Politics Climate Change Paradox (cont in part 2)

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Climate change mitigation should be the full gamut, not just what is trendy to liberal-lefties. Australia could cut emissions to zero and climate change would continue apace. Therefore we should be preparing to deal with the effects of climate change, and part of that means harsher, more austere measures. Can the welfare state survive in a climate changed world? Should we be a high immigration country when water here is scarce and likely scarcer as the planet warms?

Do you have any data that suggests a drier climate as it warms?

 

[M Malice]

 

[Blue1980]

Climate change mitigation should be the full gamut, not just what is trendy to liberal-lefties. Australia could cut emissions to zero and climate change would continue apace. Therefore we should be preparing to deal with the effects of climate change, and part of that means harsher, more austere measures. Can the welfare state survive in a climate changed world? Should we be a high immigration country when water here is scarce and likely scarcer as the planet warms?

We will need to do both.

Cleaner energy will make more economic sense in the next couple of decades anyway, so the answer being to burn more coal just seems more idealistic (anti left) rather than any actual rational solution.

Now I think the greater advances in technology will help us deal with climate change better than we have in the past it’s still going to cause issues.

I don’t think we will have as great a temperature increase as some suggest (if I was to guess I’d say we would be 2 degrees higher than pre industrial levels by 2050, we are now about a degree higher), but that is still a significant issue.

We will have more extreme weather, be it floods/droughts and extreme heatwaves (just talking Australia here). So we need to take steps to mitigate against the worst effects of this.

 

[Blue1980]

Do you have any data that suggests a drier climate as it warms?

From 2005 but I don’t think the science on this has really been debated https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/warmer-climate-produces-l/

Now obviously it won’t be exactly the same in every location worldwide, or even every year. Just overall the trend is less rainfall in a warmer climate

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

From 2005 but I don’t think the science on this has really been debated https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/warmer-climate-produces-l/

Now obviously it won’t be exactly the same in every location worldwide, or even every year. Just overall the trend is less rainfall in a warmer climate

Then clearly it should be debated. Your link dies not answer the question I asked. You acknowlege that which is wierd.

 

[Blue1980]

Then clearly it should be debated. Your link dies not answer the question I asked. You acknowlege that which is wierd.

Here is a good article about it, goes through a variety of models. Some suggest the whole world will get wetter, but 90% suggest a more complex picture.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall

The general thought it current wet areas will get wetter and current dry areas will get drier.

Basically everywhere will see an increase in extreme rainfall to varying degrees.

Never said it wasn’t worth talking about, but seems the only constant in the models is it won’t be business as usual.

 

[Grin]

No matter what happens our power bills will go up and up in perpetuity.

I solar powered up 6 months ago. Used to pay about $1200 a quarter. Haven't paid a cent since.

 

[M Malice]

I solar powered up 6 months ago. Used to pay about $1200 a quarter. Haven't paid a cent since.

Great stuff, sounds like you have a quick pays for itself system.

How much did you pay for the solar setup?
Did you get a battery back up, I know they're expensive?
Do you get any money back for selling power back to the grid?

 

[Grin]

Great stuff, sounds like you have a quick pays for itself system.

How much did you pay for the solar setup?
Did you get a battery back up, I know they're expensive?
Do you get any money back for selling power back to the grid?

What I did was get a 10kw system and AGL pays a 16 cent feed in tariff. So the credit I build up during the day more tham compensates what I use in the evening, in the Sumer months. I expect some credit will cary over to the winter months, but I'll end up paying something then I expect.
Solar batteries are still a bit expensive, although in SA the government pays for 1/2 the cost now. In any case. With a 10 kw system, I don't really need it yet unless the feed in tariffs reduce.
After government subsidies the system cost me 8.5k. I expect it to pay for itself in less than 3 years.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Here is a good article about it, goes through a variety of models. Some suggest the whole world will get wetter, but 90% suggest a more complex picture.

https://www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-what-climate-models-tell-us-about-future-rainfall

The general thought it current wet areas will get wetter and current dry areas will get drier.

Basically everywhere will see an increase in extreme rainfall to varying degrees.

Never said it wasn’t worth talking about, but seems the only constant in the models is it won’t be business as usual.

I'm not sure what "business as usual" is. The climate has never been stable.

My original point was addressing ankther posters assertion that Australia will get drier though, and that's absurd.

 

[its free real estate]

I'm not sure what "business as usual" is. The climate has never been stable.

The climate has been very stable during the period of human civilisation. Small murmurs in the climate as a result of once-off volcanic eruptions have led to mass famines.

My original point was addressing ankther posters assertion that Australia will get drier though, and that's absurd.

How is it absurd? The general model is that the south eastern part of Australia will get drier, while the north western half will get wetter.

 

[Blue1980]

I'm not sure what "business as usual" is. The climate has never been stable.

My original point was addressing ankther posters assertion that Australia will get drier though, and that's absurd.

Most models say drier, Melb prob by 10% if you average out the models.

Now I know you have your mind made up as the climate denier, so not really sure you want any actual debate. Your arguments resemble Andrew Bolts.

 

[Isaac Cumming No 1]

Most models say drier, Melb prob by 10% if you average out the models.

Now I know you have your mind made up as the climate denier, so not really sure you want any actual debate. Your arguments resemble Andrew Bolts.

That's actually not true in the slightest, and I haven't said anything that would indicate I am that I'm aware of.

It is unquestionably true that the climate has never been stable. That neither proves nor disproves anything, it just means you cant use change per se as incontrovertible evidence.

I actually align pretty closely with Turnbull in that even if your skeptical you should view it as risk management to support remedial action.

I will never be be particularly tolerant of people that cant see other points of view. That was the poster I was responding to not you though.

 

[Blue1980]

That's actually not true in the slightest, and I haven't said anything that would indicate I am that I'm aware of.

It is unquestionably true that the climate has never been stable. That neither proves nor disproves anything, it just means you cant use change per se as incontrovertible evidence.

I actually align pretty closely with Turnbull in that even if your skeptical you should view it as risk management to support remedial action.

I will never be be particularly tolerant of people that cant see other points of view. That was the poster I was responding to not you though.

All good, I apologize for my incorrect assumptions, and yes I do agree just as a pure risk mitigation factor we should change to clean energy, but it will make more economic sense anyway.

But as we know with any existing industry (music, print media etc) they get addicted to their existing ways of making money and want to keep milking that cow until they can’t.

I don’t agree with some of the more apocalyptic scenarios but obviously something is happening with increased co2 emissions.

I know the fact we came out of a mini ice age which roughly coincided with the industrial revolution, so there’s some natural variability throw into the mix with the temperature increases we have experienced, though I don’t think enough to count for all (or even the majority of it).

 

[Mike Smyth]

If we think the climate is heading South now wait until both Labor and the Libs get their extra 10 million Australians. Madness.

 

[_007_]

If we think the climate is heading South now wait until both Labor and the Libs get their extra 10 million Australians. Madness.

Are you able to explain how an extra 10 million people in Australia would have anything other than a negligible effect on the climate of Australia/Earth?

 

[its free real estate]

Are you able to explain how an extra 10 million people in Australia would have anything other than a negligible effect on the climate of Australia/Earth?

They need water and food don’t they? If the climate deteriorates to the point we no longer have arable land to support twice the population we have now, what happens?

 

[Brick Loosener]

They need water and food don’t they? If the climate deteriorates to the point we no longer have arable land to support twice the population we have now, what happens?

Nothing.

 

[Mike Smyth]

Are you able to explain how an extra 10 million people in Australia would have anything other than a negligible effect on the climate of Australia/Earth?

Are you serious. You really need an explanation as to how an extra 10 million will adversely affect the environment.

 

[Brick Loosener]

Are you serious. You really need an explanation as to how an extra 10 million will adversely affect the environment.

He asked you to explain it.

 

[its free real estate]

Nothing.

People starve is what happens. If a climate catastrophe is coming, probably best to batten down the hatches.

 

[Brick Loosener]

People starve is what happens. If a climate catastrophe is coming, probably best to batten down the hatches.

No ones starving.

 

[its free real estate]

No ones starving.

Not now, no.

 

[Brick Loosener]

Not now, no.

Not ever.

 

[its free real estate]

Not ever.

So if the world warms by 4 degrees, there will be no mass hunger?

Or you don’t think the world will warm by 4 degrees?