Society/Culture Australian Property Prices to Crash?

[mouncey2franklin]

How serious is this supposed 'correction'? Are regular people worried or is this just a problem for real estate investors?

 

[DidakDelight]

How serious is this supposed 'correction'? Are regular people worried or is this just a problem for real estate investors?

It’s so bad Melbourne and Sydney house prices are the same as they were in....















December 2016

 

[Espe]

Three long paragraphs to describe some sort of "government indorsed ponzi " scheme and DIY TV.

Look out gardening Australia, you're to blame for our "housing crisis"

And you actually believe your bullshit

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Just because you can't seem to comprehend or understand basics of external factors that have caused house prices to sky rocket isn't his problem.

 

[Royal Flush]

Just because you can't seem to comprehend or understand basics of external factors that have caused house prices to sky rocket isn't his problem.

Blame it on Bunnings

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[Espe]

Blame it on Bunnings

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No, I'd blame your ignorance on stupidity. Bunnings is decent.

 

[Royal Flush]

No, I'd blame your ignorance on stupidity. Bunnings is decent.

Put some interesting facts with figures .
Airy fairy s**t doesn't cut it for me

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[Espe]

Put some interesting facts with figures .
Airy fairy s**t doesn't cut it for me

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You're literally saying that cultural attitudes towards property (such as tv shows) isn't related to property prices or 'bubbles'.

That is literally insane and shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about other than sprouting the same old crap of "in my day is was harder" bullshit. It's tiring.

Still haven't provided a link to a 200k non shitbox within 'reasonable' distance to the CBD as well.

 

[Royal Flush]

You're literally saying that cultural attitudes towards property (such as tv shows) isn't related to property prices or 'bubbles'.

That is literally insane and shows you have absolutely no idea what you're talking about other than sprouting the same old crap of "in my day is was harder" bullshit. It's tiring.

Still haven't provided a link to a 200k non shitbox within 'reasonable' distance to the CBD as well.

Firstly I'm not your real estate agent .

If you want a 200k house go for it.

But I guess you deserve one 10km from CBD.
Sorry I forgot ... Your waiting for the bubble to burst

If you believe in the airy fairy as a point of reference to determine where the real estate market is heading . Then Good for you.

Here's a little project for you.
Try an find a correlation between house rules, or what ever show you want and an increased in housing market as a result of that .


Here's a tip.. less whinging and more working



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[Espe]

Firstly I'm not your real estate agent .

If you want a 200k house go for it.

But I guess you deserve one 10km from CBD.
Sorry I forgot ... Your waiting for the bubble to burst

If you believe in the airy fairy as a point of reference to determine where the real estate market is heading . Then Good for you.

Here's a little project for you.
Try an find a correlation between house rules, or what ever show you want and an increased in housing market as a result of that .


Here's a tip.. less whinging and more working



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So you can't find a 200k house within even an hour and a half of Melbourne? You said a few pages back you would, I guess you can't?

Never said it was a point of reference, I said there societies attitude towards real estate is an aspect that contributes to price rises and falls. Just like in any market of anything. If you can't understand basic first year economics then that's not my problem..

Your last line of "less whinging and more work" just sums it up perfectly. Absolute ignorance.

 

[Royal Flush]

So you can't find a 200k house within even an hour and a half of Melbourne? You said a few pages back you would, I guess you can't?

Never said it was a point of reference, I said there societies attitude towards real estate is an aspect that contributes to price rises and falls. Just like in any market of anything. If you can't understand basic first year economics then that's not my problem..

Your last line of "less whinging and more work" just sums it up perfectly. Absolute ignorance.

I especially love this part,

"I said there societies attitude towards real estate is an aspect that contributes to price rises and falls"

Is that a fact or just what you reckon.



Go to Morwell you'll find a good house in a good town for thereabouts..


Fine don't work harder.
Learn to code dude

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[Scotland]

So you can't find a 200k house within even an hour and a half of Melbourne? You said a few pages back you would, I guess you can't?

Never said it was a point of reference, I said there societies attitude towards real estate is an aspect that contributes to price rises and falls. Just like in any market of anything. If you can't understand basic first year economics then that's not my problem..

Your last line of "less whinging and more work" just sums it up perfectly. Absolute ignorance.

Ignore button is your friend.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

So finance is still easy, why has the bubble burst?

OR

To put it simply, the rules are changing. I'm not sure how many people realise this but the perfect storm of CGT, permission of negative gearing on residential properties and record low interest rates created a scenario in which property investors couldn't lose on investing in the major cities for about 15 years. While previously the difference between what a home owner was willing to pay to secure a home in the area vs. what an investor was willing to pay to make a tidy profit was fairly minimal, the last few decades has favored investors far more than home buyers and the prices have been driven through the roof. This creates a self-feeding fire, as the higher the prices are driven up by investors who find themselves with no upper limit on what they can buy a property for, other investors see this as growth which encourages more investment money to be tipped in.

Prices will continue to fall until the pendulum between favoring investors and owner occupiers returns to neutral, and then they will probably start to rise again so long as Australia isn't in recession. A 20% fall looks bad on paper but the perspective is that prices went up in Sydney & Melbourne by an average two thirds in five years, a historic rise was always going to be followed by a historic fall.

 

[Collingwoodity]

At least that is more of a sound investment than property at the moment.

I hope you’re joking.


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[Collingwoodity]

What do u think has caused this un-affordability then? Seems to me it is primarily inflation, followed by 1 income families becoming 2 and immigration concentrated in larger cities

Immigration is surely the greatest cause.


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[Collingwoodity]

Irony alert.

Ever turned on a TV? Every single real estate, home renovation etc. show (and there are many) is about "adding value". People are obsessed with how much their houses are worth, even if it adds nothing to their quality of life. People think that if they live in a $1m house they are somehow better off.

We also have tens of thousands of property "investors" because we culturally and practically tax people who actually contribute to the economy. Earn more money, pay more tax. Start a business and employ people, pay more tax. Earn a fat corporate wage and people are put off. So instead you invest in real estate and create "wealth" through hoarding and speculation. It's a govt endorsed ponzi scheme that adds zero societal benefit.

Property owners are taxed at every turn and contribute more in taxes to the economy than any group of asset holders.

It is a government policy at every level.


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[its free real estate]

https://www.afr.com/business/bankin...utsche-analysts-find-big-flaw-20190321-p516aj

If true, this is ridiculous. It means there are people paid decent six figure sums to divide the numerator by the denominator and do little further analysis.

 

[Whiskey Stat]

https://www.afr.com/business/bankin...utsche-analysts-find-big-flaw-20190321-p516aj

If true, this is ridiculous. It means there are people paid decent six figure sums to divide the numerator by the denominator and do little further analysis.

Could you cut and paste the pertinent points? Most probably don't have a afr subscription, myself included.

 

[Cuzz09]

Hope my unit doubles by this time next year

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[its free real estate]

Could you cut and paste the pertinent points? Most probably don't have a afr subscription, myself included.

I’ll give a summary:

APRA estimates the average household mortgage to be $270,000. But Deutsche Bank have run analysis to show that doesn’t make sense, that the number of mortgages have blown out over the past 10 years relative to population. Turns out APRA have simply divided the size of mortgage debt by the number of mortgages. This is wrong because many households have split mortgages, eg partially fixed, partially variable, each of which count as separate mortgages. So the average household mortgage is likely to be much, much larger than APRA have thought.

 

[The Edukator]

To put it simply, the rules are changing. I'm not sure how many people realise this but the perfect storm of CGT, permission of negative gearing on residential properties and record low interest rates created a scenario in which property investors couldn't lose on investing in the major cities for about 15 years. While previously the difference between what a home owner was willing to pay to secure a home in the area vs. what an investor was willing to pay to make a tidy profit was fairly minimal, the last few decades has favored investors far more than home buyers and the prices have been driven through the roof. This creates a self-feeding fire, as the higher the prices are driven up by investors who find themselves with no upper limit on what they can buy a property for, other investors see this as growth which encourages more investment money to be tipped in.

Prices will continue to fall until the pendulum between favoring investors and owner occupiers returns to neutral, and then they will probably start to rise again so long as Australia isn't in recession. A 20% fall looks bad on paper but the perspective is that prices went up in Sydney & Melbourne by an average two thirds in five years, a historic rise was always going to be followed by a historic fall.

Home owners are the ones most responsible for pushing up prices, not investors...

 

[The Edukator]

I’ll give a summary:

APRA estimates the average household mortgage to be $270,000. But Deutsche Bank have run analysis to show that doesn’t make sense, that the number of mortgages have blown out over the past 10 years relative to population. Turns out APRA have simply divided the size of mortgage debt by the number of mortgages. This is wrong because many households have split mortgages, eg partially fixed, partially variable, each of which count as separate mortgages. So the average household mortgage is likely to be much, much larger than APRA have thought.

Fair point but there is still far more equity than debt in the housing market so we're not going to see many forced sell off's as a result of not being able to pay the mortgage. I think I heard a podcast the other day saying something about delinquency rates being much the same and interest rates less likely to rise than 12 months ago too.

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

Home owners are the ones most responsible for pushing up prices, not investors...

No they're not.

 

[The Edukator]

Hope my unit doubles by this time next year

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I know you're being facetious but when thinking about whether your asset will grow ask yourself these questions: Wheres your unit? Is there amenity in the area? What is the walk score? Are there more than 10 units in your block? Are there more units being built next door or is there scarcity? Is it new? Are the bedrooms a minimum 10sqm? Is the body corporate fee expensive? What is the ratio of OO vs Renters in the area?

Wrong answers won't help drive growth in your asset and many people buy investment stock property instead of investment grade property and then wonder why their asset value is going down.

 

[its free real estate]

Fair point but there is still far more equity than debt in the housing market so we're not going to see many forced sell off's as a result of not being able to pay the mortgage. I think I heard a podcast the other day saying something about delinquency rates being much the same and interest rates less likely to rise than 12 months ago too.

If the analysis is that poor from the regulator (it is woeful, below year 8 maths and research ability) then I doubt any of the other stats about the mortgage market are any better.

 

[The Edukator]

No they're not.

I mean the market is circa 70% OO buying with emotion but okay.