Sydney Swans 2019 Season

[Macpotata]

What do you guys make of the Swans this year? Many are predicting the Swannies to sink after getting pummelled at home against the GWS in last years finals. They certainly had some sub-par performances towards the latter stages of 2018. Hannebery departed to the Saints in the off season etc. The fact is however that at 3 quarter time during their last home and away game against Hawthorn { Missing Luke Parker and Buddy Franklin ) Sydney were in the top 4. They lost a close one by 9 points which edged them out of double chance contention, leaving them left to duke it out with cross town rivals the Giants 2 weeks later. The Swans still possess big game players and top class talent in Josh Kenneddy, Luke Parker, Kieron Jack, Issac Heeney and of course, Buddy Franklin. McVeigh is as solid as they come, Sinclair has proved his worth both in the ruck and up forward, and with young gun Luke Ronke also able to provide a spark in front of goal. The inclusion of Dan Menzel further strengthens their awesome artillery up front. In addition, Papley, Florent, Mills are some young talent who also provide various avenues along with Aliir Aliir solid up back. Others that further balance the team are Lloyd, Naismith, Rampe, Cunningham and Reid. Reid's a big bodied player and can also contribute to the scoreboard when he's fit and healthy.

I'm not sure on the Swans myself tbh. But can we really discount their powerhouse talent and their consistency in making the finals? I wouldn't sleep on the Swans just yet.

What do you forecast for Sydney in 2019?

 

[syl97]

I think a lot will depend on how teams like Adelaide, Port, Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood and West Coast perform. They all live up to their best, then Sydney will struggle. Those teams drop off (like they are prone to), then teams like Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney will be ready to take their place in the eight.

 

[RUNVS]

Jack/Hannebery out of the midfield and Mills/Heeney into the midfield will help a lot. As will the return of Reid/Naismith/Melican.

I am also hopeful that guys like Papley, Hayward and Florent will all take a step forward, as they all showed promising signs in the match against GWS last week. Florent and Papley especially looked to have really benefited from another full preseaon. Menzel, assuming he is fit, should be able to help the younger forwards as well, and also give some relief to Buddy.

Blakey looks very promising as well, having kicked 3 very nice goals against GWS, though I expect he will only have cameos in 2019, as it would not be fair to expect more of him than that.

I just HOPE like hell that Longmire updates the gameplan as we won't be going very far in 2019 if we are still playing the same way we have the last few years.

 

[Macpotata]

Jack/Hannebery out of the midfield and Mills/Heeney into the midfield will help a lot. As will the return of Reid/Naismith/Melican.

I am also hopeful that guys like Papley, Hayward and Florent will all take a step forward, as they all showed promising signs in the match against GWS last week. Florent and Papley especially looked to have really benefited from another full preseaon. Menzel, assuming he is fit, should be able to help the younger forwards as well, and also give some relief to Buddy.

Blakey looks very promising as well, having kicked 3 very nice goals against GWS, though I expect he will only have cameos in 2019, as it would not be fair to expect more of him than that.

I just HOPE like hell that Longmire updates the gameplan as we won't be going very far in 2019 if we are still playing the same way we have the last few years.

Yeah I think Horse will finally get with the times and evolve. He knows he has too. Been found out too many times now. Even if he hasn't woken up, the assistant coaches would drill it into him.

 

[Macpotata]

I think a lot will depend on how teams like Adelaide, Port, Essendon, Melbourne, Collingwood and West Coast perform. They all live up to their best, then Sydney will struggle. Those teams drop off (like they are prone to), then teams like Hawthorn, Geelong and Sydney will be ready to take their place in the eight.

Yep good call.

Interesting on the Swans last year against sides in the 8.

Beat WCE the reigning premiers twice ( and snapped their 10 match winning run )
Beat the Pies
Split proceedings with the Hawks
Lost to a red hot Richmond at Etihad
1-1 with Geelong
Beat Melbourne
Beat GWS twice

11 games against with a 8-3 win/loss record. Very, very good showing.

 

[RUNVS]

Yeah I think Horse will finally get with the times and evolve. He knows he has too. Been found out too many times now. Even if he hasn't woken up, the assistant coaches would drill it into him.

Absorbing pressure in defence just does not work in finals because the teams we come up against are too powerful in the forward line for that plan to work and just giving really good teams forward 50 entries is a recipe for disaster.

We were being destroyed in the midfield though in 2018, as Hannebery/Jack were putrid, and Kennedy was well down on form as well. Having Mills and Heeney in the midfield should help out a lot. I know no one but Sydney and GWS fans saw Mills playing last week but he played the entire game in the midfield and he looked incredibly natural in and under, like it was where he was supposed to be.

 

[Macpotata]

Absorbing pressure in defence just does not work in finals because the teams we come up against are too powerful in the forward line for that plan to work and just giving really good teams forward 50 entries is a recipe for disaster.

We were being destroyed in the midfield though in 2018, as Hannebery/Jack were putrid, and Kennedy was well down on form as well. Having Mills and Heeney in the midfield should help out a lot. I know no one but Sydney and GWS fans saw Mills playing last week but he played the entire game in the midfield and he looked incredibly natural in and under, like it was where he was supposed to be.

Very good player Mills. Pacy, solid. From all accounts set for a big season this year.

 

[RUNVS]

Yep good call.

Interesting on the Swans last year against sides in the 8.

Beat WCE the reigning premiers twice ( and snapped their 10 match winning run )
Beat the Pies
Split proceedings with the Hawks
Lost to a red hot Richmond at Etihad
1-1 with Geelong
Beat Melbourne
Beat GWS twice

11 games against with a 8-3 win/loss record. Very, very good showing.

Swans season will be decided by the younger players, and if they step up.

Guys like Florent, Heeney, Mills, Hayward, Papley, perhaps even Ronke and Melican. They are all looking to be very promising, often even really good, but if they can improve their games further in 2019 then it will help a lot.

 

[Macpotata]

Swans season will be decided by the younger players, and if they step up.

Guys like Florent, Heeney, Mills, Hayward, Papley, perhaps even Ronke and Melican. They are all looking to be very promising, often even really good, but if they can improve their games further in 2019 then it will help a lot.

I'm sure they will. They've got some experience under their belt { Some more than others } and in typical Swans fashion will improve with time. I think the blokes you mentioned are very good players, players that will take that next step in their footballing careers.

Hayward's one I forgot to mention.

 

[Freomaniac]

Hard to predict to be honest. I don't see them finish bottom 6.

I can see them struggle and finish 10th-12th.

I can also see them make another grand final if things go their way.

 

[Dr Tigris]

If their older mids get their mojo back and the younger guys live up to their promise then the Swans are back big time.

But if the older guys slide a bit then big trouble. I'm predicting the Swans will be good in 2019. But at some point there fairly large crew of older talent will slide. I just suspect it won't be 2019.

 

[Ok Boomer]

I have them 6-10. Still extremely tough to beat most weeks but lacking the out and out quality aside from Buddy. If they finish higher, I wouldn't be overly surprised though. They outplayed us twice last year.

I'm a little bit concerned about Buddy too and niggling injuries. Hopefully he is 100% fit through the year.

 

[RUNVS]

If their older mids get their mojo back and the younger guys live up to their promise then the Swans are back big time.

But if the older guys slide a bit then big trouble. I'm predicting the Swans will be good in 2019. But at some point there fairly large crew of older talent will slide. I just suspect it won't be 2019.

We aren't actually doing too badly in that area actually, despite the actual names.

McVeigh (33.8) - Very smart user of the ball, but missed quite a few games in recent years so we know how to play without him.
Grundy (32.8) - Already talk on the Swans board about if we should go with Melican/Aliir instead of Grundy.
Franklin (32.0) - Admittedly very hard to replace, though when he was not playing the Swans went okay, and Buddy was injured for most of 2018 so he should actually be better in 2019. Will also be helped out with Reid/Blakey/Menzel and hopefully McCartin as he essentially had very little tall help in 2018.
Jack (31.7) - Will hopefully be no where near our best 22 in 2019, and was a massive liability in 2018.
Smith (30.8) - Not easy to replace, but isn't quite the player now that he was a few years ago.
Kennedy (30.8) - Had a down year in 2018, which I hope was through injury.

Take out every player over 30 in the Swans team and it still looks like this

FB: Colin O'Riordan, Aliir Aliir, Dane Rampe
HB: Jake Lloyd, Lewis Melican, Jackson Thurlow
C: Zak Jones, Luke Parker, Oliver Florent
HF: Tom Papley, Sam Ried, Will Hayward
FF: Ben Ronke, Callum Sinclair, Daniel Menzel
R: Sam Naismith, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills
I/C: George Hewett, Nick Blakey, Harry Cunningham, Jordan Dawson

I must admit I also love the look of Justin McInerney as well, he looked great in our preseason game, but I am not including him as no one other than some Swans fans would have heard of him. I also liked how Ryan Clarke played.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Yep good call.

Interesting on the Swans last year against sides in the 8.

Beat WCE the reigning premiers twice ( and snapped their 10 match winning run )
Beat the Pies
Split proceedings with the Hawks
Lost to a red hot Richmond at Etihad
1-1 with Geelong
Beat Melbourne
Beat GWS twice

11 games against with a 8-3 win/loss record. Very, very good showing.

We won the one that mattered pretty easily though. We certainly wanted ti win the H/A games but they didn't have an extra gear in September.

All I'm sure about next year is we'll have two very tough games. After 2015 when they straight settled everyone had the Swans falling, but they came back and made the GF in 2016 with two great finals wins.

Thus year people seem reluctant to write them off and rightly so.

RUNVS majes sense in what he says.

I just wonder if Heeney will ever be pidgeon holed as a midfielder though. A rare talent like Heeney who is very good at so many things probably always get's used in different roles as the game situation requires. No doubt coaches love his flexibility.

I do get the notion of playing him predominantly in the engine room though.

 

[RUNVS]

RUNVS majes sense in what he says.

I just wonder if Heeney will ever be pidgeon holed as a midfielder though. A rare talent like Heeney who is very good at so many things probably always get's used in different roles as the game situation requires. No doubt coaches love his flexibility.

I do get the notion of playing him predominantly in the engine room though.

The problem with players who are moved around a lot is they can be good in those new positions, but they are rarely great. A player usually only becomes great if they are settled in the one position and are not moved around several times a game. I very much want to see Mills and Heeney in the engine room for 2019, with Heeney only moving forward every so often for rests.

 

[RUNVS]

Also to me this is what the Swans need to correct in 2019, as our midfield just did not give the supply our forwards needed, and also gave the opposition forwards way too many opportunities to score

Here are the inside 50's for 2018

Round 1 vs West Coast - 52 to 60
Round 2 vs Port Adelaide - 52 to 52
Round 3 vs GWS - 50 to 54
Round 4 vs Bulldogs - 42 to 60
Round 5 vs Adelaide - 64 to 48
Round 6 vs Geelong - 52 to 52
Round 7 vs North Melbourne - 58 to 48
Round 8 vs Hawthorn - 39 to 63
Round 9 vs Fremantle - 60 to 50
Round 10 vs Brisbane - 51 to 56
Round 11 vs Carlton - 62 to 41
Round 12 vs St Kilda - 49 to 52
Round 13 vs West Coast - 52 to 63
Round 15 vs Richmond - 43 to 61
Round 16 vs Geelong - 46 to 59
Round 17 vs North Melbourne - 52 to 51
Round 18 vs Gold Coast - 48 to 61
Round 19 vs Essendon - 72 to 39
Round 20 vs Collingwood - 50 to 52
Round 21 vs Melbourne - 43 to 60
Round 22 vs GWS - 55 to 49
Round 23 vs Hawthorn - 53 to 50
Elimination Final vs GWS - 38 to 63

So that means
7 wins
14 losses
2 draws

I mean our midfield even allowed Gold Coast and St Kilda to beat them in 2018, so it isn't surprising we could not get a winning score in the important games.

 

[KermitJagger]

Swans will be there, Mills will be back and in great form, Heeney will continue to take steps forward.

If their core players continue to play good footy and they can get a full season out of Reid and Menzel, they'll be much more dangerous forward. They're already up there as possibly the best one-on-one defensive units, so the rule changes will suit them if they can stem the tide of inside 50s they suffered last year.

Menzel was an elite one-on-one forward, we all know Buddy is. If the Sydney contested, clearance beast can wake up from its slumber they'll be right as rain. Don't bet on them sinking just yet.

 

[Dr Tigris]

We aren't actually doing too badly in that area actually, despite the actual names.

McVeigh (33.8) - Very smart user of the ball, but missed quite a few games in recent years so we know how to play without him.
Grundy (32.8) - Already talk on the Swans board about if we should go with Melican/Aliir instead of Grundy.
Franklin (32.0) - Admittedly very hard to replace, though when he was not playing the Swans went okay, and Buddy was injured for most of 2018 so he should actually be better in 2019. Will also be helped out with Reid/Blakey/Menzel and hopefully McCartin as he essentially had very little tall help in 2018.
Jack (31.7) - Will hopefully be no where near our best 22 in 2019, and was a massive liability in 2018.
Smith (30.8) - Not easy to replace, but isn't quite the player now that he was a few years ago.
Kennedy (30.8) - Had a down year in 2018, which I hope was through injury.

Take out every player over 30 in the Swans team and it still looks like this

FB: Colin O'Riordan, Aliir Aliir, Dane Rampe
HB: Jake Lloyd, Lewis Melican, Jackson Thurlow
C: Zak Jones, Luke Parker, Oliver Florent
HF: Tom Papley, Sam Ried, Will Hayward
FF: Ben Ronke, Callum Sinclair, Daniel Menzel
R: Sam Naismith, Isaac Heeney, Callum Mills
I/C: George Hewett, Nick Blakey, Harry Cunningham, Jordan Dawson

I must admit I also love the look of Justin McInerney as well, he looked great in our preseason game, but I am not including him as no one other than some Swans fans would have heard of him. I also liked how Ryan Clarke played.

Made my point quite well really. 6 over 30. Those guys are all quality. As long as they do their thing the Swans have depth and talent. At some point they will go. But I wonder if 2019 is the year. A bit more injury a rejigged game plan luck and the Swans coudl go far.

But after 30 sometimes the drop off is sudden and steep. Plenty of really good teams lose a couple of those older guys and drop quickly. Interesting times really.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

The problem with players who are moved around a lot is they can be good in those new positions, but they are rarely great. A player usually only becomes great if they are settled in the one position and are not moved around several times a game. I very much want to see Mills and Heeney in the engine room for 2019, with Heeney only moving forward every so often for rests.

That can happen but I think more with younger players. It did with Tomlinson for us who is giid at lots of things but wasn't elite at any. I think we had to leave him as a key back for 18 months to allow him to settle and develop.

Heeney is approaching maturity now and in today's game multiple roles are the norm.

We're probably not that far apart though. Midfield and some time forward makes sense to me.

 

[NoobPie]

Also to me this is what the Swans need to correct in 2019, as our midfield just did not give the supply our forwards needed, and also gave the opposition forwards way too many opportunities to score

Here are the inside 50's for 2018

Round 1 vs West Coast - 52 to 60
Round 2 vs Port Adelaide - 52 to 52
Round 3 vs GWS - 50 to 54
Round 4 vs Bulldogs - 42 to 60
Round 5 vs Adelaide - 64 to 48
Round 6 vs Geelong - 52 to 52
Round 7 vs North Melbourne - 58 to 48
Round 8 vs Hawthorn - 39 to 63
Round 9 vs Fremantle - 60 to 50
Round 10 vs Brisbane - 51 to 56
Round 11 vs Carlton - 62 to 41
Round 12 vs St Kilda - 49 to 52
Round 13 vs West Coast - 52 to 63
Round 15 vs Richmond - 43 to 61
Round 16 vs Geelong - 46 to 59
Round 17 vs North Melbourne - 52 to 51
Round 18 vs Gold Coast - 48 to 61
Round 19 vs Essendon - 72 to 39
Round 20 vs Collingwood - 50 to 52
Round 21 vs Melbourne - 43 to 60
Round 22 vs GWS - 55 to 49
Round 23 vs Hawthorn - 53 to 50
Elimination Final vs GWS - 38 to 63

So that means
7 wins
14 losses
2 draws

I mean our midfield even allowed Gold Coast and St Kilda to beat them in 2018, so it isn't surprising we could not get a winning score in the important games.

I don't think it is as simple to say that the inside 50 differential is a direct measure of midfield dominance. The Swans have traditionally often conceded shallow, wide entries while getting numbers back and absorbing pressure to prevent easy shots from the corridor. Conversely, Melbourne seems to have a very direct game plan. As a result the Swans could concede inside 50s by -17 and still beat them in Round 21

 

[The King!]

Need a new coach

 

[master bate]

FB: Smith, Rampe, Melican
HB: Lloyd, Aliir, Mills
C: Z Jones/Ryan Clarke, Kennedy, Florent
HF: Papley, Reid, Hayward
FF: Ronke, Franklin, Parker
R: Naismith, Heeney, Hewett
I/C: Z Jones/McVeigh, outside run likee Cunningham, 2 forwards: whatever is best out of Dawson/Blakey/Sinclair/Menzel/McCartin, role playing mid/forward like Robbie Fox

Depth: Grundy, Jack, McVeigh, Thurlow, plenty of kids. I say plenty of kids because they have a fair few talented ones but it's hard to know who will get their chance.

Personally I think they are mad to move Mills. I reckon Mills, Rampe and Lloyd form the basis of a great backline and then you free up Aliir, lock down with Melican (who should go well past Grundy), Smith does his job and either McVeigh does his or is replaced. I like the addition of Ryan Clarke as the typical Swans type of player. I'd leave Zac Jones at half back where he can play with the game infront of him and use Clarke as a winger who runs all day, a bit of shaky ball use wouldn't concern me that much.

I think their midfield struggles are over hyped. Naismith should help. Papley and Heeney can be the answers there and Kennedy and Parker don't have to be world beaters. Florent can rotate on ball as well. Parker should be a forward who goes mid to rotate with Papley/Heeney I think. They can get a really nice mid/forward rotation happening.

The forward line is what concerns me. It's still going to be Buddy and a lot unknown quantities. Is Reid going to be right? Can they play 2 rucks. Menzel/Blakey as the 3rd or 4th tall marking options? Can Parker be a Josh Caddy type. Can Ronke and Hayward be consistent.

That said, it comes down to game style as well. If their backline is healthy again and the midfield is younger and quicker then it's time they drastically increase the tempo and attacking flair with which they play. Do that and they are still good enough to go deep. Play conservatively and they'll still win their share of games but if the season wears them down physically and mentally they could falter again.

4th-12th, most likely 5-8th.

 

[stevie26]

Pretty confident we will be bottom half of the eight together with the Hawks and Cats.

 

[blueiris]

They bore me they aren't a team I like to watch their game is built on pressure on the opposition think that they will drop this season as teams like Essendon Adelaide and possibly North pass them

 

[SBD Gonzalez]

Really hard to say. So many factors to consider.

Way much better team when Sam Reid is uninjured. But Sam Reid is simply rarely uninjured.

Naismith back will make a huge difference, as Sinclair was thrust into virtually solo ruck role with Naismith out for last season. Did it well, but we will have so much more flexibility if we can have the option of both of them on the paddock.

Game plan stale and one-dimensional.

Very disturbing lack of firepower for a team that boasts Franklin.

But, if we can keep Reid on the paddock and have some rucking choices, maybe both those two negatives then evaporate.

Factor in our uncanny ability to make finals, if not win premierships, and who knows???

Possibly the least certain I've been pre-season for a very long time. Every year I think we could nosedive, or we could be there in September, but this year that ambivalence is turbocharged.