2019 Draft thread

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https://afl.draftcentral.com.au/2019/03/19/nab-league-season-preview-geelong-falcons/
NAB League season preview: Geelong Falcons

“We’ve got a heap of really good 17 year olds, so if we’re not dangerous this year we will be very dangerous next year,” Turner said. “Tanner Bruhn, he’s got a bit of an injury at the moment so he probably won’t play until midway through the year. “Charlie Lazzaro and Henry Walsh – Sam’s brother – there’s also Oliver Henry, who’s Jack Henry’s brother who plays for Geelong, there’s Will Kilpatrick – he’s Glenn Kilpatrick’s son, he played for Geelong and Essendon, Noah Gribble, we’ve got a heap of really good – and there’s a couple injured at the moment, as I said Bruhn’s injured and Sam Witherden, so we’ve got a really good crop of 17-year-olds coming through as well.”
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Do we start operation "Draft Witho Jr " now?
 

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Hoping Collingwood have an ordinary season and we get a top 10 pick. If we don't trade it do we draft another mid with our first rounder?
 
There's a couple of posts from one the draft watchers thread on the draft board from last year I want to copy and paste here. They are from D_P_S's 2018 Draft Watch. D_P_S is one of the writers for AFL Draft Central. The poster whose posts I'm going to copy and paste used to be a scout for AFL teams.


March 28, 2018.

First the intro - I have been employed in AFL club land for a number of years and that ceased at the end of last season. Was in recruiting and talent id and emphasis was on observing players from U16 year through to Draft year - but mainly through APS/AGSV and TAC systems.<br>So now I am just an observer and these are just my opinions...<br><br>I believe the 2018 Draft crop - other than the first say 10 picks - will end up being a very disappointing group.<br><br>I base this on the fact that all great draft's have historically had a strong emphasis on the strength on the Vic Metro/Vic Country groups and i am putting it out there that the 2018 groups are very, very thin...<br>I base this on my initial observations from 2016 U16 Nationals - VM did not win a game and VC only beat VM in a very lack lustre game and lost other 2 games. This was early indicator of the weakness of this group from a Victorian standpoint. I also dont want to take away from strength of other states - as SA this year is as strong a group as i can remember - its just that i am making the point that all good draft crops rely on the largest pool of its players coming from Victoria and i believe this years Vics are very average. The AFL Academy intake at this year level also further backs up my point - the King brothers are covering the weakness in this group.<br><br>As mentioned earlier i have been a close observer of APS/AGSV over last decade and my concern with 2018 crop was further heightened during last years private school season. Sticking just with APS to make my point - 2017 was a really interesting year - with Haileybury with about best team in private school history (Brayshaw, Constable, Davies-Uniacke, Bonar, etc...and the Kings), Geelong Grammar had the fab four (Dow, Brander, O'Brien and Daniels), Caulfield were incredibly strong and Carey were brilliantly coached etc...but the thing i noted with great interest was the distinct lack of quality year 11's in a lot of the teams. To emphasize my concerns further i want to highlight 2 boys in particular that have recruiters very concerned about 2018 and very excited about 2019. In all my years of watching APS footy i have never seen year 10's come in and influence games as much as Matt Rowell (Carey) and Jack Mahony (St Kevins) did in 2017. History tells me that many year 10 boys play - but i have not seen young players do what these boys (and Noah Anderson from Carey) did consistently and that makes me think that they are simply a lot better than this years year 12 boys.<br><br>So that is my quick observations on last 2 years but what about this year - and round one of TAC i think further confirms my concerns. If you go through teams i simply cannot remember a Round 1 that had so many bottom age players. If you ignore the 19 year olds - which btw are becoming a joke as they were originally were meant to be either under developed bigs or injured players and now they have become just guys unlucky not to be drafted and coming back to assist teams to win games - the volume of bottom ages was very concerning from a 2018 draft perspective. Just look at Vic Metro TAC teams - bottom agers everywhere like never before in round one. I got told on weekend that initial VM squad for 2018 has 29 players - this includes 7 AFL Academy bottom agers and 3 19 year olds - so i ask the question is this really the year on the super draft ???<br><br>Now my disclaimer - the top end of 2018 draft is seriously elite - i am just questioning the depth...</div>
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February 1, 2019.

Ok it’s been a while since I last posted but I had a last minute reprieve and went back into AFL system again so kept quiet whilst employed – but now definitely retired so want to share my thoughts again.
I would like to share some thoughts of how things work inside AFL land with regards recruiting and how that differs a little from what I sometimes read here.
When looking at a draft crop I think the one thing that sometimes is over looked by many here but absolutely is the most important issue for recruiters is a boy’s exposure and performance to top level footy at a young age. For many the AFL is the first exposure to ‘open age’ football so we are really interested in performances of boys against older peers. So that means National Championships (and to a lesser degree TAC finals) and school footy is really important in your bottom age years. If you look at last few drafts there have been high end picks who didn’t have great draft years but have shown earlier they can mix it against older bodies and that is what AFL is – look at Caldwell, McHenry & Butters from 2018 – all high picks). So if we look at 2019 draft crop what have AFL recruiters noted to this point?
Overall 2019 is a very strong draft – it’s way deeper than 2019 – but will be judged harsher purely on the lack of high end talls – there are basically none at this stage who are demanding a top 10 pick (although Luke Jackson you could make a case for). Vic Metro will be seriously strong in 2019 and will provide a large number of high picks.
Ok I just wanted to get this started before giving my opinions below. Please note my opinions are based on my first hand experience only at this stage – so I am only commenting about performances that I have witnessed live. So this is largely based on U16 Nationals, APS/AGSV footy (17-18), AFL Academy (NZ game), U18 Nationals and TAC.
I have deliberately left out the Futures GF game as whilst we watch it – most recruiters discount performances as it brings together a large number of boys who have not played for weeks and isn’t a level playing field. And if you watched closely this year the game was coached from a very different angle by both coaches. Tony Bamford coached Black team and played his best players in best positions all day – whilst Luke Power (White) gave priority to players not part of AFL Academy particularly in mid field and this impacted greatly on the game. So don’t read much into this game – that said Rowell and Serong were outstanding…

So for 2019 this is where most AFL recruiters have things at this stage - there are 9 standouts above all others at this time:
Vic Metro: Rowell, Anderson, Mahony & Williams
Allies: O’Neill & Green
WA: Sharp & Jackson
Vic Country: Serong

The tier below include Gould, Kemp, Gardner, Flanders & C Stephens (Vic Country).

And there are 5 at the moment who are clearly at the top end (in no particular order):

Matt Rowell (Nationals : 19.5 disposals per game (0 goals) & TAC Finals (22.6 disposals/0.6 goals):
Already been a lot written about him so I will not go on too much here – I first saw him at U15 Nationals and have seen him at U16 Nationals, APS and TAC many times. The boy is a star – ultra professional and one of best mid fielders of last few years. Has comprehensively beaten older boys almost every time he has played against them. Ignore his height – he is now 180cm but strong, fast and determined. Only possible criticism from AFL standpoint is his versatility in that he has had very little exposure forward or back over last few years – that said it doesn’t worry me at all he is going to be a star.

Noah Anderson: (NC: 18.0 disposals/2.0 goals & TAC Finals: 18.3 disposals/1.5 goals):
Again no surprise here – player of U16 Nationals, perfect size, elite endurance and a natural leader (was captain of AFL Academy team – voted by players). Big game player – his game against WA in Nationals was almost as good as Izak Rankine against Metro. It is important with Noah to realise how he was used in Nationals and with Chargers late in TAC year – everyone knows he can play in midfield but was predominately used forward only to develop his AFL versatility but his numbers and impact was outstanding – will most likely move to full time mid- field role in 2019 and expect him to dominate. I think most clubs see him as a logical pick 1 at this stage as his size and endurance would see him likely to play in round one 2020.

Jack Mahony: (NC: 17.0 disposals/1.5 goals & TAC Finals: 21.0 disposals/1.5 goals):
I think Jack is the one flying under radar in threads but certainly not with recruiters. I think this is largely due to him breaking his collarbone in first TAC game after Nationals and missing rest of school and TAC season. He returned in Dragons first final after 8 weeks out and had 25 touches in limited mid field time and then kicked 2 goals as predominant small forward against Stingrays in a depleted Dragons team in Prelim. Important here to recognise how Dragons use bottom agers – they rarely play them in influential roles and thus it seems always the Dragons is where draft bolters come from (think Mcgrath and Taranto in 2016, Brayshaw in 2017 and again Bailey Smith last year) – Mahony is that player in 2019. Was arguably best on ground in first half of WA Nationals game – changed the game with Rowell when moved to outside mid in SA game and was outstanding in NZ game (as were Rowell and Anderson). Can play mid and forward and has dominated school team since first playing as a 15 year old. Tied with Sam Walsh in Yo Yo test at 2018 TAC testing so speed/endurance is elite. Like Rowell people are concerned about his size – although I hear he is now 179cm and November born so size isn’t an issue.

Mitch O’Neill: (NC: 20.0 disposals/0.8 goals):
Like Mahony is a bit under the radar – which is hard to say about a boy who was All Australian as a bottom ager. He had an outstanding Nationals and that just backed up what we saw in NZ in AFL Academy game. This game is a bit of a joke from a results aspect but the NZ team are adults with big bodies and it has always been fascinating to watch young boys work the way through this problem. Mitch got added to Academy squad for this Trip and really impressed us both during the game and at training and interviews. On field he is an elite 2 way runner who never stops working and will definitely benefit from his exposure through 4 games of Nationals in 2018. The change to TAC for a Tassie based player will only help Mitch’s development further in 2019. I have only seen him live in Nationals, NZ and GF game so I personally have limited exposure but he is on this list because he is rated very highly by a large number of clubs.

Dylan Williams (NC: 12.0 disposals/4.0 goals & TAC Finals: 11.0 disposals/4.7 goals):
Dylan is the tricky one on this list. There are some who will say that he has to be in mix for pick 1 purely on what he did in 2018 – and then there are others who will say that Vic Metro rated him below Rowell, Anderson & Mahony as he only played one game in Nationals and not against SA in final game – and they will also highlight the nature of his goals – he gets an incredible amount of his goals from snaps and leading his defender under the ball and getting it out the back – the criticism here being he will not get away with this at AFL level. My view – whilst he is not a high possession winner, he is a very clever footballer who has performed extremely well both forward and back and that versatility will hold him in good stead. 2019 will define his draft position but in 2020 he will be playing AFL football.

Please note that I have only mentioned players who have has bottom age experience in 2018 Nationals because at this point clubs have them at the top of their lists. There are plenty of boys with promise who we will find out more shortly…
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bungalow_bill said:
Hoping Collingwood have an ordinary season and we get a top 10 pick. If we don't trade it do we draft another mid with our first rounder?
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I think a half back with a bit of pace, strong kicking skills and a penchant for intercept marking would be a good fit for the kind of kid we'll look for if we go to the draft. Kinda hoping we have a strong year and are able to entice some more developed players and then use the draft assets we've accumulate for the trade. Don't expect us to be lucky enough to get a Neale calibre player two years in a row but I guess you never know.
 
pulpdriver said:
I think a half back with a bit of pace, strong kicking skills and a penchant for intercept marking would be a good fit for the kind of kid we'll look for if we go to the draft. Kinda hoping we have a strong year and are able to entice some more developed players and then use the draft assets we've accumulate for the trade. Don't expect us to be lucky enough to get a Neale calibre player two years in a row but I guess you never know.
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I have asked about this exact type of player.

eDPS said:
Plenty of different types of defenders, Hayden Young is the Daniel Rich type with his accurate left boot although he is a better interceptor than Rich when he played back. Lachlan Potter offers pure speed and dare (recruiters note: lacks a contested side to his game) , Sam Ramsay from Calder is quick and a nice left foot kick.

I don’t mind Brock Smith but he does lack that class, Trent Bianco is very classy down back but very much an outside player. Will Gould may be 190cm but he has a leathel kick on him and can certainly be a leader of the backline in the Shannon Hurn type role.
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Young (7) and Gould(10) are currently both in eDPS's top 10.
 
I have barely looked at the Drafts, Trading and FA board this off season, if Collingwood start to slide:D I'll dip over for a look.
 
pulpdriver said:
I think a half back with a bit of pace, strong kicking skills and a penchant for intercept marking would be a good fit for the kind of kid we'll look for if we go to the draft. Kinda hoping we have a strong year and are able to entice some more developed players and then use the draft assets we've accumulate for the trade. Don't expect us to be lucky enough to get a Neale calibre player two years in a row but I guess you never know.
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So a taller version of Zac Bailey?
 

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Wouldn't mind a gun ruckman. From the sounds of it there's a few this year.
 
pulpdriver said:
Got any names that fit the bill to keep an eye on over the season?
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Highlighted in the post above.

Hayden Young from Dandenong Stingrays and Will Gould from Glenelg in SA are the two eDPS pointed out for me.


I didn't pay a lot (read any) attention to any of the underage defenders last year. The Oakleigh boys stood out for obvious reasons. But I really liked Gippsland Power small forward Sam Flanders last year.

I did ask the recruiter on eDPS's thread about a couple of the guys who eDPS had rated in his 16 to 26 range, as that's where our first three picks in this years draft will possibly fall, if we keep all three picks that is. This was his response.


Draft Potential said:
Ok - again only my thoughts:

Lachie Potter: absolute top end breakaway speed. Tests spectacularly well - that said don't read too much in to sprint testing times as any boy who has significant athletics sprinting background will test slow as the mechanics required to manually start timing in 20 metre testing is so different to normal sprinting that we have found over years many boys test "slow" even though they are really quick...that said Lachie is seriously quick. Gives great run and carry - so big tick. Can tend to make poor decisions regards disposal - and kicking is clear weakness that i believe will see him slide down board. I also have concerns about him one on one in defence - was at Vic Metro camp in Ballarat in December and a couple of the smaller boys i mentioned earlier comprehensively beat him in both marking and ground ball duels. I honestly see him as a winger and not defender - if kicking can improve he will be a very nice player.

Lachie Ash: excellent ball user by hand and foot. See him as more outside than inside at this time - and if seen as outside role at AFL level his lack of top line pace maybe of concern. I hope Murray play him inside mid this year to develop him further. To consider as a top prospect (1st round) at this stage we would have liked to have seen him do a little more at Nationals last year. Important with Vic Country players who don't attend APS schools to recognise that a large amount of their TAC games are played against seriously inferior competition - only TAC games of real relevance are rounds 1-3 and last couple and Finals - so we are really emphasizing more on their Nationals games. That said i think Lachie is a promising prospect.

Brock Smith: first thing i think of with Brock - is tough and determined. Really impressed with his application and way he seemingly buys in to what his role is. As a defender i think his game is really solid - seems to get to right spots - is very aware of positioning - and defends really well. You mention outside run - i dont see this with Brock - i see him as solid almost 'old school' defender first - and like Ash probably would have liked to seen more promise at Nationals. A likely late rounds pick i think...
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If you look at where our first three picks are likely to fall, in that 16 to 30 range, it's unlikely we get a look at one of the top small or medium defenders. The one point that gives me hope is that the above ex-recruiter said that this year looks like being a very deep draft.
 
jackess said:
Wouldn't mind a gun ruckman. From the sounds of it there's a few this year.
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That's not what has been discussed on the draft board. That it's a very shallow year for KPP prospects.

You might be talking to people in the industry that have a different view on the KPP prospects this year. If so, happy to hear second hand reports.
 
bungalow_bill said:
Will be keeping an eye on Kobe Tozer from our academy. No doubt KM will have him in his top 5 at some stage pre draft:moustache:
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I'm cautiously guarded about my hopes for Tozer, seeing as he has had three knee reconstructions now. I wish Kobe every success and purely from a Lions fans perspective, I hope he has an awesome year and worthy of a top 5 pick.

I'm very interested in Tom Wischnat. Found it interesting he wasn't named to the U18 Allies development squad.

The one bugbear for me is the lack of reports on our academy kids from the club or other sources. There are a fair amount of articles pumped out about kids from both the Sydney and Gold Coast academies, both from the club and their local media.

We also hear almost nothing from the club in terms of academy game results. We played the Suns two weeks ago in a preseason U18 scratch match, and there's been nothing reported. From the Suns board, we were well beaten.
 
briztoon said:
I'm cautiously guarded about my hopes for Tozer, seeing as he has had three knee reconstructions now. I wish Kobe every success and purely from a Lions fans perspective, I hope he has an awesome year and worthy of a top 5 pick.

I'm very interested in Tom Wischnat. Found it interesting he wasn't named to the U18 Allies development squad.

The one bugbear for me is the lack of reports on our academy kids from the club or other sources. There are a fair amount of articles pumped out about kids from both the Sydney and Gold Coast academies, both from the club and their local media.

We also hear almost nothing from the club in terms of academy game results. We played the Suns two weeks ago in a preseason U18 scratch match, and there's been nothing reported. From the Suns board, we were well beaten.
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Maybe it is because we have no gun young players coming through our Academy?
 
a mayes ing said:
Hasn't he done something like 3 knee reconstructions already or something? I doubt he will be anywhere near the pointy end of the draft
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Didn't know that - same knee?

briztoon said:
I'm cautiously guarded about my hopes for Tozer, seeing as he has had three knee reconstructions now. I wish Kobe every success and purely from a Lions fans perspective, I hope he has an awesome year and worthy of a top 5 pick.

I'm very interested in Tom Wischnat. Found it interesting he wasn't named to the U18 Allies development squad.

The one bugbear for me is the lack of reports on our academy kids from the club or other sources. There are a fair amount of articles pumped out about kids from both the Sydney and Gold Coast academies, both from the club and their local media.

We also hear almost nothing from the club in terms of academy game results. We played the Suns two weeks ago in a preseason U18 scratch match, and there's been nothing reported. From the Suns board, we were well beaten.
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Perhaps trying to keep our academy kids under the radar
 
I think the clubs focus has made a big shift away from just purely the draft. Having three picks in the 15 - 25 or so range I feel one or two will be used in trades to continue our list build. One would assume that the midfield depth wouldn’t be such a focus anymore apart from maybe some more outside runners. Like others here (and listening to Fagan) more run from the back half will be a focus. This could be dealt with within our own club either by Cox or Madden but don’t be surprised if we continue down that path.

I’m still in the mindset that we are a couple of years away from a real finals push so the players that I’m identifying are still young and/or should definitely still be on our list and are currently best 22.

In the back half you would say that it is looking good in regards to certain spots especially with;

Gardiner - ? - Bailey
Witherden - Andrews - ?

It would be great to see Adams come on but I’m going on previous history of his but I still see 2 big holes in the back half with one of those being that running half-back flanker.


In the midfield we definitely look a lot better these days

Lyons, Matho, McCluggage, Berry, Neale

I’ve left out Zorko here as I think he will become more of a forward-mid and also Rayner and Cameron due to the same fact. These are all inside mid-types and we’ve come along way but you can see that that outside run is needed.

In the Forward half I could get shouted down here but there are only 4 that I can see are going to be there and one of them I have massive concerns with.

Rayner - Hipwood* - Zorko
Cameron - ? - ?

In regards to Hipwood i personally fee that he will be at the crossroads in a couple years time and that can be left to another thread but I’ll still put him in as I hope he really makes it as a KPF. McCarthy could go in here but for me he is a wait and see. In regards to McStay I have massive concerns for when we should be making that real and we don’t currently have an elite type of KPF.

Rucks I’m happy with and can see the big O being our man in there for a long time.

So looking at above list position needs wise I would say that we still need;

A KPD, HBF (running), 2 Outside mids, a KPF and another small forward.

Of course I hope that we can build and cover some of those with players on our current list and we have started to build some depth but I’m more raising positions where we need A to B grade players still.
 
jjami15 said:
I think the clubs focus has made a big shift away from just purely the draft. Having three picks in the 15 - 25 or so range I feel one or two will be used in trades to continue our list build. One would assume that the midfield depth wouldn’t be such a focus anymore apart from maybe some more outside runners. Like others here (and listening to Fagan) more run from the back half will be a focus. This could be dealt with within our own club either by Cox or Madden but don’t be surprised if we continue down that path.

I’m still in the mindset that we are a couple of years away from a real finals push so the players that I’m identifying are still young and/or should definitely still be on our list and are currently best 22.

In the back half you would say that it is looking good in regards to certain spots especially with;

Gardiner - ? - Bailey
Witherden - Andrews - ?

It would be great to see Adams come on but I’m going on previous history of his but I still see 2 big holes in the back half with one of those being that running half-back flanker.


In the midfield we definitely look a lot better these days

Lyons, Matho, McCluggage, Berry, Neale

I’ve left out Zorko here as I think he will become more of a forward-mid and also Rayner and Cameron due to the same fact. These are all inside mid-types and we’ve come along way but you can see that that outside run is needed.

In the Forward half I could get shouted down here but there are only 4 that I can see are going to be there and one of them I have massive concerns with.

Rayner - Hipwood* - Zorko
Cameron - ? - ?

In regards to Hipwood i personally fee that he will be at the crossroads in a couple years time and that can be left to another thread but I’ll still put him in as I hope he really makes it as a KPF. McCarthy could go in here but for me he is a wait and see. In regards to McStay I have massive concerns for when we should be making that real and we don’t currently have an elite type of KPF.

Rucks I’m happy with and can see the big O being our man in there for a long time.

So looking at above list position needs wise I would say that we still need;

A KPD, HBF (running), 2 Outside mids, a KPF and another small forward.

Of course I hope that we can build and cover some of those with players on our current list and we have started to build some depth but I’m more raising positions where we need A to B grade players still.
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Mitch Hahn was on SEN the other day and he was very bullish on James Madden, said he has picked up the skills of our game quickly.
 
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