Analysis 2019 List Management Discussion

[thylacine60]

I'm a history nut and hope they save it - on saying that, what happened to the thylacine was one of the greater nature disasters perpetrated by humanity

 

[BLUEALLTHRU]

Don’t forget Kennedy. Gun and I’m hopeful on Cuningham Polson Gibbons & Lang maybe even Williamson.

And Ed will still be around and I have no doubt we will add some more.

I agree totally!

You will need more than hope with Lang..Powerball maybe.

 

[Canyouhearthedrums]

I’m less bullish on TDK. Clearly got the ability but he’s a LONG from building an AFL level physique. It’s one thing to come in for a couple of games, banging bodies with Grundy et al for 22 games is obviously something else.

 

[The Smoking Gun]

I'm also in the TDK/Harry ruck/forward camp. Perfect future combo. We have done the investing in big blokes in the draft beautifully. I must admit i didn't see the TDK selection coming but the timing really was perfect.

We have two 20 yo 200+ cm athletic Ruck forwards that are shaping up beautifully. I was pleased to see the pics of TDK from training recently. He is plenty tall and broad enough to be a future AFL ruckman. Now just to fatten him up a bit more. I would be happy to see him learn his trade all 2019 in the reserves.

Kruze and if unavailable then Lobbe or Philipps to stand up for us for 40 games then the TDK/McKay combo can strut their stuff for a decade.

I’m less bullish on TDK. Clearly got the ability but he’s a LONG from building an AFL level physique. It’s one thing to come in for a couple of games, banging bodies with Grundy et al for 22 games is obviously something else.

I somewhere in between the two of you:

• In terms of his physical development he's coming along fine and has added a little muscle to his frame. He probably needs another couple of preseasons to fill out and there'll be some confidence that comes with that.
• Although he's still got a long way to go De Koning has somewhat improved his endurance, which was genuinely poor when he joined the club. At least he can now get himself into the frame from contest to contest.
• Still looks like a baby giraffe when it comes to coordination and trying to get positioning. That'll change as he fills out and further improves his tank.
• Like Kreuzer and Lobbe he really struggles to get off the ground much when marking or playing in the ruck. This is something I don't see changing much, if at all, regardless of development. This aspect was also noticeable at TAC Cup and U18 National level.
• De Koning is extremely mobile and has very good speed for someone his size. At least as mobile as Grundy, but with a little more burst speed. If he's developed as such and kept physically lean he'll be a tremendous marking asset around the ground as he's got quite strong hands.

I'd still really like to see SOS try and find/acquire someone more in the Gawn/Preuss size. IMO a genuinely dominant ruckman would make a far greater impact to our midfield than Kelly or Coniglio. A really good one that gets genuine purchase on the ball to knock it 2m+ from the tap brings so many players into the game and will cost a shitload less than the two aforementioned players.

 

[HARKER]

I'd still really like to see SOS try and find/acquire someone more in the Gawn/Preuss size. IMO a genuinely dominant ruckman would make a far greater impact to our midfield than Kelly or Coniglio. A really good one that gets genuine purchase on the ball to knock it 2m+ from the tap brings so many players into the game and will cost a shitload less than the two aforementioned players.

That's quite possible and probable, but you won't find a Gawn too easily. (stating the obvious there)
We may have to settle for a 198-200cm competitive, mobile ruck/forward that chases his own ball and this is where a TDK makes sense.

Seems not too long ago, that we were talking about ruck-men being relatively redundant. How things change.

 

[HBF]

we might end up with more steals than bhp.............

Not your best work my very good friend.

 

[HBF]

I’m less bullish on TDK. Clearly got the ability but he’s a LONG from building an AFL level physique. It’s one thing to come in for a couple of games, banging bodies with Grundy et al for 22 games is obviously something else.

He's clearly been drafted with an eye on the future. There really is no rush with TDK given the talls we have at our disposal for 2019.

 

[La Dispute]

I see TDK more as a forward/ruck than a ruck/forward, which was posited when he was drafted. Has nice leading patterns, good hands and is a decent set shot. Also a nice level of aggression.

I think the club will look closely at our ruck stocks over the course of the season and see where all of Kreuzer, Phillips and Lobbe are at. Two are injury prone, and the other has been brought in specifically as depth.

We’d ideally like another in the 22-26 age range, to essentially replace Phillips, and potentially to take the number 1 mantle if they’re good enough. I don’t think it’d be a particularly hard sell if any second/third-string ruckman wanted more opportunity. Lobbe is also touch-and-go for 2020.

 

[CJMB]

I somewhere in between the two of you:

• In terms of his physical development he's coming along fine and has added a little muscle to his frame. He probably needs another couple of preseasons to fill out and there'll be some confidence that comes with that.
• Although he's still got a long way to go De Koning has somewhat improved his endurance, which was genuinely poor when he joined the club. At least he can now get himself into the frame from contest to contest.
• Still looks like a baby giraffe when it comes to coordination and trying to get positioning. That'll change as he fills out and further improves his tank.
• Like Kreuzer and Lobbe he really struggles to get off the ground much when marking or playing in the ruck. This is something I don't see changing much, if at all, regardless of development. This aspect was also noticeable at TAC Cup and U18 National level.
• De Koning is extremely mobile and has very good speed for someone his size. At least as mobile as Grundy, but with a little more burst speed. If he's developed as such and kept physically lean he'll be a tremendous marking asset around the ground as he's got quite strong hands.

I'd still really like to see SOS try and find/acquire someone more in the Gawn/Preuss size. IMO a genuinely dominant ruckman would make a far greater impact to our midfield than Kelly or Coniglio. A really good one that gets genuine purchase on the ball to knock it 2m+ from the tap brings so many players into the game and will cost a shitload less than the two aforementioned players.

I see TDK more as a forward/ruck than a ruck/forward, which was posited when he was drafted. Has nice leading patterns, good hands and is a decent set shot. Also a nice level of aggression.

I think the club will look closely at our ruck stocks over the course of the season and see where all of Kreuzer, Phillips and Lobbe are at. Two are injury prone, and the other has been brought in specifically as depth.

We’d ideally like another in the 22-26 age range, to essentially replace Phillips, and potentially to take the number 1 mantle if they’re good enough. I don’t think it’d be a particularly hard sell if any second/third-string ruckman wanted more opportunity. Lobbe is also touch-and-go for 2020.

This year we've got Kreuzer, Lobbe, Phillips & Casboult as playable ruck options, with future potential from TDK & Harry as fwd/ruck types.

I'd hazard a guess that next year we could be looking at Kreuzer, Lobbe and the kids in Harry & Tom. Kreuzer & Lobbe both turn 30 this year and there's still a bit of a gap in age and development between them and Harry/Tom.

Darcy Cameron might be able to be pried out of Sydney, probably for a nominal pick, particularly if both Nasmith & Sinclair can stay on the park this year and play the season out. We might be able to entice him over with the suggestion that he might be able to play a fair bit of footy as Kreuz (& Lobbe) get closer to the end and the younger guys are still developing.

I guess the other big question would be if he's good enough to target. Only played 1 AFL game with pretty average numbers & I haven't watched any of his NEAFL work (or looked up the stats) so can't really comment there. He's also 204cm/100kg so not quite Gawn/Pruess size but still a bit of a lump.

Outside of Cameron, does anybody know of any other 2nd/3rd string ruckmen with the right age profile, size, & ability that we should be looking at?

 

[TerryWallet]

I somewhere in between the two of you:

• In terms of his physical development he's coming along fine and has added a little muscle to his frame. He probably needs another couple of preseasons to fill out and there'll be some confidence that comes with that.
• Although he's still got a long way to go De Koning has somewhat improved his endurance, which was genuinely poor when he joined the club. At least he can now get himself into the frame from contest to contest.
• Still looks like a baby giraffe when it comes to coordination and trying to get positioning. That'll change as he fills out and further improves his tank.
• Like Kreuzer and Lobbe he really struggles to get off the ground much when marking or playing in the ruck. This is something I don't see changing much, if at all, regardless of development. This aspect was also noticeable at TAC Cup and U18 National level.
• De Koning is extremely mobile and has very good speed for someone his size. At least as mobile as Grundy, but with a little more burst speed. If he's developed as such and kept physically lean he'll be a tremendous marking asset around the ground as he's got quite strong hands.

I'd still really like to see SOS try and find/acquire someone more in the Gawn/Preuss size. IMO a genuinely dominant ruckman would make a far greater impact to our midfield than Kelly or Coniglio. A really good one that gets genuine purchase on the ball to knock it 2m+ from the tap brings so many players into the game and will cost a shitload less than the two aforementioned players.

These are the listings from the CFC site:

Kruezer - 200cm
McKay - 200
DeKoning - 201
Phillips - 203
Lobbe - 200
Casboult - 201

From your recent obs do those look accurate? If we take Kruze at face value at 200 because he has been that for a longtime, then my gut feel is:

McKay 203
Phillips 202 - with 27yo chicken legs lol
DeKoning - you tell me. From my looking at shots this preseason he looks 202-3
Lobbe - 200 tops
Casboult - 200 tops

I think TDK is a genuine ruck prospect. Not an old school type ruck prospect but a modern type tandem prospect. Lucky for us that we have a tandem prospect to use with him. Him and McKay compliment each other so well going forward. You've used the better word about TDK with "mobile" probably rather than athletic. Harry the more athletic one. I don't think Cripps, Kanga, Setters, Dow, Walsh and Samo will need to be spoon fed in the near future. I reckon a mobile competitive ruck will suit us great. I think we've got the combo's and combatability right with our Ruck/KPF's in TDK, Harry, Charlie and Gov.

Granted, there is a lot of projection with most things Carlton but this natural pessimist/realist is bullish on the bulk of the young playing group.

 

[true blue19]

This year we've got Kreuzer, Lobbe, Phillips & Casboult as playable ruck options, with future potential from TDK & Harry as fwd/ruck types.

I'd hazard a guess that next year we could be looking at Kreuzer, Lobbe and the kids in Harry & Tom. Kreuzer & Lobbe both turn 30 this year and there's still a bit of a gap in age and development between them and Harry/Tom.

Darcy Cameron might be able to be pried out of Sydney, probably for a nominal pick, particularly if both Nasmith & Sinclair can stay on the park this year and play the season out. We might be able to entice him over with the suggestion that he might be able to play a fair bit of footy as Kreuz (& Lobbe) get closer to the end and the younger guys are still developing.

I guess the other big question would be if he's good enough to target. Only played 1 AFL game with pretty average numbers & I haven't watched any of his NEAFL work (or looked up the stats) so can't really comment there. He's also 204cm/100kg so not quite Gawn/Pruess size but still a bit of a lump.

Outside of Cameron, does anybody know of any other 2nd/3rd string ruckmen with the right age profile, size, & ability that we should be looking at?

Darcy from Freo would be who I would at after Cameron.

 

[CJMB]

Darcy from Freo would be who I would at after Cameron.

He recently signed an extension until 2022and is the obvious heir apparent to the giant, not sure he's really gettable outside offering significant money and something decent at the trade table.

 

[true blue19]

He recently signed an extension until 2022and is the obvious heir apparent to the giant, not sure he's really gettable outside offering significant money and something decent at the trade table.

He looks like he is behind Lobb and Jones to take the No1 ruck spot from Sandilands. If he spends a year in the 2s without a look in, he might look to moving home to Vic. This day and age contracts don't mean a thing and if the club aren't talking to him there is something wrong.

 

[thylacine60]

how much 2s footy do people see tdk playing - one thing to throw him into the real stuff early but is the nbs a better place for him as he learns his craft?

 

[Blue__Balls]

how much 2s footy do people see tdk playing - one thing to throw him into the real stuff early but is the nbs a better place for him as he learns his craft?

Might be a weird approach, but it might be an idea to base it on VFL opposition.

If the opponent for that week has a dominant ruckman, play him in the VFL with support from Lobbe/Phillips.
If the VFL ruck opposition is rubbish, give him a run in the seniors as a third tall forward with a few ruck minutes.

Gives him the most valuable experience possible, either full time rucking against someone who will test him, or ruck/forward in the seniors to get him more experience at the top level.

Probably not, though. Mostly VFL is my guess, first cab off the rank to cover injury, though Kerr might be a sneaky chance to get some game time too.

 

[Juddernaut08]

I think he'll play 11 games

 

[smashbox gill]

He looks like he is behind Lobb and Jones to take the No1 ruck spot from Sandilands. If he spends a year in the 2s without a look in, he might look to moving home to Vic. This day and age contracts don't mean a thing and if the club aren't talking to him there is something wrong.

He was injured most of the year hence he didn’t play. Freo rate him very very highly. He will play most games this year.

 

[Coona Blues]

He looks like he is behind Lobb and Jones to take the No1 ruck spot from Sandilands. If he spends a year in the 2s without a look in, he might look to moving home to Vic. This day and age contracts don't mean a thing and if the club aren't talking to him there is something wrong.

There is no way he is behind Jones if fit.
The Freo board are expecting Darcy to assume the mantle of no.1 from Sandi during the season.

Jones will be handy, we were rumoured to be in to him pre last year's draft. He may be one worth looking at, as would Lloyd Meek if we
are looking at adding depth.

With Darcy, Jones and Meek backing up Sandilands and Lobb, and Taberner a capable chop out forward/ruck, they are well served and one
could shake loose. As someone mentioned WA boy Cameron, on Sydney's list may seek opportunity elsewhere if Sinclair and Naismith
are fit in the coming season. The only other club maybe over stocked with developing rucks is Port Adelaide, with Hayes and Ladhams developing
behind Ryder, Lycett and Frampton, while Westhoff and KPF Marshall are capable of a chop out.

Young Draper on *'s rookie list will be a good one. Unlikely to shake loose, although they have taken Zac Clarke as back up for Bellchambers
and McKernan, so may have an issue with short term opportunity.

It is very unlikely any mature ruckmen will be looking to be on the move. Naturally Grundy approaching Free Agency is the jewel in the crown
so to speak, but hard to see him leaving the Magpies in a "window".

 

[Laphroaig]

Probably not, though. Mostly VFL is my guess, first cab off the rank to cover injury, though Kerr might be a sneaky chance to get some game time too.

I REALLY like the look of Kerr from the little we have seen of him. Looks like a genuine natural forward, which a lot of players who play forward are not.

Starting to look like he's the bloke that landed in the wrong place at the wrong time though. Sadly for him, it may be a case of getting enough games into him to build his trade profile.

Either way, he appears to have too much football in him to just discard.

 

[katmanblue]

And trading away #1 for Croad.

And then returning him.

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[katmanblue]

Getting Rioli out of Richmond would be tough, and costly.

It might still be worth chasing him. If only to increase the cost of keeping him at Richmond.

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[thylacine60]

"You'll never get Matt and Mr Fabulous out of them high payin' gigs."

 

[Eiffel 65]

It might still be worth chasing him. If only to increase the cost of keeping him at Richmond.

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I wouldn't bother.

The comparison would be a Richmond supporter saying lets try and get Sam Walsh. Absolutely no chance.

There are plenty of small forwards around. Just need to look.

Mature age players in recent drafts including Liam Ryan, Willie Rioli and Zac Langdon to name a few. All taken with relatively modest picks and have had an immediate impact at AFL level.

I reckon Ben Cavarra will surprise a few this year too.

Lets back Agresta to unearth an untried player

 

[thylacine60]

not sure that comparison is quite there, gallic iron edifice LXV

 

[Christou2Kouta]

I REALLY like the look of Kerr from the little we have seen of him. Looks like a genuine natural forward, which a lot of players who play forward are not.

Starting to look like he's the bloke that landed in the wrong place at the wrong time though. Sadly for him, it may be a case of getting enough games into him to build his trade profile.

Either way, he appears to have too much football in him to just discard.

If Kerr couldn’t get a game because Curnow, McKay and McGovern are all fit and firing throughout the year but he kicks 40+ goals in the VFL, that would be a good year I reckon and worthy of retention.


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