No Oppo Supporters 2019 General AFL Discussion

[scaryness]

Loving the new rule changes so far

 

[caesar88]

They will kill us but I also have a feeling their impact will dwindle after the first third of the season.

 

[RUNVS]

Requirements to do well with the 6-6-6 rule

Dominant ruckman
Explosive midfielders
Midfielders willing to move the ball fast and take the game on

We don't have any of those things.

 

[caesar88]

Requirements to do well with the 6-6-6 rule

Dominant ruckman
Explosive midfielders
Midfielders willing to move the ball fast and take the game on

We don't have any of those things.

Third one is TBD in fairness

 

[swansfan51]

Some thoughts from today:

Paul Ahern was an incredible value pickup
Harris Andrews is a gun key position player for 22
Angus Brayshaw, already 3rd in the Brownlow last year and stepping up another notch

 

[caesar88]

Some thoughts from today:

Paul Ahern was an incredible value pickup
Harris Andrews is a gun key position player for 22
Angus Brayshaw, already 3rd in the Brownlow last year and stepping up another notch

Brayshaw is such a gun!!

 

[Olian]

Requirements to do well with the 6-6-6 rule

Dominant ruckman
Explosive midfielders
Midfielders willing to move the ball fast and take the game on

We don't have any of those things.

So true. Swans season is over before it started.

 

[swansfan51]

I like the look of Scrimshaw on (very) early evidence

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I like the look of Scrimshaw on (very) early evidence

Can you give a light analysis on how we might fare with the 6/6/6 rule compared to other top 8 teams or is it way to much work?

 

[swanssince2002]

Geewhiz Richmond only 16 points at the moment and its almost halfway into the 2nd quarter

 

[swansfan51]

Can you give a light analysis on how we might fare with the 6/6/6 rule compared to other top 8 teams or is it way to much work?

I just don't have the evidence for it at the moment, it would be great to see team heat maps and that sort of thing - that would give you a good start. Things I'd be looking for to make an informed analysis:

- heat map at centre bounces across 2018 and how did this compare to West Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond?
- what is our immediate movement profile after losing possession?
- what is our immediate movement profile after gaining possession via turnover?
These last 2 you can't see on TV as the angle is too tight
- what is our defensive and attacking win/loss/neutral percentage on 1-on-1 marking contests inside 50? (I have most of this data)

Without enough evidence and if you're happy with me just taking an educated guess:

We will be disadvantaged (not catastrophically) by the new rule. Our key defenders have always struggled in one-on-one contests against fast and high quality entries. That will be a concern in an enforced structure that makes it more difficult to generate a numerical advantage inside defensive 50. Conversely in attack we are not one of the premier teams at generating and winning one-on-one contests via fast and high quality entries. Indeed several of our most reliable strong marking targets are Heeney, Parker, and Kennedy, who will probably be in the midfield attempting to win the ball at the centre bounces. I also think we are a team that requires numbers in the square as we lack elite strength (Cripps, Fyfe, Martin) or skill (Mitchell, Neale, Viney) in ball-winners, Kennedy a hopeful exception.

But the negative impacts are only limited to the first 10-15 seconds, and we're above average at slowing the game down. It won't be a crippling change for us. I think the kick-ins rule will benefit us.

 

[RUNVS]

We will be disadvantaged (not catastrophically) by the new rule. Our key defenders have always struggled in one-on-one contests against fast and high quality entries. That will be a concern in an enforced structure that makes it more difficult to generate a numerical advantage inside defensive 50. Conversely in attack we are not one of the premier teams at generating and winning one-on-one contests via fast and high quality entries. Indeed several of our most reliable strong marking targets are Heeney, Parker, and Kennedy, who will probably be in the midfield attempting to win the ball at the centre bounces. I also think we are a team that requires numbers in the square as we lack elite strength (Cripps, Fyfe, Martin) or skill (Mitchell, Neale, Viney) in ball-winners, Kennedy a hopeful exception.

But the negative impacts are only limited to the first 10-15 seconds, and we're above average at slowing the game down. It won't be a crippling change for us. I think the kick-ins rule will benefit us.

I think that is true of most defences. You make a great point about the Swans not being great at high quality forward 50 entries as we don't move the ball fast enough for that. We give the opposition tonnes of time to setup their defence, and it makes it hard for our forwards to end up 1 on 1 with their opponent. It is a shame as well as I would back a lot of our forwards 1 on 1.

 

[Heeney2Franklin]

I just don't have the evidence for it at the moment, it would be great to see team heat maps and that sort of thing - that would give you a good start. Things I'd be looking for to make an informed analysis:

- heat map at centre bounces across 2018 and how did this compare to West Coast, Melbourne, Collingwood, Richmond?
- what is our immediate movement profile after losing possession?
- what is our immediate movement profile after gaining possession via turnover?
These last 2 you can't see on TV as the angle is too tight
- what is our defensive and attacking win/loss/neutral percentage on 1-on-1 marking contests inside 50? (I have most of this data)

Without enough evidence and if you're happy with me just taking an educated guess:

We will be disadvantaged (not catastrophically) by the new rule. Our key defenders have always struggled in one-on-one contests against fast and high quality entries. That will be a concern in an enforced structure that makes it more difficult to generate a numerical advantage inside defensive 50. Conversely in attack we are not one of the premier teams at generating and winning one-on-one contests via fast and high quality entries. Indeed several of our most reliable strong marking targets are Heeney, Parker, and Kennedy, who will probably be in the midfield attempting to win the ball at the centre bounces. I also think we are a team that requires numbers in the square as we lack elite strength (Cripps, Fyfe, Martin) or skill (Mitchell, Neale, Viney) in ball-winners, Kennedy a hopeful exception.

But the negative impacts are only limited to the first 10-15 seconds, and we're above average at slowing the game down. It won't be a crippling change for us. I think the kick-ins rule will benefit us.

Fantastic thankyou ive always thought team defence was our strength rather than one on one we dont have a Alex Rance or a Phil Davis, i just remember previous years all the inside 50's we used to concede but our defence used to flood back and repel the footy.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

It is the first ten seconds from a centre bounce that is challenging. Seems from the JLT games I've seen to date that there are fewer secondary ball ups. Neutralising lost possession at the bounce will be very hard.

 

[Kirkswan]

Just in case you're like me and can't remember exactly what all the new rules are, here's a link for the explanations:

https://www.afl.com.au/news/2019-02...-changes-heres-what-will-be-different-in-2019

 

[Olian]

Can you give a light analysis on how we might fare with the 6/6/6 rule compared to other top 8 teams or is it way to much work?

Competition average for using the 6/6/6 structure was only 42%. Swans were below average at 35%. Tigers and Crows went with a 6/6/6 structure less than 6%.

 

[SilentHunter_]

Just don't lose center clearances I suppose.

 

[caesar88]

skills in this game are worse than ours were last week

 

[scaryness]

So the Suns just gave Jarryd Lyons away huh?

 

[RW]

Bold prediction: The new kick-in rule will help us more than the 6/6/6 rule will hurt us. Clearing our defensive 50m arc has been a problem for us in the past as we often struggle to find a marking target coming out of defence, especially when Reid is out injured (which happens far too frequently).

The 6/6/6 rule will make the dying stages of close games more interesting, as the team in front won't be able to flood back at the centre bounce to protect their lead anymore.

 

[caesar88]

Bold prediction: The new kick-in rule will help us more than the 6/6/6 rule will hurt us. Clearing our defensive 50m arc has been a problem for us in the past as we often struggle to find a marking target coming out of defence, especially when Reid is out injured (which happens far too frequently).

The 6/6/6 rule will make the dying stages of close games more interesting, as the team in front won't be able to flood back at the centre bounce to protect their lead anymore.

How will it help us? We set up from kick-ins by going short and down the boundary. Basically the opposite of how clever teams will use the new rule.

 

[RUNVS]

Bigfooty is back.

 

[RW]

How will it help us? We set up from kick-ins by going short and down the boundary. Basically the opposite of how clever teams will use the new rule.

Yeah, but after that we are often forced to go long down the line and turn it over. The new rule might make it easier for us to clear defensive 50m, but then again we don't exactly move the ball quickly, so the counter-argument to that would be that we lack the players to take advantage of the new rule. These are just conjectures though, I don't have the evidence at the moment.

 

[RUNVS]

Yeah, but after that we are often forced to go long down the line and turn it over. The new rule might make it easier for us to clear defensive 50m, but then again we don't exactly move the ball quickly, so the counter-argument to that would be that we lack the players to take advantage of the new rule. These are just conjectures though, I don't have the evidence at the moment.

Which is nuts when you think about it as Beatson has been targetting fast players with good foot skills in the draft for the last 4 or 5 years. Why are they not filtering through?

 

[LukeParkerno1]

How will it help us? We set up from kick-ins by going short and down the boundary. Basically the opposite of how clever teams will use the new rule.

In the long term it will. Forces us to play more direct and quick. That is a good thing not a bad thing. If we lose doing that, so be it, but it gives us an opportunity to kick a winning score