Traded 2018 Live Trade: Carlton trade #4 (2019) to Adelaide for #19 (2018) and #9 (2019)

Rich01

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All Stocker needs to be is another part in the sum of the whole that comprises our future team. He doesn’t have the same expectations as our top draft picks, because he’s not one. The ‘top 6’ comments are nothing more than a big of internal boost for the club and Stocker himself.

If he’s not prepared for whatever scrutinity he’s going to face (and I sincerely doubt it’s as extensive as the catastrophic projections some are making) then he wouldn’t have been picked where he was.

All first-round draftees are under the microscope once they are drafted, and need a good temperament to weather this. From all indications our recruiting team believes Stocker has the determination and drive to succeed, and this would have been a big consideration in executing the trade, and one intangible as to why we had him further up our draft board than most.
Spot on.
But what live trading does is extrapolate the opportunity cost of a pick.

Stocker like it or not is the first cab off the ranks with this new rule.

Like it or not, he (and whoever is drafted with the 2019 first round Adelaide pick that Carlton currently own) will be compared to the picks available at the time he was drafted (RCD, Smith etc, not the top 6 picks) as well as the future pick that Carlton ponied up to get him.

Time will tell if it’s a good trade.
 
Jul 14, 2005
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Spot on.
But what live trading does is extrapolate the opportunity cost of a pick.

Stocker like it or not is the first cab off the ranks with this new rule.

Like it or not, he (and whoever is drafted with the 2019 first round Adelaide pick that Carlton currently own) will be compared to the picks available at the time he was drafted (RCD, Smith etc, not the top 6 picks) as well as the future pick that Carlton ponied up to get him.

Time will tell if it’s a good trade.

Bingo.

Adelaide fans will death-ride his career (along with next years first), as Carlton supporters will do with Adelaide’s (likely) early pick next year.

To some extent this is nothing new, but live trading certainly adds another dimension to tracking player performance.
 
Jan 31, 2007
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I’m a big fan of what ifs mate.
But realistic ones, not make believe ones where you try to make an assumption based on a performance by a player in one quarter from 2013 and try to project that into a game four years later.

I do make an assumption based on that performance; it’s information. It can be used along with every performance of Gibbs’ career, good and bad, as a relative frequency with which to distribute probability.

I really can’t be arsed getting into all this. I just chimed into say that Gibbs had a purple patch in that 3Q; more influential than an other player in getting Carlton to within a point. He dropped off a bit after that, but the team were up and about and others took over. Still great game overall too - game high disposals, contested possessions, goal assists, clearances (12 - next best was 7), third in tackles. BOG in Carlton’s BnF.
 
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Bingo.

Adelaide fans will death-ride his career (along with next years first), as Carlton supporters will do with Adelaide’s (likely) early pick next year.

To some extent this is nothing new, but live trading certainly adds another dimension to tracking player performance.

I think the focus will be on the comparison.
Its not like we wanted Stocker, so we wont be death riding his career as such.

The death riding will certainly be on the guy that we pick with Carlton's pick.
 

Rich01

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I do make an assumption based on that performance; it’s information. It can be used along with every performance of Gibbs’ career, good and bad, as a relative frequency with which to distribute probability.

I really can’t be arsed getting into all this. I just chimed into say that Gibbs had a purple patch in that 3Q; more influential than an other player in getting Carlton to within a point. He dropped off a bit after that, but the team were up and about and others took over. Still great game overall too - game high disposals, contested possessions, goal assists, clearances (12 - next best was 7), third in tackles. BOG in Carlton’s BnF.
That’s fine to make assumptions, but for those that were at the ground that day, Judd was the one that turned the game. He was absolutely phenomenal. Was in awe even though it was my team he destroyed.

Might have looked a bit different on tv and then reflecting on stats. Guys like Murphy, Duigan and Gibbs were good supporting acts.
 
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That’s fine to make assumptions, but for those that were at the ground that day, Judd was the one that turned the game. He was absolutely phenomenal. Was in awe even though it was my team he destroyed.

I can not speak for you; perhaps you didn’t realise the turnaround was on while your team was still in front, perhaps your starting point for the turnaround is different to mine, but during the 5 goal spurt that got Carlton back to within a point, Judd didn’t really do much. It was Gibbs getting first hands on the ball, being involved in goals, intercepting Richmond’s attacks. Judd’s magic show to steal the game away came next. I don’t know what else to say.
 

Rich01

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I can not speak for you; perhaps you didn’t realise the turnaround was on while your team was still in front, perhaps your starting point for the turnaround is different to mine, but during the 5 goal spurt that got Carlton back to within a point, Judd didn’t really do much. It was Gibbs getting first hands on the ball, being involved in goals, intercepting Richmond’s attacks. Judd’s magic show to steal the game away came next. I don’t know what else to say.
No. I’m thinking if Judds 11 possession, third quarter. That’s when the game was won. He was phenomenal.

Seems history reports it the same way.

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/amp...8/carlton-beat-richmond-afl-elimination-final

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/sport/...g/news-story/ad358ce28bb4a9f1992585ba24eedd5f

Richmond supporters have always known when an opposition comeback is on the cards, and this was no different. Judd was immense in the third.
 
Jul 6, 2017
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I’m a big fan of what ifs mate.
But realistic ones, not make believe ones where you try to make an assumption based on a performance by a player in one quarter from 2013 and try to project that into a game four years later.

I get it though. When you don’t have that success you need to fantasise about the what ifs, and project forwards as best you can with optimism. Can empathise there for sure.

It’s the stance Carlton supporters need to take with the actual topic of this thread. They can’t think about the consequences of their trade for Stocker. Rather hope like hell he turns out to be the top 6 player in the latest draft that SOS believes he is.
Look on the day, maybe a fully fit mcleod and ricciuto at their best might have been able to turn the game..might as too many others were way down on the day. Gibbs in no way shape or form would have changed the momentum on his own
 
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No. I’m thinking if Judds 11 possession, third quarter. That’s when the game was won. He was phenomenal.

The Tigers were 31 points up when Gibbs won a clearance from the throw in and fed it to Murphy for a kick to Waite and goal. In the 6-7 minute time span it took Carlton to close that gap to within a point, Gibbs won probably 4 clearances and was involved in 3 goals. Half of the forward entries that made Judd so impactful in this period came from Gibbs passing him the ball after having won the clearance.

Judd was inspirational in that quarter, amazing no doubt, but during that particular purple patch, no one influenced the 5 goal surge more than Gibbs.
 
Dec 28, 2007
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Gibbs was BOG in Carlton’s BnF for this match. You feel vindicated by an article that barely had him in the bests. Kind of a reverse vindication for me. Yes, Judd was immense, great flash and an obvious contributor; but for those paying closer attention, it was Gibbs who first got the Blues going. The Carlton coaches sure knew it. What a pity the MVP wasn’t around so we could have seen Hardwick’s recognition as well.

I don’t know what more to tell you other than go watch that third quarter again. I‘ve explained what Gibbs contributed during the period Carlton kicked 5 goals to come back from being 30pts down. Show me one other player that had the same impact as Gibbs in that 10 minute stretch; like literally tell me what they contributed. Judd didn’t. He had his first stunning take away from the bounce into F50 in this period, probably unnoticed by most, Gibbs was splayed out on the ground having won the hardball and handballed it to him. None of the players you mentioned had the same impact either. All of that came later, in the period of struggle after the initial 5 goals spurt that got Carlton back into the game.

Who knows what Gibbs could’ve done for the Crows. All I’m saying is he once played a finals match at the G’ against the Tigers where his team was thumped to half time and played a key role in turning the game around. As you’ve noted, there were a few players (having average games to that point) that jumped on the gravy train after that and belted out a win. Who knows if the Gibbs could’ve done the same on GF day, or if other Crows players would’ve jumped on the gravy train like the Blues ones did. That’s just one big stone forever left unturned.
Im not going by the article at all and actually searched to see if i had it wrong yesterday
I am going off going to that game and watching it and what i thought at the time and also watched the replay again the next day and it was clear in my mind on what i thought and the Article only backed up my view of the game nothing more.

Regarding the coaches thoughts thats fine maybe they thought he carried their game plan to how they wanted it done, Dusty got the norm smith that year but my view was the Houli was the best player in the grand final - its just an opinion

But the gist of this argument is that the Carlton poster (cant remember who it was and cant be bothered searching tbh) Said that Gibbs would have been the difference between a win / loss for the Crows and i didnt agree saying that the entire crows team were shell shocked after the first 15-20 minutes and Richmond were on fire and Gibbs would not have won them the flag in 2017

But the difference that seems to go unnoticed with my posts is that the team that Gibbs played against in 2013 was a very very different team with little defensive pressure and accountability where the 2017 team had 13 different players playing a very different game style

anyway its pointless arguing as we will never know who is right and who is wrong so pointless clogging up the thread
 
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The Tigers were 31 points up when Gibbs won a clearance from the throw in and fed it to Murphy for a kick to Waite and goal. In the 6-7 minute time span it took Carlton to close that gap to within a point, Gibbs won probably 4 clearances and was involved in 3 goals. Half of the forward entries that made Judd so impactful in this period came from Gibbs passing him the ball after having won the clearance.

Judd was inspirational in that quarter, amazing no doubt, but during that particular purple patch, no one influenced the 5 goal surge more than Gibbs.


Just made a phone call to the 3 mates i went to that game with (all blues supporters and asked the)
What and Who do you believe was the player that turned the game and was the difference in Carlton winning and losing
Bill - Judd easily the best
Chris -Judd
Tommy - Judd and waite but probably Judd

It must of been where we were sitting compared to where you were 2nd level wing SS side
 
Jan 31, 2007
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Just made a phone call to the 3 mates i went to that game with (all blues supporters and asked the)
What and Who do you believe was the player that turned the game and was the difference in Carlton winning and losing
Bill - Judd easily the best
Chris -Judd
Tommy - Judd and waite but probably Judd

It must of been where we were sitting compared to where you were 2nd level wing SS side

Judd won a stunning clearance from the centre and booted the ball I50 to a contest where players swarmed on it for a Garlett goal. Gibbs won the next centre bounce and handballed it to Judd for a similar, but ineffective boot forward. Gibbs cleared the ball from a pack and kicked to Judd who overcooked the pass to Duigan but he took an amazing mark falling backwards anyway and goaled. That’s Judd’s contribution in that 6-7 minute burst.

Of course, unlike with Gibbs, the heroics didn’t stop there for Judd, and I can’t help but feel you’re somewhat conflating his role in this initial burst with the rest of his performance that quarter and the start of the fourth.

Anyway, as you said above, enough clogging up the thread. I’m done with the convo.
 
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Magpie03

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Mcleod was a freak, opposition coaches had nightmares trying to coach against him. Gibbs though whilst not being as visually prominent influences games in subtle ways that people other than his teams supporters dont appreciate. People confuse him as soft because he makes things look easy cause somehow he reads the play and appears to have more time better than most. Judd was always explosive even late in his career.

From a coaching perspective Id love Gibbs because he is disciplined but for X Factor and game changes youd go with Mcleod or Judd - Ricciuto was a bloke who led and others followed.
 
Jul 6, 2017
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Are we seriously debating Gibbs vs Andrew McLeod and Mark Riccuito?
Staggering.
I'll put my hand up to say that in a reply earlier to a richmond supporter I noted that gibbs would have made no difference to the 2017 GF final result, however as a hypothetical having a fit and in form McLeod AND Ricciuto may have been able to change the momentum and affect the result..the thread has apparently morphed from there
 

bmaurizio

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As a Crows supporter, the possibility of actually getting pick 1 scares me.

Yes its a fabulous dream, the result of a calculated and courageous move by Silvagni, but I wouldn’t get too caught up in the fantasy.
CFC will do quite a bit better than what one would expect, given the teams youth and Stocker will ceratinly show his quality at some point during the 2019 campaign.
 
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Yes its a fabulous dream, the result of a calculated and courageous move by Silvagni, but I wouldn’t get too caught up in the fantasy.
CFC will do quite a bit better than what one would expect, given the teams youth and Stocker will ceratinly show his quality at some point during the 2019 campaign.
Who do you see seriously Carlton finishing above?

I look at it and see probably Gold Coast as most probably the top SANFL sides would give them a good game. Maybe St Kilda although they have more experience in their team. after than unless a team really falls off the perch, I just can't see how Carlton go from 2 wins to 8- 10 wins needed to push up the ladder as there is too much quality above them at this stage
 
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Who do you see seriously Carlton finishing above?

I look at it and see probably Gold Coast as most probably the top SANFL sides would give them a good game. Maybe St Kilda although they have more experience in their team. after than unless a team really falls off the perch, I just can't see how Carlton go from 2 wins to 8- 10 wins needed to push up the ladder as there is too much quality above them at this stage

You know things can change quickly

As a matter of interest, where did you have North and Pies finishing this year? Or perhaps the Saints?
 
Jul 6, 2017
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You know things can change quickly

As a matter of interest, where did you have North and Pies finishing this year? Or perhaps the Saints?
Things can change quickly and there were a few teams that fell off the perch last year due to a number of factors - crows being one. And others improved. But if we take it on face value that most teams will have a reasonable run with injury and no preseason camp problems, there would have to be a pretty large drop off from some teams for Carlton to overhaul them over a season considering Carlton have just come off of a 2 win season and Docherty is now out for the year. For example Freo were a team in the bottom 6 but look at who they have recruited - they have done very well and will be much more potent going forward this year. The bulldogs seem to be relatively injury free and the addition of smith - like walsh for you guys will help them in the middle. I expect the crows to bounce right back this year as we are relatively injury free and have addressed certain areas of the preseason + smith and B Crouch will be big ins for us. Even taking off my hat that wishes Carlton finish bottom so the crows can get picks 1 & 19 - I just can't see how they could rise out of the bottom 3 this year
 
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Things can change quickly and there were a few teams that fell off the perch last year due to a number of factors - crows being one. And others improved. But if we take it on face value that most teams will have a reasonable run with injury and no preseason camp problems, there would have to be a pretty large drop off from some teams for Carlton to overhaul them over a season considering Carlton have just come off of a 2 win season and Docherty is now out for the year. For example Freo were a team in the bottom 6 but look at who they have recruited - they have done very well and will be much more potent going forward this year. The bulldogs seem to be relatively injury free and the addition of smith - like walsh for you guys will help them in the middle. I expect the crows to bounce right back this year as we are relatively injury free and have addressed certain areas of the preseason + smith and B Crouch will be big ins for us. Even taking off my hat that wishes Carlton finish bottom so the crows can get picks 1 & 19 - I just can't see how they could rise out of the bottom 3 this year

Back to my original question, where did you have North, Pies, Saints finishing this year
 
Jan 31, 2007
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But if we take it on face value that most teams will have a reasonable run with injury ... Carlton have just come off of a 2 win season ...

It’s odd to see these two points come one not long after the other. Carlton having a reasonable run with injury, which you’ve suggested we take on face value, will look much different to the teams they had running out last year.

I get it, Crows posters want Carlton to be very much the same side they were last year, while the Crows to turn it around with an automatic rise back up the ladder, and who knows, it may turn out that way; but the fact is there’s also a lot of potential upside with Carlton if they can get close to their best 22 fit and firing on the park each week.
 
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