Analysis Best & worst top 10 draft picks per draft number

[Alphonse_]

Cripps best no 13 right ?

 

[Alphonse_]

No denying Hodge is an out and out champion, but anyone saying he was a better player than St Nick is a peanut.

Honestly think Riewoldt was a better plater than Kernahan and Derm (and i loved Sticks)

Its hard to quantify who is GOAT in a 22 man sport, so i don't think flag success is the overriding factor in these type of debates

 

[WCE_phil]

A lot of people here too young to remember just how good some players were. While it doesn't fit the OP's timeline Matera was drafted at pick 4.

Peter Matera was pick 4 in the 89 draft. Easily the best player in premiership sides, norm smith medalist and a better player than the likes of Guy McKenna, Dean Kemp, Glen Jakovich, Brett Heady, Chris Mainwairing, Chris Lewis etc. etc.

Matera was easily the best player in a West Coast side that if you were to do a best 22 afl side of players since the afl draft started would almost certainly include Jakovich at CHB and McKenna on one HBF.

Matera is one one wing and Mcleod on the other in said side. While Pavlich is the dockers greatest ever player Matera is arguably the eagles and while Matera is arguably the greatest winger of the AFL era (his peak was unreal) Pavlich wouldn't even be the starting player is his position of choice in said side. As a CHF he is covered by Riewoldt and ability and influence in that role likely by Tredrea and Brown as well at least. Pav however covers Tredders and Brown in regards to his ability as a utility however.

 

[beta_condition]

Not denying he played midfield and to a pretty high standard. I'm arguing the definition of whether he owned any position other than half back.

I'm not an expert on his early years in midfield, but to my understanding it's debateable that he ever "owned" the position as midfielder. But perhaps winning an AA in a position is reason enough to argue "owning" a position.

Collected two AA jumpers while playing midfield, 2010 and 2005, 2005 was his first injury free season and when he able to train for a full pre season for the first time, thats why he had a slower start than Judd and Ball.

 

[citizen-erased]

Thought I'd start a thread to pick the all time best and worst top 10 draft picks. This is based on the best player selected at a given pick across every single draft (i.e. best #1 pick, worst #2 pick etc). Interested to see everyone's take. My best and worst is based from the point I started watching footy (circa 1993)

Best Top 10:
#1 - Nick Riewoldt (2000)
#2 - Jarryd Roughead (2004)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Matthew Pavlich (1999)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Chad Wingard (2011)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - McCartin (2014)
#2 - Gumbleton (2006)
#3 - Fewster (1995)
#4 - Walsh (2002)
#5 - McDougall (2000)
#6 - Thorp (2006)
#7 - Angwin (2000)
#8 - Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Molan (2001)
#10 - Dunn (2003)

In a way, fair enough on Gumby. But he was a knife edge from 1 that year. Injury killed his career.
I'd wager J O'Rourke as a bigger bust.

 

[Arr0w]

Thought I'd start a thread to pick the all time best and worst top 10 draft picks. This is based on the best player selected at a given pick across every single draft (i.e. best #1 pick, worst #2 pick etc). Interested to see everyone's take. My best and worst is based from the point I started watching footy (circa 1993)

Best Top 10:
#1 - Nick Riewoldt (2000)
#2 - Jarryd Roughead (2004)
#3 - Chris Judd (2001)
#4 - Matthew Pavlich (1999)
#5 - Lance Franklin (2004)
#6 - Chad Wingard (2011)
#7 - Joel Selwood (2006)
#8 - Jimmy Bartel (2001)
#9 - Chad Cornes (1997)
#10 - Patrick Dangerfield (2007)

Worst Top 10:
#1 - McCartin (2014)
#2 - Gumbleton (2006)
#3 - Fewster (1995)
#4 - Walsh (2002)
#5 - McDougall (2000)
#6 - Thorp (2006)
#7 - Angwin (2000)
#8 - Oakley-Nicholls (2005)
#9 - Molan (2001)
#10 - Dunn (2003)

My take is that pick 5 stands out as historically having the best strike rate in the top 10. So many superstars. Easily could come up with a best 22 of only pick 5's. Pick 6 has typically had a lower strike rate but the few standouts at this pick such as Winged, Macrae and Stephenson if he continues his promising start.

My worst 10 is based on output relative to others. The talent may not have been lacking but due to various factors such as recurring injuries, behavioural issues and unfulfilled potential, they have been included on this list. Pick 1 has not had any real spuds during my time watching footy. Their standing is based on relativity to others who have surpassed the number 1 pick. Paddy still has time on his side but I am basing it on output up until this point in time. He has talent but has been impacted by repeated concussion issues, various injuries and inconsistency in form.

Harsh on McCartin, medical history and early concussions

Still has a lot of time to show his worth

 

[captain cotch 9]

In a way, fair enough on Gumby. But he was a knife edge from 1 that year. Injury killed his career.
I'd wager J O'Rourke as a bigger bust.

Gumby was a way bigger bust that O'Rourke
Gumby was the 2nd coming and air to Lloyds thrown.

 

[eth-dog]

Gumby was a way bigger bust that O'Rourke
Gumby was the 2nd coming and air to Lloyds thrown.

Nah. O'Rourke played 21 games in 6 years as a #2 draft pick, never averaged over 17 disposals as a midfielder (bare minimum is 20) compared to Gumby averaging 1.3 goals/game over his career (not what you want, but meets the bare minimum standard as a key forward if they stay fit), and had nowhere near the injury worries that Gumby did. Bloke was a bona fide spud.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Gumby would have been a decent 150 game player as a bare minimum if he got a decent run at it.

O’Rourke was just a dud.

 

[citizen-erased]

Gumby was a way bigger bust that O'Rourke
Gumby was the 2nd coming and air to Lloyds thrown.

He was. but was more an injury bust than a bad draft decision.
Injury free, we'd be running Daniher and Gumby out as a forward spine. Shame

O'Rourke just wasn't up to AFL football.

 

[Jibroni]

Clayton Oliver GOAT No 4 selection.

Cale Morton & Jimmy Toumpas the worst.

 

[Milanista28]

Clayton Oliver GOAT No 4 selection.

Cale Morton & Jimmy Toumpas the worst.

Bont was 4 as well, He's got some company.

 

[Big_Birdy]

Bont was 4 as well, He's got some company.

Both still need to catch Matera and Pavlich. Not sure either will

 

[eth-dog]

Both still need to catch Matera and Pavlich. Not sure either will

And even JJK would be ahead of both.

 

[RedmanWasHere]

Luke Power vs Buddy Franklin vs Scott Pendlebury vs Travis Boak vs Jarrad McVeigh.

Pick 5.

Have at it.

 

[eth-dog]

Luke Power vs Buddy Franklin vs Scott Pendlebury vs Travis Boak vs Jarrad McVeigh.

Pick 5.

Have at it.

Buddy
Pendles

Power

McVeigh
Boak

You can't seriously be comparing the bottom 2, fine players as they are, to the top 2, can you?

 

[Big_Birdy]

Buddy
Pendles

Power

McVeigh
Boak

You can't seriously be comparing the bottom 2, fine players as they are, to the top 2, can you?

No you can’t. Would have them on the same level as Power though. All very good players

 

[PAFC_1870]

It may be my Melbourne bias talking but I believe Oliver and Salem will take over the 4 and 9 spots before long.

No way I'm letting that slide.

Chad Cornes is daylight ahead.

 

[Peel67skin]

Richard Tambling at 4 .

 

[Wild Bill]

Cripps best no 13 right ?

There have been some good 13's - Bob Murphy, NDS, Hurn and Jack Riewoldt. But unless Cripps has a disastrous run with injury he will be the best 13.

 

[Present Not Past]

Is it fair to not include Hodge yet include Franklin when they both benefitted from being in the same great team at the same time?

 

[Socrates2]

There have been some good 13's - Bob Murphy, NDS, Hurn and Jack Riewoldt. But unless Cripps has a disastrous run with injury he will be the best 13.

Jack Riewoldt is a mile ahead of Cripps and it will remain that way.

 

[Wild Bill]

Jack Riewoldt is a mile ahead of Cripps and it will remain that way.

Tipping Cripps to end up with more than 3AAs and 2 B&Fs.

 

[Virgin Dog]

And even JJK would be ahead of both.

Bont was 4 as well, He's got some company.

Both still need to catch Matera and Pavlich. Not sure either will

I guess what you're all saying is - Oliver isn't remotely close to the GOAT for Pick 4? I know I'd have Kennedy, Bont, Matera and Pavlich all ahead of Oliver.

There's also argument for Andrew Gaff, Scott Lucas and Justin Leppitsch, depending on how you rate each of them

 

[Virgin Dog]

Jack Riewoldt is a mile ahead of Cripps and it will remain that way.

Classic team bias, of course Riewoldt is ahead of Cripps right now, but at the rate he is going, Cripps will be so far ahead of Riewoldt that there won't even be debate, unlike cases like Hodge vs Nick Riewoldt