Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

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Why can’t he be front loading our current list to ensure we have heaps of room over the next few years to pay more players?
Regardless of whether we are frontloading currently, or backloading later, the efect is the same. We have the space to sign Coniglio (whether that is front loaded or backloaded or balanced).
 

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Seriously dude, screw draft picks this year and next. We dont need them. Our list is chock a block full of 1st round picks. We've been hitting the draft hard the past 4 drafts and trading in 20 year old former 1st round picks to add to the ones we've drafted.



https://outline.com/LN6cXT

We cant keep going back to that same well. Adding more kids doesnt help us climb the ladder. It's time to shift in our trading and drafting strategy ('Phase 2') towards trading in players (and obtaining them via F/A) to fill list spots and add established A grade talent around those 19 top 20 picks already on our list.

This year our 1st is linked to Adelaide, and next year you would hope we would be rising up the ladder. We trade both of them for a gun player in a heartbeat.

The only way we use our 1st this year and next year is if we cant lure any A graders to agree to sign with us. Otherwise, they're getting used on trades.

We've been banking cap space for this very reason for years now, and have everyone locked away on long term deals, and have 3 big name retirements (Simmo, Murph and Thomas) to open up even more cap space and list spots that will need to be filled with equal or greater talent.

It's always been part of the plan. Go to the draft for 3 years, trade players out, build a core of 18-21 year olds in those 3 years (while banking cap space) and then shift gears to adding free agents and A grade players in via trade and F/A.

Im all but convinced we're all but done with the draft for the next 2-3 years.

Never said to go back to the draft exclusively, it is a balance of list management

Of course we will target FA's, and mature players, like we did during the last period

SOS will not sell the farm and will continue to bring in quality youth with more senior type of a better calibre

You don't need marque players to rebuild a list, Tigers did it, so did the Demons
 
Not arguing that point and agree with the strategy.

Just wondering why so many people say we can front load contacts for new players?

  • Well we know we don't have a player in at least the top 15 pay cheques even after extending Cripps with a pay rise - that's open source information.
  • We know we have an unusual concentration of younger players who are not yet established, and will be on relatively low salaries
  • We know that we have cycled through semi mature bit players never intended to be long term
  • We know that to reach minimum required TPP we have been salary dumping onto players who have no negotiating position to continue at that rate of pay down the track. Lobbe is one example.
  • We know that we have extended young players' contracts early. Which is cheaper than waiting until they come up for renewal.
It is as near certain as is possible that right now we are paying minimum required TPP.
 
Top 25 each year?
Sell off a first round pick and we should be out of that region.

Just seems to me we have to target the right more-senior types for a year or two.
Players that fill an immediate year rather than scouting for future talent. Keep saying it but it's not more kids we need right now.

Very much this. I seem to recall one of our ITKs reporting the same thing from inside the club around trade / draft time when people were floating all those scenarios about trading pick 1 for multiple top 10 picks.

Would be surprised to see us take more than the mandated minimum number of first round selections (is it 1 or 2 every 4 years?) for the foreseeable future.
 
Very much this. I seem to recall one of our ITKs reporting the same thing from inside the club around trade / draft time when people were floating all those scenarios about trading pick 1 for multiple top 10 picks.

Would be surprised to see us take more than the mandated minimum number of first round selections (is it 1 or 2 every 4 years?) for the foreseeable future.

It does depend as to what may show up via trade and what one thinks may be there in the third round of the draft.
Don't see much tradable commodity for us again this year, so trading players for picks may not be on the cards again.

So, Adelaides pick is already primed for a player. I feel it was when we did the Stocker deal, but of course things can change.
If we don't strike the right deal with that pick, we take it to the draft. We don't give it away just for the sake of acquiring maturity.

We have no second but do have two thirds. Can see those thirds being used for these 'plug a hole' players.
They don't have to be the best of the best, but just best 22 gap-fillers.

Future picks are tricky though. They're rarely worth what they may be come next years draft.
Guess that may depend on where we finish and for the thirst others may have for that pick. Have to look at discounted rate though.

Live trading does throw a bit of a spanner into the works, because it's appealing going in to see what can be extracted. Who knows?
 
2 first rounders for Coniglio is irresponsible trading unless you are talking both as late first rounders.

Everyone forgets the age factor. He will be 26 next year and like a car has used up half his elite shelf life.

So put up 4-5 years of Coniglio versus 16 years of Cripps (13) and Fisher (27) as an example. Swap out Cripps for C Curnow or Mckay if you want.

It is just dumb.

If Coniglio is like Shiel and attracts huge interest, just stay out of it.

Find an experienced role player for a late first rounder.

Carlton HAS ENOUGH TALENT already. Just need physical experienced support.

Finding a role player with a late first rounder allows us to also draft one good kid to keep the right age profile going forward.
 
It does depend as to what may show up via trade and what one thinks may be there in the third round of the draft.
Don't see much tradable commodity for us again this year, so trading players for picks may not be on the cards again.

So, Adelaides pick is already primed for a player. I feel it was when we did the Stocker deal, but of course things can change.
If we don't strike the right deal with that pick, we take it to the draft. We don't give it away just for the sake of acquiring maturity.

We have no second but do have two thirds. Can see those thirds being used for these 'plug a hole' players.
They don't have to be the best of the best, but just best 22 gap-fillers.

Future picks are tricky though. They're rarely worth what they may be come next years draft.
Guess that may depend on where we finish and for the thirst others may have for that pick. Have to look at discounted rate though.

Live trading does throw a bit of a spanner into the works, because it's appealing going in to see what can be extracted. Who knows?

True. Plans can always fall through, players decide they don't want to come to us, etc. Hopefully an improved on-field performance will help with the latter.
 

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2 first rounders for Coniglio is irresponsible trading unless you are talking both as late first rounders.

Everyone forgets the age factor. He will be 26 next year and like a car has used up half his elite shelf life.

So put up 4-5 years of Coniglio versus 16 years of Cripps (13) and Fisher (27) as an example. Swap out Cripps for C Curnow or Mckay if you want.

It is just dumb.

If Coniglio is like Shiel and attracts huge interest, just stay out of it.

Find an experienced role player for a late first rounder.

Carlton HAS ENOUGH TALENT already. Just need physical experienced support.

Finding a role player with a late first rounder allows us to also draft one good kid to keep the right age profile going forward.


Aaaaaahhhhhh...........Free Agent.

Coniglio is a Free Agent.
 
Mal, you talk about all this money when Simmo, Murphy and Daisy retire

Daisy and Simmo are on 1 year deals, Murphy's 2 year deal would be a fraction of what he was on.

Simmo is easily on upwards of 600k. And he's earnt every penny.

Murphy would be on at least 400k (average salary is 360k) and probably around 500k. Thomas woud be on slightly less, and Levi probably around 250k

Murphy, Simpson, Thomas and Casboult combined would be on a combined 1.5 - 2 million, and none of those four are going to be on the list from 2021 onwards, with Kruezer gone not long after.

Mate, if we're paying more than 95 percent of the cap with our current list (a near complete lack of quality senior players aged 24-28, close to zero star power in the 28+ age range, and most of our list aged 18-23, and all drafted in the past 4 years) SOS should be sacked for list management incompetence.

List management involves managing TPP and the Cap, and balancing salaries to ensure that we have the space to get the players we need when we need them (and to meet any salary demands of key players at the same time when out of contract).
 
2 first rounders for Coniglio is irresponsible trading unless you are talking both as late first rounders.

Everyone forgets the age factor. He will be 26 next year and like a car has used up half his elite shelf life.

So put up 4-5 years of Coniglio versus 16 years of Cripps (13) and Fisher (27) as an example. Swap out Cripps for C Curnow or Mckay if you want.

It is just dumb.

I wholly disagree with your post.

It would completely be worth it. We get those 4-5 years of him in his prime during our premiership window. If it gets us #17 then it was 2 x 1st round picks well spent.

We cant just keep getting in more and more 18 year old kids, especially not when we need to be moving up the ladder, and then winning flags when we get there. We need to supplement the 20 or so top 20 picks (most of them 18-23) with 2-3 elite or A grade senior players.

We've done the drafting thing. For 4 years now, we've agressively traded players out (Henderson, Tuohy, Gibbs, Menzel, Bell, Yarran) for extra 1st round picks.

In just 4 drafts we've used 9 x 1st round picks (inlcuding 2 x pick 1's): Wietering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, SPS, Dow, LOB, Walsh, Stocker. We've also aquired (via trades) Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett, Setterfield and Kennedy (plus Lang and Garlett) who were also 1st round picks from that same period.

It's time to start to add some quality senior talent to that list (in the 24-26 year old age range, an area where we are sorely lacking). Doing so will help with the development of those kids we have, and push us closer to #17.

We cant keep going back to the same well. SOS made this pretty clear when he traded out our future 1st next year. We'll be aggressive this trade period, and rightly so.
 
I wholly disagree with your post.

It would completely be worth it. We get those 4-5 years of him in his prime during our premiership window. If it gets us #17 then it was 2 x 1st round picks well spent.

We cant just keep getting in more and more 18 year old kids, especially not when we need to be moving up the ladder, and then winning flags when we get there. We need to supplement the 20 or so top 20 picks (most of them 18-23) with 2-3 elite or A grade senior players.

We've done the drafting thing. For 4 years now, we've agressively traded players out (Henderson, Tuohy, Gibbs, Menzel, Bell, Yarran) for extra 1st round picks.

In just 4 drafts we've used 9 x 1st round picks (inlcuding 2 x pick 1's): Wietering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, SPS, Dow, LOB, Walsh, Stocker. We've also aquired (via trades) Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett, Setterfield and Kennedy (plus Lang and Garlett) who were also 1st round picks from that same period.

It's time to start to add some quality senior talent to that list (in the 24-26 year old age range, an area where we are sorely lacking). Doing so will help with the development of those kids we have, and push us closer to #17.

We cant keep going back to the same well. SOS made this pretty clear when he traded out our future 1st next year. We'll be aggressive this trade period, and rightly so.

We can, depending on a big name agreeing to terms or not. The side has been built mostly via the draft and is entering the prime age bracket in the next 2 years anyway. I think with a reasonable season we should get a 'yes' from a bigger name though.
 
Rumoured that Dustin Martin has a knee problem. Had scans today. Caddy won’t be playing round 1 nor Grigg. Lynch a maybe. Maybe the footy gods are starting to turn. #touchwood
ok if we just beat their best?
 
I wholly disagree with your post.

It would completely be worth it. We get those 4-5 years of him in his prime during our premiership window. If it gets us #17 then it was 2 x 1st round picks well spent.

We cant just keep getting in more and more 18 year old kids, especially not when we need to be moving up the ladder, and then winning flags when we get there. We need to supplement the 20 or so top 20 picks (most of them 18-23) with 2-3 elite or A grade senior players.

We've done the drafting thing. For 4 years now, we've agressively traded players out (Henderson, Tuohy, Gibbs, Menzel, Bell, Yarran) for extra 1st round picks.

In just 4 drafts we've used 9 x 1st round picks (inlcuding 2 x pick 1's): Wietering, McKay, Curnow, Cuningham, SPS, Dow, LOB, Walsh, Stocker. We've also aquired (via trades) Plowman, Marchbank, Pickett, Setterfield and Kennedy (plus Lang and Garlett) who were also 1st round picks from that same period.

It's time to start to add some quality senior talent to that list (in the 24-26 year old age range, an area where we are sorely lacking). Doing so will help with the development of those kids we have, and push us closer to #17.

We cant keep going back to the same well. SOS made this pretty clear when he traded out our future 1st next year. We'll be aggressive this trade period, and rightly so.

IMO and without real proof, I dont think SoS agrees with this way. Shiel being the example. Shiel offered 4-6 years and our premiership window is open from 2021.

Coniglio a free agent tho, SoS would sign in an instant.

Good arguments both ways i feel.
 
Waiting for organic growth is fraught with danger, if we can improve the list now then we have to do it. (seem to remember during the Ratten era we waited for 'organic' growth).

There are a million 'ifs' with the current talent on our list - there aren't as many 'ifs' with bringing in proven talent.

Also bringing in talent now could help us snatch a flag early as the Hawks '08 and Dogs more recently did.
 
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