Bluemour Discussion Thread XV - Facts Not Welcome

[Dadda Dave]

At this rate rd 1 will be a walk in the park
We will be top of the ladder where we belong..

 

[IronMan29]

GWS are all but certain to match any bid for Coniglio.

Our attention should really be on re-signing Kreuzer. However, if he wanted to chase success at another club, I wouldn't begrudge him for it. He has been a great player for us for a long time.

Kreuzer won't be going anywhere

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[BJuddy]

I must see a bigger upside in Walsh Dow SPS Fisher Stocker O’Brien Kennedy Charlie Setterfield in 2 years than many others

I see the upside in all those you have listed too.

But do we rest with a 'could be great' or do we go for an 'IS great'

 

[BluesRule]

Coniglio would be good - very good. A midfield of Cripps, Coniglo and Walsh is borderline ridiculous.

Actually almost hope Conigilo, Kelly et al will stay at GWS, would be s**t for the comp if they miss their window and all the players leave for a flag elsewhere. To be fair to that club they've done everything right from scratch - seemed to have built a good culture, not too difficult to trade with, don't hold kids to their mercy (except that forward that went to Freo), play a good brand. Wouldn't mind if those kids originally drafted there won a flag and played their career out there.

GWS can win a flag this year (mission accomplished!) and then Cogs can join us for another flag in 2020.

 

[Arr0w]

Cogs.

He displaces Polson in the HFF (with rotations through the guts). That leaves Polson and Stocker duking it out for Murphys spot when he retires the year after.

LOB, Newman, Schumacher and Williamson are in contention for Simpsons spot when he retires, and Docherty comes back.

We need A grade talent on the list (established A grade talent; no more 18-21 year olds) to help the kids take the next step.

Im happy with the kids we have on the list at present. We couldnt have gone harder at the draft (and trading in more kids) than we have over the past 4 drafts. It's been unprecedented the amount of list turn-over we've had, all of whom have been replaced by 18-21 year old draftees or 2nd year players (also 1st round draftees) from GWS. We've brought in something like 16 or 17 1st round draft picks from 2014-18 the past 4 years alone.

We literally have more than the expansion clubs now, and they're pretty much all 18-22 years of age.

Now they need development, and we need to supplement that list with 26 year olds (whom we have none of) to assist that development and push this side up the ladder.

Next 2-3 years, trades and free agents is priority 1, 2 and 3. Quality trades, and quality free agents in the 24-26 age bracket. Elite or A grade talent only; no more place holders, moneyball picks or fringe players.. After that 2-3 year period, we can go back to a more balanced approach of hitting the draft and list supplementation via Free agency (plus list management will change with our young kids coming into larger salaries as they develop and their contracts increase).

Thanks Mal, I understand where you are coming from and it confirms my thoughts, as I seem to recall you posting similar about Kelly and Shiel last year. It seems many people are only really interested in the best players in the league, understandably. The strange thing, you seem to contradict yourself by selecting Cogs only yet later saying we need more elite/A grade talent in the 24-26 age bracket

The first phase of a rebuild is the easiest, while it requires courage to make the tough calls ( trading out quality in Yarran, Henderson, Gibbs, 2E), bringing in young talent at the expense of some short term wins, requires patience and total club buy in, which has now been completed. This next phase is actually the hardest, most crucial period. I agree we can no longer go back to the draft exclusively, but nor can we use all early picks over the next 3 years on established players or speeding our cap on just 1-2 players, it needs to be a strategic approach to youth and experience. I could become quite critical during this phase if we take the easy option/s


As mentioned earlier, most of the best, recent rebuilds have been sides like Demons and Tigers, adding slightly lower calibre senior players as they had already drafted their elite/A grade talent, as we have done. I would be ecstatic if the club landed Cogs, as not only does he bring elite talent, he also brings elite leadership.

Back to my hypothetical, if we had 1.4 million to spend each year, for the next 5 years and had to decide between 1 Cogs or 2-3 other FA's in Elliott, Thomlinson, Ellis, Newnes, Cunningham and Sheppard, I would take the latter, as we have already added our elite/A grade talent via our youth

I suspect our opinions will somewhat change come the end of the year, as some players will have unexpected rises, while others stagnate, either way, we are certainly on the right track

 

[HereComesJuddy]

Top 25 each year?
Sell off a first round pick and we should be out of that region.

Just seems to me we have to target the right more-senior types for a year or two.
Players that fill an immediate year rather than scouting for future talent. Keep saying it but it's not more kids we need right now.

I agree Harks.
We have enough kids on our list and im surprised we have a draft thread happening tbh.

I would happy send our 1st and 3rds off for players this year and happy to draft our 3 quota very late for mature agers.

- Coniglio would be amazing.
- Gresham another anazing player we should be offering the Adelaide pick up for.
- Taranto, a dream addition.
Then theres players like Martin, Billings, Caldwell etc that would be very handy additions.

Id even part with our 2020 1st for someone like Cerra or to be included as part of Taranto/Kelly.

We have plenty of kids imo. Taking 2 years off from the draft, chasing a FA or 2 along with adding quality and filling list needs should now be the way the recruitment team go about it.

The time to rise up the ladder is fast approaching. Whether we jump a little this year or not, i firmly believe with a successful trading period come the end of the year along with the development and growth of our kids, we will play finals next year. I honestly believe we will be challenging for the flag in 2021.

 

[Soapy V]

I see the upside in all those you have listed too.

But do we rest with a 'could be great' or do we go for an 'IS great'

Definitely don't rest but depends on what our priorities are at years end

 

[Arr0w]

I agree Harks.
We have enough kids on our list and im surprised we have a draft thread happening tbh.

I would happy send our 1st and 3rds off for players this year and happy to draft our 3 quota very late for mature agers.

- Coniglio would be amazing.
- Gresham another anazing player we should be offering the Adelaide pick up for.
- Taranto, a dream addition.
Then theres players like Martin, Billings, Caldwell etc that would be very handy additions.

Id even part with our 2020 1st for someone like Cerra or to be included as part of Taranto/Kelly.

We have plenty of kids imo. Taking 2 years off from the draft, chasing a FA or 2 along with adding quality and filling list needs should now be the way the recruitment team go about it.

The time to rise up the ladder is fast approaching. Whether we jump a little this year or not, i firmly believe with a successful trading period come the end of the year along with the development and growth of our kids, we will play finals next year. I honestly believe we will be challenging for the flag in 2021.

Juddy think you need to up the value if targeting mentioned players, as they won't come cheap

Gresham a mid 1st + a late 2nd

Taranto 2 x 1st, with a early 3rd coming back

Cerra an early 1st and 2nd

Kelly 2 x mid 1sts, only because he is OOC

 

[BluesRule]

Thanks Mal, I understand where you are coming from and it confirms my thoughts, as I seem to recall you posting similar about Kelly and Shiel last year. It seems many people are only really interested in the best players in the league, understandably. The strange thing, you seem to contradict yourself by selecting Cogs only yet later saying we need more elite/A grade talent in the 24-26 age bracket

The first phase of a rebuild is the easiest, while it requires courage to make the tough calls ( trading out quality in Yarran, Henderson, Gibbs, 2E), bringing in young talent at the expense of some short term wins, requires patience and total club buy in, which has now been completed. This next phase is actually the hardest, most crucial period. I agree we can no longer go back to the draft exclusively, but nor can we use all early picks over the next 3 years on established players or speeding our cap on just 1-2 players, it needs to be a strategic approach to youth and experience. I could become quite critical during this phase if we take the easy option/s


As mentioned earlier, most of the best, recent rebuilds have been sides like Demons and Tigers, adding slightly lower calibre senior players as they had already drafted their elite/A grade talent, as we have done. I would be ecstatic if the club landed Cogs, as not only does he bring elite talent, he also brings elite leadership.

Back to my hypothetical, if we had 1.4 million to spend each year, for the next 5 years and had to decide between 1 Cogs or 2-3 other FA's in Elliott, Thomlinson, Ellis, Newnes, Cunningham and Sheppard, I would take the latter, as we have already added our elite/A grade talent via our youth

I suspect our opinions will somewhat change come the end of the year, as some players will have unexpected rises, while others stagnate, either way, we are certainly on the right track

Great discussion and I like your thoughts, but....

I would still take Cogs (one A+) rather than the two A grade mids as we can only play 22 any week and have young depth in that area. Our destiny will be determined by Wins and players like Cogs make Wins more likely. Really want mature players with higher proven ceilings than our current young players potential ceilings.

However if our choice was we get Cogs or we can spend the excess $$$ for two needs in say Gresham (Trade) and Grundy (Trade prior to RFA 2020) then I would go the later. But it is bloody unlikely to happen.

 

[CJMB]

Do footy players get Long Service Leave? Murph and moreso Simmo would be laughing when they leave the club.

Just called retirement, pretty sure...

 

[Bamboo Harvester]

I would happy send our 1st and 3rds off for players this year and happy to draft our 3 quota very late for mature agers.

Just as an aside, one (or more) of the 3 quota can be the inclusion of a rookie list player onto the primary list.

 

[Soapy V]

I agree Harks.
We have enough kids on our list and im surprised we have a draft thread happening tbh.

I would happy send our 1st and 3rds off for players this year and happy to draft our 3 quota very late for mature agers.

- Coniglio would be amazing.
- Gresham another anazing player we should be offering the Adelaide pick up for.
- Taranto, a dream addition.
Then theres players like Martin, Billings, Caldwell etc that would be very handy additions.

Id even part with our 2020 1st for someone like Cerra or to be included as part of Taranto/Kelly.

We have plenty of kids imo. Taking 2 years off from the draft, chasing a FA or 2 along with adding quality and filling list needs should now be the way the recruitment team go about it.

The time to rise up the ladder is fast approaching. Whether we jump a little this year or not, i firmly believe with a successful trading period come the end of the year along with the development and growth of our kids, we will play finals next year. I honestly believe we will be challenging for the flag in 2021.

Yep. After the trade period I would be surprised if we have any picks prior to Pick 40. Of the three picks we will use 1 or 2 of them could be more mature players as well. Gibbons Goddard or LeBois could easily be upgraded

IMO we will throw this years and next years picks at established players to really top of our list. Next year we will still have really inexperienced players like Stocker Cottrell Finbar BSOS TDK Macreadie Schumacher that will be almost like first year players. Still a lot of very young talent. Then there is Docherty & Pickett that will be like adding new players

PS Any possible F/S coming through for this year?

 

[Eiffel 65]

Yep. After the trade period I would be surprised if we have any picks prior to Pick 40. Of the three picks we will use 1 or 2 of them could be more mature players as well. Gibbons Goddard or LeBois could easily be upgraded

IMO we will throw this years and next years picks at established players to really top of our list. Next year we will still have really inexperienced players like Stocker Cottrell Finbar BSOS TDK Macreadie Schumacher that will be almost like first year players. Still a lot of very young talent. Then there is Docherty & Pickett that will be like adding new players

PS Any possible F/S coming through for this year?

Don't think so.

Just the three brothers of current players.

 

[Foucault1989]

Juddy think you need to up the value if targeting mentioned players, as they won't come cheap

Gresham a mid 1st + a late 2nd

Taranto 2 x 1st, with a early 3rd coming back

Cerra an early 1st and 2nd

Kelly 2 x mid 1sts, only because he is OOC

Out of contract or not, Kelly would be a top 5 pick and a pick between 7- 11 at a bare minimum. Up and running he is a top 3 midfielder in the comp no question

 

[Jabba73]

Why are people assuming we can front load contracts? Do people know how our Salary Caps sits at the moment?

On the head of Andrew ‘Salary’ Walker of course.

 

[passmark]

Kelly (IMO) is so far in front of the others it’s not funny. His ability to cover the ground would be transformational for us.

 

[goreds]

Kelly (IMO) is so far in front of the others it’s not funny. His ability to cover the ground would be transformational for us.

Still the most important player on our radar...

We WILL give up this years and next years 1st for him and even a 2nd next year if needed.

If anyone thinks this is not a mile down the road in discussion then they are kidding themselves!

There is another which is being thrown around which would rate just as high as Kelly, so we have options and will deal, the rest of the comp knows we have the money and the picks and we are now a destination club as seen by player managers!

 

[ESKIE]

 

[Cripptonite]

Still the most important player on our radar...

We WILL give up this years and next years 1st for him and even a 2nd next year if needed.

If anyone thinks this is not a mile down the road in discussion then they are kidding themselves!

There is another which is being thrown around which would rate just as high as Kelly, so we have options and will deal, the rest of the comp knows we have the money and the picks and we are now a destination club as seen by player managers!

Good to hear! This is exactly what we should be doing. If we can land a Kelly or similar player it will really elevate us into contention and set us up for the next decade or so. I’m guessing/hoping the other playing is Coniglio Whitfield or Fyfe (yes I know he is contracted).

 

[Blue and Blue]

So Kelly is streets ahead of all, but theres another rates just as good?....ermm doesnt that mean Kelly isn't streets ahead......

 

[thylacine60]

On the head of Andrew ‘Salary’ Walker of course.

which in turn is balanced on the head of jake 'bailey' carlisle........

 

[BlueTongue]

Great discussion and I like your thoughts, but....

I would still take Cogs (one A+) rather than the two A grade mids as we can only play 22 any week and have young depth in that area. Our destiny will be determined by Wins and players like Cogs make Wins more likely. Really want mature players with higher proven ceilings than our current young players potential ceilings.

However if our choice was we get Cogs or we can spend the excess $$$ for two needs in say Gresham (Trade) and Grundy (Trade prior to RFA 2020) then I would go the later. But it is bloody unlikely to happen.

I think that these things become more probable with decent list management, rather than just $$ alone. Geelong, Hawthorn & Sydney have been the leaders in managing their list, and have always seemed to get their man when it comes to recruiting guns, but this is always at the expense of a Good player being delisted or Traded. For us to get Coniglio, Simpson & Murphy would probably both have to go.

It sounds easy, but the older loyal players don't always want to go (Sam Mitchell, Jordan Lewis, Steve Johnson, James Kelly, Rhyce Shaw etc.). The club needs to make it clear that sentiment will not stand in the way of success ,and even though these players are highly respected, there will come a time when they will need to make way for the next target to improve the list.

 

[Blue and Blue]

Those guys had flags to their name..very different...can't make that comparison. You dont chuck out the lifeblood of a club for the sake of it without paying a price as Nth Melbourne did.

 

[katmanblue]

Those guys had flags to their name..very different...can't make that comparison. You dont chuck out the lifeblood of a club for the sake of it without paying a price as Nth Melbourne did.

Members are the lifeblood of the club.

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[Blue and Blue]

Members are the lifeblood of the club.

On SM-N960F using BigFooty.com mobile app

And just look at the club..........needs a transfusion . A positive