No idea wtf all that is about.
Commented in regard to the Northern Beaches.
With regard to the game on the North Shore in general, it isnt progressing much. Certainly not with the kids.
All codes develop sympathetic stats. RL is booming (according to RL), Soccer is killing it (according to Soccer), Aussie rules is making inroads (according to AR). Stats have been meaningless for as long as i can recall re footy in Sydney. It is always about to take off or is somehow booming.
AFL's biggest problem is still the same. They see it as a fabulous product. WE luv watching it....WHY ? coz we were brought up with it and understand the rules.
To New Australians and their children, as well as 1st generation....its not worth bothering with. Far too complicated with far too many rules. The average joe not brought up with it sees it as novelty value only...good athletes, can be fun to watch, but no representative footy and they cant be arsed having to sit an exam just to understand what they are witnessing. Plus the rules change all the time.
Soccer is easy, soccer is simple, soccer is safe for the kiddies, soccer is killing every other code in NSW no matter what worthless "stats" can be fudged. Just the way it is.
No doubt you make valid points about the challenges of a complex game taking off in non traditional areas and certainly all sporting bodies talk up their current health
The growth in participation among juniors in Sydney this decade is undeniable though with the number of teams pretty much doubling. This can be attested by looking at the actual ladders http://aflsj.com.au/fixtures-results/sydney-harbour-fixtures/
Now, I'm sure that the northern beaches are likely not at the core of that growth but certainly the north shore seems to be heavily represented.
Though I personally think that the AFL will be well served by two clubs in Sydney at least to the middle of this century, having well resourced professional football clubs acting on a region is self evidently a powerful force in the longer term growth and sustainability of a game in that region. I'm guessing the Swans have a roughly similar geographical "footprint" to Sydney FC but they blow them out of the water across every metric.
I think the AFL understand very well the challenges of changing sporting preferences hence the massive investment in school age engagement in NSW and QLD and the expansion clubs