Analysis The rebuild of Carlton and Brisbane and their future prospects

Which team has the better future prospects on-field?


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Mar 20, 2002
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and picked up Ben with their last selection after no one else made a bid for him. What need do either of them fill at Carlton, apart from the romantic notion of a third generation in the system?

I could ask the same question about Atu Bosenavulagi who you took at #77 this year.

How is Tyler Brown progressing after picking him up at #50 in 2017 ?? What, he hasn't played a senior game yet ?? Must be that romantic notion holding him back then.

Even Josh Daicos who you snagged in 2016 at #57 couldn't get a senior game until last year.

The point being, the later in the draft a player is taken the higher the chance of failure there is regardless of his surname.
 

Fadge

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I could ask the same question about Atu Bosenavulagi who you took at #77 this year.

How is Tyler Brown progressing after picking him up at #50 in 2017 ?? What, he hasn't played a senior game yet ?? Must be that romantic notion holding him back then.

Even Josh Daicos who you snagged in 2016 at #57 couldn't get a senior game until last year.

The point being, the later in the draft a player is taken the higher the chance of failure there is regardless of his surname.
I must admit, I do have the same reservations about all father/son selections, particularly those at Collingwood.

There are three key points of difference however:
- Neither Gavin Brown nor Peter Daicos are in the same role at Collingwood as Stephen Silvagni is at Carlton;
- It's a little more difficult to get a crack in a top 4 team than it is a cellar dweller;
- This thread is about Carlton and Brisbane, not Collingwood;
 
Mar 20, 2002
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I must admit, I do have the same reservations about all father/son selections, particularly those at Collingwood.

There are three key points of difference however:
- Neither Gavin Brown nor Peter Daicos are in the same role at Collingwood as Stephen Silvagni is at Carlton;
- It's a little more difficult to get a crack in a top 4 team than it is a cellar dweller;
- This thread is about Carlton and Brisbane, not Collingwood;

1. Silvagni has removed himself from all discussions about his sons preferring to let the other recruiters make the decision on whether his sons are up to being recruited, I consider that totally ethical & honourable regardless of whether opposition supporters want to come up with conspiracy theories.

2. It's a little more difficult to get a crack in any team if you aren't physically ready to play senior footy too.

3. True, but you cannot make wild assertions when the same thing could be happening at your club (or all other clubs for that matter).
 

Fadge

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1. Silvagni has removed himself from all discussions about his sons preferring to let the other recruiters make the decision on whether his sons are up to being recruited, I consider that totally ethical & honourable regardless of whether opposition supporters want to come up with conspiracy theories.
Yes, of course that is happening...
2. It's a little more difficult to get a crack in any team if you aren't physically ready to play senior footy too.
Carlton had plenty of kids running around in their senior team this year who weren't physically ready.
3. True, but you cannot make wild assertions when the same thing could be happening at your club (or all other clubs for that matter).
I can, and I have, because it is very pertinent to the discussion around Carlton and their list build (i.e. the topic of this thread).
 
Jan 31, 2007
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For some reason, plenty of your Carlton brethren don’t like somebody saying they think bringing in a glut of VFL quality players and delisting them again in one or two years is poor list management.

But if I was a Carlton fan I would be much happier with the senior players brought in this year compared to what they had done in the last couple of off-seasons.

Until last year, quality mature aged players have generally been an after thought for Carlton, which is a different approach to that the Lions have taken. On this I agree with you.

Carlton have had a different focus; to strip the list bare, squeeze whatever currency they could find and use it in trades and the draft to get as many top rated youngsters as possible into the same group, in a very short space of time. Yeah they‘ve churned through a bunch of ancillary players in doing this, but after four drafts I think they’ve achieved their overall goal. I don’t consider this in itself poor list management at all.

Of course a core of 18-22yo players isn’t going to be winning you a tonne of games immediately, so there’s some way to go yet and last year we saw the focus start to shift a little; still hitting the first rounders heavy, but also getting serious about adding quality senior players, snaring McGovern and making a hard play for Shiel. I expect we’ll see this shift even more in the next stage of Carlton’s rebuild.
 

OnceWeWereKings

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Yes, of course that is happening...

Carlton had plenty of kids running around in their senior team this year who weren't physically ready.

I can, and I have, because it is very pertinent to the discussion around Carlton and their list build (i.e. the topic of this thread).

Same trudged up waffle, so boring Fadge.
 

OnceWeWereKings

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And thank you for your insightful contribution.
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Jun 4, 2005
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Until last year, quality mature aged players have generally been an after thought for Carlton, which is a different approach to that the Lions have taken. On this I agree with you.
But why is that seen as an acceptable thing?

Teams who have had a glut of early draft picks but minimal quality senior players on the list recently were Melbourne late 2000s and Gold Coast...both clubs rebuilds failed and they had to start again without even making finals.

The Dees learnt their lesson and added plenty of senior talent around the kids and are coming good

Gold Coast who knows what will happen there

Carlton have had a different focus; to strip the list bare, squeeze whatever currency they could find and use it in trades and the draft to get as many top rated youngsters as possible into the same group, in a very short space of time. Yeah they‘ve churned through a bunch of ancillary players in doing this, but after four drafts I think they’ve achieved their overall goal. I don’t consider this in itself poor list management at all.
But the Lions have drafted just as many highly rated kids

Starting with the 2015 draft, which is when SOS and the long play started

Carlton

3 top 5 picks
4 6-15 picks
2 16-25 picks

Brisbane

3 top 5 picks
2 6-15 picks
6 16-25 picks

Both have had a huge focus on the draft.

Carlton have also traded to get even more of the highly rated picks from 2014-16 in this time too - Pickett, Marchbank, Garlett, Goddard, Kennedy, Setterfield.

Of course a core of 18-22yo players isn’t going to be winning you a tonne of games immediately, so there’s some way to go yet and last year we saw the focus start to shift a little; still hitting the first rounders heavy, but also getting serious about adding quality senior players, snaring McGovern and making a hard play for Shiel. I expect we’ll see this shift even more in the next stage of Carlton’s rebuild.
IMO the fact they hadn’t done this earlier is a big risk. Should have been investing in better quality senior players to help the kids.
 

Milux

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Be as scared as you like...…

You are not that far ahead of us and have spent a number of years in the cellar too so it's massively hypocritical to start handing out advice when you haven't achieved a goddam thing for well over a decade either.
Never gave advice.

I meant scared as in I fear how dark it will be this year for carlton fans. Especially if my prediction of carlton being worse then GC this year.
 

ParapMarkets

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This neutral poster (Melbourne supporter)


So, Carlton supporters, don't go crying foul if you think this thread has degenerated into an unfair opportunity for non-believers to kick Carlton whilst they are down. It seems that regardless of how much thought and energy the impartials amongst us
Are Collingwood and Melbourne fans really “neutral” and “impartial” when it comes to a choice between Brisbane and Carlton?

The fact is nobody knows how things will go into the future. I get that people think the path Carlton have chosen is a mistake, it’s certainly ballsy. Get a large group of talented youth together get games into them. The focus now is getting quality experience, we missed out on Shiel this year but I expect the goal will be to trade this years picks for quality experience.

Brisbane themselves have worries too. They had one of the best injury runs with one of the most settled lineups in the AFL this year and only managed 6 wins. The top 3 in their b & f are older players who helped carry them (one of whom is now gone), along with Hodge.
 
Jan 31, 2007
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IMO the fact they hadn’t done this earlier is a big risk. Should have been investing in better quality senior players to help the kids.

I don’t agree at all. Building a core of similarly aged players in a group that can play a lot of games together, then adding senior players in positions of need later on, is a strategy that worked well for the greatest teams of the modern era. Carlton started from a long way back, with very little currency; they’re barely out of first gear.
 

10571z

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SOS is trying to replicate the GWS model ??

I'm struggling to understand where the fault is in accumulating top end talent via the draft (ie. top 10 draftees).

Also, how many clubs have milked the massive pool of talent that GWS had ?? If there are clubs who haven't, it's not like they haven't tried to. SOS has relationships with all of them so it stands to reason that he was able to entice them over. Besides, we could give them plenty of senior games instead of them waiting in a long queue at GWS.

If you get rid of a player you deem isn't up to it and replace him with a player who is better than him, you are improving the list. Each time SOS has bought in a player (not including the older retreads like Mullet & co), he has improved the list. There is bound to be the odd failure when you work in such big numbers too, every club has their share of failures, history tells us that no club has had a perfect record in player recruitment.

If some of these GWS don't cut it, they will be cut, that is a given. We aren't going to sit idle and hope they make it, in fact every player on our list is under the microscope with KPI's to achieve annually. Replacements will be brought in if & when some fall over. This is not some rare & unique formula either, it should happen at other clubs too.

Thing is, in the past, we have hung on to players for far too long in the faint hope they will magically transform into a Brownlow medallist. Well those days are gone forever now, the club is far more ruthless in its pursuits.

I don't care where we recruit them from, if they can play and are better than an existing player on our list, we want them.
Yes clubs have tried to milk the talent. Collingwood has 3 giants plays in our grand final team. Those 3 are best 22 without question

SOS on the other hand gets anyone who’s walked within 20km of the GWS training base. “We paid nothing for them” that’s still no reason to add people to and AFL list when they’ve shown little just because they’ve played for GWS.

IMO SOS is trying to save face by proving these kids weren’t actually busts that he got to GWS. Maybe he is to stubborn to admit they aren’t up to it. Like I said he has brought over 10 to Carlton and I’d say 1 (marchbank) would get a game for a top team.

Nothing wrong with accumulating talent which any club can do with high draft picks but bringing 10+ gws rejects and guys like bugg, Fasolo is questionable.
 
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Hannabal

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Carlton have had a different focus; to strip the list bare, squeeze whatever currency they could find and use it in trades and the draft to get as many top rated youngsters as possible into the same group, in a very short space of time.
Yep, it's the perfect rebuild.

When Carlton was interviewing Bolton for the senior coaching position in August 2015 he outlined his blueprint for future success, which included 2018 (year 3) being the worst year in Carlton's VFL/AFL history. SOS and his cohorts looked at each other in silence. They knew they had their man.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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In your opinion how’s Jack Silvagni coming along?
Silvagni reminds me of smoother Crocker from us.

That third tall flanker type forward, who doesn’t have any real stand out tricks at AFL level, just a nice player...but unfortunately neither finds the ball enough.

Not being aware of either contract situation, but would imagine if Crocker doesnt have a big 2019 he will be finished at Collingwood.

And Silvagni now also competing with McGovern and Fasolo which IMO will make it harder for him.
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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But why is that seen as an acceptable thing?

Teams who have had a glut of early draft picks but minimal quality senior players on the list recently were Melbourne late 2000s and Gold Coast...both clubs rebuilds failed and they had to start again without even making finals.

The Dees learnt their lesson and added plenty of senior talent around the kids and are coming good

Gold Coast who knows what will happen there


But the Lions have drafted just as many highly rated kids

Starting with the 2015 draft, which is when SOS and the long play started

Carlton

3 top 5 picks
4 6-15 picks
2 16-25 picks

Brisbane

3 top 5 picks
2 6-15 picks
6 16-25 picks

Both have had a huge focus on the draft.

Carlton have also traded to get even more of the highly rated picks from 2014-16 in this time too - Pickett, Marchbank, Garlett, Goddard, Kennedy, Setterfield.


IMO the fact they hadn’t done this earlier is a big risk. Should have been investing in better quality senior players to help the kids.
I find it a curious that you omitted GWS from teams which have had a glut if draft picks and few senior players. Ours was managed by Sylvagni, who left us in good shape. I jlguess I just thought you better than to twist reality that way.
 

Hannabal

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Silvagni reminds me of smoother Crocker from us.

That third tall flanker type forward, who doesn’t have any real stand out tricks at AFL level, just a nice player...but unfortunately neither finds the ball enough.

Not being aware of either contract situation, but would imagine if Crocker doesnt have a big 2019 he will be finished at Collingwood.

And Silvagni now also competing with McGovern and Fasolo which IMO will make it harder for him.
I believe they're planning on turning Silvagni into an inside mid. He's far too slow to play anywhere else.

While I'm not convinced it will work I think it's a good move, as they don't have a lot to lose and may just find a position for him that suits.
 
Jun 4, 2005
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I find it a curious that you omitted GWS from teams which have had a glut if draft picks and few senior players. Ours was managed by Sylvagni, who left us in good shape. I jlguess I just thought you better than to twist reality that way.
IMO the Giants were smart to ensure they added good senior veterans along the way

C.Cornes, L.Power, McDonald they were L.Hodge type additions at the start.

And they continued to add senior guys along the way

Gilham, Mumford, H.Shaw
R.Griffen, Patfull, S.Johnson, DeBoer, Deledio
 

Isaac Cumming No 1

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IMO the Giants were smart to ensure they added good senior veterans along the way

C.Cornes, L.Power, McDonald they were L.Hodge type additions at the start.

And they continued to add senior guys along the way

Gilham, Mumford, H.Shaw
R.Griffen, Patfull, S.Johnson, DeBoer, Deledio
We played less older players in the beginning than anyone. It was a risk I think sending the youngsters to the slaughter every week in 2012, 2013 particularly, and 2014 to a lesser extent in my view.
It paid off in the end and was an example of inspired list management by Sylvagni not to trade the talent for exoerience as we were expected to do.

It shows a lot of talented youngsters isn't necessarily a bad thing in the long term. They wont deliver immediately though. I do believe it puts a lot of pressure on the coaches to keep everything on track. Pretty much anyone who turned up at Tom Wills oval that could make a credible case could get work coaching with us in that period.
 
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We played less older players in the beginning than anyone. It was a risk I think sending the youngsters to the slaughter every week in 2012, 2013 particularly, and 2014 to a lesser extent in my view.
It paid off in the end and was an example of inspired list management by Sylvagni not to trade the talent for exoerience as we were expected to do.

It shows a lot of talented youngsters isn't necessarily a bad thing in the long term. They wont deliver immediately though. I do believe it puts a lot of pressure on the coaches to keep everything on track. Pretty much anyone who turned up at Tom Wills oval that could make a credible case could get work coaching with us in that period.
For mine the difference between Giants and Suns is the Giants ensured they got quality senior players to help the talented kids, and they picked two young stars with leadership qualities in Davis and Ward.

Failed rebuilds like Melbourne and Suns believed that a glut of high draft picks will eventually come good...but they didn’t, and IMO the fact they were surrounded by poor senior players was a big part.

Even go back to teams like Geelong who had the wave of youngsters coming through, the Cats still had plenty of quality senior players to help the kids develop.

The Giants had a solid build after the first two seasons - year 3 the Giants won 6 games, year 4 they won 11 and had a % of 100

If 2015 is ground zero, the Lions had a 90% season in year three, whilst Carlton trotted put a sub 60% year.

Can see the Lions giving mid table a nudge in year 4 of their rebuild.
 
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