent overlooked top of mind and he was unlucky with a few clubs considering him - Hawthorn may have taken him had Koschitzke not been there, Collingwood had they had more picks are another maybe.

Decent but not outstanding key defender. Pretty good at most things but not outstanding at any one thing. Only average height which some might hold against him at 193cm for a KPD but I don't consider that too small.

I'd like to see him go around again and push to get drafted.

One of those unlucky draft snubs - and there are always a few and sometimes as with Reid it's not that there are warning signs or any particular reason you wouldn't draft him - but sometimes as with Reid you can get someone else you don't expect to be there or you don't have the picks to have room to add him.

Stack? I know he was trialling with Richmond under a funny new rule! Not sure they have signed him up yet.

What under agers made All Australian?

 

[THE_GUN]

Stack? I know he was trialling with Richmond under a funny new rule! Not sure they have signed him up yet.

What under agers made All Australian?

Sydney Stack looks to be going really well at richmond prior to the Xmas break
Living with Dimma & family , Besties with Rioli , Chol , Bolton and mixing in well
Training extremely hard and giving it a real crack from the looks of it

He will be back Jan 7 then go to gold coast camp and the next month after that will tell if he is upto it but if i was a betting man all things going well looks to be 80% going to be Rookied by the Tigers

 

[Knightmare]

Stack? I know he was trialling with Richmond under a funny new rule! Not sure they have signed him up yet.

What under agers made All Australian?

Mitch O'Neill/Will Gould/Jeremy Sharp all made the team - see my 2019 preview on page one for more on them.

Stack wasn't an U18 All Australian. Was actually a late inclusion for the WA side - not selected for the first game.

 

[Knightmare]

Also for any Dogs fans wanting an update. Some inside scoop I received from one of the players mid December.

I was discussing footy/sports more generally and then go onto the subject of Bailey Smith after making the comment to him that he's the best mid in the pool. I was given a rave review on how Smith is going so far. Impressed by work ethic and attitude. Doing all the training and staying back late doing extras. As professional as he has seen and like he has never seen at that age. Also was really impressed by the size of him - strong through the legs and strong body. Looks ready to go to him.

And anyone who has followed Smith/his story shouldn't really be surprised by any of this. It's really just confirmation of what has been said already.

One player injuries permitting you can expect to see early and often in 2019 you'd imagine.

 

[Walkingwounded]

Stack wasn't an U18 All Australian. Was actually a late inclusion for the WA side - not selected for the first game.

Pretty sure Stack was on the bench of All Australian team.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-05/sa-stars-dominate-u18-all-australian-side

 

[Knightmare]

Pretty sure Stack was on the bench of All Australian team.

http://m.afl.com.au/news/2018-07-05/sa-stars-dominate-u18-all-australian-side

My mistake. Looked through the team and missed him. Few too many drinks yesterday evidently.

 

[Walkingwounded]

My mistake. Looked through the team and missed him. Few too many drinks yesterday evidently.

Enjoy NYE then.

 

[northeasttiger]

Thanks for sharing your insights and opinions with us Knightmare during 2018 and look forward to the 2019 season.

 

[Richo83]

Sorry, I've been on holidays, but whilst this convo has gone cold, I must respond.

1. More blue chip guys is always good. The more the better. I also do feel the equation heavily involves bringing in the most talent, but talent that fits and compliments the talent already there - particularly during the trade/free agent period this is the way to go about things to maximise results. Depth is a complete waste of time. The best depth is in the form of projected future best 22 players coming through and pushing the established guys and making a selection dilemma. To find those latter half of best 22 types, the state leagues are substantially underutilised and are ideal compliments for your blue chip types and a route Carlton would be wise to explore with much greater frequency.

I agree that there's no point drafting players when you've been struck by injury. But Carlton need to develop their midfield depth throughout the best 22. One of the biggest problems with Carlton is that they've generally been teams with a few stars surrounded by duds. They've picked early but it hasn't gotten anywhere because as soon as the ball is out of the hands of their stars, nothing happens. And given AFL games these days often resemble a very structured elongated pass the parcel routine, the importance of having a 22 which is competent in working as a cog top to bottom seems really important. Collingwood managed to get back up the ladder not because their superstars improved, but because they replaced duds with better cogs.

Let me put it this way, if we're trying to maximise talent, then sometimes picking say pick 3 and some later state leaguer pick can yield less talent than say pick 12 and 19. And I suspect that Carlton believe that their recruiting standards are improving so they're better able to pick around picks 10-20. I suspect the league is getting better at recruiting in general, meaning picking early isn't such a bad prospect as it used to be.

And one of the problems with just relying on blue chip picks is that the battle for the other spots in the team can easily be won by worser players, and without depth, there's little competition, leading to complacency. It's clear Silvagni wants to pump the club with kids and really challenge the retreads, which were probably picked because they found no-one else better (although I'm not convinced he made all the right moves there and I think the retreads were a mistake).

As for the state leagues idea, I agree, they should be also using the state leagues. However, I wouldn't use the state leagues in the top 20. For me this is an argument about whether to pick kids at (let's guess) 3 or 12 and 19. Absolutely they should be picking state leaguers later.

2. I haven't followed where people project Adelaide for 2019 but they're a 1-14 team (with that whole group wide open and no standouts such is the dynamic of the competition at the moment). This year they dropped off with the losses of Lever/Cameron hurting structurally and injuries hurting more than should have been the case. I happen to disagree on their midfield - I feel that's a real strong point. It's for mine one of the better 2-3 in the competition with only Collingwood and probably Geelong having better.

I tend to agree with the AFL website (and I don't always do) that the crows' midfield sits around ninth, making it fairly mediocre. It lacks genuine explosive pace or creativity. The Crouch brothers are fairly similar to each other and guys like Laird and Atkins are fairly outside players. Sloane is a gun but they went 7-5 with him last year and 5-5 without him. They know how to win at home, but the only crow I'd consider in the top 15 midfielders in the game is Sloane, and he's behind a few IMO.

3. I feel Hannebery helps St Kilda and they've had their injuries this year. I don't feel they're rise, but they have a shot at being more competitive. Brisbane I feel will take another step forward - their young core is coming together and with the leadership of Hodge that group is fast-tracking in a hurry with their second half of the season suggesting they aren't far away from a top 8 berth. Only Gold Coast and maybe St Kilda I have lower than Carlton. Those other bottom sides I don't consider all that bad, with the competition 1-15 likely to be pretty even in 2019. Carlton will make up ground and likely improve by around 10%-15% on the ladder which is still a nice stride, but not enough to get Carlton all that far back into the game with regard to say top 8 contention.

If I'm guessing. Adelaide get pick 3 (sorry Saints fans - could go either way), Carlton get pick 10 from Adelaide - though it could be a lot worse. To put some hypothetical names to the picks. I might be able to get Thomas Green from GWS at 3 (who is a Cripps level stoppage beast) - and GWS aren't certain to match. Or if they do, Sam Flanders or Noah Anderson depending on availability with Matthew Rowell if things hold as they are probably going 1. I'd take those guys over say Stocker and a say Caleb Serong who could be a best available around that pick gained from Adelaide to put a name to a pick.
I really like that top 4 - not ordered and probably won't be the order in my power rankings next year as I don't want to give that away just yet - but any of Rowell/Green/Flanders/Anderson I'd place a very high value premium on in my own mind. Others may like Taheny/Stephens from SA or H.Young. But that top 4 of mine, I'd be incredible keen to get my hands on. Much more so than Stocker or anyone likely available around 10.

It's early days to be speculating on where these kids will finish. Let's say Adelaide do get Carlton's pick 3, Carlton already have pick 19, and let's say Adelaide end up 6th, that's pick 12.

AFL draft calculator tells me that's a wash. I know pick three sounds exciting but even in the contemporary era of increasingly scientific drafting, there are early picks who aren't working out.

Walsh isn't a dud. He can play. No one will compare him to Fiora.

No exact comparison, but it's more like a Haselby/Pavlich situation to reference the '99 draft. I feel Walsh will have more lasting power than Haselby. But that's not far off the talent disparity I see.

Walsh may not be the best mid in the draft let alone the best pick while Lukosius can be that all time special kpp.

I feel like Haselby's career fizzled out because he was playing in a terrible team in a terrible organisation. Carlton may be in a similar situation, but I'm not sure Haselby's career can be dismissed or accounted for that easily. I also believe Fremantle picked Hasleby early because he was a local at a time when Fremantle were fairly weak in terms of being able to hold onto Victorians and players from other non-WA leagues. Whereas it seems like Carlton picked Walsh because they see him as a tent-peg, a franchise player. I also think it's easier to scheme against a midfielder than a KPP, and KPPs often shine in the juniors because most KPDs are still awkward kids who don't have natural instincts and are often failed forwards. It seems to take a lot of time for KPDs to find their feet nowerdays as many of them are projects, picked because they're tall but aren't forwards.

 

[Knightmare]

Sorry, I've been on holidays, but whilst this convo has gone cold, I must respond.



I agree that there's no point drafting players when you've been struck by injury. But Carlton need to develop their midfield depth throughout the best 22. One of the biggest problems with Carlton is that they've generally been teams with a few stars surrounded by duds. They've picked early but it hasn't gotten anywhere because as soon as the ball is out of the hands of their stars, nothing happens. And given AFL games these days often resemble a very structured elongated pass the parcel routine, the importance of having a 22 which is competent in working as a cog top to bottom seems really important. Collingwood managed to get back up the ladder not because their superstars improved, but because they replaced duds with better cogs.

Let me put it this way, if we're trying to maximise talent, then sometimes picking say pick 3 and some later state leaguer pick can yield less talent than say pick 12 and 19. And I suspect that Carlton believe that their recruiting standards are improving so they're better able to pick around picks 10-20. I suspect the league is getting better at recruiting in general, meaning picking early isn't such a bad prospect as it used to be.

And one of the problems with just relying on blue chip picks is that the battle for the other spots in the team can easily be won by worser players, and without depth, there's little competition, leading to complacency. It's clear Silvagni wants to pump the club with kids and really challenge the retreads, which were probably picked because they found no-one else better (although I'm not convinced he made all the right moves there and I think the retreads were a mistake).

As for the state leagues idea, I agree, they should be also using the state leagues. However, I wouldn't use the state leagues in the top 20. For me this is an argument about whether to pick kids at (let's guess) 3 or 12 and 19. Absolutely they should be picking state leaguers later.



I tend to agree with the AFL website (and I don't always do) that the crows' midfield sits around ninth, making it fairly mediocre. It lacks genuine explosive pace or creativity. The Crouch brothers are fairly similar to each other and guys like Laird and Atkins are fairly outside players. Sloane is a gun but they went 7-5 with him last year and 5-5 without him. They know how to win at home, but the only crow I'd consider in the top 15 midfielders in the game is Sloane, and he's behind a few IMO.



It's early days to be speculating on where these kids will finish. Let's say Adelaide do get Carlton's pick 3, Carlton already have pick 19, and let's say Adelaide end up 6th, that's pick 12.

AFL draft calculator tells me that's a wash. I know pick three sounds exciting but even in the contemporary era of increasingly scientific drafting, there are early picks who aren't working out.



I feel like Haselby's career fizzled out because he was playing in a terrible team in a terrible organisation. Carlton may be in a similar situation, but I'm not sure Haselby's career can be dismissed or accounted for that easily. I also believe Fremantle picked Hasleby early because he was a local at a time when Fremantle were fairly weak in terms of being able to hold onto Victorians and players from other non-WA leagues. Whereas it seems like Carlton picked Walsh because they see him as a tent-peg, a franchise player. I also think it's easier to scheme against a midfielder than a KPP, and KPPs often shine in the juniors because most KPDs are still awkward kids who don't have natural instincts and are often failed forwards. It seems to take a lot of time for KPDs to find their feet nowerdays as many of them are projects, picked because they're tall but aren't forwards.

Where our views differ I suspect is in the ease with which good players can be had. You've got veterans who are undervalued each year getting delisted or forced into retirement too soon + our valuations on what we feel picks in the top 4 are worth by contrast to picks outside the top 10 which can be great but is ultimately hit or miss if you go through the selections.

I'd take pick 3 and a state leaguer later on ahead of picks 12 and 19 most years. It would have to be a flat top end or have someone sliding I'd rate around 3 to not want to go that route.

You can get good players as rookies if you have a good eye and look to the state leagues. You can also get good unwanted talent on the trade table/free agency. I could go fully into a strategy around maximisation of A-graders but then get the likes of Jarryd Lyons (delisted free agent), Daniel Menzel (delisted free agent), Aaron Hall (late pick), Tom Scully (late pick). Then the likes of Brendon Goddard and Michael Barlow are prematurely forced into retirement (and usually there are a lot more of those veterans who are asked to hang up the boots too soon).

If you look at drafts in hindsight, there have been countless state leaguers/mature agers who have proven worthy of top 20 picks. Was Tom Stewart worth a top 20 pick in hindsight? What about Tim Kelly? If you go through the past five drafts, or at least in doing that myself, each year there are a solid roughly five I'd include inside that top 20. So I can't on that basis dismiss that possibility if they're that good, unless you can get them later which for the most part you can.

On Collingwood. They didn't do a lot to their list in the 2017 offseason. They made what is looking like a bad trade for Sam Murray but drafted well with Jaidyn Stephenson and Brody Mihocek successes and Flynn Appleby looking like a possible role player. What was the most pronounced change for them was their movement from being a short kicking team that moves it slowly to a team that look on the game and moved it quicker in 2018.

I can't say I agree with you or AFL.com on a midfield rating of 9th for Adelaide. Sloane, Gibbs and the Crouch brothers are all excellent. Without going through names and just thinking top of mind, Sloane a best 15 mid in the game, Gibbs top 30, M.Crouch top 40 and B.Crouch is an excellent 4th midfielder. Laird is a best 40 mid when he goes through there. I wouldn't be calling them one paced. Seedsman's outside run is superb. Greenwood has some serious ball winning power. Collingwood and Geelong are the only two midfields top of mind I'd say are stronger than Adelaide's, probably GWS' also, maybe Richmond's and Melbourne's. But Adelaide I have in the conversation with those clubs on how good their midfield is and I'd need a fair bit of time to order that top group in a way I'd be satisfied with doing.

On Carlton. if you look at their list. They don't really have that many blue chip players. It's really just Cripps. Then if he was healthy Docherty if he was to regain his 2017 form would be the other. Charlie Curnow is really good. But Carlton need a lot more star power than they have. Much of it could form from their up and coming youth. They have a lot of good young talent coming through. But it's not there yet.

Conceptually the list strategy I'm seeing at the moment that would have me tearing my hair out is Gold Coast's. It's the recruitment of unwanted AFL players who are worse than a number of state leaguers who aren't on AFL lists. I've liked a lot of their drafting over the years, but their trading and then lack of veterans added, lack of quality players from other lists (Weller isn't quality and certainly wasn't worth what was paid). Use those early picks to get stars (and they got Lukosius/Rankine as they should have). But then they needed to go out and get that Scully, get a Hannebery or similar and keep guys who can play - Lyons/Hall. You can't just let talent go for nothing (voluntarily) and not go get something yourself. You need to keep your talent and go get more each offseason to improve your list.

Paul Hasleby was fine. Sub-optimal as with almost every pick in hindsight. Fizzled out early but his first 10 seasons was very good. 200+ games with very good production isn't a result where you'd look at it as a bad result.

With pick 3 = Rankine, Dow, McCluggage, Mills and Brayshaw these past five years. That could be five A-graders. I like the early picks again this year and I feel there are players of that quality who could be had with that selection again this year. There is a top 4 at this stage this year I feel good about on around that level.