AFL 2019 - AFL Round 4

Who Covers the Line This Week?


  • Total voters
    31
  • Poll closed .

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For my 5th of 23 bets I’ve taken Geelong -7.5 @1.50. Since my long term goal is $1.20 I didn’t use my whole bank, and if they lose I’ll go adelaide -.5@1.62 to cover it.
 
3u Jake Lloyd fantasy trio 2 (vs Parker and Kennedy) $1.85 (BE)

Lloyd now in a different level to these two in fantasy, and if Melbourne continue spraying the ball forward like they have been the last few weeks he should see plenty of it. Teams playing Melbourne have had a lot of back half possessions so hopefully translates to plenty for Lloyd.
 
Also, anyone leaning Melbourne? Starting to think they win.. just.. can’t see Sydney belting them if they don’t win
 
Also, anyone leaning Melbourne? Starting to think they win.. just.. can’t see Sydney belting them if they don’t win

The unders in this game surely is the play. Not a game I'll be taking though. Do like Melbourne 1-39 though as a small play.
 
Also, anyone leaning Melbourne? Starting to think they win.. just.. can’t see Sydney belting them if they don’t win

Yup - as much as I laughed at all the floggos fapping themselves silly over Melbourne at the start of the year (zomg!!! 6-6-6 rule!! they will dominate!!! top 4 for lyfe!!!!) I think they look a great bet this week against I side (Swans) I think are an outside chance at being bottom 4.
 

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This week I can get Brisbane +37.5 into crows +30.5 for 1.20.

There’s no way I’ll get to 5k haha, I’ll wuss out when I get to 1.
I’ll probably (if I don’t fail) stop after 1k and leave 100 and try and double it with a few 1.20 bets for wine/whisky funds.
At some point the bookie will limit you if you demonstrate continued success. Then you need to change books
 
At some point the bookie will limit you if you demonstrate continued success. Then you to change books

No bookie is going to ban a guy rolling profits on $1.20 PYOL
 
No bookie is going to ban a guy rolling profits on $1.20 PYOL

They would welcome it if they know what your were doing. Statistically the odds of this winning is very remote. The books would wish every punter did this ideally.
 
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3u Jake Lloyd fantasy trio 2 (vs Parker and Kennedy) $1.85 (BE)

Lloyd now in a different level to these two in fantasy, and if Melbourne continue spraying the ball forward like they have been the last few weeks he should see plenty of it. Teams playing Melbourne have had a lot of back half possessions so hopefully translates to plenty for Lloyd.
yeh thats a good one lloyd has gotten over 120 in all of his games so far and if melbourne get as many inside 50s as they have been lloyd could benefit a lot
 
yeh thats a good one lloyd has gotten over 120 in all of his games so far and if melbourne get as many inside 50s as they have been lloyd could benefit a lot

Just be wary of Lloyd as it’s the SCG.

Looks a nice bet though
 
Just be wary of Lloyd as it’s the SCG.

Looks a nice bet though

Melbourne are also terrible at locking it in their forward 50. Lloyd generally gets a lot of his fantasy points from marks and kicks. If Sydney try to exploit Melbourne like other teams have by moving the ball quickly then I can't see as much chipping it around the backline which he thrives on.

But then Parker has been average so far this year and Kennedy is likely to match up on Oliver like he did to Cripps last round. So still a good bet.
 
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