Side that fails to deliver in 2019?

[Topkent]

Melbourne. Given the amount of hype and expectation surrounding them in the off-season, you could say missing the top 4 would considered a 'failure to deliver'

Maybe... I think WC Colligwood and Richmond were clearly better last year so I won't burn my house down if we don't make top 4. Only takes Adelaide to be brilliant again an it's ******* tough

 

[Coaster2012]

Melbourne have a ton of pressure on them this year imo. Expected to really challenge this year and if they slip out of the 4 then there will be some very unhappy campers.

 

[Scotland]

All of the top 4 will be under pressure to reach the same level again. Hawthorn get some leeway because they were at least a top 4 side from 2011-2016 + 2018 and Mitchell is out. We might have a huge premiership hangover but I'll take 1st and 9th over two 4ths if that is the case. Richmond run the risk of following Essendon in the early 2000s. Bombers were the (self proclaimed) greatest team ever in 2000, then lost in 2001. Have they won a final since? I think they beat us in 2004... After the Tiger bandwagon reached Mumbai-Howrah proportions it would be embarrassing if they slid back down the ladder already. Collingwood like us weren't expected to make the GF last year so get a little bit of grace, but it also took them 4 years out of finals after Bucks arrived to get there so another poor season will see the blowtorch applied.

Melbourne were 2018's fairytale and finally made finals again (and won through to the prelim) so if they regress to being an 11/12 win team on the cusp of the 8 (or worse) knives will be out. People will also be expecting Adelaide to bounce back plus there's pressure on Port and Essendon who are regularly tipped to be contenders that aren't. GWS in the same boat even though they lost a few players. Were a real contender in 2016, the last two years have been making up the numbers by September. Geelong are also giving the dice one last roll with the holy trinity, but after 2018 most people don't rate them as a threat. Not really sure about Sydney. Are they getting better or worse?

 

[MarkT2]

1. Grundy did not play well, I had money on him for the Norm Smith so I watched him all day closely an he working have come close

2. I know all about Sier Melbourne wanted to draft him. If your saying Sier plays find but he would still be shuffled down the ladder of effectiveness as his main skill at AFL level is contested footy. You can't just say extra inside mids equals more clearances. Dom Tyson had to play on a wing for us because of our inside strength an he sucked.
Sier can't play on a wing, if Beams does you still lose clearances

3. Stacking your midfield doesn't necessarily mean results, GWS midfield was filthy strong a couple years back but it didn't win them anything.

My issue isn't that you've made a bad call because everyone takes beams an makes it work but I can't stand when injured or unavailable players are used to flip a result.

It was merely to illustrate the effect of adding him to this years lineup, in particular (with others) to offset the impact of a tougher draw. Adding Beams (alone with Moore, Elliot and Dunn from injury) makes the 22 on any given day better. They replace the likes of Aish, Goldasack and Mayne rather than Sier who is develping nicely. Even if all we achieve with Beams is fresher full game a grade mids in the rotation then it's a pretty big plus. It's actually what was central to the 2010 premiership. At some stage you end up with A graders against second string mids. WCE are probably one of the few with enough depth (adoding Gaff) to counter. To a degree Melbourne are as well at least on the inside but probably not on he outside. The likes of Geelong have a first rate first choice midfield set up but they can't play a whole game like that. That's one reason why they can't win finals.

Beams allows Sidebottom to play lose half back apart from his own impact around the packs. His loss is one of the reasons for Collingwood's slide. He's a big in IMO.

 

[mick500]

Port, essendon and North.

All teams that run one way only, and all will be exposed with the new rule changes.

 

[jezzajay]

Well ppl complaining about the look of the game and the way our game plan won a flag so the rules reaction do feel like a Richmond thing

Yeah its all about Richmond righto!
At least you've got your excuse loaded and ready.

 

[BOMBERS 4 LIFE!!!!]

Essendon and Melbourne

 

[Magpie Monopoly]

Might be an unpopular opinion but I'm going with Richmond.

Shocked more isn't made of the flaws exposed in Richmond's list in the Prelim. At some point, they need to find a legitimate ruck setup. Nank is serviceable but with the new rules coming in that make rucks even stronger (the ability to dispose of the ball out of ruck contests and the clear dominance of midfielders getting first use opening ripping open play in the JLT series), how can they afford to play Grigg against a Gawn or Grundy or Lycett and not just concede the middle of the ground?

On top of that, I don't really understand how Tom Lynch is going to make them better. Their mantra is fanatic ball pressure in the forward line when opposition teams are trying to release pressure, not sure how having a slow, 1.8 tackle a game player in there F50 for 98% of game time helps. Even Mason Cox who is a liability defensively averages 1.9 tackles a game.

I think West Coast get better (a healthy year for some key players like McGovern et. al.), I think the Pies get better (given the plethora of injured key players coming back plus Beams), I think Melbourne improves along with the Crows and Bombers. Just get the feeling Richmond might slip after a deflating 2018.

 

[Footy Smarts]

Collingwood would be my tip. They came from the clouds because a whole stack of players had breakout exceptional years. History shows that's difficult for most players to back up. So how do Cox, Stephenson, De Goey, Phillips, Sier, Hoskin Elliott, Mihocek, Sidebottom, Howe, Grundy, Crisp, Langdon and Maynard back up career best years now that every team has had a summer to come up with ideas to counter them?

Bringing in Beams is assumed to help but Geelong brought in Ablett and had huge midfield issues last year so names on paper don't always work together. The impact of returning players is also assumed to be positive but will Wells and Elliott stay fit and if so will they reach their previous quality after so many injuries? And people talk about Dunn and Moore like they're returning guns whereas Dunn has only ever been an honest battler and Moore has talent but hasn't produced much yet. They've also got other injury issues with hugely important players Adams, De Goey and WHE in doubt or missing round 1.

If they answer most of those questions they've clearly got the ability to win the whole thing. But a few players struggling for form early matched with a lot more planning to combat their style and a very tough draw makes me think they're a major candidate to underperform expectations.

 

[carloss]

I say Collingwood. They had the Grand Final in the bag and to lose it must hurt. Be interesting to see how they start.

 

[LoungeLizard]

Collingwood would be my tip. They came from the clouds because a whole stack of players had breakout exceptional years. History shows that's difficult for most players to back up. So how do Cox, Stephenson, De Goey, Phillips, Sier, Hoskin Elliott, Mihocek, Sidebottom, Howe, Grundy, Crisp, Langdon and Maynard back up career best years now that every team has had a summer to come up with ideas to counter them?

Bringing in Beams is assumed to help but Geelong brought in Ablett and had huge midfield issues last year so names on paper don't always work together. The impact of returning players is also assumed to be positive but will Wells and Elliott stay fit and if so will they reach their previous quality after so many injuries? And people talk about Dunn and Moore like they're returning guns whereas Dunn has only ever been an honest battler and Moore has talent but hasn't produced much yet. They've also got other injury issues with hugely important players Adams, De Goey and WHE in doubt or missing round 1.

If they answer most of those questions they've clearly got the ability to win the whole thing. But a few players struggling for form early matched with a lot more planning to combat their style and a very tough draw makes me think they're a major candidate to underperform expectations.

If you don't expect them to perform, then how are they under performing?

 

[Stevi_Tigers]

Yeah its all about Richmond righto!
At least you've got your excuse loaded and ready.

It’s just an opinion

 

[OniAu]

I voted Collingwood for several reason:

1. Their team is pretty much the same as 2018. Melb got May to help their defence, Richmond got Lynch to support Riewoldt and WC gets back Gaff and NN to help their midfield. Collingwood got Beams but he boosts the one area they didn't need help in: the midfield. Their defence and attack are still suspect.

2. Their play is basically all about full team pressure and congestion which is exactly the kind of play the new rules are trying to target. Richmond play the same style but have gun KPPs forward and back to give them structure and a 'plan B.'

3. Draw is harder. I know some people don't like this argument but if a harder draw cost Collingwood just 1 or 2 wins it could have a big impact on final ladder position.

1. Our biggest issue in 2018 was injuries to the point we were playing two rookies down back and a first gamer - yet still managed to win games and all undersized- Add Dunn, Moore, Roughead and we should be fine with the bigger forwards. Providing injuries don't ravage us again. Unsure how our attack is suspect? Stephenson, Thomas, De Goey and Hoskin-Elliott all inside the top 20 goals kicked with all 38 goals and over. Add to that Cox and Mihocek with 25 and 29 for the season. Elliott will be set for a big one if he stays on the park, I class him as the best of all those forwards named when hes on song.

2. What team isn't about pressure, weird statement. Congestion yeah , as mentioned when we had no KPD late in the year , it was about third man up and giving a chop out. I still back Cox and Mihocek in to be more than serviceable in 1 on 1 situations. Still think our forward line is going to go up a notch again with not having a classic Rance or McGovern playing the seventh man.


3. Of course the draw will be harder in return games , we finished 13th in 2017, basically a given last year we would get an "easier" draw as that's how the competition is supposed to work ? In saying that , the only two teams that we could go 4-0 against is Tiges and West Coast at worst, I think we go into the other games pretty confident we could pinch 6 out of 8 of those. Saying 2 wins could be crucial come the end of the season isn't overly mind blowing, goes for any club.


2019 Double up games - Essendon, Melbourne, Richmond, West Coast, Western Bulldogs

2018 Double up games - Richmond, Essendon, Fremantle, Carlton, Brisbane Lions.

 

[00Stinger]

I think it will be Essendon, I can see them finishing around 9th-12th again.

Having said that, I wouldn't be shocked to see us * it up again somehow!

 

[Ian Dunross]

Hinkley has done a s**t job over the last 4 years. Also virtually nobody is picking Port for the top 8, so whilst we've failed to deliver on high expectations on the last 4 years, that expectation is all but gone now.

Surely he gets sacked end of this season unless you play finals...

Basset take over?

 

[Altum Volantes]

Melbourne and Essendon I think are the teams coming in with high expectations on their shoulders without having actually achieved anything.

Will both fire?...history suggests one will blow it for whatever reason (injuries, weight of expectation, getting ahead of themselves)

Seems to have been forgotten that Collingwood’s surge up the ladder was something of a surprise last year - so they’ll need to back that up again. I think they have enough improvement in them to be at the pointy end again.

There is some talk about Adelaide...but they will need a serious bounce back - the cattle is there but are they top 2-3 material in 2019?

4 teams with lower expectations than usual but still capable of delivering - Geelong, Hawthorn, Sydney and GWS. I reckon it’ll come down to injuries for all 4 teams - top end cattle is there but the depth is not.

West Coast, I think comes down to Josh Kennedy’s fitness - he’s still so vital
and very good when he’s on the park, but last year was concerning and he has had a limited Pre season. Would be surprise/disappointed not to play finals but maintaining it at the top won’t be as easy as many seem to think.

One I’ll put out there - North Melbourne - most would be suggesting mid table/bottom of the 8?
I still think they over achieved their way to 10th(?) last year. So they aren’t expected to be Top 4 this year, but can they stay out of the bottom 4?

 

[Papa G]

Surely he gets sacked end of this season unless you play finals...

Basset take over?

Our Idiot management have given him a 3 year contract. It is believed to have a performance clause for the 3rd year, so I reckon even if we have another year of mid table mediocrity (again), he'll be given until 2020, barring a complete capitulation. Lord help us if Basset is given the reigns though.

 

[Ian Dunross]

Our Idiot management have given him a 3 year contract. It is believed to have a performance clause for the 3rd year, so I reckon even if we have another year of mid table mediocrity (again), he'll be given until 2020, barring a complete capitulation. Lord help us if Basset is given the reigns though.

Hopefully Gray gets to play finals again soon. Deserves to be in the biggest spotlight.

Thought Basset was a sharp operator (based purely on his work at Norwood. I know no more than that).

 

[Brad Goodman]

Haven't really been following the off-season much but the team getting talked up the most of the basis of 'feel' would have to be Essendon, no?

Voted Melbourne FWIW, the time is absolutely ripe for them, but it's Melbourne.

 

[Obeanie1]

Went and looked at the current injury lists and was a tad surprised hiw long Melbourne's is.

Not a great start having so many listed a week out from round 1.

 

[Zoom]

Gonna say Collingwood. Their spine is probably around the 10th to 12th best in the competition and I can see that being their downfall. Furthermore, they have a tougher fixture and some ageing depth. Adding Beams also means they’ll have to shoe horn a mid in their secondary position. Not sure he improves them at all really.

 

[Gysberts2Bate]

Us or Essendon.

Yep

 

[OniAu]

Surprised Port havent got more votes. Lost more than they have gained in the off season

 

[JayJ20]

Essendon easily. Other than us, maybe Melbourne. Expect Melbourne to be good, but you never know with them.

 

[adammania9]

Gonna say Collingwood. Their spine is probably around the 10th to 12th best in the competition and I can see that being their downfall. Furthermore, they have a tougher fixture and some ageing depth. Adding Beams also means they’ll have to shoe horn a mid in their secondary position. Not sure he improves them at all really.

A 600 disposal, 20 goal midfielder who has finished in the top 10 of the Brownlow the last two seasons doesn’t improve Collingwood?