Triple J Hottest 100 - 2019

[ronpingwins]

Any value in the 2 new markets on Sportsbet?

No crazy odds, think they are protecting themselves better this year, but might have the favourites wrong though. LAV probably two locks with Ocean Alley/NBT, doesn't seem to be a third in the mix so not sure why that is fav, would get on two at $4.50. Aus songs possibly value for 8 or 9 at $6.50 and $10, currently 8 but you'd say TIA is the only lock and Mantra looks vulnerable while Dean Lewis has to come back in. Plenty of variables still but enough Aus songs around that 8 should be favourite and 9 a sneaky chance.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

8 Aussie songs down to $3. Someone smashed it.

 

[Gibbsy]

Hopefully there’s some decent BYO odds otherwise they’re making it very appealing to just sit it all out. Crummy odds so far.

If I had to pick one it would be Like People (DZ Deathrays) to finish between #11-20 at $2.75. I don’t see it holding top 10

 

[jack 23]

No crazy odds, think they are protecting themselves better this year, but might have the favourites wrong though. LAV probably two locks with Ocean Alley/NBT, doesn't seem to be a third in the mix so not sure why that is fav, would get on two at $4.50. Aus songs possibly value for 8 or 9 at $6.50 and $10, currently 8 but you'd say TIA is the only lock and Mantra looks vulnerable while Dean Lewis has to come back in. Plenty of variables still but enough Aus songs around that 8 should be favourite and 9 a sneaky chance.

2 LAV's was great value at $4.50 as it should have been the favourite outcome. its into $2.25 now which to me is about right.

Theres currently 2 LAV's in the top 100 and none in the 100-200 range (based on current data) so no great threat of a 3rd song entering the 100. If one does it will probably be Odette - Magnolia but for $4.50 Im more than happy to take that risk.

IMO a couple more LAV's should still make the 100-200 countdown.

 

[jack 23]

Hopefully there’s some decent BYO odds otherwise they’re making it very appealing to just sit it all out. Crummy odds so far.

If I had to pick one it would be Like People (DZ Deathrays) to finish between #11-20 at $2.75. I don’t see it holding top 10

most of us getting Confidence @ $16 for the whole first week, which is now at $1.60 has given this year plenty of upside.

agree not as good odds as last year.

the head to heads on sportsbet arent even worth looking at.

Ive got $2000 on this so far. Will put as much as I can on it. Dont see this event as gambling, more like an investment due to knowledge of the statistics.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

2 LAV's was great value at $4.50 as it should have been the favourite outcome. its into $2.25 now which to me is about right.

Theres currently 2 LAV's in the top 100 and none in the 100-200 range (based on current data) so no great threat of a 3rd song entering the 100. If one does it will probably be Odette - Magnolia but for $4.50 Im more than happy to take that risk.

IMO a couple more LAV's should still make the 100-200 countdown.

Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.

 

[jack 23]

Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.

the info was from someones count, not mine, but its not on internet

I think by the end warmtunas will be accurate (once 3-4% total votes counted) but I agree there seems to be more anomalies than usual that will be weeded out slowly. just need to be wary of that before dropping big money on anything.

That labrador Wax song I listened to it and thought maybe all their friends just posted votes at the start, dont know how that was top 5 at one stage. drifting down now...

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

the info was from someones count, not mine, but its not on internet

I think by the end warmtunas will be accurate (once 3-4% total votes counted) but I agree there seems to be more anomalies than usual that will be weeded out slowly. just need to be wary of that before dropping big money on anything.

That labrador Wax song I listened to it and thought maybe all their friends just posted votes at the start, dont know how that was top 5 at one stage. drifting down now...

Any chance for a link to the other count?

 

[Slipps]

On amy shark @11

 

[jack 23]

On amy shark @11

$21 at BetEasy . Dont think it will win. Should be top 10 though.

 

[Cuzz09]

AMY SHARK do do do do do do
AMY SHARK do do do do do do
AMY SHARK

On [device_name] using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

No Cash Out option on Sportsbet, I notice. Not surprising, I suppose, particularly if the Confidence plunge comes off.

 

[jack 23]

No Cash Out option on Sportsbet, I notice. Not surprising, I suppose, particularly if the Confidence plunge comes off.

whats meant by confidence plunge coming off?

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

whats meant by confidence plunge coming off?

Many of us backed Confidence at up to $16. Now into $1.80, so in betting terms, a big plunge.

 

[jack 23]

Many of us backed Confidence at up to $16. Now into $1.80, so in betting terms, a big plunge.

ok thanks.

I have still been nibbling at Confidence @ $1.85. looks like it will trend into $1.50 with Beteasy leading the way in price shortening

 

[TheJanuaryMan]

ok thanks.

I have still been nibbling at Confidence @ $1.85. looks like it will trend into $1.50 with Beteasy leading the way in price shortening

At $1.80, the value is gone. I've taken 3 songs and will only add a fourth if there is a significant lead from another outlet apart from Warm Tunas

 

[jack 23]

At $1.80, the value is gone. I've taken 3 songs and will only add a fourth if there is a significant lead from another outlet apart from Warm Tunas

agree but profitability isnt
winner will be TIA or Confidence

 

[jack 23]

Where are you getting 101-200 data from? Is it your own?

I don’t really have that much faith in Warmtunas this year. A lot of songs at the top end that I can’t really see finishing so well. WAAX, Trophy Eyes and Luca Brasi will drop a bit I imagine (Anything Near Conviction dropped around 60 spots from its prediction a couple of years ago). I can’t really see DZ Deathrays doing so well, and I think Ruby Fields won’t be top 3 by the end. Post Malone and Drake will jump pretty high their current spots I think.

With the amount of fake votes popping up on social media, I think they’ll be a fair difference between the prediction and the final count.

I think the main reason for this now is direct message submission of votes to warm tunas. it creates a bias unlike other years. it will be the reason why this count is the least accurate. I think it was a bad idea.

 

[ronpingwins]

If I had to pick one it would be Like People (DZ Deathrays) to finish between #11-20 at $2.75. I don’t see it holding top 10

This is at $5 now. I definitely think it will drop out of the 10, it's very good value.

 

[jack 23]

This is at $5 now. I definitely think it will drop out of the 10, it's very good value.

even Losing it @$8 is value to me. I dont believe it will finish 11-20, but at those odds and based on the numbers its worth a nibble. threw $10 on it. makes the countdown more fun

anything from position 4-10 statistically isnt a lock in the top 10 as they're all so close.

Sportsbet BYO is up with 1 market. its good value too. Wafia @ $3.30 IMO this should be $1.90 odds, so its value.

 

[NotAMagpieBogan]

Annoying that Boogie by Brockhampton isn’t a choice for the 11-20. New Orleans is available, and according to Warm Tunas, isn’t currently in the 100, while Boogie is in the low 30s.

 

[BuddysBiggestFan]

Annoying that Boogie by Brockhampton isn’t a choice for the 11-20. New Orleans is available, and according to Warm Tunas, isn’t currently in the 100, while Boogie is in the low 30s.

Live chat with them. I’m sure they’ll give you odds for it.

 

[Slipps]

Confidence is as good as won now... its only 20 days away now the favs dont lose.
Might be time to load up

 

[jack 23]

Confidence is as good as won now... its only 20 days away now the favs dont lose.
Might be time to load up

you can dutch Confidence @ $1.85 and TIA @ $2.55 and gurantee profit or break even.

Neds doesnt seem to have max bet that I have found yet. $1.70 for Confidence though.

 

[Slipps]

you can dutch Confidence @ $1.85 and TIA @ $2.55 and gurantee profit or break even.

Neds doesnt seem to have max bet that I have found yet. $1.70 for Confidence though.

$2000 on confindence @$1.85 = $3700
$1000 TIA @$3.55 = $3550
Guaranteed winner will they take that much on it thou ?