Racing January Daily Punt - It's Magic (Millions) You Know

[IKnowtheDog]

Faatinah is in the third race at Meydan this morning

 

[FallingLiefs]

Perth Cup.

genuinely expect Action to blow close to race start and i could have him around 8's. and i'm an action fan too.

 

[HeathySure]

A lot of punters complaining about soft tracks.

In my opinion the negatives of betting on soft tracks is actually the form turnarounds, some horses improve some go backward. If it’s consistently a soft 5 the backward horses will just be an inferior horse. Just like heavy 10 mudders who improve a bit in the wet and don’t run the same in the dry are considered inferior. (Jungle edge I’m looking at you).

Within 2 years the baseline will be established punter confidence will be high in soft 5’s but weaken when the track gets firmer or towards the bottomless end of the scale. Same as dirt v turf. If it were a more common occurrence of horses going dirt to turf and back there would be a huge thing to ban dirt, because it’s just a fact horses will run in completely different positions week to week on a different surface against the same field and that’s the crux of low confidence on a worse surface.

Totally disagree with this (but unlike Paris i wont insult you just put my argument up!)
First of all stats say horses get injured more on wet tracks rather than dry (Rob Waterhouse has some stats out there confirming this).
We are in Australia, to get a track with give is practically impossible without watering. We have had years and years of evidence that watering causes biases, which in turn causes form anomalies. This is not just at one track, its at all tracks.
20 years ago in general we had no such problems, We curated tracks to nature, I am not going to say that horses didn't break down then, because they did, but they were hardier as they were mostly Australian bred, Since the breeding industry decided to breed inferior horses they now arent able to handle Hard tracks like they used to. The only reason we started watering tracks was because overseas trainers complained about our tracks being hard, Then we brought over all these 2nd rate European bred stayers and now that is ingrained and the horses are just soft. Japan dont have problems racing on hard tracks, so i cant see why we cant.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Totally disagree with this (but unlike Paris i wont insult you just put my argument up!)
First of all stats say horses get injured more on wet tracks rather than dry (Rob Waterhouse has some stats out there confirming this).
We are in Australia, to get a track with give is practically impossible without watering. We have had years and years of evidence that watering causes biases, which in turn causes form anomalies. This is not just at one track, its at all tracks.
20 years ago in general we had no such problems, We curated tracks to nature, I am not going to say that horses didn't break down then, because they did, but they were hardier as they were mostly Australian bred, Since the breeding industry decided to breed inferior horses they now arent able to handle Hard tracks like they used to. The only reason we started watering tracks was because overseas trainers complained about our tracks being hard, Then we brought over all these 2nd rate European bred stayers and now that is ingrained and the horses are just soft. Japan dont have problems racing on hard tracks, so i cant see why we cant.

i agree with all of this and i saw the rob waterhouse stats. it's just a lot of people saying don't bet on wet tracks don't bet on them due to form turnarounds. Also watering can surely be improved to create less bias in theory bias there is just uneven drying or uneven wetness. i'm no groundskeeper but surely theres a point if they're serious about erasing bias to fix this watering because it's still consistent today.

breeding is will continue to make horses more delicate until the end of time because as incorrect as Danzig, Halo and Danehill were people want horses with them in their pedigree and want them inbred to them for ability because sore horses can be managed and slow ones don't pay bills.

personally i like good 4's as long as they're genuine good 4's its almost the perfect surface.

 

[HeathySure]

for what its worth i have always found betting on heavier tracks a godsend. You can practically dismiss 75% of the field, Its just those that don't do proper form study that get upset over them. (eg Favourite backers)
Synthetic tracks suck balls and ruin form lines for me but i do recognise that there are horses that are specialists and can be made money out of. Give me heavy tracks over synthetic any day.

 

[FallingLiefs]

for what its worth i have always found betting on heavier tracks a godsend. You can practically dismiss 75% of the field, Its just those that don't do proper form study that get upset over them. (eg Favourite backers)
Synthetic tracks suck balls and ruin form lines for me but i do recognise that there are horses that are specialists and can be made money out of. Give me heavy tracks over synthetic any day.

yes, i think racing as a whole needs to satisfy the mug punter first and that would be satisfied within 2 years where tracks are consistently the same rating. anyone complaining about 0.25L-1L bias should be doing the form better.

racing is inherently unfair with advantages and disadvantages everywhere it's the owners who really get done over by bias, punters have no excuses not to analyse the negatives and positives better. owners/trainers can't choose the horse their on or the position they can get to. and who's asking for softer tracks? owners/trainers.

 

[HeathySure]

yes, i think racing as a whole needs to satisfy the mug punter first and that would be satisfied within 2 years where tracks are consistently the same rating. anyone complaining about 0.25L-1L bias should be doing the form better.

racing is inherently unfair with advantages and disadvantages everywhere it's the owners who really get done over by bias, punters have no excuses not to analyse the negatives and positives better. owners/trainers can't choose the horse their on or the position they can get to. and who's asking for softer tracks? owners/trainers.

i sometimes wonder if an owner can sue the track manager for making it impossible for his horse to win because of track bias (2015 cox plate 2016 Melb Cup carnival). I wonder if anyone will ever test the boundaries

 

[FallingLiefs]

i sometimes wonder if an owner can sue the track manager for making it impossible for his horse to win because of track bias (2015 cox plate 2016 Melb Cup carnival). I wonder if anyone will ever test the boundaries

nah they provide the surface, you choose your horse to start there knowing well in advance the track it is at. bias can mostly be mother natures fault anyway.

 

[iluvparis]

Perth Cup.

genuinely expect Action to blow close to race start and i could have him around 8's. and i'm an action fan too.

View attachment 601130

Not sure if handicap or SWP race

 

[iluvparis]

The 'bias are ok' crowd overlook the fact that for many horse racing fans they want to see the best horses all given every possible chance to win on any given day.

It's not all about the punt.

Also lol at Heathsy thinking that having a few superior European stayers imported over the last 5 years has some how made our entire racing population soft.

FWIW my personal preference is for no irrigation and to race on the tracks as they are - if you think its too firm by all means scratch your horse.

 

[FallingLiefs]

The 'bias are ok' crowd overlook the fact that for many horse racing fans they want to see the best horses all given every possible chance to win on any given day.

It's not all about the punt.

Also lol at Heathsy thinking that having a few superior European stayers imported over the last 5 years has some how made our entire racing population soft.

FWIW my personal preference is for no irrigation and to race on the tracks as they are - if you think its too firm by all means scratch your horse.

the "water the track crowd" will say you won't get the best horses racing on any given day if they break down at 2.

 

[FallingLiefs]

and euro's are weakening our racing population, they're making them faster but weaker.

different looking and conformed horses altogether.

 

[iluvparis]

and euro's are weakening our racing population, they're making them faster but weaker.

different looking and conformed horses altogether.

Horse evolution must work faster than I thought

and as heath said - the Japanese have no issue producing decent horses on endlessly hard tracks

 

[iluvparis]

the "water the track crowd" will say you won't get the best horses racing on any given day if they break down at 2.

Then don't start them at 2

 

[HeathySure]

There was no outcry until the Europeans started sooking after their horses finished tailed off on hardish tracks, They threatened not to come so the VRC decided to appease them. Then Makybe Diva happened Iwho was European bred) then it went out of control
so it was the Europeans who caused this.
if they cant run on a fast track stay home.

 

[IKnowtheDog]

94 with Vintage Crop was when the issue of watering first occurred. Before that it used to be the classic ‘sprinkler accident’

 

[iluvparis]

94 with Vintage Crop was when the issue of watering first occurred. Before that it used to be the classic ‘sprinkler accident’

I thought 94 was pretty soft but memory could be wrong. I really remember it kicking off big time in 02 with Vinnie Roe

 

[HeathySure]

Who backed the 1st 2 winners at Tamworth today
1st winner 100/1 (only 20s on Victab) 2nd winner 70s #summer racing
first winner was in a field of 5,.. 2nd horse a moral beaten looking at replay, This happens a lot cos the jocks let the leaders go slow so horses dont drop off and the ones behind cannot get out. that my crackpot theory anyway
I

 

[iluvparis]

Action getting the full Pike treatment in Perth Cup betting at the moment

 

[iluvparis]

Who backed the 1st 2 winners at Tamworth today
1st winner 100/1 (only 20s on Victab) 2nd winner 70s #summer racing
first winner was in a field of 5,.. 2nd horse a moral beaten looking at replay, This happens a lot cos the jocks let the leaders go slow so horses dont drop off and the ones behind cannot get out. that my crackpot theory anyway
I

You'd be annoyed if you took the Vic tote price on the first winner

 

[HeathySure]

You'd be annoyed if you took the Vic tote price on the first winner

knowing Tab shenanigans it would have been 20s on the VOPs but upped to 100/1 after the race!

 

[FallingLiefs]

Action repetitively shortening.

hate to get all Paris on this but has not beaten Mississippi Delta this prep, is 1W-2L with Cappo D'oro and is coming out of the B grade form. Yes he looks a genuine mile and a half horse and will probably somehow be in perfect position despite being hard ridden last in most races in the lead up, but even money....

 

[iluvparis]

Action repetitively shortening.

hate to get all Paris on this but has not beaten Mississippi Delta this prep, is 1W-2L with Cappo D'oro and is coming out of the B grade form. Yes he looks a genuine mile and a half horse and will probably somehow be in perfect position despite being hard ridden last in most races in the lead up, but even money....

Don't worry mate - I'll be on so the result will be M Delta by 5 hard held.

 

[Hamingja]

Lot of staying blood in the Perth Cup.......might back Khartoum for the lols.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Don't worry mate - I'll be on so the result will be M Delta by 5 hard held.

On Action?

Would make me feel better if so, only one we agreed was unders this summer bolted in.